# EL NINO BUZZ... 2009-2010 Winter comes up close to now



## rob guarino (Sep 12, 2012)

http://www.liveweatherblogs.com/ind...scussion&groupid=4331&topicid=8228&Itemid=179

Check out how the sea surface temps and trends are lining up like the winter of 2009-2010. *We don't* need a BIG EL NINO to have a BIG WINTER

---Meteorologist Rob Guarino
Founder Liveweatherblogs.com:waving:


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## unit28 (Jan 1, 2007)

Most of the dynamical models, along with roughly one-half of the statistical models, now predict
the onset of El Niño beginning in August-October 2012, persisting through the remainder of the year
(Figs. F1-F13). The consensus of dynamical models indicates a borderline moderate strength event
(Niño 3.4 index near +1.0°C), while the statistical model consensus indicates a borderline weak
El Niño (+0.4° to +0.5°C). Supported by the model forecasts and the continued warmth across the
Pacifi c Ocean, the offi cial forecast calls for the development of most likely a weak El Niño during
September 2012, persisting through December-February 2012-13.


Weekly updates of oceanic and atmospheric conditions are available on the Climate Prediction
Center homepage (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions).

Last year I claimed this would turn out to be a season of grasshoppers.
Now, going into 2013....I'm putting in a pool.

Good Night


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## FISHERBOY (Aug 13, 2007)

I wouldn;t believe anything the CPC says


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## unit28 (Jan 1, 2007)

looking at statistical performance from modeling data-sets....It ain't a bad gamble.

At lead times of 3 or more months into the future, statistical and dynamical models that incorporate information about the ocean's observed subsurface thermal structure generally exhibit higher predictive skill than those that do not. For the Dec-Feb season, among models that do use subsurface temperature information, 20% predict ENSO-neutral SSTs, and *80% predict El Niño conditions.*

I'll take the odds.


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