# Nov 20-22 NORTHEAST significant snowstorm?



## cjasonbr (Nov 18, 2005)

Take a look at this!!! What a way to start this would be!










http://www.accuweather.com/mt-news-blogs.asp?partner=accuweather&blog=meteomadness


----------



## bribrius (May 5, 2007)

yeah. i was looking at accuweather earlier.
I try not to put much faith in it though because its still a ways out and the predictions get worse the further away they are.
It would be nice to have a little snow..


----------



## highlander316 (Oct 18, 2006)

that would be nice, maybe at least a salting event here? But that's still just over a week away.


----------



## tls22 (Sep 30, 2007)

Looks nice if it shifted about 50 miles west, but i would not hold me breath! The gfs model long range is horrible! The 00z run will prob not even have the storm!:crying:


----------



## iceyman (Mar 1, 2007)

tls22;633569 said:


> The 00z run will prob not even have the storm!:crying:


soo wheres that map timmy


----------



## tls22 (Sep 30, 2007)

iceyman;633572 said:


> soo wheres that map timmy


That model run does not start until 1030, and that storm is around hr200 so around 1100pm


----------



## 06HD BOSS (Nov 28, 2005)

thatd be great. looks like CT would be getting bombed. except the around the 20th ill still be doing cleanups...oh well


----------



## tls22 (Sep 30, 2007)

06HD BOSS;633768 said:


> thatd be great. looks like CT would be getting bombed. except the around the 20th ill still be doing cleanups...oh well


Perhaps you should have not went on vacation! If that storm came tru, and took that track none of us would get snow. Its to far off shore. It would be a blizzard for the fish!


----------



## 06HD BOSS (Nov 28, 2005)

tls22;633774 said:


> Perhaps you should have not went on vacation! If that storm came tru, and took that track none of us would get snow. Its to far off shore. It would be a blizzard for the fish!


im confused...because the map shows "snowstorm" over our area? what track are you talking about


----------



## tls22 (Sep 30, 2007)

06HD BOSS;633790 said:


> im confused...because the map shows "snowstorm" over our area? what track are you talking about


Dave the green is preciep, look threw the blue! Do you see any green preciep over you? The light green is close to us, but that is just .1 of a inch. Which in return is a few flurries for the shore line!


----------



## Young Pup (Aug 13, 2004)

That same storm is something I hinted about hitting us about the same time in the Ohio winter thread. Model runs are all over the place on this storm Wait until Sat and Sun and look at the models again.


----------



## 06HD BOSS (Nov 28, 2005)

tls22;633800 said:


> Dave the green is preciep, look threw the blue! Do you see any green preciep over you? The light green is close to us, but that is just .1 of a inch. Which in return is a few flurries for the shore line!


hmmm yeah i guess i see that now. ive always heard there has to be a minimum of 6" predicted for it to be called a "snowstorm". im not planning for anything, so whatever happens, happens


----------



## tls22 (Sep 30, 2007)

06HD BOSS;633940 said:


> hmmm yeah i guess i see that now. ive always heard there has to be a minimum of 6" predicted for it to be called a "snowstorm". im not planning for anything, so whatever happens, happens


Thats criteria for weather alerts...i believe my area 1-5 is a winter weather advisory event, and 6 or more is a winter storm warning!


----------



## captfudd (Jan 11, 2003)

Highly doubtful this will happen especially with the ocean still being in the upper 50's, give it a couple more weeks after some colder air has been around to cool things off and then send this our way and it's game on! :redbounce


----------



## cjasonbr (Nov 18, 2005)

"4. I placed an area of snow across the Great Lakes into the East on the long range. The big story will be how cold it will get next week. Another round of lake-effect snow will occur. The question becomes, can we get the coastal storm to form and throw snow back into the cold air? The models yesterday had the storm, but have backed off. Okay, so that's the normal way things work. I still think the trough will dig in and become negative tilted, which will lead to a storm develop off of Virginia. That storms will pull northeast and it will snow all the way down to the I-95 corridor. That's not hype, it is just the possibility of what I see happening."

http://www.accuweather.com/mt-news-blogs.asp?partner=accuweather&blog=meteomadness


----------



## BSDeality (Dec 5, 2005)

it had better not snow! we've still got thousands of $$ worth of fall cleanups to do, i'm still down a truck, still have to get people to sign-off the new service agreements and stake all the drives! Better get my arse in gear here.


----------



## 06HD BOSS (Nov 28, 2005)

BSDeality;634574 said:


> it had better not snow! we've still got thousands of $$ worth of fall cleanups to do, i'm still down a truck, still have to get people to sign-off the new service agreements and stake all the drives! Better get my arse in gear here.


yeah man! get off the computer and get going!


----------



## Mysticlandscape (Jan 19, 2006)

No way we need two more weeks to finish clean-ups


----------



## basher (Nov 13, 2004)

1989, we pushed 8 inches Thanksgiving day. Water was to warm, ground tempature to high, it snowed anyway.


----------



## mike33087 (Feb 9, 2005)

*lol*



Mysticlandscape;634799 said:


> No way we need two more weeks to finish clean-ups


i agree but who knows round here


----------



## Potomac Lawns (Jan 28, 2004)

We are ready for it but I doubt we will get anything, only time will tell though


----------



## cjasonbr (Nov 18, 2005)

"3. The longer range is becoming a little more confusing to me. Not that I still don't think a storm is coming, it's a matter of timing. Is it the storm on Nov. 18 or 22 that does the dirty work. The latest GFS and Euro are now hoping on the storm on Nov. 18 (Tue.), while I have been thinking it's a storm on Nov. 22. It may turn out that I am right, but for the wrong reasons, and that it tries to snow Tuesday; as the third trough digs in at the end of the week, light snow will break out all the way to the coast anyway. With that said, next week will be much colder than normal in much of the East, with opportunity for snows from the Great Lakes to the mid-Atlantic."

MeteoMadness.accuweather.com


----------



## SNOWANDICEMAN (Sep 11, 2007)

*Dont look like boston will get it*

DOESN'T LOOK LIKE BOSTON WILL GET MUCH OF ANYTHING FROM THAT ONE ON THE 22ND OF NOVEMBER THAT'S ARE LUCK HERE IN BOSTON RAIN AND RAIN.


----------



## FordFisherman (Dec 5, 2007)

The overall pattern looks good but the weathermen can't even forecast 36 hours ahead with accuracy so getting pumped up about possible weather scenarios 7 days out is futile at this point. Cold air will supposedly be in place; hopefully the rest will fall into place.


----------



## cjasonbr (Nov 18, 2005)

*It's Back!*

It's Back! GFS Goes to the East Snowstorm Theory...

LATE-WEEK STORM SHOWS UP ON THE 12Z RUN ON THE GFS... DGEX MODEL ELUDES TO THE STORM TOO... WILL THE EURO COME AROUND TOO?... NEW ENGLAND HAS A SHOT AT SNOW TUESDAY...

I hope this is not just a glitch in the GFS and that the GFS is finally seeing the storm potential that I have eluded to all week for late in the week. I know it's been a confusing situation with the first clipper that comes Tuesday and Wednesday followed by the storm potential on the 22nd, but I finally have the sense that the models are starting to see what is really going to happen as per my previous blog entries on the possible late-week storm this week. I will say that I have trusted the GFS forecast for days 5 and 6. What I mean by that, I have noticed that the forecast for storms made 5-6 days in advance have verified very well while the days 3-4 forecast tend to loose the storm, only to find it again within two days of the storm. I like what I am seeing on the GFS where the second trough digs farther south and forms a storm along the coast. I also sense that the GFS sees the storm in the Gulf of Alaska this morning and is able to take the storm through the flow and bring it to the East Coast by the end of the week. A storm like the one shown on the image below would bomb out along the coast, and parts of the Northeast into New England would be buried in a foot of snow. It would also be a substantial snow event back into the Appalachians if the path of the storm as shown occurs. If a deviation of the path occurs, the snows could easily be along the I-95 corridor from D.C. to Boston. I just hope this is not a glitch...

Now, we still have the clipper coming southeastward Monday into Tuesday. Light snow and rain showers are spreading through the Midwest and Great Lakes this afternoon. We will see some light snow even through the Appalachians north of southern West Virginia Monday night. Once that clipper hits the coast, it will produce low pressure off the coast. The question becomes, will it develop close enough to the coast to throw some light snow back into eastern New England Tuesday. I think it will be close and folks out on the Cape have a better chance to see some. In any case, the clipper brings another shot of cold air into the East and many folks will see snow showers north of a line from Richmond to Louisville to eastern Iowa this week. Lake-effect snows will be quite heavy in the western NY, NW PA, NE OH, Western MI and Ontario in the normal west-northwest flow lake-effect situations...

Lots of cool stuff happening this week, so stay tuned...










Meteomadness.accuweather.com


----------



## Potomac Lawns (Jan 28, 2004)

Well hopefully it does come down to DC but i doubt it


----------



## JPMAKO (Dec 10, 2003)

We will all know more by about 10:00PM
The latest run of the models 18Z is pretty much useless.
I would also look towards the middle of next week for some activity.

Jason


----------



## RepoMan207 (Oct 7, 2008)

I need another week....plow is still in the paint shop. This is what I get for procrastinating over the summer months.


----------



## cjasonbr (Nov 18, 2005)

18z GFS Comment

Anyway, the 18z run of the run of the GFS shifted the storm to the east and south and takes the snows in the big cities.. Yea for you... But keep in mind, we will be going through the normal shifting of the storm here and there and it may turn out that the model goes back to the original no go Joe with the storm. In any case, it will be fun to watch and see what happens...

Oh, did I tell you that we may have to go through this all over again Thanksgiving week.. more on that storm later...

MeteoMadness.accuweather.com

Thanksgiving week eh?


----------



## sir spaniourd (Jan 7, 2005)

it wasn't that bad when i guessed we would have a plowable storm on the 19th. just 2 days off. I don't care about the date, but just so we can all plow at least after 7 months:bluebounc


----------



## JBMiller616 (Dec 12, 2007)

cjasonbr;638578 said:


> Thanksgiving week eh?


I'll be in FL Thanksgiving week.......


----------



## F250 Boss v (Feb 1, 2008)

We have a Lake Affect Snow Advisory in effect up until 4 PM today, in Central New York. Some could get up to 10", while others may see 3 to 7". Old Forge NY already has 10" on the ground! Put the plow on as we may get up to 7" at home. -Will have to wait and see how accurate they are!


----------



## F250 Boss v (Feb 1, 2008)

Well, it's snowing now...


----------



## 06HD BOSS (Nov 28, 2005)

JBMiller616;638669 said:


> I'll be in FL Thanksgiving week.......


dont worry ill take care of your accounts


----------



## JBMiller616 (Dec 12, 2007)

06HD BOSS;639119 said:


> dont worry ill take care of your accounts


LOL.....thats fine. It'll be nice to have one last taste of warmer weather before the season starts.


----------



## grinch1989 (Oct 18, 2005)

Today's 12z run shows a very suppressed pattern giving only the fish our 11/22 storm. :crying:


----------



## F250 Boss v (Feb 1, 2008)

Snow has fizzled out here (Utica), folks to the north of us got some, but so far nothing really here. Now the sun is coming out now, -go figure...


----------



## cjasonbr (Nov 18, 2005)

In the longer range, the GFS is going through the normal days 3 and 4, I lost the storm idea. We have seen the GFS do this many times before when it senses a storm coming, shows it days 5 and 6, and loses it days 3 and 4 only to show it again days 1 and 2. I am thinking that if the system coming through the northern Pacific can phase with the trough, we can get our storm to develop as shown on the GFS for Saturday. I will be curious to see what the next couple of days hold. For me, I am not giving up the idea of a storm coming late this week followed by another storm next week. Honestly, I have not studied the storm next week because right now I have stuck my neck out for the past week on the storm idea for late in the week that I want to concentrate on that first before I start looking at the storm for next week. There's big implications for the Saturday storm considering Penn State plays Michigan State here at 3:30 p.m., and I can only imagine what I mess it would be with snow.


MeteoMadness.accuweather.com


----------



## grinch1989 (Oct 18, 2005)

FWIW, the Euro does not have your storm either, it then relaxes the cold early next week to then shows an awesome pattern setting up around day 10. Storminess continues to always be 10 days away!


----------



## Young Pup (Aug 13, 2004)

cjasonbr;639381 said:


> In the longer range, the GFS is going through the normal days 3 and 4, I lost the storm idea. We have seen the GFS do this many times before when it senses a storm coming, shows it days 5 and 6, and loses it days 3 and 4 only to show it again days 1 and 2. I am thinking that if the system coming through the northern Pacific can phase with the trough, we can get our storm to develop as shown on the GFS for Saturday. I will be curious to see what the next couple of days hold. For me, I am not giving up the idea of a storm coming late this week followed by another storm next week. Honestly, I have not studied the storm next week because right now I have stuck my neck out for the past week on the storm idea for late in the week that I want to concentrate on that first before I start looking at the storm for next week. There's big implications for the Saturday storm considering Penn State plays Michigan State here at 3:30 p.m., and I can only imagine what I mess it would be with snow.
> 
> 
> MeteoMadness.accuweather.com


And if does reappear on the 18z we could have a snow bowl of 08 between Ohio State and Michigan, just like 1950. That would be sweet. Madman Henry you have to love him.


----------



## cjasonbr (Nov 18, 2005)

Yup, Henry's the best. I love following him as he's tracking 'big daddy's'. It's funny how he tracks them for over a week and the local weather people pick it up 2 days out and say, "oh, look at this, we may get some snow!!".


----------



## PlowingRedneck (Nov 26, 2007)

Im not even hooked up yet. I know its suppose to be darn right chilly this whole week. The temp went from 36 to 33 in the matter of 6 mins. Hope we get something before thanksgiving


----------



## sir spaniourd (Jan 7, 2005)

we will get some. so far we have had a storm almost every week. look at NY. they already had a decent amount of storms and it is only the middle of November. This is going to be an awesome season...


----------



## sgtsampay (Nov 17, 2008)

I hope so....


----------



## JBMiller616 (Dec 12, 2007)

Aaaaaand the Wish Casting begins.......

You guys should read Henry's blog today. Pretty funny.


----------



## JBMiller616 (Dec 12, 2007)

http://www.accuweather.com/mt-news-...house_is_a_four_letter_word_the_antihenry.asp


----------



## iceyman (Mar 1, 2007)

its gonna be another miserable winter


----------



## TurbDies2500 (Oct 15, 2007)

I am crossing my fingers. That would be nice to get a little storm before Turkey Day.


----------



## cjasonbr (Nov 18, 2005)

*Damn*

As for this weekend, I am at the point where the towel is getting thrown in on the speculation of a storm. All models are in agreement that it's just cold across much of the East. If you are planning to come up to State College for the Penn State game this weekend, make sure you have snow tires on, given that snow squalls will be around and the roads could get coated with snow Saturday. It will be cold with temperatures in the 20s for the game...

METEOMADNESS.ACCUWEATHER.COM


----------



## tjlands (Sep 29, 2005)

Plowing for 20 years and I have never seen plowable snow in Nov in Central and southern NJ. 
It would definately be "found money".


----------



## grinch1989 (Oct 18, 2005)

Next threat rolls in Mon/Tues of next week. Taken verbatim, this run is snow for many away from the coast (NW of I84, N of I90) for New England. Still plenty of time to change, but most other models agree with this one, different than the last when the GFS was on its own.


----------



## sir spaniourd (Jan 7, 2005)

that is mix rain and snow for MA/CT, isn't it?


----------



## iceyman (Mar 1, 2007)

sir spaniourd;642155 said:


> that is mix rain and snow for MA/CT, isn't it?


pretty sure the colors are intensity not what type of percip....i maybe wrong tho


----------



## grinch1989 (Oct 18, 2005)

sir spaniourd;642155 said:


> that is mix rain and snow for MA/CT, isn't it?


The colors are the intensity of the precipitation. That shows a quick hit of snow before quickly changing to rain for everyone except western mass and northwest ct. Still days out though...


----------

