# NOAA releases winter outlook



## Mark Oomkes (Dec 10, 2000)

*WEST MICHIGAN - *Each season the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration (or NOAA) releases their long range outlook. This time, it has just been released for the winter months of December, January, and February. These long range forecasters and climatologists are highlighting a La Nina pattern that will dominate our weather here in the Great Lakes through those months.
In short, they say Michigan has about a 40 percent chance of warmer-than-normal temperatures in the deep winter months. Keep in mind, it doesn't mean that everyday and each week will be above normal, but on average (overall), there is scientific evidence and patterns setting up that leads NOAA to believe those months for Michigan may be slightly above normal. The best chance of above normal temperatures will reside over the Gulf Coast, Southeast, and Florida. See their map below.









CPC NOAA

In their precipitation outlook for December, January, and February, NOAA is projecting wetter-than-average moisture for Michigan. In fact, there is a bulls-eye of about 50 percent of above normal temperatures for those months. Drier than normal conditions are likely in the Southeast, Florida, and the Southwest. You can see the outlook and map below.









CPC NOAA

We mentioned La Nina. If you didn't know, similar to the popular term El Nino, these are both upper level air patterns that tend to drive weather over the long term. While El Nino is warmer-than-normal ocean water along the equatorial regions in the Pacific, La Nina is colder-than-normal ocean water in the same region. These water temperatures can/do change or drive patterns that force upper level trough (dips) and upper level ridges (bubbles) in our jetstream. Weather systems typically follow these upper level jetstream winds when tracking across the country. As you can see from the NOAA image below, a typical La Nina forces a pattern that favors slightly warmer temperatures and above normal precipitation for Michigan.









NOAA La Nina

If you'd like to read the complete meteorological analysis and NOAA discussion, you can *click here. *We expect to experience fall-like temperatures this weekend with more rain arriving Sunday into Monday. You can get the complete West Michigan forecast at *www.fox17online.com/weather. *


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## Mark Oomkes (Dec 10, 2000)

Wish I was a scientist and not some fact denying idiot. Cuz based on the projected jet stream, I have no idea how the Great Lakes could have a 40% of a warmer than normal winter.


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## Mark Oomkes (Dec 10, 2000)

https://www.climate.gov/WinterOutlook2021


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## Hydromaster (Jun 11, 2018)




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## Ajlawn1 (Aug 20, 2009)

Meh... let me know when you get some polar vortex dates...


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## Mark Oomkes (Dec 10, 2000)

I don't date polar vortexes.


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## BUFF (Dec 24, 2009)

Mark Oomkes said:


> I don't date polar vortexes.


Married one?


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## BUFF (Dec 24, 2009)

Mark Oomkes said:


> Wish I was a scientist and not some fact denying idiot. Cuz based on the projected jet stream, I have no idea how the Great Lakes could have a 40% of a warmer than normal winter.


Ewe have to Noah guy....


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## Western1 (Dec 4, 2008)

Or is it NOAA guy?


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## BUFF (Dec 24, 2009)

Western1 said:


> Or is it NOAA guy?


That's his metric cousin


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## Western1 (Dec 4, 2008)

I think he’s Canadian


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## Mr.Markus (Jan 7, 2010)

Mark Oomkes said:


> I don't date polar vortexes.


Bi polar...? Ive met a few, plow for a few as well.


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## Mark Oomkes (Dec 10, 2000)

Mr.Markus said:


> Bi polar...? Ive met a few, plow a few as well.


Nevermind...


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## wxdavid (Dec 22, 2015)




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## Mark Oomkes (Dec 10, 2000)

Isn't that what I posted?


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## BUFF (Dec 24, 2009)

Mark Oomkes said:


> Isn't that what I posted?


Clear case of Plagiarism....


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## Kvston (Nov 30, 2019)

Mark Oomkes said:


> Isn't that what I posted?


But he posted it again. Must be better.


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## Mark Oomkes (Dec 10, 2000)

Kvston said:


> But he posted it again. Must be better.


More sciency?


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## Kvston (Nov 30, 2019)

Hey @Mark Oomkes he "followed" the science ha ha ha.


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## DeVries (Nov 27, 2007)

Polar vortex = fluffy snow. I'm game.


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## Hydromaster (Jun 11, 2018)

"bomb cyclone"


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## Randall Ave (Oct 29, 2014)

Hydromaster said:


> "bomb cyclone"


It's coming.


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## Ajlawn1 (Aug 20, 2009)

Randall Ave said:


> It's coming.


When?


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## stainlessman (Nov 1, 2011)

Here in southern Maine we haven't even had a frost yet.
Possibly tonight.
The coldest night we've had is 37*f
Headed out crossbow hunting here shortly its 43* at 6:30 am.


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## Western1 (Dec 4, 2008)

Ajlawn1 said:


> When?


es


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## Kvston (Nov 30, 2019)

stainlessman said:


> Here in southern Maine we haven't even had a frost yet.
> Possibly tonight.
> The coldest night we've had is 37*f
> Headed out crossbow hunting here shortly its 43* at 6:30 am.


36 here in the Adirondacks. Opening morning of gun season. Frost Monday night?


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## Randall Ave (Oct 29, 2014)

Ajlawn1 said:


> When?


Soon, my weather rock is already wet this morning, mostly cause all my work is outside today.


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## Mark Oomkes (Dec 10, 2000)

stainlessman said:


> Here in southern Maine we haven't even had a frost yet.
> Possibly tonight.
> The coldest night we've had is 37*f
> Headed out crossbow hunting here shortly its 43* at 6:30 am.


Supposedly 34° tonight...coldest so far.


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## LapeerLandscape (Dec 29, 2012)

34 tonight here also, then starting tomorrow night into monday another inch of rain.


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## Ajlawn1 (Aug 20, 2009)

LapeerLandscape said:


> 34 tonight here also, then starting tomorrow night into monday another inch of rain.


They had some futures possibly showing 2" here and up to 3-4" a county or two South. Also said some models showed it further North...


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## LapeerLandscape (Dec 29, 2012)

Ajlawn1 said:


> They had some futures possibly showing 2" here and up to 3-4" a county or two South. Also said some models showed it further North...


When I first read this I read the showing as snowing and was thinking uh oh, then I read it again. I actually think the 2 to 3 inches of snow would be better than the rain.


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## Kvston (Nov 30, 2019)

Frost twice this week and Lowe’s projected to get into the high 20’s end of next week. Salting before Thanksgiving looks inevitable. Not sure how I feel about that with how much is still on my job board…


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## stainlessman (Nov 1, 2011)

Weather changing some now. We had 6'' of rain with a Nor'Easter two weeks ago. IF it was December we'd be buried for weeks in snow. 20* here this morning. Good hunting weather. Local weatherman every forecast seems to mention 'climate change '.
Whither it be to warm or bad storms like our 6'' of rain or lobsters not crawling in shallow water. Climate change. Killington in Vermont is open to sking. So natural snow must follow soon.


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## Hydromaster (Jun 11, 2018)




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## Hydromaster (Jun 11, 2018)




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## Mark Oomkes (Dec 10, 2000)

Hydromaster said:


> View attachment 227415


Other than February this one was pretty accurate.


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## Hydromaster (Jun 11, 2018)

Mark Oomkes said:


> Other than February this one was pretty accurate.


Other than it's for last winter :laugh:


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## Mark Oomkes (Dec 10, 2000)

Hydromaster said:


> Other than it's for last winter :laugh:


I know...hence using the past tense verb "was".


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## Hydromaster (Jun 11, 2018)

Santa must’ve stopped by your place early this year.


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## FordFisherman (Dec 5, 2007)

Guess that’s better than sleets of sheet….


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