# First **POSSIBLE** significant snow of the season OCT 12-13 for ID MT WY UT COL



## wxdavid (Dec 22, 2015)

I'm just posting to let you all know that there is a good possibility of the first significant snowfall the season in the Western u.s. on October 12-13 in the elevated or mountainous areas of Idaho Utah Western Central Colorado much of Wyoming and a good portion of Montana. As is usually the case for mid-October snowfalls this POSSIBLE event is likely to be an elevated Terrain type of event but it does have the potential to put down significant snowfall in these areas with snow levels perhaps as low as 1500 feet.

The culprit or cause of this is a very deep persistent trough in the jet stream which has been slamming into the Gulf of Alaska the East Pacific and western North America for the past several days. You may have noticed the rainfall in Los Angeles during the football game on Sunday. this massive trough is bringing much-needed rain and Mountain snows throughout all of the western u.s. and a much earlier than normal arrival of autumn. This is very good news for the droughts in areas of the western third of the CONUS.








A very strong piece of energy in the jet stream will crash into the Central and Northern California on Friday and Saturday. This will produce a significant low pressure area for the Rockies but mostly rain.

However a much stronger and truly massive piece of energy coming out of the northern Jet Stream and western Canada will drop into CALF and NV and go Bonkers on Tuesday October 12 .. and has a good chance to produce an impressive snowstorm by the Central and Northern Rockies.




























From there the system will track Northeast Across The Dakotas into Manitoba and Saskatchewan where it could bring another significant snowstorm to Those portions of the Canadian prairies on October 15.


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## wxdavid (Dec 22, 2015)

As for the Central and Eastern CONUS... as I said before on sept 26 the overall pattern remains quite mild and there is little chance of seeing any early kind of winter weather in the upper Plains or the Great Lakes before the end of the month.

https://www.plowsite.com/threads/the-next-15-20-days-mild-and-dry.181504/


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## Hydromaster (Jun 11, 2018)

We'll see


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## Hydromaster (Jun 11, 2018)




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## Mark Oomkes (Dec 10, 2000)

https://www.plowsite.com/threads/this-week-in-weather-search-for-winter-2021-22.181535/post-2532090


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## Mike_PS (Feb 28, 2005)

ok guys, you don't need to respond if you are just trying to joke around with the OP...you can avoid his threads/discussions


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## Hydromaster (Jun 11, 2018)

Michael J. Donovan said:


> ok guys, you don't need to respond if you are just trying to joke around with the OP...you can avoid his threads/discussions


I just wanted to have a record of other
Predictions so we can compare the forecasts
After the fact.

what is another word for possible. 
a educated guess?


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## wxdavid (Dec 22, 2015)

wxdavid said:


> nia on Friday and Saturday. This will produce a significant low pressure area for the Rockies but mostly rain.





Hydromaster said:


> We'll see
> View attachment 221735


sorry I am confused WHY you have presented 2 VERY different forecasts

a 30 day SPECIFIC forecast that has min - max temps along with clouds and precip icons for 30 days is NOT ' science"

the second forecast is fine. and legit


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## BossPlow2010 (Sep 29, 2010)

What’s the deal with this mist, we got a plethora of rain on Sunday and properties aren’t drying out, mild for sure, but humid, misting and overcast..
When will it be sunny for a week straight or so…


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## wxdavid (Dec 22, 2015)

Hydromaster said:


> I just wanted to have a record of other
> Predictions so we can compare the forecasts
> After the fact.
> 
> ...


You ask a good and valid question which I am going to attempt to answer. _You asked that what do I mean by POSSIBLE? Is it the same thing as an educated guess?_

* In summary yes it pretty much is.*

The maps I posted yesterday covers the 6-10 DAY time frame is about a potential event that is still 7+ days away from Tuesday ( 6 days from today). You-- or others -- -may feel that it is pointless to talk about a potential event 6 days away. And that of course certainly is your right.

On the other hand ...most of my clients and other private sector meteorologistas find that letting you know about something significant several days out as a possibility helps them plan or how to respond to it. This perspective is common whether you are farming or trading Commodities growing gapes in Vineyards... Landscaping... d construction. Or snow removal.

By knowing that something significant -- not 1 inch of snow but something more significant than that--- is coming 6 or 8 days or even 10 days-- enables businesses management and organizations to plan things better with extra Staffing and resources and what have you.

That being said it is impossible to know whether or not Cheyenne Or Casper Wyoming will going to see 2 inches of snow or 9inches of snow. I do suspect however based upon the current data that Caspar is more likely to see the bigger snow than Cheyenne given this atmospheric set up. But I do not know that for certain at this time.

Again from my perspective and your opinion may be different which is okay…. some people find this sort of information useful.

Respectfully
DT


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## wxdavid (Dec 22, 2015)

BossPlow2010 said:


> What's the deal with this mist, we got a plethora of rain on Sunday and properties aren't drying out, mild for sure, but humid, misting and overcast..
> When will it be sunny for a week straight or so…


The rain will end Saturday night then Sunday will become sunny -- Monday & Tuesday will have sun and dry weather In fact it will stay dry through next Thursday in MOST of MI

hope this helps?


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## Mark Oomkes (Dec 10, 2000)




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## wxdavid (Dec 22, 2015)

see t new thread on this


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## Hydromaster (Jun 11, 2018)

Did you see everybody updated there predictions last night,


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## Mark Oomkes (Dec 10, 2000)

wxdavid said:


> see t new thread on this


Why would there be a new thread about the same story?


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