# El Nino late 2015



## Dogplow Dodge (Jan 23, 2012)

Just heard a report of being walloped by years end by the impending weather changes.. 

Woo hoo !!!!!

Me likely !!!


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## FISHERBOY (Aug 13, 2007)

*el nino*



Dogplow Dodge;2014965 said:


> Just heard a report of being walloped by years end by the impending weather changes..
> 
> Woo hoo !!!!!
> 
> Me likely !!!


Right now theres a lot of uncertainty about how this el nino is going to behave, the only info Ive heard is winter may start mild, but then after the new year it may get cranking. Ill have more details in the next few months. I'm just glad I have not more seasonal contracts.


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## CityGuy (Dec 19, 2008)

Dogplow Dodge;2014965 said:


> Just heard a report of being walloped by years end by the impending weather changes..
> 
> Woo hoo !!!!!
> 
> Me likely !!!


I've heard the same. Only time will tell at this point.


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## Mark Oomkes (Dec 10, 2000)

Facebook says winter is coming.


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## BUFF (Dec 24, 2009)

Facebook.......Pfftttt Punk stuff.......:waving:

The NTAC's can't forecast two days out on a good day........

El Nino or El Barto who cares, winters coming, we'll piss and moan about not getting snow then piss and moan about it never stopping. Finally we'll piss and moan about late pays and how money is tight. The season will be a repeat of countless others..........Thumbs Up


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## Sawboy (Dec 18, 2005)

BUFF;2016585 said:


> Facebook.......Pfftttt Punk stuff.......:waving:
> 
> The NTAC's can't forecast two days out on a good day........
> 
> El Nino or El Barto who cares, winters coming, we'll piss and moan about not getting snow then piss and moan about it never stopping. Finally we'll piss and moan about late pays and how money is tight. The season will be a repeat of countless others..........Thumbs Up


And that concludes the use of this forum. Pull the plug! :salute:


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## gc3 (Dec 6, 2007)

Last winter was rumored to be the worst also. It was a big BUST.


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## Mark Oomkes (Dec 10, 2000)

gc3;2016593 said:


> Last winter was rumored to be the worst also. It was a big BUST.


Last winter was great, except for December.


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## AccuCon (Jan 31, 2013)

Funny thing about weather.......

Well I'm sure there is something funny about it

I feel we are back in a good cycle (At least for the North East) for snow, but meh who knows


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## gc3 (Dec 6, 2007)

Mark Oomkes;2016648 said:


> Last winter was great, except for December.


It was great in your area. Lake effect helps. New York and eastern areas great also. I think I went out 6 times. This year I hope will be better


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## truckitup (Aug 21, 2011)

gc3;2017590 said:


> It was great in your area. Lake effect helps. New York and eastern areas great also. I think I went out 6 times. This year I hope will be better


I would be jumping up and down if only went out 6 times. I have mostly seasonal accounts.


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## SnoFarmer (Oct 15, 2004)

El Nino = lake effect rain.......

to warm for snow.


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## CityGuy (Dec 19, 2008)

BUFF;2016585 said:


> Facebook.......Pfftttt Punk stuff.......:waving:
> 
> The NTAC's can't forecast two days out on a good day........
> 
> El Nino or El Barto who cares, winters coming, we'll piss and moan about not getting snow then piss and moan about it never stopping. Finally we'll piss and moan about late pays and how money is tight. The season will be a repeat of countless others..........Thumbs Up


Very true.


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## JustJeff (Sep 9, 2009)

GC3, where are you at? I'm in Illinois as well, and I was out at least 17 times last Winter.


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## gc3 (Dec 6, 2007)

Harleyjeff;2017702 said:


> GC3, where are you at? I'm in Illinois as well, and I was out at least 17 times last Winter.


Rockford area. Some of those storms just barely missed me. The guy I sub for on some storms also just salted only on the lots trying to save some money.


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## SnoFarmer (Oct 15, 2004)

:laughing:
Stock up on salt.
That rain down south in ill will freez after the front passes.

The polar vortex:laughing: what ever that is....

The northern jet stream will stay to the north for the most part when any moisture is in the regen.

I rember winters where it raind 7 out of 10 events...


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## AccuCon (Jan 31, 2013)

SnoFarmer;2017732 said:


> :laughing:
> Stock up on salt.
> That rain down south in ill will freez after the front passes.
> 
> ...


The Polar Vortex
http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/detect/climate-strat.shtml

Just because it became a main stream buzz word doesn't mean it always wasn't a scientific term...I only say this because you :laughing: after it like it was some made up thing...

However a lot of people (universities, climatologists, etc) are favoring a Strong El Nino through the winter with even a Super El Nino in the early fall....Much like back in 97-98 and 82-83...However in 97-98 we didn't have this stubborn Polar Vortex shift that has been hanging around the past couple years...

See how it effects the forecast temps








That's actually predicting a colder winter than last year

Interesting:
http://firsthandweather.com/930/early-2015-16-winter-forecast-a-regional-breakdown/


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## BUFF (Dec 24, 2009)




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## AccuCon (Jan 31, 2013)

HAHA Nice Buff

In all seriousness I wonder if some of us should be planning on using more de-icer than usual, in case it is a more rainy winter. Though if it stays colder like the models are speculating (key word) I guess it could be more pushes...Oh the joy


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## Dogplow Dodge (Jan 23, 2012)

Channel 5 claims Godzilla El Nino is on its way !!!!

Omg, what will I do ??? 

Buy more shovels.


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## SnoFarmer (Oct 15, 2004)

AccuCon;2017736 said:


> The Polar Vortex
> http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/detect/climate-strat.shtml
> 
> Just because it became a main stream buzz word doesn't mean it always wasn't a scientific term...I only say this because you :laughing: after it like it was some made up thing...
> ...


Poler vortex is slang...
A catch phase at best....
A low is a vortex , a tornado is a vortex,,, etc etc
So yea :laughing:
The term should make a "weather guesser " cringe.



BUFF;2017773 said:


>


X2 Thumbs Up


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## FISHERBOY (Aug 13, 2007)

THATS the JAMSTEC model, what its seeing is the warmest of water, in the western part & central part, THIS IS NOT GOING TO BE A SUPER NINO, THE MAIN STREAM MEDIA IS SO OVER HYPING THIS, Mondays update shows el nino peaking in late October. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ninoareas_c.jpg
FYI Polar vortex is not slang or a catch phase 
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polar_vortex


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## Mark Oomkes (Dec 10, 2000)

FISHERBOY;2017893 said:


> THATS the JAMSTEC model, what its seeing is the warmest of water, in the western part & central part, THIS IS NOT GOING TO BE A SUPER NINO, *THE MAIN STREAM MEDIA IS SO OVER HYPING THIS*, Mondays update shows el nino peaking in late October. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ninoareas_c.jpg
> FYI Polar vortex is not slang or a catch phase
> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polar_vortex


What?????

Say it isn't so.


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## Dogplow Dodge (Jan 23, 2012)

These news people are funny...and so are the climatologists....

*What it normally means for the continental U.S. is wetter than normal weather on the west coast.
"It could mean about a 60 to 70 percent better chance for above normal precipitation along the west coast." says Browning. "It could help with California's drought but there have been strong El Nino years. in the mid 1960s, that have produced below normal precipitation."*

http://stlouis.cbslocal.com/2015/08...c-st-louis-meteorologist-studies-impact-here/

http://www.usatoday.com/videos/weather/2015/08/14/31699097/

Impending doom !!!


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## FISHERBOY (Aug 13, 2007)

right Now the warmest water should be focused for the winter in nino 3.4& 4 those winters tend to produce big winters in the east, but el nino is only a small part of the puzzle, stay tuned for more info


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## FISHERBOY (Aug 13, 2007)

Dogplow Dodge;2017950 said:


> These news people are funny...and so are the climatologists....
> 
> *What it normally means for the continental U.S. is wetter than normal weather on the west coast.
> "It could mean about a 60 to 70 percent better chance for above normal precipitation along the west coast." says Browning. "It could help with California's drought but there have been strong El Nino years. in the mid 1960s, that have produced below normal precipitation."*
> ...


there not taking into account the very warm water in the northern pacific, which produces a trough around the Aleutian islands and ridge on the west coast, and a trough in the east , that warm water isn't going away anytime soon


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## Mark Oomkes (Dec 10, 2000)

It seems like they always ignore the PDO as well.


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## BUFF (Dec 24, 2009)

Hurricane season should be a pretty good indicator of what winter could be during an El Nino.
It would seem South America is excided about something........


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## AccuCon (Jan 31, 2013)

SnoFarmer;2017864 said:


> Poler vortex is slang...
> A catch phase at best....
> A low is a vortex , a tornado is a vortex,,, etc etc
> So yea :laughing:
> ...


Where are you making this up its slang????

Here a Wikipedia description since apparently the NOAA one wasnt good enough:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polar_vortex

Case in point from the above source:

"The polar vortex was first described as early as 1853.The phenomenon's sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) appears during the winter in the Northern Hemisphere and was discovered in 1952 with radiosonde observations at altitudes higher than 20 km."

Slang from 1853...Ok buddy Thumbs Up

It seems that a lot of emphasis is being put on the terms "what usually happens" in all the reports. My guess is because their are other factors involved here that are acting as usual, such as the NAO etc.

It should def. make for some interesting activity/discussion the next few months as we get closer to winter. I was reading something that we may see yet another Western Ridge / Eastern Trough for a 3rd straight winter in a row. Now if the NAO is on track for being more negative then the last two winters, well....


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## AccuCon (Jan 31, 2013)

Just a heads up this is ENSO Event...drum roll please.... BRUCE LEE Thumbs Up

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/july-2015-el-niño-update-bruce-lee


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## Longae29 (Feb 15, 2008)

Did you guys know that el nino is Spanish for "the nino"


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## Mark Oomkes (Dec 10, 2000)

I'm waiting to hear from Ryan or Bastardi. Or both.


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## FISHERBOY (Aug 13, 2007)

Mark Oomkes;2018144 said:


> I'm waiting to hear from Ryan or Bastardi. Or both.


Bastardi has a pretty aggressive winter forecast, he posts a free video on his site weatherbell.com every Saturday


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## peteo1 (Jul 4, 2011)

Not to get off topic but am I the only one who thinks of Chris Farley every time someone says el nino?


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## hansenslawncare (Feb 23, 2012)

Here's my thoughts:

They could forecast for a light winter in terms of total inches of snow...but even if we only had 20 inches of snow; if they were all 1" snow storms we'd be busy on the commercial side.

It's all about how much snow falls per snow storm...we don't need big snow falls; just a lot of small 1 and 2 inchers...

Unless you have big commercials where you maintain on an inch basis.

Either way; I stick to this:

The 5 P's

Proper
Planning
Prevents
Poor 
Performance


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## Mark Oomkes (Dec 10, 2000)

A few years back over all our winter was horrible, if you like bigger snows. In January,we had 19 or 21 saltings, but only a few pushes. Biggest accumulation was 2". 

Revenue wise it was awesome.


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## 1olddogtwo (Aug 6, 2007)

Mark Oomkes;2018466 said:


> A few years back over all our winter was horrible, if you like bigger snows. In January,we had 19 or 21 saltings, but only a few pushes. Biggest accumulation was 2".
> 
> Revenue wise it was awesome.


Good thing salt prices are down.


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## Italiano67 (Feb 16, 2005)

Every El Nino I remember has been a sparse season for snow. Pretty much like last years 30 inches.


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## hansenslawncare (Feb 23, 2012)

*Old Farmers Almanac*

What about the "Old Farmers Almanac" ??? Not the other Farmers Almanac; bu the Old one...I just read there's a difference.

Anyways; the Old just put out their predictions; looks interesting.


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## Mark Oomkes (Dec 10, 2000)

hansenslawncare;2018697 said:


> What about the "Old Farmers Almanac" ??? Not the other Farmers Almanac; bu the Old one...I just read there's a difference.
> 
> Anyways; the Old just put out their predictions; looks interesting.


It looks very interesting, and they were very close last year.


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## BUFF (Dec 24, 2009)

A few local stations have been talking about Godzuki, Denver's average snow is about 60" El Barto years 75-100" have been the totals.


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## FISHERBOY (Aug 13, 2007)

*Latest update*

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf


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## AccuCon (Jan 31, 2013)

Everything I've been seeing lately is that the Northeast is going to see average to above average snowfall...Temps wont drop until later in the fall though....

It also looks like the Midwest and lakes region is going to see less than average snow...This is just from all the reports of seen...

Though the Mountains in the west may see some above average snow...guess they need to make up for last year...

Few links to peruse: 
http://firsthandweather.com/930/early-2015-16-winter-forecast-a-regional-breakdown/

http://kasimsweatherwatcher.com/uswinter-2015-2016-prediction/


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## SnoFarmer (Oct 15, 2004)

Remember what happened last time?
less snow,=rain.....

a good year to stock up on salt.....
funny how it will be warmer north but cooler in the south???
hummmmm


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## BUFF (Dec 24, 2009)

SnoFarmer;2019569 said:


> Remember what happened last time?
> less snow,=rain.....
> 
> a good year to stock up on salt.....
> ...


Maybe the place to be would be the Wintery Battle zone, we could paint Confederate flags on our plows.........Thumbs Up


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## AccuCon (Jan 31, 2013)

Lol buff

This is another good read with lots of information...
http://www.gavsweathervids.com/united-states-winter-2015-16-forecast.php

From all I've seen, read, etc. it seems as though its a pretty good bet this winter is going to be like the past 2


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## allagashpm (Sep 29, 2012)

I don't understand how El nino gives northeast a worse winter? Is it the increased precipitation in the west moves east? 
It seems like we would have a more mild winter with a strong El nino


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## FISHERBOY (Aug 13, 2007)

allagashpm;2019673 said:


> I don't understand how El nino gives northeast a worse winter? Is it the increased precipitation in the west moves east?
> It seems like we would have a more mild winter with a strong El nino


I CAN break that down for you nino regions are broken into different segments, nino 1-2 is located near the coast of south America, 3 is located in the central pacific, and 4 is located near the western pacific, near the date line. Current forecasts show this el nino fading in regions 1-2, and the warmest waters focused in regions 3 to 4. Typically when the warmest water are in 3-4 the northeast tends to have cold and snowy winters, 1-2 like 97-98 el nino we have mild winters, the jet stream changes. 
hope that helpsThumbs Up


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## BUFF (Dec 24, 2009)

'97-'98 the central Rockies got hammered with snow.


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## SnoFarmer (Oct 15, 2004)

xyz..................


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## BUFF (Dec 24, 2009)

Ou812...........


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## SnoFarmer (Oct 15, 2004)

isp8itout.


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## SnoFarmer (Oct 15, 2004)

The winter of 1997-1998 was one of the warmest on record. Winter is often defined by climatologists as the months of December, January, and February ("meteorological winter"). Minnesota experienced unusually mild temperatures in each of these months. The state-wide average temperature for December, 1997 was 23.6 degrees F, which is 10.8 degrees above normal. January's average temperature was a mild 14.0, above the norm by 7.1 degrees. The month of February was extraordinarily warm, averaging 28.0 degrees, exceeding the normal by 14.9 degrees. The temperature for the 1997-1998 meteorological winter (December - February) averaged 21.9 statewide, which makes places this Winter second only to 1877-1878. The Winter of 1877-1878 is far and away the warmest Minnesota winter of the post-settlement era.

The winter of 1877-1878 -- the so-called winter without a winter -- was one of the most extreme and anomalous events in Upper Midwest meteorological history. Average temperatures at the St. Paul Signal Corps station were far above winter normals: 34 F in December 1877 (with an overnight minimum temperature of 45 F on 22 December), 22 F in January 1878, 32 F in February 1878 and 45 F in March 1878. As these values suggest, springlike temperatures prevailed throughout much of the winter, provoking the 2 March 1878 edition of the St. Paul Pioneer Press to comment that "....yesterday was the first day of spring, in theory, but in fact we have had the first days of spring nearly all winter...."

global cooling.......


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## BUFF (Dec 24, 2009)

Going back to 1997,
http://www.thedenverchannel.com/weather/october-snow-will-it-rival-deadly-1997-storm-

One of eastern Colorado's worst and deadliest blizzards occurred Oct. 24 to Oct. 26, 1997. The storm slammed the region with snow measured in feet and winds that approached hurricane-force in some areas.
Much like the current storm, that storm from 12 years ago was caused by a closed area of low pressure over Utah that slowly drifted along the southern border of Colorado. The low pressure stalled out near the Texas panhandle and tapped into moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. The result was an extended period with snowfall rates of 1-2 inches per hour.

Along with the snow came strong northerly winds of 40-60 mph and bitter cold temperatures. Denver reached a low of 3 degrees on Oct. 26, 1997.

When the storm was over, snow totals ranged from 14 to 31 inches across the Denver metro area with 2 to 4 feet in the foothills


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## snowman55 (Nov 20, 2007)

BUFF;2019741 said:


> Going back to 1997,
> http://www.thedenverchannel.com/weather/october-snow-will-it-rival-deadly-1997-storm-
> 
> One of eastern Colorado's worst and deadliest blizzards occurred Oct. 24 to Oct. 26, 1997. The storm slammed the region with snow measured in feet and winds that approached hurricane-force in some areas.
> ...


I was in Colorado hunting elk that year. Barely got out of mountains stuck in Colorado Springs for a couple days. It was crazy.


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## TheXpress2002 (Oct 9, 2007)

If you look at the data past the peak of this "media agenda driven El Nino" (as I call it) it tanks and tanks hard. I believe this leads to a very active and colder solution for the latter half of winter. 

Side note...

With how much change our climate is experiencing it's hard to take an average of the past 100 years and apply it to our current state. So a forecast of 1 or 2 degrees above average serves no purpose to those individuals who's 10 year average is 6 to 8 degrees below what our 100 year average is. That's why the CPC data is always skewed.


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## FISHERBOY (Aug 13, 2007)

*Hi*

yes el nino should be peak in the next month, pretty much I would prepare for a productive January -march, based on current data


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## SnowFakers (Dec 31, 2012)

Wasn't last year suppose to be bad due to an "el camino" or whatever its called :laughing:


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## FISHERBOY (Aug 13, 2007)

*Hi*

YES last season was a west based Modiko el nino, this season more of central based


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## Bossman 92 (Sep 27, 2006)

FISHERBOY;2026952 said:


> YES last season was a west based Modiko el nino, this season more of central based


What's it lookin like for Ohio? Please and thank you! :waving:


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## truckitup (Aug 21, 2011)

what ever it is going to be I want it to be warmer with less snow then the last two years. been losing my a** the last two years on seasonal contracts. 

It could be worse though I could live in Buffalo!!!!! GV


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## SnoFarmer (Oct 15, 2004)

.............For the U.S. overall this winter, based in large part on presence of the strong El Niño, forecasters are favoring above average precipitation in the southern parts of the U.S., from California to Florida. Forecasts show below average precipitation for the northern Rockies, Great Lakes, western Alaska and Hawaii, and with above average temperatures in Alaska, Hawaii and the northern tier of the country.


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## SnoFarmer (Oct 15, 2004)

Or you can get your weather from Chris


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## carrfamily01 (Oct 4, 2009)

BUFF;2016585 said:


> Facebook.......Pfftttt Punk stuff.......:waving:
> 
> The NTAC's can't forecast two days out on a good day........
> 
> El Nino or El Barto who cares, winters coming, we'll piss and moan about not getting snow then piss and moan about it never stopping. Finally we'll piss and moan about late pays and how money is tight. The season will be a repeat of countless others..........Thumbs Up


Well said! We all do it though!:laughing:


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## BUFF (Dec 24, 2009)

carrfamily01;2031320 said:


> Well said! We all do it though!:laughing:


Not everyone...... I'm proud to say no one in my house has a FB account which pisses off everyone in our family that is because that's how they prefer to communicate.


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## 1olddogtwo (Aug 6, 2007)

No Facebook here


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## Dogplow Dodge (Jan 23, 2012)

Family does Facebook.

I can't. Its against my religion. 

I will admit, I do text, email and go on this site to get my communication high daily. Texting, however, I primarily use to get info or addresses, or time for dinner. Oh yeah, to send pictures of my dogs tho Buff, as her a softie for pooches.


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## TheXpress2002 (Oct 9, 2007)

Great Article......

http://chicagoweathercenter.com/blo...n-this-winters-weather-isnt-nearly-as-certain


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## Mark Oomkes (Dec 10, 2000)

Very interesting indeed.


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## AccuCon (Jan 31, 2013)

Is not joining Facebook a sign you're a psychopath? Some employers and psychologists say staying away from social media is 'suspicious'

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...e-employers-psychologists-say-suspicious.html

HAHAHAHA


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## BUFF (Dec 24, 2009)

AccuCon;2035638 said:


> Is not joining Facebook a sign you're a psychopath? Some employers and psychologists say staying away from social media is 'suspicious'
> 
> http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...e-employers-psychologists-say-suspicious.html
> 
> HAHAHAHA


They can make what claim they want. FaceBook is just another passing fad for those who have meaningless lives and seek attention.
Also my wife had me tested and I'm not a psychopath.Thumbs Up


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## Mark Oomkes (Dec 10, 2000)

BUFF;2035656 said:


> They can make what claim they want. FaceBook is just another passing fad for those who have meaningless lives and seek attention.
> Also my wife had me tested and I'm not a psychopath.Thumbs Up


I tested myself.


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## Bossman 92 (Sep 27, 2006)

TheXpress2002;2035342 said:


> Great Article......
> 
> http://chicagoweathercenter.com/blo...n-this-winters-weather-isnt-nearly-as-certain


What do you think is going to happen Ryan? You always seem to have the MI weather pretty well down Thumbs Up


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## LapeerLandscape (Dec 29, 2012)

Mark Oomkes;2035663 said:


> I tested myself.


I am tested everyday and I'm borderline.


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## BUFF (Dec 24, 2009)

Mark Oomkes;2035663 said:


> I tested myself.


I hope you did that behind closed doors.Thumbs Up


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## TheXpress2002 (Oct 9, 2007)

Bossman 92;2035666 said:


> What do you think is going to happen Ryan? You always seem to have the MI weather pretty well down Thumbs Up


I see an overall average winter. Slow start Nov/Dec with an end loaded senerio of Jan/Feb/Mar. With the temperature battleground over the top of St Louis to Cleveland line more than likely a few ice systems will be thrown into the mix. Larger systems will make up our seasonal snow totals rather than the nickel and diming of smaller systems.


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## Mark Oomkes (Dec 10, 2000)

Bossman 92;2035666 said:


> What do you think is going to happen Ryan? You always seem to have the MI weather pretty well down Thumbs Up


He's too busy washing the bosses car and shopping for matching manpris, socks and sandals to give us weather reports anymore.


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## TheXpress2002 (Oct 9, 2007)

Mark Oomkes;2035678 said:


> He's too busy washing the bosses car and shopping for matching manpris, socks and sandals to give us weather reports anymore.


Hate wearing shorts, socks are restricting, long live flip flops.


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## AccuCon (Jan 31, 2013)

Facebook is hardly a passing fad, unless 11 year fads exist...Any who moving along

I also see it is really going to depend on where yo are located this year for what to expect for winter...Like the Midwest and the northern plains its not looking so hot...The Mid-Atlantic to southern New England is looking more favorable and so is the south...

I found this site showing precipitation amounts for El Nino years in the past...And low and behold the mid atlantic and north east tend to do better more often then not...

http://www.wrcc.dri.edu/enso/uspmaps.html


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## Mark Oomkes (Dec 10, 2000)

AccuCon;2035930 said:


> Facebook is hardly a passing fad, unless 11 year fads exist...Any who moving along
> 
> I also see it is really going to depend on where yo are located this year for what to expect for winter...Like the Midwest and the northern plains its not looking so hot...The Mid-Atlantic to southern New England is looking more favorable and so is the south...
> 
> ...


They have no clue, as usual.

FWIW, 4 of the last 6 winters where September has been as above normal as this one have had above normal snowfall.

All they're trying for is headlines, they have no idea. And El Nino doesn't necessarily mean what they say it does.


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## MSsnowplowing (Nov 1, 2012)

SnoFarmer;2017657 said:


> El Nino = lake effect rain.......
> 
> to warm for snow.


Good because 99% of my contracts are seasonal.


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## AccuCon (Jan 31, 2013)

Mark Oomkes;2036001 said:


> They have no clue, as usual.
> 
> FWIW, 4 of the last 6 winters where September has been as above normal as this one have had above normal snowfall.
> 
> All they're trying for is headlines, they have no idea. And El Nino doesn't necessarily mean what they say it does.


And people thinking El Nino is the only driving factor watch nothing but main stream news....

Side note in 1804 October 9th (last Friday) there was a Snowicaine in New England dropped like 24"+/- of snow in places with 150mph sustained winds...HOLY 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1804_Snow_hurricane


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## Mark Oomkes (Dec 10, 2000)

I've seen a bunch of wooly bear caterpillars, I think it's going to snow.


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## SnoFarmer (Oct 15, 2004)

MSsnowplowing;2036035 said:


> Good because 99% of my contracts are seasonal.


I didn't know lake effect snow from Lake Superior made it that far?

one reason we get rain is that the lake stays warm on ElNino years. so it effects our weather.


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## SnoFarmer (Oct 15, 2004)

The strongest El Niño was the 2.3 event in 1997-98. The current figure for this year's El Niño is 1.0, but it's been climbing for four straight months. Almost every forecast predicts that this year's El Niño will climb above 2.0 -- and many are forecasting the strongest El Niño since records began in the 1950s


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## TheXpress2002 (Oct 9, 2007)

SnoFarmer;2036884 said:


> The strongest El Niño was the 2.3 event in 1997-98. The current figure for this year's El Niño is 1.0, but it's been climbing for four straight months. Almost every forecast predicts that this year's El Niño will climb above 2.0 -- and many are forecasting the strongest El Niño since records began in the 1950s


True. I believe it peaks in December and drops off hard for the latter part of the winter. When going back through analogs that is very favorable for us January February March and April


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## TheXpress2002 (Oct 9, 2007)

The increase in Siberian snow pack the past couple weeks has been very impressive, along with a very active Pacific in regards to typhoons. Recurving typhoons should provide a wild ride going into the winter months


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## SnoFarmer (Oct 15, 2004)

TheXpress2002;2036915 said:


> True. I believe it peaks in December and drops off hard for the latter part of the winter. When going back through analogs that is very favorable for us January February March and April


it wasn't "favorable " for us untill April.
Then it snowed more in April than it had all year, by May it was back to rain.

The gosip on Facebook is, it may not drop off as fast and linger into the spring.


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## Mark Oomkes (Dec 10, 2000)

Facebook says take a vacay.


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## BUFF (Dec 24, 2009)

Mark Oomkes;2036854 said:


> I've seen a bunch of wooly bear caterpillars, I think it's going to snow.


Sounds more like you were in the UP at a strip club.......


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## SnoFarmer (Oct 15, 2004)

Mark Oomkes;2036854 said:


> I've seen a bunch of wooly bear caterpillars, I think it's going to snow.


? So you have been measuring your caterpillars ?

According to legend, the wider that middle brown section is (i.e., the more brown segments there are), the milder the coming winter will be. Conversely, a narrow brown band is said to predict a harsh winter.

And how are the catipillers in the Galapagos measuring up?


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## TheXpress2002 (Oct 9, 2007)

SnoFarmer;2036923 said:


> it wasn't "favorable " for us untill April.
> Then it snowed more in April than it had all year, by May it was back to rain.
> 
> The gosip on Facebook is, it may not drop off as fast and linger into the spring.


That was a heck of a front for you guys. 50 degree difference from yesterday


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## SnoFarmer (Oct 15, 2004)

TheXpress2002;2036959 said:


> That was a heck of a front for you guys. 50 degree difference from yesterday


No kidding , it was way to hot.
Grouse hunting in a T-shirt and still sweating.


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## LapeerLandscape (Dec 29, 2012)

Big difference in the weather, it 86 in the Keweenaw peninsula (UP) yesterday and now its 58.


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## AccuCon (Jan 31, 2013)

Just ran across this projection for the 2015/16 winter

http://wxedge.com/2015/09/15/winter-2015-2016-weather-forecast/

And they are forecasting some snow in the higher elevations of the northeast for this coming weekend...Nothing crazy


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## SnoFarmer (Oct 15, 2004)

Possible snow in NE Minnesota over the weekend.
below 2000ftpumpkin:


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## to_buy (Dec 19, 2005)

Should have been a meteorologist so I could understand you guys. Just a mechanic looking for you guys to break stuff


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## Charles (Dec 21, 1999)

We will know when the El Nino effect has started when the Storms start rolling into CA.


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## Mark Oomkes (Dec 10, 2000)

Charles;2037161 said:


> We will know when the El Nino effect has started when the Storms start rolling into CA.


Good point Charles.

And if that doesn't show right there that they have no idea what's going to happen, since the storms have not started yet, nothing will.


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## TheXpress2002 (Oct 9, 2007)

Mark Oomkes;2037166 said:


> Good point Charles.
> 
> And if that doesn't show right there that they have no idea what's going to happen, since the storms have not started yet, nothing will.


Glad you have caught on my pupil.


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## FredG (Oct 15, 2012)

BUFF;2016585 said:


> Facebook.......Pfftttt Punk stuff.......:waving:
> 
> The NTAC's can't forecast two days out on a good day........
> 
> El Nino or El Barto who cares, winters coming, we'll piss and moan about not getting snow then piss and moan about it never stopping. Finally we'll piss and moan about late pays and how money is tight. The season will be a repeat of countless others..........Thumbs Up


Well said!


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## Mark Oomkes (Dec 10, 2000)

TheXpress2002;2037169 said:


> Glad you have caught on my pupil.


I'm not as slow as the likes of Defcon.


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## SnoFarmer (Oct 15, 2004)

Charles;2037161 said:


> We will know when the El Nino effect has started when the Storms start rolling into CA.


I was watching the national weather and the map was showing the effects of El Nino with rain and snow cross the south west.

southern cali may get some storms but a lot of it will come up and out of Mexico the move up to southern cali.
this is from OCT 3rd.


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## Charles (Dec 21, 1999)

Could be Snofarmer. Here is a good article on the Subject:

http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/...ino-winter-california-20150821-htmlstory.html


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## FISHERBOY (Aug 13, 2007)

just a lot of hype and mass media bs, this el nino should peak in the next month or so, the years they reference are east based el ninos, farrrrr different than this years. The blob as they say is the PDO, pacific decadal oscillation.


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## Mark Oomkes (Dec 10, 2000)

http://woodtv.com/blog/2015/10/14/sign-of-a-cold-winter-ahead/



> While much of the media is focused on the "Godzilla" El Nino and the implied very warm winter that the strong El Nino might bring, other factors are not indicating a very warm winter for the Great Lakes and Northeast. Look at the map of Northern Hemisphere snow cover. We already have a decent snow cover across much of Alaska, Northern Canada (practically all around Hudson Bay) including Labrador. Look across Siberia west across Russia into Eastern Europe. Read what I wrote last year. Northern Hemisphere snowcover is running more than one standard deviation above average right now. Eurasia snowcover today covers 6.48 million square kilometers. That compares to 5.86 million square kilometers at this time last year. For September, Northern Hemisphere snowcover ranked 14th greatest in 47 years of record. For North America, snowcover was 8th highest in 47 years of record. For Alaska, it was the most snow ever on the ground at the end of Sept. in 47 years of record. Fairbanks AK got 16.4″ of snow in late Sept. Here's Arctic Sea Ice Extent now compared with this week 8 years ago. Antarctic ice extent is above average. Check out the snow in Romania. Finally, check out this picture! The mosquitoes are tough in Alaska!
> 
> Rainfall for the year has been near average for Michigan and much of the country. The real deficits are mainly in California. Here's rainfall this year compared to (average): San Francisco 3.65″ (13.50″), Los Angeles 7.08″ (11.11″), Phoenix 6.23″ (6.15″), Seattle 22.15″ (23.06″), Las Vegas 3.70″ (3.16″). Grand Rapids has had only 24.54″ of precipitation this year, compared to an average-to-date of 30.41″. However, the rain we've had has been timely and sufficient to give us a good growing season in 2015.
> 
> ...


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## FredG (Oct 15, 2012)

FISHERBOY;2037404 said:


> just a lot of hype and mass media bs, this el nino should peak in the next month or so, the years they reference are east based el ninos, farrrrr different than this years. The blob as they say is the PDO, pacific decadal oscillation.


I sat and watched the radar with a big snow cloud coming directly at me out of Buffalo maybe 40 miles wide and never seen plow able snow. I understand this elnino thing and what it has done in past years but who truly knows what it has in store for us.

All of us only benefit when the snow or ice is on the ground and stays and repeats its self shortly after.


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## TheXpress2002 (Oct 9, 2007)

Amazing to see the amount of moisture pouring into Texas (not California). With the buckling jet, the pattern should be an interesting roller coaster forthcoming for the Rockies to the East Coast. One week +10 the following -10 averages. Should be a few suprises precip wise with any interaction with the colder air.


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## FISHERBOY (Aug 13, 2007)

*Weeks*

All the info that ive been given by my weather service, says where about 8-10 weeks away from getting any type of snow, the atmosphere is changing but it takes time, el nino is fading in regions 1-2 which is good sign going forwardThumbs Up


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## TheXpress2002 (Oct 9, 2007)

FISHERBOY;2046172 said:


> All the info that ive been given by my weather service, says where about 8-10 weeks away from getting any type of snow, the atmosphere is changing but it takes time, el nino is fading in regions 1-2 which is good sign going forwardThumbs Up


Looking back to last year, Nuri threw a wrench into our November (of what was to be AV) but seeing the same characteristics in relation to the pattern. Cold signal mid month should keep a few people busy. Everything shows end loaded just like last year.


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## Mark Oomkes (Dec 10, 2000)

TheXpress2002;2046209 said:


> Looking back to last year, Nuri threw a wrench into our November (of what was to be AV) but seeing the same characteristics in relation to the pattern.* Cold signal mid month should keep a few people busy.* Everything shows end loaded just like last year.


If we ignore it, it will go away.


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## 1olddogtwo (Aug 6, 2007)

Chicago is in for the warmest opening week of November in 40 years. Mid 70's mid week.


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## rjigto4oje (Oct 27, 2010)

1olddogtwo;2046223 said:


> Chicago is in for the warmest opening week of November in 40 years. Mid 70's mid week.


How is your long range forcast looking pat


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## SnoFarmer (Oct 15, 2004)

Low 50's all next week.....

And, the farmers almanac hasn't got it right yet this season.


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## 1olddogtwo (Aug 6, 2007)

rjigto4oje;2046226 said:


> How is your long range forcast looking pat


14th/15th timeframe.. looks like we may have some flurry action


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## TheXpress2002 (Oct 9, 2007)

Should be a nice 40 degree drop late next weekend...


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## Mark Oomkes (Dec 10, 2000)

TheXpress2002;2046244 said:


> Should be a nice 40 degree drop late next weekend...


Good thing it's going to be 80 next week................


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## SnoFarmer (Oct 15, 2004)

..................


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## TheXpress2002 (Oct 9, 2007)

The cfsv2 backing off the torch idea month long trending towards the Ecmwf weeklies which has had the flip for awhile.

The cold shot early next week should be transient, with a gradual drop there after.

Sorry can't post the Euro


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## 1olddogtwo (Aug 6, 2007)

Ah, such fond memories of Iowa State.


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## TheXpress2002 (Oct 9, 2007)

1olddogtwo;2046266 said:


> Ah, such fond memories of Iowa State.


I love their meteogram


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## Mark Oomkes (Dec 10, 2000)

TheXpress2002;2046265 said:


> The cfsv2 backing off the torch idea month long trending towards the Ecmwf weeklies which has had the flip for awhile.
> 
> The cold shot early next week should be transient, with a gradual drop there after.
> 
> Sorry can't post the Euro


I have no idea what that shows or means.


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## leigh (Jan 2, 2009)

Mark Oomkes;2046287 said:


> I have no idea what that shows or means.


Its just a ploy used by forecasters,it really means nothing until they apply it to whatever happens weatherwise!


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## TheXpress2002 (Oct 9, 2007)

Nice crash on latest (in blue)...

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/nino12Mon.gif


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## Dogplow Dodge (Jan 23, 2012)

Hey..


We're having Indian Summer next week..


or should I say...


Native American Summer, next week. Haven't seen one of those in a while.


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## Mark Oomkes (Dec 10, 2000)

TheXpress2002;2046753 said:


> Nice crash on latest (in blue)...
> 
> http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/nino12Mon.gif


I could swear I heard this at least a month ago. Not from NOAA.


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## TheXpress2002 (Oct 9, 2007)

Mark Oomkes;2046796 said:


> I could swear I heard this at least a month ago. Not from NOAA.


You're welcome


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## Mark Oomkes (Dec 10, 2000)

> Please keep reading the threads under this one, as I've posted a lot of interesting information (northern lights) and climate data (in Nov. 2008, we had 4 70-degree days in a row in the first week of Nov. - that was followed by a whopping 105″ of snow that winter).


Uh huh...........cuz this "weather" means everything.


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## SnoFarmer (Oct 15, 2004)

El Nino , 
Nov 5. Thunder, rain, temp 60*f...


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## BUFF (Dec 24, 2009)

Snow at 6000' and above last night, rain on the plains.
More seasonable temps the next couple days and claims of snow next Wednesday......


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## Mark Oomkes (Dec 10, 2000)

SnoFarmer;2048860 said:


> El Nino ,
> Nov 5. Thunder, rain, temp 60*f...


Better not do your impression of a lightning rod.


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## AccuCon (Jan 31, 2013)

Little late (was updated 11/02/2015) but here is an update on the AO

https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation

Hope this bad boy goes negative!


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## Mark Oomkes (Dec 10, 2000)

AccuCon;2049313 said:


> Little late (was updated 11/02/2015) but here is an update on the AO
> 
> https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation
> 
> Hope this bad boy goes negative *about the middle of December*!


Fixed it for you.


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## superdutypsd (Oct 30, 2014)

Were still over here in the 50s on the east coast, with average highs not dropping to the 30's till the second week in december, dec 9 i think is the first day we drop into the 30s and there calling for an ice storm then possible 1-3" event dec 12,19,20th. Im thinking east cost will get hit hard early mid jan thru feb. we have the perfect conditions starting over here with el nino coming in a cold front from the north coming down and moisture from south coming up causing storms to hover and no Pressure from west to push them out


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## BUFF (Dec 24, 2009)

superdutypsd;2056182 said:


> Were still over here in the 50s on the east coast, with average highs not dropping to the 30's till the second week in december, dec 9 i think is the first day we drop into the 30s and there calling for an ice storm then possible 1-3" event dec 12,19,20th. Im thinking east cost will get hit hard early mid jan thru feb. we have the perfect conditions starting over here with el nino coming in a cold front from the north coming down and moisture from south coming up causing storms to hover and no Pressure from west to push them out


HTF can a 1-3" event be forecasted in mid December when the NTAC's cant get a forecast right a day or less before a system moves in.


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## AccuCon (Jan 31, 2013)

Mark Oomkes;2049322 said:


> Fixed it for you.


Exactly! :salute:

I have a feeling we may start to pick up events come mid-December in the North East

One things still for sure, in February its good to know a plow guy!


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## superdutypsd (Oct 30, 2014)

BUFF;2056190 said:


> HTF can a 1-3" event be forecasted in mid December when the NTAC's cant get a forecast right a day or less before a system moves in.


Lmao... Beats the hell out of me to man, but i know we wont have anything going on till the secound week of December at least with highs durning the day in the upper 40s they also stink so bad that october 19 i was doing a roof job and they forcast clear and sunny well we had a cold front come in and it snowed for 2 hours then sleeted and then sunny for an hour back to snow


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## BUFF (Dec 24, 2009)

superdutypsd;2056410 said:


> Lmao... Beats the hell out of me to man, but i know we wont have anything going on till the secound week of December at least with highs durning the day in the upper 40s


We had temps in the low 60's for a couple days then it snowed. Predicting weather is like predicting what kind of mood a pregnant will be in........ Glad I'm done with that rolling coaster.....


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## superdutypsd (Oct 30, 2014)

BUFF;2056413 said:


> We had temps in the low 60's for a couple days then it snowed. Predicting weather is like predicting what kind of mood a pregnant will be in........ Glad I'm done with that rolling coaster.....


Yea we had that snow also, and yes predicting the mood of a pregnant woman and some how there always right no matter how far off they were


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## procuts0103 (Oct 2, 2012)

Dam pain in the ass El Niño.60s next week forecasted here.


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## SnoFarmer (Oct 15, 2004)

El Niño

Has anyone experienced the effects of El Niño?


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## grandview (Oct 9, 2005)

One good thing is my salt supply is holding steady


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## Wilnip (Oct 4, 2011)

grandview;2073607 said:


> One good thing is my salt supply is holding steady


That made me LOL


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## FordFisherman (Dec 5, 2007)

Great weather for going over the trucks and equipment....for about the 15th time.


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## pdreibels (Dec 24, 2013)

Hit atleast 68 here in PA today. Still drinking IPA's....haven't switched over to stouts yet. Maybe in January


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## Pushin 2 Please (Dec 15, 2009)

Thanks for laugh GV!


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## Randall Ave (Oct 29, 2014)

In the 70's here today, not very normal. Went in tonite to replace some relay valves on one. Just seems weird this time of year doing snow prep in a T shirt. xysport


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## BUFF (Dec 24, 2009)

We're a little behind for snowfall but not by mulch, temps and etc.... have been seasonal. We had a high of 36* today but in the sun it was pretty warm.
Suppose to have more snow coming in Monday night / Tuesday.


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## 86 CJ (Jan 11, 2010)

Great weather for making brine and building sprayers, but getting old .

I think we saw a couple flurries the other day in between the 60 degree days we have had 

Anyone else going crazy around MD with this (supposed to be colder and more precip) weather????


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