# THE NEXT 15-20 DAYS ... mild and dry



## wxdavid (Dec 22, 2015)

Sometimes as we approach the middle of October we begin to see early signs of winter developing in various portions of the upper Plains or the Great Lakes. However and inking at the various weather models and the pper air patterns sand the various teleconnections and the MJO… there is little chance of any sort of early winter weather events east of the Rockies between now and October 15. Perhaps as late as October 20th. On the other hand, anyone in Alaska or the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies are likely see some snow events between now and the middle of October, especially at the high elevations.

* Image #1 shows the jet stream pattern across North America at 500mb valid Sept 29th.*
I have highlighted the position of hurricane Sam -- that is to say where it is likely to be by Wednesday morning ( which is just N of Puerto Rico). There are two massive troughs in the jet stream -1 located on the West coast extending from British Columbia to Baja California and covering much of the Rockies… and a second Trough which is also quite impressive extending from eastern Canada down the East Coast into the northern Bahamas. In between those two features... there is a massive Ridge or bulge in the jet stream which extends from Arkansas up the Mississippi Valley Valley end into Hudson's Bay Canada… Temperatures in the Plains and the Upper Midwest will reach the mid 90s early in the week.










The Deep trough on East Coast is going to turn hurricane Sam out to sea so it is not going to be a threat for anybody. The massive Trough on the east coast is simply too deep and too powerful for the hurricane to ignore and it will kick the system out to sea. .The Deep Trough on the west coast which extends into the Great Basin in the Rockies will probably drop snow levels down to 6000 feet in some areas by the middle of the week

*Image #2 is the jet stream pattern across North America valid October 2nd.* The big red L off the East coast is the upper air depiction of hurricane Sam and the trough on the East coast is very deep. It has captured Sam and is pulling it due north perhaps threatening Newfoundland Canada by October 4. Meanwhile … a very strong Ridge in the jet stream covers all of the Plains and the Midwest and it extends into Hudson's Bay Canada. The result will be more widespread above normal temperatures or next weekend in all of these areas. Temperature anomalies are likely be 6 to 12 degrees above normal for the next 7 Days in these areas.










*Image #3 shows the overall jet stream pattern valid October 5 * -- note that the overall pattern has not really changed. There is a deep persistent Trough in the jet stream from the Gulf of Alaska into the eastern Pacific Ocean and another one across Southeast Canada into the Western Atlantic Ocean. In between ...we have a broad Ridge covering most of the Plains … the Upper Midwest into south central Canada. ALL of these upper air maps are dry maps with little precipitation and i they are warm -- above normal temperatures in the Plains and the Upper Midwest and south central Canada OCT 5-10










*Image #4 VALID oct 9-10 *shows the trough on the East Coast has finally moved away and this allows the Ridge in the jet stream across the Plains and the Midwest to expand into the Great Lakes and the Northeast US. . This forces the jet stream to stay well north of the US Canada Border east of the Rockies. Meanwhile the trough on the west coast brings some much-needed rain to the Pacific Northwest and California.










*SUMMARY Even though the pattern looks dry and warm for most of the Plains and Midwest, the Northeast, the Great Lakes … and southern Canada for the first half of October don't read too much into it. Besides doing snow forecasting I also do a lot of agricultural forecasting for the US and around the world. ( Agriculture meaning farmers and commodities), September has been a very dry month for most of the Plains and the Midwest and the drought conditions have expanded significantly from the Rockies into the middle portions of the country because of dryness of the pattern. There are several reasons for this but unless somebody really wants to know I think the explanation is a little too much hard science here for this group. *


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## Fourteen Contracting Inc. (Jul 5, 2019)

wxdavid said:


> *There are several reasons for this but unless somebody really wants to know I think the explanation is a little too much hard science here for this group. *


So your capitalist strategy here is to insult everyone's intelligence in an attempt to get them to sign up for your services. I've got to say, brilliant market research. You thoroughly understand this group. I bet all the Jersey guys signed up.


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## Mark Oomkes (Dec 10, 2000)

Fourteen Contracting Inc. said:


> So your capitalist strategy here is to insult everyone's intelligence in an attempt to get them to sign up for your services. I've got to say, brilliant market research. You thoroughly understand this group. I bet all the Jersey guys signed up.


I figured it was fairly simple...coal and cow farts.


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## Fourteen Contracting Inc. (Jul 5, 2019)

Mark Oomkes said:


> I figured it was fairly simple...coal and cow farts.


Can use black for the coal on those colored maps and for the cow farts......










Teal of course


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## Randall Ave (Oct 29, 2014)

Fourteen Contracting Inc. said:


> So your capitalist strategy here is to insult everyone's intelligence in an attempt to get them to sign up for your services. I've got to say, brilliant market research. You thoroughly understand this group. I bet all the Jersey guys signed up.


Hey now, we ain't signen up for nothen over here. Seriously, for being a new guy, he realy likes to go negative at the gate, does he plow snow with a Walter?


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## Hydromaster (Jun 11, 2018)

Who’s graphics do you use?


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## Hydromaster (Jun 11, 2018)

For every day out, a weather forecast loses 10% of its accuracy. That is right, after 10 days it is no better than a guess.


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## Fourteen Contracting Inc. (Jul 5, 2019)

Randall Ave said:


> Hey now, we ain't signen up for nothen over here. Seriously, for being a new guy, he realy likes to go negative at the gate, does he plow snow with a Walter?


Saw his post in the jersey thread earlier in the week. Didn't look like he won anyone over.


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## Mike_PS (Feb 28, 2005)

Ok, if you don't want to converse with another then simply ignore them...and once again, there is NO need to take shots at another member, nor call names, etc.!


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## wxdavid (Dec 22, 2015)

Fourteen Contracting Inc. said:


> So your capitalist strategy here is to insult everyone's intelligence in an attempt to get them to sign up for your services. I've got to say, brilliant market research. You thoroughly understand this group. I bet all the Jersey guys signed up.


 who did I insult?


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## wxdavid (Dec 22, 2015)

Hydromaster said:


> For every day out, a weather forecast loses 10% of its accuracy. That is right, after 10 days it is no better than a guess.


that is actually false

It depends on what you are looking for in a forecast Beyond six or seven days. If you are looking for let's say specific maximum temperatures 9 days from now for say Chicago Illinois… well you are correct - it is not possible to forecast that… at least not yet in the science.

And part of the problem is that if you go to sites like AccuWeather or weather.com they give you these forecasts with temperatures with e precipitation or Cloud icons on your smartphone or on the website.

It's one of the reasons why I do not do and will never do weather apps. Because I don't think they are accurate and most of them are computer-generated. most weather apps are usually pretty good when the weather is comment rank will but when you're dealing with snow storms or hurricanes or a severe weather outbreak the various smartphone weather apps on not very good

But that doesn't mean you can't figure out what the overall pattern is going to be . For example there are distinct patterns in the jet stream that produce or strongly favor Arctic air mass outbreaks or snow storm patterns that impact the Midwest and great lakes or snow storm patterns which impact the East Coast. This is also true for other locations all around the planet so if you know those patterns look like you can tell people ahead of time with some degree of certainty that it looks like it's going to be a significant snow storm in a particular area.


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## Mike_PS (Feb 28, 2005)

stick to discussing weather and not getting personal or taking shots at one another!


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## wxdavid (Dec 22, 2015)

Hydromaster said:


> Who's graphics do you use?


 I use several sites as all private mets

Tropical tidbits
pivotal weather this is gription service not the general stuff
weather models.com
Wxbell.com
Stormvista.com
CMC 
Meteo france MJO plots

Just to name a few


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## Hydromaster (Jun 11, 2018)

wxdavid said:


> that is actually false


In fact, the American Meteorological Society states that "forecast of daily or specific weather conditions do not exhibit useful skill beyond 8 days, meaning the accuracy is low."

But I quoted a scientist .
here I'll quote another one.
"Any forecasts past 8 days when it comes to specific parameters are basically aking to throwing darts at a dartboard.

Ps
Aren't all of the models you use and claim for accuracy, computer generated?


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## Hydromaster (Jun 11, 2018)

Maybe you’re very good at analyzing the dataer.
your dater looks like everybody else is a dater so I’m wondering what you’re putting together that is so unique?

Can you show where your accuracy is far better than the others?


But when I go to your weather page and read your forecasts I come up against all of these political agenda posts you have and I just stop reading. It’s not very Professional and I expect my weather scientist to be a professional.

good luck and Happy Forecasting


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## BossPlow2010 (Sep 29, 2010)

Hydromaster said:


> Maybe you're very good at analyzing the dataer.
> your dater looks like everybody else is a dater so I'm wondering what you're putting together that is so unique?
> 
> Can you show where your accuracy is far better than the others?
> ...


I think a lot of people get that view, there's even a Reddit thread on this. 
But I agree with Hydro, what sets you apart from say, Joe Bastardi?


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## Fourteen Contracting Inc. (Jul 5, 2019)

wxdavid said:


> who did I insult?


Here, you're insulting Mark



wxdavid said:


> what sort of Nutcase cite NATURAL news as s valid source of science information?
> 
> AMRK you do Understand what and how science works right ?





wxdavid said:


> Idiot reasoning mark. Come on dude.
> you cannot be this obtuse


Here you're insulting Michael Moore, though I don't think you'll get much blowback from members here



wxdavid said:


> MICHAEL MOORE?
> 
> who cares what that tub of crap says or thinks?


Here you're insulting Andy



wxdavid said:


> that clever... but its not the same thing genius


And I think you were insulting the suburbanite on this one



wxdavid said:


> i Know facts dont matter to folks like you


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## wxdavid (Dec 22, 2015)

_what sort of Nutcase cite NATURAL news as s valid source of science information? _ -- 
I was asking if Mark was a nutcase. NATURAL news is NOT a legit science web site

=========

_Idiot reasoning mark. Come on dude.
you cannot be this obtuse_

saying someone IS an idiot is an insult.
Saying someone is using idiotic reasoning NOT an insult.

=======

_ tub of crap _refers to Michael Moore the filmmaker

==========

_that clever... but its not the same thing genius_
wow... how is THAT an insult?

================

_i Know facts dont matter to folks like you_
Ok that was an insult.
but I said that *after *comments were made about meteorologists in a political thread which is way off base and totally unfair


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## wxdavid (Dec 22, 2015)

Let's be clear about this … 
Comment that say _"all weathermen suck_" or " _they are just guessing" _ or _"they don't know what they are doing" _is an insult.

And comments saying that all scientists are bought off … _that you don't need to follow the Science you need to follow the money _ -- a comment somebody made yesterday in the political section -- IS a direct and professional insult upon all scientists of which I am one.


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## FlakePusher (Sep 15, 2021)

early signs of Winter in October. Now that's something I can get behind. Profound.


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## Fourteen Contracting Inc. (Jul 5, 2019)

wxdavid said:


> _what sort of Nutcase cite NATURAL news as s valid source of science information? _ --
> I was asking if Mark was a nutcase. NATURAL news is NOT a legit science web site
> 
> =========
> ...


You asked me to show you where you were being insulting. I did that for you.

Here are a few more examples of people commenting on you being insulting....



Ice-sage said:


> @wxdavid
> 
> I strongly suggest you read the TOS(terms of service) the policies and rules to be a member here with posting priveledges.
> 
> There is not necessarily freedom of speech here on plowsite. You have attacked almost everyone you have replied or posted to in just a matter of hours. The tolerance police will show their head sooner or later.





Michael J. Donovan said:


> @wxdavid, you are more than welcome to post here on the site again and offer your opinions, etc. However, DO NOT post personal attacks or call other members names, etc


Do you have enough evidence that you're insulting people? Or would you like me to draw you a map with colors?


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## Mike_PS (Feb 28, 2005)

If you guys want to continue taking shots at one another then this thread will be closed and those who can't stop can have their accounts suspended...asked several times now, this will be the last


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## wxdavid (Dec 22, 2015)

Hydromaster said:


> In fact, the American Meteorological Society states that "forecast of daily or specific weather conditions do not exhibit useful skill beyond 8 days, meaning the accuracy is low."
> 
> But I quoted a scientist .
> here I'll quote another one.
> ...


 did You read what I actually said?
I gather from your comments here you did not.

let me restate what you missed

_It depends on what you are looking for in a forecast Beyond six or seven days. I*f you are looking for let's say specific maximum temperatures 9 days from now for say Chicago Illinois… well you are correct - it is not possible to forecast that… at least not yet in the science.*

.....
But that doesn't mean you can't figure out what the overall pattern is going to be. For example there are distinct patterns in the jet stream that produce or strongly favor Arctic air mass outbreaks or snow storm patterns that impact the Midwest and great lakes or snow storm patterns which impact the East Coast. This is also true for other locations all around the planet so if you know those patterns look like you can tell people ahead of time with some degree of certainty that it looks like it's going to be a significant snow storm in a particular area._


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## wxdavid (Dec 22, 2015)

BossPlow2010 said:


> I think a lot of people get that view, there's even a Reddit thread on this.
> But I agree with Hydro, what sets you apart from say, Joe Bastardi?


I can give you some inside baseball information if you a're interested. JB Gets direct funding off of his website and his advertising so his consistent hyping of major events.

for example this past hurricane season a few weeks ago he predicted that minimal category 1 hurricane ELSA was going to be the next hurricane Katrina.

And then he did the same sort of thing a few weeks later.

Even today continues to insist that hurricane Sam is a threat to the Southeastern US Coast when all the data clearly shows it is not going to be a threat and will be turned out to see all the time it reaches 68 rows 70 degrees west longitude.

I don't have any advertising on my website and I have no advertising on my Facebook page. That doesn't make me right but when I am wrong it' is not because I am hyping something … it's because I am simply wrong


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## wxdavid (Dec 22, 2015)

Hydromaster said:


> Maybe you're very good at analyzing the dataer.
> your dater looks like everybody else is a dater so I'm wondering what you're putting together that is so unique?
> 
> Can you show where your accuracy is far better than the others?
> ...


* sorry but you are just flat out lying. *

There are NO political comments of any kind on my website.

Please produce evidence to show what you claim to be are a large number of constant political post /comments on my website or FB page

what you just said is seriously legally false


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## Mark Oomkes (Dec 10, 2000)

wxdavid said:


> On the other hand, anyone in Alaska or the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies are likely see some snow events between now and the middle of October, especially at the high elevations.


Wow...this is some breaking news...especially since it's already happened in those areas.



wxdavid said:


> Sometimes as we approach the middle of October we begin to see early signs of winter developing in various portions of the upper Plains or the Great Lakes.


So when we are actually approaching the middle of October we will get an update? My calendar says we're approaching the beginning of October.

Also, the chances of snow in 90% of the Great Lakes in mid-October would be historic, as in unheard of. Sure, some snow showers or snowflakes, but other than the UP it just doesn't get cold enough long enough for it to stick more than a few hours.



wxdavid said:


> who did I insult?


You were in navel intelligence and you don't know who you insulted?



wxdavid said:


> NATURAL news is NOT a legit science web site


Sez hoo?



wxdavid said:


> Comment that say _"all weathermen suck_" or " _they are just guessing" _ or _"they don't know what they are doing" _is an insult.


Fact is they are guessing, based on data. And since that data changes...ACCORDING TO YOU...they are guessing.

A good number of them are directed more by ratings than facts. And if the ratings aren't there, they are fired. So the weather is hyped. Another fact.



wxdavid said:


> And comments saying that all scientists are bought off … _that you don't need to follow the Science you need to follow the money _ -- a comment somebody made yesterday in the political section -- IS a direct and professional insult upon all scientists of which I am one.


This is also factual. Don't like it, get out of the kitchen. Ratings drives news and forecasts.

Anyways, my forecast is it will be cooling down in October in the Northern Hemisphere. Likelihood of frost and snow will continue to increase and move southerly throughout Nov-Feb. Then it will gradually warm up again.


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## cwren2472 (Aug 15, 2014)

Mark Oomkes said:


> Anyways, my forecast is it will be cooling down in October in the Northern Hemisphere. Likelihood of frost and snow will continue to increase and move southerly throughout Nov-Feb. Then it will gradually warm up again.


Fact check?


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## Mark Oomkes (Dec 10, 2000)

PS Pro Tip for @wxdavid : Spelling matters to some of us dumb, non-sciency types. That first paragraph that was not C&Ped from someone else is almost impossible to read with the number of typos in there.


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## Mark Oomkes (Dec 10, 2000)

It's snowing in Alaska.

https://www.woodtv.com/weather/snow-comes-to-alaska/
_Fairbanks has had at least a trace of snow on five of the last 7 days and hasn't had a day warmer than average in the last two weeks._


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1442280156626751493

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1442316612015513601
It' s almost like winter is coming to the Northern Hemisphere.


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## cwren2472 (Aug 15, 2014)

Mark Oomkes said:


> It's snowing in Alaska.


So, you're saying his prediction was right...?


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## Mark Oomkes (Dec 10, 2000)

Sure


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## Hydromaster (Jun 11, 2018)

wxdavid said:


> * sorry but you are just flat out lying. *
> 
> There are NO political comments of any kind on my website.
> 
> ...


https://mobile.twitter.com/WxRiskGrains
I never said fb and your Twitter is on the web.


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## BUFF (Dec 24, 2009)

Mark Oomkes said:


> It's snowing in Alaska.
> 
> https://www.woodtv.com/weather/snow-comes-to-alaska/
> _Fairbanks has had at least a trace of snow on five of the last 7 days and hasn't had a day warmer than average in the last two weeks._
> ...


Had few inches of snow September 8, 2020 and had close to a foot of snow October 25, 2020.... Just another day in the Rockies...


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## Mark Oomkes (Dec 10, 2000)

BUFF said:


> Had few inches of snow September 8, 2020 and had close to a foot of snow October 25, 2020.... Just another day in the Rockies...


So, you're saying his prediction was right...?


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## Mark Oomkes (Dec 10, 2000)

Hydromaster said:


> https://mobile.twitter.com/WxRiskGrains
> I never said fb and your Twitter is on the web.


I took a peak at his BookofFaces page and yes, there are a lot of political posts there as well.


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## Hydromaster (Jun 11, 2018)

You mentioned your Facebook so I went and took a look 
https://m.facebook.com/WxRisk/
In your first rant
"People who think the election of 2020 was stolen are not misinformed. 
They are stupid. 
And what is even worse is that they are PROUD they are stupid. "


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## wxdavid (Dec 22, 2015)

FlakePusher said:


> early signs of Winter in October. Now that's something I can get behind. Profound.


 actually I said there were no early signs of winter


Hydromaster said:


> You mentioned your Facebook so I went and took a look
> https://m.facebook.com/WxRisk/
> In your first rant
> "People who think the election of 2020 was stolen are not misinformed.
> ...


Yesterday you claimed that* my website* -- not my Facebook page but my website was filled with numerous political posts from me and little if any science or weather.

That is a lie. 
All one has to do is go over to the actual website and see that that's not true.

So….. now tyou have changed your story to the Facebook page.

But even there you continue to insist that the Facebook page has NO science on it … and that it' is filled with numerous political posts.

.
The comment that you sighted is at the end of a long list of other comments about ME personal views and has nothing to do with the science or the weather or forecasts.

You are confusing -- I suspect at this point intentionally because nobody's actually this obtuse -- with my personal background information about who I am on the Facebook page with the actual science.

The background page information about me has nothing to do with my science on my weather forecasting or my skillset for the different services that I offer.

In fact if you care to look around the FB you will see I have a strict rule NO political posts of any kind are allowed by anyone-- which is why the FB page has almost 300,000 followers

But that's okay ...You have the right to continue to lie if you want ... but dude I got to tell you…. if you don't know the difference between Facebook and website …. well you are going to have issues in the rest of the 21st Century


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## Mike_PS (Feb 28, 2005)

last chance to keep the discussion on topic, everyone!


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## wxdavid (Dec 22, 2015)

HYDRO ...since you cant seem to find AMY weather posts on the FB page here are a few




__ https://www.facebook.com/WxRisk/posts/4389442914436266






__ https://www.facebook.com/WxRisk/posts/4382179825162575






__ https://www.facebook.com/WxRisk/posts/4382146378499253






__ https://www.facebook.com/WxRisk/posts/4378588388855052






__ https://www.facebook.com/WxRisk/posts/4368303533216871






__ https://www.facebook.com/WxRisk/posts/4366625503384674


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## Hydromaster (Jun 11, 2018)

Nice day. 
business fb vs private fb

the sun is predicted to continue to orbit the earth.

Whatever color you wish to paint it it is still you posting using your professional moniker.

true.
Moving on.

so how’s the weather. 
Do you have any answers incite as to my layman’s questions on co2 levels?


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## cwren2472 (Aug 15, 2014)

Hydromaster said:


> the sun is predicted to continue to orbit the earth.


Fact check? Cuz I think you have that back-

Nevermind. It rose again. Carry on.


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## Mark Oomkes (Dec 10, 2000)

cwren2472 said:


> Fact check? Cuz I think you have that back-
> 
> Nevermind. It rose again. Carry on.


You just don't believe any of us, do you?

First tourism in Bermuda, then crickets and now the sun.

You really are a science denier, aren't you?


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## Randall Ave (Oct 29, 2014)

Mark Oomkes said:


> You just don't believe any of us, do you?
> 
> First tourism in Bermuda, then crickets and now the sun.
> 
> You really are a science denier, aren't you?


I've got some clouds and rain, but if ya look the other direction, kinda sunny, beats all logic to me.


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## Mark Oomkes (Dec 10, 2000)

Randall Ave said:


> I've got some clouds and rain, but if ya look the other direction, kinda sunny, beats all logic to me.


Sun is always shining in Meatchicken...just some days there are copious amounts of clouds in the way.


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## Randall Ave (Oct 29, 2014)

Mark Oomkes said:


> Sun is always shining in Meatchicken...just some days there are copious amounts of clouds in the way.


Now my phone is telling me rain in 76 minutes, it may be mild, but I guess it will be wet.


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## Hydromaster (Jun 11, 2018)

cwren2472 said:


> Fact check? Cuz I think you have that back-
> 
> Nevermind. It rose again. Carry on.


Yes 
There was a fallow up post but it got pulled


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## Hydromaster (Jun 11, 2018)

https://mobile.twitter.com/David_Tolleris/with_replieshttps://mobile.twitter.com/David_Tolleris


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## cwren2472 (Aug 15, 2014)

It's raining right now. I feel like I was lied to about the 20 days of dry weather.


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## Mike_PS (Feb 28, 2005)

everyone done trolling the OP? a little back and forth, etc. is fine, but no need for the constant attempts to take shots. you can always choose the "ignore" feature

thanks, I would appreciate it...


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## jonniesmooth (Dec 5, 2008)

wxdavid said:


> Let's be clear about this …
> Comment that say _"all weathermen suck_" or " _they are just guessing" _ or _"they don't know what they are doing" _is an insult.
> 
> And comments saying that all scientists are bought off … _that you don't need to follow the Science you need to follow the money _ -- a comment somebody made yesterday in the political section -- IS a direct and professional insult upon all scientists of which I am one.


Noted.


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