# THIS WEEK IN WEATHER 11/20/21 ; about the really cold 2nd half of NOV... I am going to be WRONG



## wxdavid (Dec 22, 2015)

ALL NEW !! In the November 10th edition of THIS WEEK IN WEATHER meteorologist DT wxrisk Talks about significant changes in the global pattern which are going to prevent the second half of November from turning colder-than-normal and much colder than normal.

Many of the extended models during the first week of November were indicating that after November 15th the Eastern US would turn sharply colder-than-normal. and YES I was one of these who thought that was a real possibility.

New data shows that this is not going to happen and DT/ WxRisk shows WHY and says his earlier forecast concerning 15 NOV to 6 DEC going to be WRONG.


----------



## wxdavid (Dec 22, 2015)

I suppose some are going to see this admission regarding my earlier ideas about the second half of November being wrong…. as proof that either the science is BS or I am.

In dealing with commodities it has been my experience that when something looks like it's going to turn out to be wrong or not work out… simply come out and say so and don't dance around it. And as a general rule that is my policy.
I am not sure how snow removal people / companies are going to react to this kind of open admission that the earlier ideas are going to be wrong. If some view this admission of being wrong that it shows no skill or ineptitude so be it. My job is to get the forecast right to the best of my ability…. not to blow smoke


----------



## Fourteen Contracting Inc. (Jul 5, 2019)

wxdavid said:


> I suppose some are going to see this admission regarding my earlier ideas about the second half of November being wrong…. as proof that either the science is BS or I am.
> 
> In dealing with commodities it has been my experience that when something looks like it's going to turn out to be wrong or not work out… simply come out and say so and don't dance around it. And as a general rule that is my policy.
> I am not sure how snow removal people / companies are going to react to this kind of open admission that the earlier ideas are going to be wrong. If some view this admission of being wrong that it shows no skill or ineptitude so be it. My job is to get the forecast right to the best of my ability…. not to blow smoke


I doubt that anyone really cares that your weather prediction is wrong. Most cats on here have been plowing long enough to know that your weather prediction will be wrong. It has nothing to do with denying science, or thinking you are BS or anything along those lines... it's that most of these guys have seen the weather change from what was predicted a few hours before and have had to switch up how to attack a snow storm on the fly (same goes for rain in the summer, when to send guys home / call guys out)
There is obviously science involved but its a lot more unpredictable than the models can account for.
That being said, the models are still better than nothing. Just don't think that everyone else is a moron because they take them with a grain of salt (pun intended) and don't bother getting caught up in the hype.


----------



## Hydromaster (Jun 11, 2018)

Naw, it’s when you talk about yourself in third person.

(“ALL NEW !! In the November 10th edition of THIS WEEK IN WEATHER meteorologist DT wxrisk Talks about significant changes in the global”.

and aren’t there significant changes every time the seasons change?


----------



## Mike_PS (Feb 28, 2005)

you can can ignore the thread and/or OP, rather than, post within his threads just to take shots or poke fun...please move on


----------



## Hydromaster (Jun 11, 2018)

Yes,
But when he has an editorial at the bottom of his post, doesn’t that open it up to further discussion?


----------



## Mike_PS (Feb 28, 2005)

Hydromaster said:


> Yes,
> But when he has an editorial at the bottom of his post, doesn't that open it up to further discussion?


if you want to post to further the discussion, etc. then fine...all I'm saying is no need to troll the someone just to take shots at them or make fun, etc.


----------



## wxdavid (Dec 22, 2015)

Hydromaster said:


> Naw, it's when you talk about yourself in third person.
> 
> ("ALL NEW !! In the November 10th edition of THIS WEEK IN WEATHER meteorologist DT wxrisk Talks about significant changes in the global".
> 
> and aren't there significant changes every time the seasons change?


 No there arent . Nice try


----------



## Hydromaster (Jun 11, 2018)

We’ll that explained it…

Thank you, for the concise and well thought out answer.


----------



## Mark Oomkes (Dec 10, 2000)

wxdavid said:


> I suppose some are going to see this admission regarding my earlier ideas about the second half of November being wrong…. as proof that either the science is BS or I am.


Ironically, the forecasts I have been getting (paid for) have been showing not significantly below average temps for the end of November.

Very helpful, considerate, no BS kinda meteorologists.

I have texts to prove it.


----------



## wxdavid (Dec 22, 2015)

Mark Oomkes said:


> Ironically, the forecasts I have been getting (paid for) have been showing not significantly below average temps for the end of November.
> 
> Very helpful, considerate, no BS kinda meteorologists.
> 
> I have texts to prove it.


 YES someone here - not me posted that 2nd of NOV ... Nov 15-30 would turn MUCH colder an that post is still here


----------



## Mark Oomkes (Dec 10, 2000)

wxdavid said:


> YES someone here - not me posted that 2nd of NOV ... Nov 15-30 would turn MUCH colder an that post is still here


What?


----------

