# AccuWeather.com Meteorologist Joe Bastardi Forecasts Coldest Winter in Five Years



## tls22 (Sep 30, 2007)

Being that im a nice guy i will post the winter outlook from JB......you have to pay monthly to see his forecast! I guess like the the old saying goes the proof is in the pudding!



AccuWeather.com Chief Long-Range Forecaster Joe Bastardi today released his 2008-09 Winter Season Forecast addressing issues of average temperature and precipitation impacting the nation. His forecast calls for one of the coldest winters in several years across much of the East. 

The core of cold was centered across the Midwest last year but is expected to be farther east this year. Bastardi says the winter of 2008-2009 will be viewed as the hardest in several years. "It may be a shock to some when compared with the above-average temperatures of last year in the East. It will put some 'brrrrrr' in the saddle of folks who have not had to deal with such things for a while," he cautions. 

"In the eastern half of the nation, people will look at the winter as bookends of cold," Bastardi said. He says the overall colder and snowier winter will be off to a cold start in December with perhaps the roughest winter month for much of the nation. It may finish with another cold spell in late January and February. 

Between the bookends of cold, Bastardi expects "the January thaw of old winter lore" but it will offer only a temporary break to consumers. "The winter as a whole in the population-dense eastern third of the nation will be a one-two punch of higher heating prices and lower temperatures. Given this economic environment, the winter will push some homeowners to the brink," he concludes. In some cases, homeowners trying to keep their residences as warm as last winter could spend hundreds of dollars more this heating season. 

Temperatures across most of the West will be warmer than last year and should be warmer than normal, which will help consumers by keeping heating cost increases in check. The northern Rockies and Northwest will still have more snow than normal but not as much as last year, where some locations developed a snow pack that reached twice normal levels.

The Midwest was blasted by snow last year and many communities ran very low on salt to keep roads clear of ice. Despite the elevated cost of salt this winter season, these areas will receive a break in the form of less snow than last year. Unfortunately, the East will not turn out as lucky, as more snowfall than last year is expected. 



Im down for this!:bluebounc


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## stroker79 (Dec 2, 2006)

Stop trying to pay off other forcasters to try to prove your point. All the east coasters are saying we will get less snow but the locals all say we will have lots of snow. We will just have to wait and see!!!!!!!


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## 06HD BOSS (Nov 28, 2005)

stroker79;600325 said:


> Stop trying to pay off other forcasters to try to prove your point. All the east coasters are saying we will get less snow but the locals all say we will have lots of snow. We will just have to wait and see!!!!!!!


its the same BS every year. one says one thing the other says another thing. we'll wait and see is right. although this is the 4th winter forecast ive read that agrees with the cold (& potentially snowy) forecast of others.


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## Grn Mtn (Sep 21, 2004)

if this fall is any indication with all the lake effect rain we have had, a pounding is near at hand. i feel it in my bones.


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## tls22 (Sep 30, 2007)

stroker79;600325 said:


> Stop trying to pay off other forcasters to try to prove your point. All the east coasters are saying we will get less snow but the locals all say we will have lots of snow. We will just have to wait and see!!!!!!!





06HD BOSS;600388 said:


> its the same BS every year. one says one thing the other says another thing. we'll wait and see is right. although this is the 4th winter forecast ive read that agrees with the cold (& potentially snowy) forecast of others.


I agree with you guys anything can happen, i just want more then 40 inches of snow this year!ussmileyflag


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## bribrius (May 5, 2007)

now im confused tim
your other thread says i will get average snowfall. 
this one says i will get more snow than last year which was above average?
all the local weather people around here are saying we will get more than average this year with colder than normal temps.

starting to wonders what is up with the forecasts?
i dunno. i still say above average but i dont get paid to predict snow just to plow it.


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## tls22 (Sep 30, 2007)

bribrius;600444 said:


> now im confused tim
> your other thread says i will get average snowfall.
> this one says i will get more snow than last year which was above average?
> all the local weather people around here are saying we will get more than average this year with colder than normal temps.
> ...


The other Forcast was from a diff forcaster at accuweather, but the basic trend here in all the outlooks is cold and snow for the east. Which is great for us Bri


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## T-MAN (Jan 9, 2001)

tls22;600449 said:


> The other Forcast was from a diff forcaster at accuweather, but the basic trend here in all the outlooks is cold and snow for the east. Which is great for us Bri


How was Big Joes forecast for this summer for you East coasters ? Did he nail it ?


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## tls22 (Sep 30, 2007)

T-MAN;600648 said:


> How was Big Joes forecast for this summer for you East coasters ? Did he nail it ?


I don't know off hand, i canceled my subscription in march. I don't need his wisdom in the summer, but i will find out for you!


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## mike psd (Aug 12, 2007)

06HD BOSS;600388 said:


> its the same BS every year. one says one thing the other says another thing. we'll wait and see is right. although this is the 4th winter forecast ive read that agrees with the cold (& potentially snowy) forecast of others.





Grn Mtn;600407 said:


> if this fall is any indication with all the lake effect rain we have had, a pounding is near at hand. i feel it in my bones.


i agree with both of you just wait and see and this year i said the hell with this long range forecasting that other make for me i'll make my own ideas and conclusion about the winter based on what going on now . if def cold i bet everyone that switch to burning wood will be happy


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## Midwest BuildIt Inc (Nov 14, 2004)

ill believe it when i see the snow on the ground. they have no idea at this point. its just a guess. that's how I roll..


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## E-MAN NY (Jan 6, 2007)

*Bad Winter*

Hi Guys, i lust read Joes post in todays NY Daily News, WOW!!! sounds good....we need a decent December to start things off!!! That would be sweet. Could use some holiday $$$$ too.........good luck guys.....Kevin


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## Quality SR (Oct 25, 2006)

mike psd;600719 said:


> i agree with both of you just wait and see and this year i said the hell with this long range forecasting that other make for me i'll make my own ideas and conclusion about the winter based on what going on now . if def cold i bet everyone that switch to burning wood will be happy


I agree also. We will have to wait and see. These guys don't know what is going to happen, it is a prediction. A prediction can go either way. The best way to find out when it is going to snow is to look out the window. When you see this white stuff falling down, then you know it is snowing.


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## WingPlow (Jun 18, 2007)

these guys cant predict with any certainty more then 2 days out and you want them to predict 2 months ???

heres my prediction, by december it'll be cold and it will snow at some point between now and april


now pay up.....payup


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## tls22 (Sep 30, 2007)

Way to go out on a limb wing plow willy!


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## WingPlow (Jun 18, 2007)

...bet i'll be more accurate then the big name weather guessers


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## iceyman (Mar 1, 2007)

WingPlow;602956 said:


> these guys cant predict with any certainty more then 2 days out and you want them to predict 2 months ???
> 
> heres my prediction, by december it'll be cold and it will snow at some point between now and april
> 
> now pay up.....payup


if your talking bout jersey... your prediction wouldve been wrong for the last 3 years


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## Snow Day (Aug 23, 2008)

Did he ever mention my area, Central Plains? Doesn't look like it.


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## Mid-Ohio Scaper (Aug 17, 2008)

hey TLS
did you modify Joe Bastardi's forecast? I checked on accuweather and it seems like you changed some locations. Check it out for yourself - 
http://www.accuweather.com/news-weather-features.asp??partner=accuweather&traveler=0&page=winter


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## Mid-Ohio Scaper (Aug 17, 2008)

Not that I care, being a meteorologist is one of the few professions where you can be consistently wrong and still keep your job! Along with politicians..........


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## stroker79 (Dec 2, 2006)

Mid-Ohio Scaper;607793 said:


> hey TLS
> did you modify Joe Bastardi's forecast? I checked on accuweather and it seems like you changed some locations. Check it out for yourself -
> http://www.accuweather.com/news-weather-features.asp??partner=accuweather&traveler=0&page=winter


Actually his forcast is different if your a paying customer on accuweather. I am a professional member there and all he did was copy/paste. They post stuff and far more detailed stuff very early on the pay section versus the free section.


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## Weatherwizard (Oct 17, 2008)

*snow?*

I'm not buying any of the hype. I'm certainly a snow lover, but I don't see any evidence whatsoever of acold winter, in fact I see just the opposite setting up. I predict this winter to rival those of recent winters, only a bit milder. It is October 17th, and Central,CT has yet to see a frost yet, let alone a killing one. They are still picking and selling corn on a daily basis. There is not even a hint of a frost in sight, through the end of the month. I hate to rain on everyone's parade here, but we all get hopeful for a winter of yester-year, but this is definately not going to be the year, not even close.


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## 06HD BOSS (Nov 28, 2005)

Weatherwizard;608159 said:


> I'm not buying any of the hype. I'm certainly a snow lover, but I don't see any evidence whatsoever of acold winter, in fact I see just the opposite setting up. I predict this winter to rival those of recent winters, only a bit milder. It is October 17th, and Central,CT has yet to see a frost yet, let alone a killing one. They are still picking and selling corn on a daily basis. There is not even a hint of a frost in sight, through the end of the month. I hate to rain on everyone's parade here, but we all get hopeful for a winter of yester-year, but this is definately not going to be the year, not even close.


Where in CT are you? Im in rocky hill and about 2 weeks ago we got a frost. not a killing one, but enough to cover the grass and truck windshield. Dunno about your farm, but everyone around here is past done selling corn lol. Looks to me by this graphic theres a chance of frost the next 3 nights.....










Time will tell. Im not planning for anything, but will be more than happy to see a different weather pattern than the last couple years.


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## Weatherwizard (Oct 17, 2008)

I'm in East Haddam, still haven't had a frost, and the farmstand is still open selling corn, although may be about the end of ot.


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## tls22 (Sep 30, 2007)

Weatherwizard;608159 said:


> I'm not buying any of the hype. I'm certainly a snow lover, but I don't see any evidence whatsoever of acold winter, in fact I see just the opposite setting up. I predict this winter to rival those of recent winters, only a bit milder. It is October 17th, and Central,CT has yet to see a frost yet, let alone a killing one. They are still picking and selling corn on a daily basis. There is not even a hint of a frost in sight, through the end of the month. I hate to rain on everyone's parade here, but we all get hopeful for a winter of yester-year, but this is definately not going to be the year, not even close.


Look out the window man, most of your area has seen frost. By the middle of next week you will have ur killing freeze. The lows this weekend for ur area will be below 32. The leaves have change early this year also, they are falling as we speak. I believe this has been a complete diff October then last year. Look for it to stay cold, novemeber-december will be below avg in temps!


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## jt5019 (Aug 28, 2003)

We had frost a couple times in Middletown already and nbc30 news is calling for a freeze this weekend.


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## tls22 (Sep 30, 2007)

jt5019;608327 said:


> We had frost a couple times in Middletown already and nbc30 news is calling for a freeze this weekend.


You could not be more right , this has def been a great October. Look for a great winter with snow!:waving:


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## Weatherwizard (Oct 17, 2008)

you people are dilusional. October weather has nothing to do with December weather, January, or February weather. You act like the leaves falling off the trees in mid October is a sign of a rough winter, are you serious? There has yet to be a killing frost, and won't be through next week. The temp. at 32 for an hour or two, is not a killing frost, or a freeze, and is completely irrelevant to winter weather early or late. If you look at ENSO, and NAO, MJO, La nina, SST's you'll wake up and realize, that this winter is going to be one of the mildest yet. I wish the signals were wrong, but they are all there. Look at the CPC, not a single area of the country will be below normal. This isn't Candyland LOL, but keep kidding yourselves, it is nice to dream!


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## red07gsxr (Dec 22, 2007)

i have had atleast 3 frost events so far and as far as picking corn, no farm around here is picking corn anymore, i think that event is over.


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## tls22 (Sep 30, 2007)

Weatherwizard;608336 said:


> you people are dilusional. October weather has nothing to do with December weather, January, or February weather. You act like the leaves falling off the trees in mid October is a sign of a rough winter, are you serious? There has yet to be a killing frost, and won't be through next week. The temp. at 32 for an hour or two, is not a killing frost, or a freeze, and is completely irrelevant to winter weather early or late. If you look at ENSO, and NAO, MJO, La nina, SST's you'll wake up and realize, that this winter is going to be one of the mildest yet. I wish the signals were wrong, but they are all there. Look at the CPC, not a single area of the country will be below normal. This isn't Candyland LOL, but keep kidding yourselves, it is nice to dream!


Lol, well excuse me if happen to knock you down a few pegs. I believe the avg Killing frost for central Ct is not until the end of october. With me saying the leaves have change early, i was comparing last october to present day. The majority of our leaves did not fall until December last year. There has been plenty of winters that have yielded alot of snow, with the first real killing frost not coming until late novemebr. For you to say that the killing frost is late is irrelevant. Are you going off last winters stats? There is going to be no la nina this year, it will be in netural state or la nada. Last winter was a strong la nina, and for your information the cpc has been trending colder and colder for this winter. So perhaps you should pull ur head out from the global warming thread. The enso and nao which u have stated does have a effect on our weather, but can flip flop threw out the winter. The nao also tanks neg in the winter, so there state now will change 3 weeks from now. I would like to see your link for the cpc, last i saw it had the eastern side of the country below normal. Which was a thread on easternweather. Your acting as if a late killing frost is the sign of a mild winter. Thats like me saying they had snow in billings, its going to be a great winter. Get a grip dude, and kno what your talking about first!:waving:


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## tls22 (Sep 30, 2007)

Njz001-007>010-012-015-paz054-055-060>062-067>069-181015-
sussex-warren-morris-hunterdon-somerset-middlesex-mercer-carbon-
monroe-berks-lehigh-northampton-chester-montgomery-bucks-
401 am edt fri oct 17 2008

this hazardous weather outlook is for central new jersey...northern
new jersey...northwest new jersey...east central
pennsylvania...northeast pennsylvania and southeast pennsylvania.

.day one...today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.days two through seven...saturday through thursday.

There is the potential for some frost or freezing temperatures
saturday night. There is a greater chance of this occurring on
sunday night. The weather pattern has changed and there will be
more chances for frost or freezing temperatures next week. If you
have any vegetables left to pick or tropical type plants
outdoors, it would be advisable to bring the plants indoors and
pick those last vegetables by saturday afternoon.

.spotter information statement...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time


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## Weatherwizard (Oct 17, 2008)

NOAA Still Sees Above Average Temperatures for Most of the U.S. and Below Normal Precipitation Across the South 
Agency Issues Final U.S. Winter Outlook for the 2007-08 Season
November 15, 2007


Winter temperature outlook.

+ High Resolution (Credit: NOAA) 
In the final forecast update to the U.S. winter outlook, NOAA Climate Prediction Center forecasters remain confident in predicting above average temperatures for much of the country – including southern sections of the Northeast – and below normal precipitation for the southern tier of the nation. Above average precipitation is still anticipated for the Pacific Northwest, and in the Great Lakes and Tennessee Valley. 

“La Niña strengthened during October, making it even more likely that the United States will see below-average precipitation in the already drought-stricken regions of the Southwest and the Southeast this winter,” said Michael Halpert, deputy director of the Climate Prediction Center. “Recent sea surface temperatures indicate we have moderate La Niña conditions in place over the equatorial Pacific which we expect to continue into early 2008.” 

On average, for December 2007 through February 2008, NOAA seasonal forecasters predict: 

Temperatures are expected to be above average in the Mid-Atlantic states and southern sections of the Northeast in response to the long-term warming trend. La Niña favors drier than average conditions along the mid-Atlantic coast. As always, snowfall for the region will depend on other climate factors, which are difficult to anticipate more than one to two weeks in advance. 
The drought-plagued Southeast is likely to remain drier than average due to La Niña, while temperatures are expected to be above average. 
In the Great Lakes and Tennessee Valley, temperatures and precipitation should both be above average. 
The south-central Plains should see drier-than-average conditions and warmer-than-average temperatures. Above-average temperatures are also expected in the central Plains. The northern Plains has equal chances of above-, near-, or below-average temperature and precipitation. 
In the Northwest, there are equal chances for above-, near-, or below-average temperatures. Precipitation should be above average in much of the region due to La Niña. 
Much of California is anticipated be drier than average in response to La Niña, while there are equal chances of above-, near-, or below-average temperatures. 
Drought conditions are expected to persist in the Southwest due to La Niña, and temperatures are likely to be above average. 
Northern Alaska is expect to be milder than average, while the rest of Alaska has equal chances of above-, near-, or below-average temperatures and precipitation. 

Show me the cold weather, their map has the whole country with not one area with even a chance to be below normal!!!


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## Weatherwizard (Oct 17, 2008)

There is no La Nina?

what is this:

La Niña strengthened during October, making it even more likely that the United States will see below-average precipitation in the already drought-stricken


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## Weatherwizard (Oct 17, 2008)

and this:

Temperatures are expected to be above average in the Mid-Atlantic states and southern sections of the Northeast in response to the long-term warming trend. La Niña favors drier than average conditions along the mid-Atlantic coast. As always, snowfall for the region will depend on other climate factors, which are difficult to anticipate more than one to two 

like I said wishful thinking!


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## tls22 (Sep 30, 2007)

Hey buddy look at the year? Im lookin for 2008-2009.....Lmao Noaa has not put there forcast out yet! Like i said you where lookin at last winter.


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## Weatherwizard (Oct 17, 2008)

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2007/images/temperaturemap111507_midsize.jpg

There is the map of temperature outlooks for DJF. Blue is cold, show me blue on the map? There is none anywhere in the country


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## tls22 (Sep 30, 2007)

weatherwizard;608419 said:


> http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2007/images/temperaturemap111507_midsize.jpg
> 
> there is the map of temperature outlooks for djf. Blue is cold, show me blue on the map? There is none anywhere in the country


this winter 2008-2009....that outlook was for last year. That does me no good!


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## tls22 (Sep 30, 2007)

These are the dates for first and last Freeze for NYC......1930-31..Nov...5th.....Mar....14th
1931-32..Nov...7th.....Apr....13th
1932-33..Nov..20th.....Mar....25th
1933-34..Oct..26th.....Mar....29th
1934-35..Nov..14th.....Apr....16th
1935-36..Nov..23rd.....Apr......8th
1936-37..Oct..26th.....Mar....31st
1937-38..Nov..21st.....Apr......7th
1938-39..Nov..24th.....Arp....13th
1939-40..Nov..13th.....Apr....15th

1940-41..Oct..19th*...Mar....31st
1941-42..Nov..25th.....Feb....28th*
1942-43..Nov..13th.....Apr....16th
1943-44..Nov..15th.....Apr......6th
1944-45..Nov..23rd.....Mar....11th
1945-46..Nov..21st.....Mar....12th
1946-47..Nov..23rd.....Mar....31st
1947-48..Nov..19th.....Apr......4th
1948-49..Dec..11th.....Mar....20th
1949-50..Nov..22nd.....Apr....14th

1950-51..Nov..26th.....Mar....27th
1951-52..Nov....3rd.....Mar....17th
1952-53..Nov..29th.....Mar....11th
1953-54..Nov....6th.....Apr......4th
1954-55..Nov..10th.....Mar....29th
1955-56..Nov..19th.....Mar....28th
1956-57..Nov..10th.....Mar....25th
1957-58..Nov..11th.....Apr......9th
1958-59..Nov..28th.....Mar....29th
1959-60..Nov..17th.....Mar....27th

1960-61..Nov....7th.....Mar....21st
1961-62..Nov..10th.....Mar......9th
1962-63..Nov....7th.....Mar....23rd
1963-64..Dec....1st.....Apr......5th
1964-65..Nov..21st.....Apr......1st
1965-66..Oct..29th.....Mar.....29th
1966-67..Nov....4th.....Apr.....12th
1967-68..Nov....8th.....Apr......6th
1968-69..Nov..21st.....Apr......1st
1969-70..Oct..23rd.....Apr.....11th

1970-71..Nov..23rd.....Mar.....27th
1971-72..Nov....8th.....Apr.....9th
1972-73..Oct..20th.....Mar.....21st
1973-74..Nov..10th.....Apr.....10th
1974-75..Oct..19th*...Apr.....10th
1975-76..Oct..31st.....Apr.....12th
1976-77..Oct..27th.....Apr.....10th
1977-78..Nov..14th.....Apr......3rd
1978-79..Nov..25th.....Apr......8th
1979-80..Nov..30th.....Apr.....17th*

1980-81..Nov..16th.....Mar.....21st
1981-82..Nov..25th.....Apr......8th
1982-83..Nov..13th.....Mar.....30th
1983-84..Nov..13th.....Mar.....18th
1984-85..Nov..19th.....Apr.....10th
1985-86..Dec...2nd.....Mar.....22nd
1986-87..Nov..13th.....Apr......1st
1987-88..Nov..11th.....Mar.....23rd
1988-89..Oct..31st.....Mar.....22nd
1989-90..Nov..18th.....Mar.....28th

1990-91..Nov....9th.....Apr.....13th
1991-92..Nov..26th.....Apr.....13th
1992-93..Nov....8th.....Mar.....20th
1993-94..Nov..21st.....Mar.....19th
1994-95..Nov..23rd.....Apr......6th
1995-96..Nov....9th.....Mar.....29th
1996-97..Nov..12th.....Apr.....10th
1997-98..Nov..13th.....Mar.....23rd
1998-99..Dec..22nd*...Mar.....16th
1999-00..Nov..30th.....Apr......9th

2000-01..Nov..20th.....Mar.....28th
2001-02..Dec..16th.....Apr......7th
2002-03..Nov..27th.....Apr......8th
2003-04..Nov....9th.....Apr......6th
2004-05..Nov....9th.....Mar.....16th
2005-06..Nov..18th.....Mar.....22nd
2006-07..Dec....4th.....Apr......9th
2007-08..Nov..11th.....Mar.....30th
2008-09..

1995-1996 was a awsome winter and so was the 40 plus inch years of 2002-2006 alll those killing frost did not happen until after the 1st of nov:waving:


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## Weatherwizard (Oct 17, 2008)

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=2

sorry clicked wrong map this is DJF 08-09 same result, no blue in the entire country!


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## storm king (Sep 17, 2008)

If I listened to NOAA every time they said rain or thunder storms, I would have never taken my boat out this year , (or any other for that matter) they are about as bad if not worse than everyone elese. 

Last year the snow hit before the leaves fell and it isn't looking that way this year for sure. accorns dropped early , deer got dark brown early , the ants that were pissing me off in the house split early this year, frost pretty much killed everything in my garden a few weeks back and I am south of you.

I could go on and on in real life observations......without quoteing some weatherman bull, how many times do you look at the radar piccture and make a better guess than the experts , usually only a day or two out , I am not impressed, they can't even get that right half the time.

I will take a good look at nature anyday over the weather guru's long range forcast. 
Try paying attention to whats going on around you , the signs are there winters comming alot stronger than last year . THAT IS A FACT. Your guess is as good as any , but even a fool can see what is actually going on around the north east.
Corn season is right on track this year in all the fields around here.


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## tls22 (Sep 30, 2007)

Weatherwizard;608432 said:


> http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=2
> 
> sorry clicked wrong map this is DJF 08-09 same result, no blue in the entire country!


The only month they have above Normal For the east coast is Janaury, which if you read Jb's post he said a janaury thaw. Those maps are updated every month and have have not seen Noaa go below normal temps in years, even in our cold winters. Since the global warming theory noaa has based its avg on it.


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## Weatherwizard (Oct 17, 2008)

Ok I'm not going to try to explain something to people that are completely with a one track mind. The only thing you want to see, or can see is what you want to see, and everyone else, regardless of their expertise is going to be wrong. So best of luck...btw, I'm a cold weather, and big storm lover, I'm with you, I'm not the enemy, and I'm not just going by the CPC, I'm going on the signs, that have scientific evidence, that this will be a mild winter, I'd like to wear the rose colored glasses, but I have some objectivity, and call it as I see it, when it is january, and the ground is bare, you'll have a reason why...and if it is 5 below zero with a big snow-pack I'll be right here saying I was dead wrong, but don't count on it.I have been right on th money in 8 of the last 10 years, we'll see what happens.


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## tls22 (Sep 30, 2007)

Weatherwizard;608462 said:


> Ok I'm not going to try to explain something to people that are completely with a one track mind. The only thing you want to see, or can see is what you want to see, and everyone else, regardless of their expertise is going to be wrong. So best of luck...btw, I'm a cold weather, and big storm lover, I'm with you, I'm not the enemy, and I'm not just going by the CPC, I'm going on the signs, that have scientific evidence, that this will be a mild winter, I'd like to wear the rose colored glasses, but I have some objectivity, and call it as I see it, when it is january, and the ground is bare, you'll have a reason why...and if it is 5 below zero with a big snow-pack I'll be right here saying I was dead wrong, but don't count on it.I have been right on th money in 8 of the last 10 years, we'll see what happens.


Fair enough my man, we shall see what happens! I just want you to be on the 2008-2009 winter, not 20007-2008! We will prob not have snow on the ground in the middel of janaury thats when the thaw is going to kick in!


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## storm king (Sep 17, 2008)

Well at least Grandview will be happy if he is right


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## 06HD BOSS (Nov 28, 2005)

Tim, go have a beer and relax  i know youre biting your lip.

on that note WeatherWizard...your forecast is 100% opposite than the 4 or 5 others that ive seen


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## ducatirider944 (Feb 25, 2008)

Crap that thing has me 60-70% above all winter long. I might be screwed becuase I just landed a couple of big jobs that gives me less time to plow!


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## 06HD BOSS (Nov 28, 2005)

Weatherwizard;608159 said:


> I'm not buying any of the hype. I'm certainly a snow lover, but I don't see any evidence whatsoever of acold winter, in fact I see just the opposite setting up. I predict this winter to rival those of recent winters, only a bit milder. It is October 17th, and Central,CT has yet to see a frost yet, let alone a killing one. They are still picking and selling corn on a daily basis. There is not even a hint of a frost in sight, through the end of the month. I hate to rain on everyone's parade here, but we all get hopeful for a winter of yester-year, but this is definately not going to be the year, not even close.


Weather wizard check this link out... 
http://wvit.weatherplus.com/severe/?loc=Hartford,%20CT

Freeze warnings issued by the national weather service for tonight. "No frost in sight through the end of the month" ?


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## blueline38 (Dec 22, 2007)

well this is the second morning I have had to scrape my windows here in central new york. IMO this summer has been cooler then others so, with no proof, I believe the lake is colder then normal. It seems as we are getting colder sooner this year, or colder at night sooner anyway, which will drop the temperature of the lake sooner so that should mean less lake effect snow. However we have already had several lake effect rain storms so I could be wrong on that. But we have also seen more of our weather coming from the north as opposed to the south/west. If this stays true throughout the winter then we will have a colder winter. JUST IMO!


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## Weatherwizard (Oct 17, 2008)

Like I said, everyone here is hoping for cold and snow, myself included, I just don't see it, but in a short time we will all find out.


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## storm king (Sep 17, 2008)

Take a walk outside at about 4-30 , 5 am , you might see it then.  
Gettin nice and chilly in these parts the past few days ......................................Storm King


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## Mark Oomkes (Dec 10, 2000)

06HD BOSS;608642 said:


> Tim, go have a beer and relax  i know youre biting your lip.
> 
> on that note WeatherWizard...your forecast is 100% opposite than the 4 or 5 others that ive seen


Just remember, last season the majority of forecasters were predicting a warm, less snowy winter.


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## Weatherwizard (Oct 17, 2008)

storm king;610428 said:


> Take a walk outside at about 4-30 , 5 am , you might see it then.
> Gettin nice and chilly in these parts the past few days ......................................Storm King


I'm up at 5AM every morning and do 6 miles in Haddam Meadows at 7


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## Weatherwizard (Oct 17, 2008)

I'm not sure where you live, but here in Central Connecticut it was warm and less snowy


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## Weatherwizard (Oct 17, 2008)

winter 07-08:

DEC 29.8 50th coldest in last 112 yrs
JAN 29.6 92nd coldest
Feb 29.6 86th coldest

below normal?


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## Weatherwizard (Oct 17, 2008)

For the winter proper, from December, 2008 through February 2009, the CPC says we’re likely to see warmer than normal temperatures for most of the US, and drier than normal conditions in the southeast, including Georgia. Based on what I’ve seen in the past, this prediction is likely to become the ‘official’ winter outlook.


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## Daddy Wags (Feb 3, 2007)

*Weather Guess*

I'm not usually a pessimist, but when it comes to weather predictions, I am. These people can't even predict the next days weather. How are they going to predict it months ahead?


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## 06HD BOSS (Nov 28, 2005)

Mark Oomkes;610437 said:


> Just remember, last season the majority of forecasters were predicting a warm, less snowy winter.


And thats exactly what we got. so they were right.


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## 06HD BOSS (Nov 28, 2005)

Weatherwizard;610321 said:


> Like I said, everyone here is hoping for cold and snow, myself included, I just don't see it, but in a short time we will all find out.


So howd you like that 29 degrees we had this morning? Looked like a killing frost to me


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## tls22 (Sep 30, 2007)

Weatherwizard;610521 said:


> For the winter proper, from December, 2008 through February 2009, the CPC says we're likely to see warmer than normal temperatures for most of the US, and drier than normal conditions in the southeast, including Georgia. Based on what I've seen in the past, this prediction is likely to become the 'official' winter outlook.


Dont put all your eggs into the cpc.....they change that prediction each month. The only month they have us above normal in january, so i dont understand where ur getting the blow torch from. Things so far this fall look alot better for a snowy and colder winter, it looks a hell alot better then it did last year. I can give u links that will back this up. Even back in our snowy winters during the early 2000's the cpc was warm, it can be above normal and still have a good snow year. Boston was above normal in snowfall last year and i believe there temps for the winter where above normal also!


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## Weatherwizard (Oct 17, 2008)

tough crowd, obviously everyone here is better than the weather service, I'll bet if they prdicted a bitter cold winter with record snow, you'd latch onto them like they were gold. I realize when someone has it in their mind, it is going to go a certain way, it is best to not even offer an opinion, because they will only rip it apart, I'm outa here, I'll be back after our mild winter, and below normal snowfall. This is a classic setup like last year. NAO will be running positive or 0 most of the winter, with flashes into negative terriotory. When the NAO goes negative, a storm almost always forms on the east coast. There will be a few chances, but this is classic inside runner setup, and that puts us in the warm sector unfortunately. I predict no snow of consequence before New year's with the best chance coming in the first half of January. Then you'll see a winter thaw on schedule during the 2nd half of the month, and it will never retreat. February will be like spring 3 out of 4 weeks of the month. Crocus will be up in mid February! It will turn seasonable in March, with perhaps a storm in the first 10 days. Mild interludes, interchanging with normal weather. The spring will start slow, and won't get into full throttle until late May or early June. 

Central CT snowfall prediction: 24-30"

Central Connecticut Meteorological winter:

DECEMBER: 2-4 degrees above normal

JANUARY 3-5 degrees above normal (possibly up to 7)

FEBRUARY 1-3 degrees above normal

WINTER 2-4 degrees above normal

I'll be back after January when you'll finally realize, wow that guy was dead nuts on!


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## stroker79 (Dec 2, 2006)

Weatherwizard;610765 said:


> tough crowd, obviously everyone here is better than the weather service, I'll bet if they prdicted a bitter cold winter with record snow, you'd latch onto them like they were gold. I realize when someone has it in their mind, it is going to go a certain way, it is best to not even offer an opinion, because they will only rip it apart, I'm outa here, I'll be back after our mild winter, and below normal snowfall. This is a classic setup like last year. NAO will be running positive or 0 most of the winter, with flashes into negative terriotory. When the NAO goes negative, a storm almost always forms on the east coast. There will be a few chances, but this is classic inside runner setup, and that puts us in the warm sector unfortunately. I predict no snow of consequence before New year's with the best chance coming in the first half of January. Then you'll see a winter thaw on schedule during the 2nd half of the month, and it will never retreat. February will be like spring 3 out of 4 weeks of the month. Crocus will be up in mid February! It will turn seasonable in March, with perhaps a storm in the first 10 days. Mild interludes, interchanging with normal weather. The spring will start slow, and won't get into full throttle until late May or early June.
> 
> Central CT snowfall prediction: 24-30"
> 
> ...


CYA Later!!!:waving:


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## tls22 (Sep 30, 2007)

Weatherwizard;610765 said:


> tough crowd, obviously everyone here is better than the weather service, I'll bet if they prdicted a bitter cold winter with record snow, you'd latch onto them like they were gold. I realize when someone has it in their mind, it is going to go a certain way, it is best to not even offer an opinion, because they will only rip it apart, I'm outa here, I'll be back after our mild winter, and below normal snowfall. This is a classic setup like last year. NAO will be running positive or 0 most of the winter, with flashes into negative terriotory. When the NAO goes negative, a storm almost always forms on the east coast. There will be a few chances, but this is classic inside runner setup, and that puts us in the warm sector unfortunately. I predict no snow of consequence before New year's with the best chance coming in the first half of January. Then you'll see a winter thaw on schedule during the 2nd half of the month, and it will never retreat. February will be like spring 3 out of 4 weeks of the month. Crocus will be up in mid February! It will turn seasonable in March, with perhaps a storm in the first 10 days. Mild interludes, interchanging with normal weather. The spring will start slow, and won't get into full throttle until late May or early June.
> 
> Central CT snowfall prediction: 24-30"
> 
> ...


Say the guy with 16 post and gets his info from last years predictions. That sounds like a forcast from a met last fall. I will be here waiting...i bet central ct get 18 inche sin one storm. So get ready to eat ur words. Come back when u actually kno about weather, and can explain the diff between la-nina, la nada, el nino.....Perhaps read up. Im way ahead of you!


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## Mark Oomkes (Dec 10, 2000)

storm king;610428 said:


> Take a walk outside at about 4-30 , 5 am , you might see it then.
> Gettin nice and chilly in these parts the past few days ......................................Storm King


Isn't that what happens every year about this time?



06HD BOSS;610602 said:


> And thats exactly what we got. so they were right.


Yes, but the majority of the rest of the country did not. That forecast was for the entire country, not just your little part of CT.



06HD BOSS;610607 said:


> So howd you like that 29 degrees we had this morning? Looked like a killing frost to me


What does a killing frost at the normal time of the year have to do with winter? Don't you always get a killing frost about this time of the year? We do.

Give the guy a break, even if you don't like what he has to say. Just because he's going against the rest doesn't make him wrong, like I said, look at last year for the MAJORITY of the country, 4 out of 6 forecasters were wrong. Even our local NWS guy predicted 80"--more than any of the local guys--and he was off buy 24".


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## 06HD BOSS (Nov 28, 2005)

Mark Oomkes;610867 said:


> What does a killing frost at the normal time of the year have to do with winter? Don't you always get a killing frost about this time of the year? We do.
> 
> Give the guy a break, even if you don't like what he has to say....


Because he was awful confident saying there is no sign on a frost through the end of the month. also our killing frost doesnt happen for another week or 2, on average.


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## Weatherwizard (Oct 17, 2008)

06HD BOSS;610928 said:


> Because he was awful confident saying there is no sign on a frost through the end of the month. also our killing frost doesnt happen for another week or 2, on average.


This is such misguided information:

Here are the facts:

Hartford CT 166 Apr. 26 Oct. 9

The first killing frost in Hartford averages to be Oct 9th


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## toby4492 (Dec 28, 2005)




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## Weatherwizard (Oct 17, 2008)

Ok for all the doubting Thomas' in this forum, this is why the predictions of a mild, less snowy winter are forecast. Take a look at all the history of a neg. tilt of the NAO during the middle of the current year, and what followed the subsequent winter. When it reaches -2 during mid year, as in this year, every single time, the winter's were among the mildest on record. So is this winter the exception to the rule? Noone has the 100% ironclad answer to that, but when I see an overall pattern shaping up, that has never been different, I'll put my eggs in that basket!

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_ESszWnn4gco/SN1s4IqCLPI/AAAAAAAAITM/rVenbHfEwTk/s1600-h/092608-NAO.gif


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## Mark Oomkes (Dec 10, 2000)

tls22;610799 said:


> Say the guy with 16 post and gets his info from last years predictions. That sounds like a forcast from a met last fall. I will be here waiting...i bet central ct get 18 inche sin one storm. So get ready to eat ur words. Come back when u actually kno about weather, and can explain the diff between la-nina, la nada, el nino.....Perhaps read up. Im way ahead of you!


Quick, before you google it, what does NAO stand for?


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## storm king (Sep 17, 2008)

YEA RIGHT DUDE, 
I think I should just take the cover off my pool for the jan-feb thaw.


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## tls22 (Sep 30, 2007)

Mark Oomkes;610981 said:


> Still trying to figure out what NAO stands for?


North Atlantic oscillation!:waving: Anymore more brain busters!


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## SnoFarmer (Oct 15, 2004)

I looked in your history folder and i found this yahoo search...nao and this site.
http://www.ldeo.columbia.edu/res/pi/NAO/
so you did look it up......xysport


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## tls22 (Sep 30, 2007)

SnoFarmer;610995 said:


> I looked in your history folder and i found this yahoo search...nao and this site.
> http://www.ldeo.columbia.edu/res/pi/NAO/
> so you did look it up......xysport


Welcome to the party Farmer!:waving:

Yes and you have the power to look at my personal computer, whats next you can make it snow? On page two i talk about the NAO, which was way before Marks question. Oh well to each his own! :waving:


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## SnoFarmer (Oct 15, 2004)

.....

And yes I can make it snow.


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## Weatherwizard (Oct 17, 2008)

Maybe this will make everyone happy:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
258 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2008

...EARLY SEASON SNOWFALL EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE...

.LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT. RAIN WILL
CHANGE TO SNOW FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THIS EVENING AS COLDER AIR
IS DRAWN INTO THE SYSTEM. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ARE LIKELY OVER
THE NORTH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...BY MID MORNING
WEDNESDAY.

MEZ001-003-220400-
/O.EXT.KCAR.WW.Y.0013.081021T2300Z-081022T1400Z/
NORTHWEST AROOSTOOK-NORTHERN SOMERSET-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALLAGASH...CLAYTON LAKE...MADAWASKA...
FORT KENT...FRENCHVILLE...BAKER LAKE...BILLY-JACK DEPOT
258 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2008

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING
TO 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM
THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY.

SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
ADVISORY AREA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THIS STORM WILL HAVE A LOW IMPACT ON THE ADVISORY AREA. SNOW WILL
LEAD TO SOME MINOR TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. VISIBILITY WILL
OCCASIONALLY BE LIMITED TO LESS THAN ONE MILE IN MODERATE SNOW.
MOTORISTS SHOULD BE CAUTIOUS AS UNTREATED ROADS WILL BE SLIPPERY
LATER TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

PLEASE REPORT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
BY CALLING TOLL FREE...877-633-6772. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER
RADIO...YOUR LOCAL MEDIA...OR GO TO WWW.WEATHER.GOV/CAR F


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## tls22 (Sep 30, 2007)

Weatherwizard;611245 said:


> Maybe this will make everyone happy:
> 
> URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
> NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
> ...


Agree....How about this also??????

weather.gov 
National Weather Service

Watches, Warnings & Advisories
Local weather forecast by "City, St" or zip code 
3 products issued by NWS for: North Platte NE
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Winter Storm Watch
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
329 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2008

...THE FIRST WINTER STORM OF THE SEASON IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...

.THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A MAJOR WINTER STORM TO IMPACT WESTERN
AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. AN INTENSE...
UPPER LEVEL LOW...WILL DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. AS THIS FEATURE TRACKS SLOWLY EAST...
RAIN IS LIKELY WITH A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

IN ADDITION TO HEAVY SNOW...STRONG WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THE COMBINATION OF HEAVY
SNOW AND WINDS MAY PRODUCE NEAR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS.

NEZ005>010-024>029-035>038-057>059-069>071-220430-
/O.CON.KLBF.WS.A.0006.081022T1100Z-081024T0000Z/
EASTERN CHERRY-KEYA PAHA-BOYD-BROWN-ROCK-HOLT-HOOKER-THOMAS-
BLAINE-LOUP-GARFIELD-WHEELER-ARTHUR-MCPHERSON-LOGAN-CUSTER-KEITH-
PERKINS-LINCOLN-CHASE-HAYES-FRONTIER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...VALENTINE...SPRINGVIEW...SPENCER...
AINSWORTH...BASSETT...ONEILL...MULLEN...THEDFORD...DUNNING...
TAYLOR...BURWELL...BARTLETT...ARTHUR...TRYON...STAPLETON...
BROKEN BOW...OGALLALA...GRANT...NORTH PLATTE...IMPERIAL...
HAYES CENTER...CURTIS...EUSTIS
329 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2008 /229 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2008/

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...

A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE LATE TONIGHT AS RAIN BEGINS
TO CHANGEOVER TO SNOW FOR WEST TO EAST. SNOW...WHICH MAY BE HEAVY AT
TIMES...WILL BE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN THE WATCH
AREA. IN ADDITION TO HEAVY SNOW...VERY STRONG NORTHERLY
WINDS...WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS TO 60 MPH...WILL PRODUCE WHITEOUT
CONDITIONS. TRAVEL WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD BECOME IMPOSSIBLE.

IT IS STILL UNCERTAIN WHEN THE RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW WEDNESDAY
THIS SHOULD BECOME CLEARER LATER TONIGHT AND DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY.

CURRENT FORECAST TRENDS HAVE THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL EAST OF A LINE
FROM IMPERIAL TO NORTH PLATTE...THEDFORD AND ONEILL. AS THE TRACK
OF THE SYSTEM AND ITS POTENTIAL IMPACTS BECOME BETTER DEFINED...APPROPRIATE
WARNINGS AND OR ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED.

PERSONS ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS ON NOAA
WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER MEDIA OUTLETS.


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## SnoFarmer (Oct 15, 2004)

All that says is "mud" to me...
--------------------------------------
on average when does the ground freeze?

It may not be a weather Q? but I'm sure it effects it.


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## tls22 (Sep 30, 2007)

Yeah ground is still way to warm!


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## Weatherwizard (Oct 17, 2008)

It will be snowing in Connecticut Tomm, first time a flake will appear this fall.

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?site=aly&FcstType=text&site=ALY&map.x=212&map.y=210


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## bribrius (May 5, 2007)

SnoFarmer;611254 said:


> All that says is "mud" to me...
> --------------------------------------
> on average when does the ground freeze?
> 
> It may not be a weather Q? but I'm sure it effects it.


better be my plow isnt running. i just pulled it out yesterday. Think its the filter though, minor.
Anything but rain and it will melt away anyway.

edit.
that is odd. i just had the boat out the other day and put that away yesterday. either my boating schedule is running late (which it isnt i usually keep it out into fall) or the colder temperatures are earlier.


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## tls22 (Sep 30, 2007)

bribrius;611280 said:


> better be my plow isnt running. i just pulled it out yesterday. Think its the filter though, minor.
> Anything but rain and it will melt away anyway.
> 
> edit.
> that is odd. i just had the boat out the other day and put that away yesterday. either my boating schedule is running late (which it isnt i usually keep it out into fall) or the colder temperatures are earlier.


Your okay bri, need a few days below 32 for the ground to be ready!


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## Grampa Plow (Sep 1, 2008)

Mid....you took the words right outta my mount! I was laughing like hell one day after hearing (for the 100th time) "this afternoon's outlook snow flurries" when I called the weather boys and said we had over 2" inches of "flurries!"


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## Weatherwizard (Oct 17, 2008)

*FROM ACCU Weather (Henry) biased snow lover*

COLD AND SNOWY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND GREAT LAKES. WARM ACROSS THE WEST, WARM AND DRY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. COLD SHOTS INTO THE PLAINS.

Discussion: There is no overall clear signal to this winter's weather. We are in a neutral phase of the ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) event, which neither the La Nina nor El Nino conditions will dominate. I guess one could say that the clear signal is no signal from any ENSO events. The winter forecast is primarily based on the neutral ENSO and pattern recognition from this summer's pattern and the early fall weather. We have seen the axis of the trough last winter over the western Mississippi Valley, but over the summer that axis has shifted into the Ohio and Tennessee valleys. We have also seen the extension of the tropical ridge across the Southeast and the Gulf of Mexico, which accounts for the hurricane tracks this year. I believe that ridge will break down and the winter jet, once it sets in, will tend to buckle over the Ohio and Tennessee valleys. We should also have a strong jet plowing into the Pacific Northwest, which will lead to frequent storms in the Pacific Northwest. The other storm tracks will be a clipper pattern that will bring snow from the Midwest to New England and a coastal storm track that will lead to at least one or two major snow events in the I-95 corridor.

Starting in the West: The overall weather will be warm and dry as the ridge position remains stationary. I don't see a lot of storms hitting California, which means a high fire danger later in the winter.

The Plains: While not all that snowy, there will be frequent shots of arctic air. These will be quick shots, lasting a day or so before the warm air returns. Freezing drizzle and freezing rain might be the dominant precipitation because low-level, cold air is in place.

The Southeast: I think the Southeast will end up on the warm and dry side. This will not be good news for the Southeast, but the reality of the pattern shaping up for the winter.

For snow lovers, the Great Lakes and Northeast is the place to be as clipper-type systems will bring small amounts of snow, but frequent snow events.

I think the I-95 corridor folks from Richmond to Boston could finally have the snowstorms they so wished for. I think at least one or two major nor'easters will hit that area with snow events in the 6- to 18-inch range.


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## Weatherwizard (Oct 17, 2008)

I still completely disagree


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## tls22 (Sep 30, 2007)

You finally coming over to the darkside weather wizard? I had a inch of snow at my place last week!


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## Weatherwizard (Oct 17, 2008)

bad sign early snow means warm winter


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## mike33087 (Feb 9, 2005)

*hahahah*



Weatherwizard;625810 said:


> bad sign early snow means warm winter


lol since when? we did alright last winter and it snowed 12/3 here! are you even a meteorologist?


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## Weatherwizard (Oct 17, 2008)

12/3 is not 11/3 you said you already had your first inch of snow!

I should of never reactivated this thread, I'll be here to rain on the parade of all the wishful thinkers, that think they have this winter predicted (wishful thinking, and I have the same wishful thinking), that's what kills me, I want snow, but it isn't there!


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## FordFisherman (Dec 5, 2007)

Soooo Mr. weatherwizard....Whats _your_ prediction for the northeast and what are you basing it on? Do you have information that contradicts accuweather, or just a gut feeling?(Nothing personal but I hope your wrongpayup)


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## hydro_37 (Sep 10, 2006)

Weatherwizard;625824 said:


> 12/3 is not 11/3 you said you already had your first inch of snow!
> 
> I should of never reactivated this thread, I'll be here to rain on the parade of all the wishful thinkers, that think they have this winter predicted (wishful thinking, and I have the same wishful thinking), that's what kills me, I want snow, but it isn't there!


So your saying no one in the US will get snow??
Or just parts will get some snow??


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## tls22 (Sep 30, 2007)

Weatherwizard;625824 said:


> I should of never reactivated this thread, !


First good thing you have said!:waving:


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## mike33087 (Feb 9, 2005)

*lol*



Weatherwizard;625824 said:


> 12/3 is not 11/3 you said you already had your first inch of snow!
> 
> I should of never reactivated this thread, I'll be here to rain on the parade of all the wishful thinkers, that think they have this winter predicted (wishful thinking, and I have the same wishful thinking), that's what kills me, I want snow, but it isn't there!


yea.... i never said anything about 11/3

also whats so bad about wishful thinking... your so defensive its ok to let us dream


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## Grampa Plow (Sep 1, 2008)

HELP...just bought a new truck, plow and spreader...please don't dash my hopes so early...at least wait until March to tell me no snow.


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## Mark Oomkes (Dec 10, 2000)

tls22;626136 said:


> First good thing you have said!:waving:


This from a guy who considers 1" to be a blizzard.

Why don't you just let the guy be, if he's wrong, he said he would admit it and you can bash him all he wants.

Is it against the rules to be wrong? I don't think so, we just had 63 million voters that were wrong.

And you guys all rip on him just because he is saying the opposite of everyone else, yet you *****, piss and moan about those same forecasters who can't get a 24 hour forecast correct.


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## tls22 (Sep 30, 2007)

Mark Oomkes;626414 said:


> This from a guy who considers 1" to be a blizzard.
> 
> Why don't you just let the guy be, if he's wrong, he said he would admit it and you can bash him all he wants.
> 
> ...


MARKY MARK









Marky mark it was sarcasm, i was laying it on pretty thick about the blizzard. You lack a sense of humor! There was a blizzard in Jersey, parts of the state got over 12 inches of snow. So by me saying New jersey October blizzard is true! Jersey is not just the size of my town, sorry to disappoint.

This guy is using facts from 2 years ago, and since when does a early snow mean a warm winter? That is one of the most unrealistic comments i have ever heard! He also stated that there will be a strong la Nina this winter? Another unrealistic statement, we are going into a neutral state. Im sure if this guy was saying Blizzard 8611lp plows don't expand, you would be all over him!:waving:


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## scitown (Dec 9, 2007)

Weatherwizard;625810 said:


> bad sign early snow means warm winter


Do you plow? Are you in this business or are you just trolling the site trying to piss a bunch of plow guys off? This isn't accuplowsite. We are allowed to wishcast. This is not for fun, pretending to be a met on accu and needing some sort of snow to survive winter can not be compared. You need to go back to watching GFS runs and arguing if the storm is going to come back on the short range. You coming in here and putting down people hopes is like one of us going to a forum and telling you World of Warcraft wont exist after tomorrow. Then what would you do? :crying:


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## snow problem (Mar 19, 2007)

LOL, Mark, you look great, was that pitcure taken right after you found out about the 63 million votes that need to get their heads out of their a****..


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## Mark Oomkes (Dec 10, 2000)

snow problem;626464 said:


> LOL, Mark, you look great, was that pitcure taken right after you found out about the 63 million votes that need to get their heads out of their a****..


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## ducatirider944 (Feb 25, 2008)

My forcast is we won't get any snow at all. My reasoning behind this thought is I just dropped thousands of payup on a new pusher box and a new plow. I bought a new plow in 01' after we had almost double the snow fall we normally get in 00' We didn't get sh*t for snow in 01' and I barely paid for the plow and fuel. So no snow for me!:angry:


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## scitown (Dec 9, 2007)

ducatirider944;626487 said:


> My forcast is we won't get any snow at all. My reasoning behind this thought is I just dropped thousands of payup on a new pusher box and a new plow. I bought a new plow in 01' after we had almost double the snow fall we normally get in 00' We didn't get sh*t for snow in 01' and I barely paid for the plow and fuel. So no snow for me!:angry:


Sorry to say I agree. Bought mine last winter...My friend who is also a landscaper thanked me because he was able to finish his fall leaf cleanups in the middle of last winter.


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## REAPER (Nov 23, 2004)

I watched a decent program 2 days ago on History Science channel about weather.

All in all it was informative but in the end the main guy in charge said the most reliable outlook is your local 5 day.

Anything beyond that is a prediction only run from computer models run by individual outlets. A degree change in the wind patterns can change a forecast over night making any long term forecasts useless.


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## Weatherwizard (Oct 17, 2008)

Well It is now the end of November, and I stand on my call for hardly any snow in Southern New England. The weather pattern has been below normal for much of November, and everyone around us from SC, to Tenn, to PA,NJ,OH, etc have seen snow. We have seen none. The weather pattern has about 7-10 days left before a milder flow will take charge. Unfortunately for the next 7-10 days while the cold is here, there will be no solid precpitation worth noting. The warm air will prevail through X-Mas, so don't expect any snowstorms in Southern New England for at least the next 3-4 weeks.


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## tls22 (Sep 30, 2007)

Weatherwizard;653670 said:


> Well It is now the end of November, and I stand on my call for hardly any snow in Southern New England. The weather pattern has been below normal for much of November, and everyone around us from SC, to Tenn, to PA,NJ,OH, etc have seen snow.Correct, i thought you said we will not see any below normal temps? Plus snow in November along the coast line? I dont remember that happening much! Snow in November in SNE is a bonus, and somthing that does not happen year to year! We have seen none. The weather pattern has about 7-10 days left before a milder flow will take charge. Unfortunately for the next 7-10 days while the cold is here, there will be no solid precipitation worth noting. Milder flow? euro and gfs point to a ridge in the west and trough in the east, with a tanking nao in the coming weeks. What models do you look at? Solid precipitation? We have a rain event coming up th coast, which is going to provide heavy rain along the coast and snow further inland!! Where do you get your information? We where below normal all last week, if anything now we are going to be in the 40's and 50's this week, with a artic front coming threw Thursday night. 40's and 50's is normal for this time of year. The warm air will prevail through X-Mas, so don't expect any snowstorms in Southern New England for at least the next 3-4 weeks.Wow that going out on a limb, being its going to get cold at the end of the week! I think your about a week behind on things, going off last years stats and last weeks weather. There is nothing in your rambling that makes any sense and is back by any information. I remember you saying it was going to be mild all winter, we have been below avg so far. People around the great lakes have double or triple there snowfall so far for the month of November!.


Im starting to think you just a troll trying to get a bunch of plow guys in a frenzy! You don't post much on any other thread, except this one. Why come on a board that are filled with guys that want snow and say no snow all winter, and bring nothing to back the information up? I think you just get some kind of kick doing this, to make up for your own insecurities!


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## Weatherwizard (Oct 17, 2008)

Bring this thread back up just before X-Mas and we'll talk about it, I made my forecast, I'm interesred in addressing someone that just wants to go tit-for-tat, act like an adult please and treat people like human beings, not try to criticize and dissect every single word. Good grief, this is an open forum, not a venue to try to belittle another human being, who disagrees with you. Get off your self-rightous keyboard that just wants to denegrate anyone who has an opinion other than your ow, Wonderful contribution, God Bless!


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## tls22 (Sep 30, 2007)

Weatherwizard;653719 said:


> Bring this thread back up just before X-Mas and we'll talk about it, I made my forecast, I'm interesred in addressing someone that just wants to go tit-for-tat, act like an adult please and treat people like human beings, not try to criticize and dissect every single word.I think you forgot "not". You still have not answer any of my question! Good grief, this is an open forum, not a venue to try to belittle another human being, who disagrees with you.A forum in which we like statement back up with facts. Why have all your post be in this one thread? ! Get off your self-rightous keyboard that just wants to denegrate anyone who has an opinion other than your ow, Wonderful contribution, God Bless!I dont need you blessing, thankyou! I feel you like to stir stuff up, in-which you keep bumping a thread that was controversial already!


Hey i love a good weather discussion, i think i would take you more realistic if you back your thoughts up with facts. I think you just post, then sign off to see who will quote and have a discussion with you. That or you just hop from forum to forum!


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## Mike_PS (Feb 28, 2005)

ok, I think we all get the point and no sense in keeping this thread since it's just turned into an unnecessary argument


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