# Southern New England Weather (CT,MA,RI)



## AccuCon

Figured I would start the thread for the 2016/17 winter season weather discussion.

Some quick reference links:

*NWS Snow Accumulation Potential Maps*
Albany: http://www.weather.gov/aly/winter
Boston: http://www.weather.gov/box/winter
NYNY: http://www.weather.gov/okx/winter

*NOAA Graphical Forecast Northeast*
http://graphical.weather.gov/sectors/northeast.php?element=Wx

*Snow Total Accumulation (post storm)*
NWS Albany: http://forecast.weather.gov/product...LY&product=PNS&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0
NWS Boston: http://forecast.weather.gov/product...OX&product=PNS&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0
NWS Upton: http://forecast.weather.gov/product...KX&product=PNS&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0
Connecticut CoCoRaHS: *http://www.cocorahs.org/State.aspx?state=CT*

*2016/17 Winter Outlooks*
AccuWeather
WeatherBell
TheWeatherChannel
ILSnow.com
Wunderground-Blog


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## trickynicky17

Awesome subscribed


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## unhcp

subscribed


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## quigleysiding

happy fall


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## AccuCon

Well this is interesting....

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weath...snow-showers-eastern-us-late-october/60669833


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## MSsnowplowing

subscribed. Let the snow begin


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## aclawn

Nice to back.Hope everyone had a great summer."Let it Snow"All the best, winter 2016/2017
Couple of good website to add to ACCUCON:
https://mping.ou.edu/display/
https://www.facebook.com/MeteorologistBernieRayno
http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/WXTYPE/loop25ne.html
http://www.dotdata.ct.gov/WeatherRoundUp/WRU_Index.HTM


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## bootstrap

I'm hoping for more snow and a bit more cold weather. Didn't happen last year. As a hunter, the hunting season was a joke. Cold weather and snow should change that. Plus I can plow!


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## Shaw2731

Hope we get buried!


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## Maleko

Can I be the first to say it?
Out to sea. .........


Just kidding, hope we all have a busy season and put some of that green stuff in our pockets.

Good luck everyone. lowred:


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## AccuCon

Well if this is any indication of what is ahead....Need to get my equipment in order...DOH!


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## AccuCon

Quick get the salters out 1/2" possible in the hills....Ha

However good warning to get everything dialed and ready to rock... Anyone else not ready???

I haven't even staked yet!


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## sectlandscaping

Every year we had a fluke Halloween storm. The winter was lame. Anyway I'm per event heavy, so let it snow.


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## MSsnowplowing

shhhh no snow, not yet, still working on the new plow truck and haven't staked out properties yet myself


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## AdvancedDiesel

Bring it on!


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## chevyhauler

Thanks for posting these AccuCon!!! Good reads for sure!
Best quote from all of them was this one by Darrin Harr:

"I would say this winter will be better than last winter by simple default. If you draw a “2” out of a deck of cards at random, the chance of drawing a higher card the next time is extraordinarily high. We drew the “2” last winter, but are we going to draw a “4” or “9” or a face card this time? I honestly don’t know yet."

And to answer your question...No...I am not ready yet.
Plows still in storage. Sander still in storage. Blowers still covered. Properties not staked yet. On the flip side...if needed I could get my stuff ready (although not any truck improvements) in about 24 hours.


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## AccuCon

Looks like the north west hills could see 1-2"...

From what I've seen it looks like everything will be right this season for snow, now all we will need is the actual moisture which has been lacking...Pesky drought!

However hopefully the ground will be nice and frozen by the first actual snowfall, the grass would appreciate it...ha

Anybody look into these services: http://www.weatherbell.com/landing/winter 
The Stormlogik has my interest


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## vortec7622

Snow coming down in Charlton right now, don't see it sticking though. Friend in Chicopee reported snow sticking to unpaved surfaces there.


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## Evil Diesel

Definitely not ready yet. Is summer over already???


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## bootstrap

Anything but ready. My truck's tranny line blew out. I patched it up and drove home only to find another crispy section. Once I touched that, and I mean barely touched it, fluid pee'd everywhere. Took a look at the fuel lines too, they are nice and crispy so the truck is in the shop having new trans lines and fuel lines put on. Brake lines were already done.
To top it off, when I was changing the fluid in my plow I went to angle it all the way to the right and when it hit the stop, that line blew out too. LOL. So nope. Trucks a Silverado 2500HD and the plow is a Curtis home pro 3000.
Every time we got plowable snow in October the winter was a joke. But we didn't get plowable snow so I still think we are in for a decent winter and it will be colder than average.


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## TMLGC

Better now then during a storm my truck goes into the dealer on Wednesday for all new fuel lines as well, also to fix a leaky transfer case. 

Warm next week.


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## bootstrap

I usually do work myself but when it comes to really time consuming stuff Im better off sending it to my friends shop and working overtime. I end up money ahead in the end and I don't have to bust knuckles.


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## chevyhauler

bootstrap said:


> Anything but ready. My truck's tranny line blew out. I patched it up and drove home only to find another crispy section. Once I touched that, and I mean barely touched it, fluid pee'd everywhere. Took a look at the fuel lines too, they are nice and crispy so the truck is in the shop having new trans lines and fuel lines put on. Brake lines were already done.
> To top it off, when I was changing the fluid in my plow I went to angle it all the way to the right and when it hit the stop, that line blew out too. LOL. So nope. Trucks a Silverado 2500HD and the plow is a Curtis home pro 3000.


Happened to my '02 a few years back. PS pump went. Replaced that. Brake line blew while pulling it out of the driveway from replacing the PS pump. Replace all of those with the copper alloy ones. Two weeks later the fuel lines go. Had it in a dealer a month later (to check everything)and he said that my tranny cooler lines were about to go. ONLY tidbit of good news from all that was that anytime I replace anything, I try and make it a bullet proof as possible. SS lines, copper alloy lines or even painting the hard steel portion of the fuel lines with POR15. 
Like TMLGC said, better now than during a storm.


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## AccuCon

I'm finding since we had such a dismal season last year everything basically sat for 2 years and is a real PITA to get up to snuff again...

Looking back I should have started at the end of summer! ha


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## bootstrap

Truck is back and running better than ever. Since I bought it the check engine light was on for leaky evap circuit. That line was replaced with the fuel line.
I took the pump and lines off my scrap plow. Im going to reuse a good line for fix my blown out one.


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## MSsnowplowing

Well I have been tracking snowfall totals now since 2008 and the pattern has been 3 years of average snow then in the 4th year very light snow fall.

Mind you this is for Eastern CT.

2008-2009 38 inches
2009-2010 39 inches
2010-2011 60 inches
2011-2012 17 inches

2012-2013 61 inches
2013-2014 52 inches
2014-2015 75 inches
2015-2016 29 inches

So we should be in for between 40 and 60 inches of snow for the next 3 years if this pattern holds. 

Well let you know in 2020


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## theplowmeister

so last season was the light season?


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## aclawn

Website to ck avg snowfall by state helps with bidding seasonal.https://snowfall.weatherdb.com/


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## MSsnowplowing

theplowmeister said:


> so last season was the light season?


Yes it was.


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## amscapes03

May not be a 9' season like a few years back, but my gut feel is we're gonna get hammered this year. Prayers already said and fingers crossed. Get ready to push some frozen water Boys !!!
Every year the acorns drop heavy, we have a great plow season. Superstition? Maybe. Not sure about yours, but my property was/is like walking on marbles !!!


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## MSsnowplowing

amscapes03 said:


> May not be a 9' season like a few years back, but my gut feel is we're gonna get hammered this year. Prayers already said and fingers crossed. Get ready to push some frozen water Boys !!!
> Every year the acorns drop heavy, we have a great plow season. Superstition? Maybe. Not sure about yours, but my property was/is like walking on marbles !!!


@#$%$#@@! stupid acorns, I have been hit 5 times in the head with them, my pickup bed has about 50 -75 of them in it.


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## ScubaSteve728

looks like some possible frozen precipitation thanksgiving evening?
still pretty far out lots of time for it to change


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## jmac5058

Please remove Ma from any grouping that puts us with Cnt . We belong with Vermont , NH and Maine . You know what they say " Cnt the only thing missing is you".


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## MSsnowplowing

I don't see anything happening for the rest of the month.


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## ScubaSteve728

https://www.facebook.com/1644825870...4482587095720/554074361469872/?type=3&theater
slight chance of turkey day snow in the western parts


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## GMCHD plower

What happened to Kart? He was always the man for weather


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## unhcp

I think people were too aggressive and didnt like the results of his estimated projections, the more info the better is how i see it


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## AccuCon

Looks like the hills of CT, western mass may get a couple inches by Monday...also upstate NY and VT may get a decent amount in higher elevations... I'll post some model runs in the AM...

The trend looks to be below freezing lows (20s) from tomorrow night on thru Thanksgiving....so the percip if any Thanksgiving could be frozen....


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## leigh

Kinda quiet , some reports of up to a foot in nw ct?


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## MSsnowplowing

leigh said:


> Kinda quiet , some reports of up to a foot in nw ct?


16 inches in Goshen from what I heard.
Lake effect, glad we didn't get that my bloody chain broke on my sander and can't get a new one till this friday


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## unhcp

anyone hear news about thanksgiving or the weekend? ice event maybe?


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## chrisf250

unhcp said:


> anyone hear news about thanksgiving or the weekend? ice event maybe?


I cancelled my trip so I'm sure I scared it away


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## aclawn

Happy Thanksgiving!


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## AccuCon

Looks like something might happen sunday-monday with the return of cold air...Right now the models are showing very little, however that could change in the next few days...

This warm up kind of sucks was hoping for a nice firm frozen ground...









However the prediction of a late start to winter seems to be validating with the model runs and we may be in for it come the new year and beyond...

Personally, I see, if we dont get any moisture we are going to be boned, sure it might be cold enough but most of us have been in a drought now for awhile...

soooooo...

Anyways here's a long term model run showing the snowy pattern










And here's the 46 day temp anomaly, its showing COLD!


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## TMLGC

Weatherunderground during the last 2 days has hinted at a plowable event on Monday at the late afternoon run it completely vanishes both days. Our local news weatherman has also commented on the same. 

How do you read that extended snow map? Is that expected snowfall during that time or the deviation from normal snowfall during that time?


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## AccuCon

That is projected total snowfall over the next 46 days...

As for Sunday/Monday

Here is the euro for Monday









(Full size Download)

Here is the GFS as you can see the temps will be right but no percip is showing










(Full size download)

And check this 8-14 day outlook....Apparently it is the coldest (8-14) since Dec. 2013










Couple side notes:

I'm trying some new things with the posting of images for the model runs, we shall see how it works.

A note about why I made a thread for Southern New England, since I see some are very proud of their state and feel they need a more focused forecast...Well guess what southern New England is as about as close of a forecast area you are going to get. The National weather service offices that cover southern New England are listed on the first post and include Albany, Boston, and New York New York.

Further most models only either give the Boston metro area (which covers CT/MA/RI), Northeast, or New England...I just felt like pointing that out that if you think you are going to get a detailed model run for XYZ CT, MA, or RI its just not possible. In fact the only state in New England you can get a zoomed in GFS model run for is Maine.

Climates of New England









Useless information the total combined area of CT/MA/RI is only 17,309 square miles or about twice the size of Central New York (8,639 square miles). Just thought I'd share that....Now back to SNOW!

I leave you with the 10day GFS (I sure hope its coming, especially after last year!)









(Full size download)

Cheers to all my New England brothers and sisters!

P.S. I guess if you really want to plow the snow you need to head to the white mountains of NH since its a Subarctic climate...lol


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## chevyhauler

Awesome write up AccuCon!!!
pretty pictures...LOL!
As someone who does more than just push snow in the winter (carpenter) it helps a bunch with planning!
Thank You


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## AccuCon

Looking over the model runs, seeing a low probability for something Sunday/Monday (Night/Morning)...However NWS/NOAA has picked it up on there forecast...Mind you its like 10-20% chance of 1" or less more towards the west, deep inland...

Though peering into the magical crystal model ball, maybe something later next week...The more and more I'm seeing we may have a white Christmas this year...

Here is some pretty charts in lieu of pictures!




































Looking ahead next week (so far out but worth showing since it seems winter is in fact coming this year)


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## Broncslefty7

weather stations are already reporting a possible large storm for next saturday.


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## AccuCon

Seeing another round for tomorrow morning much like yesterday morning. I got a few salt runs in.

So here we have tomorrow AM (Euros)










NAM 12z 45 hrs out









We are setting up for a active pattern over the next week plus...Check out whats on the longer range for next week...










And check out this 10 day Euro 00z from this morning


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## Broncslefty7

this is for tomorrow morning?


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## AccuCon

The top are tomorrow morning...The bottom two are next week and 10 days out, repectively.

Showing the last two making the point of what seems to be an active pattern we are getting into.

Tomorrow AM may be very similar to Monday AM. Though it looks like it may start more early over night compared to Monday mornings fun...


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## Broncslefty7

Looks like we may get a little more rain this time.


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## AccuCon

Yes def. elevation dependant even more so. Monday I had 1.5" at my highest lot and trace amounts just on the walks at my lowest lot all within 14miles...

I see a Northwest to southeast snow to rain again...with the shore all rain...However the temps seem to be a little warmer this time around which will make for more rain.

Check out the MeteoGrams


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## Broncslefty7

i think this time instead of snow to rain, it will be rain, snow, rain.


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## AccuCon

Broncslefty7 said:


> i think this time instead of snow to rain, it will be rain, snow, rain.


Yeah....I doubt we will see anything plowable however with the timing it might be another salt run in higher elevations...Colder air is coming down from the Northeast heading into the rain coming up from the south...

Bernies take
http://www.accuweather.com/en/video...-northeast-late-week-cold-front/2430839568001


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## AccuCon

Gonna be chilly...check out the 46 day 2 meter temp anomaly


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## AlliedMike

looks like its gonna be abust for sunday night into monday i dont see anything happening for a while can someone please change that please


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## AccuCon

Check this out...Accuweathers Monday Monring and then tomrrow morning...


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## AlliedMike

thats nothelping much lol


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## Broncslefty7

i think they are talking saturday night, and then sunday night again with some dustings.


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## AlliedMike

where you hearing that i havent foudn that one yet


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## Broncslefty7

Noaa, and weather keeps changing it.


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## AlliedMike

I see partly cloudy


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## Broncslefty7

idk, we are going out to pre treat now. got to test about 300 gallons of our brine the other day. $66.00 in de icing material worked way better that $180 in salt.


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## AlliedMike

lookimg good for sunday


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## AccuCon

Just like to point out some stuff I have seen for the coming weeks...Bust out the battery powered thermal underwear its going to get COLD!










Chicago is absolutely boned on this one...Might even set some records









We are still freezing








A ten day outlook on snow potential








Same 10 Day just looking at the Northeast








Really the whole country is going to be chilly, even Miami down in the 60s. This is the US Daily low, note the avg is 19 for the whole country.









Euro at Bradley International Airport 10 Day temp








GFS MeteoGram at Bradely








The Euro paints and even colder picture (again Bradely)








In case you are not sure how to read the MeteoGrams...on the bottom of the graph the first number is the date and the second number is time of day...so 12/18 would be December 12th at 18 hundred hours...or 6pm

As for Sunday here is a ECMWF









Stepping back









Burrrrrrrr


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## Broncslefty7

connecticut is always on the snow rain line. its very annoying.


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## AccuCon

Broncslefty7 said:


> connecticut is always on the snow rain line. its very annoying.












LOL


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## Broncslefty7

yeah hartford/newington sucks. i could use a blizzard rite about now.


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## AccuCon

Well truly speaking the White Mountains of New Hampshire is really the place to live/plow...The Lake Winnipesaukee region to be exact!

I could also use a blizzard...After last year, way too much salt left over...


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## Broncslefty7

yeah same here. i bought a new cat after the '14 winter and barely got to test it last year....


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## AccuCon

And boom just like that Sunday goes poof

Euro 12Z








GFS 12Z


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## AlliedMike

AccuCon said:


> And boom just like that Sunday goes poof
> 
> Euro 12Z
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> GFS 12Z


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## AlliedMike

Just say 3-6


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## AccuCon

AlliedMike said:


> Just say 3-6


More like 0-0....lol


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## AlliedMike

We will see


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## AccuCon

It's so far out but it seems like maybe more of a Monday/Tuesday thing


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## AlliedMike

Either way it looks like something


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## Broncslefty7

thats depressing. last year was the same thing 1-2 inches of slush do we plow or not? id like a 100% chance your getting snow lol.


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## AccuCon

Some GFS Snap shots...

Sunday Evening (18z or 6PM)









Sunday/Monday (00z or 12AM)









Monday morning (06z or 6AM)









Monday Afternoon (12z or Noon)









Monday evening (18z or 6PM)









Snow Monday 18z









Zoomed









Perhaps another repeat of this past Monday


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## chevyhauler

as always AccuCon...damned nice write up...Thank You.


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## chevyhauler

The good Lord giveth (Sunday night) and the good Lord taketh away (Sunday night) aaaand the good Lord Giveth back (Mon, Tues Wed).
Me thinks that this one will have people talking for the next few days.


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## Broncslefty7

This snow has come and gone three times on AccuWeather so far. We shall see. Hopefully it stays


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## unhcp

Broncslefty7 said:


> This snow has come and gone three times on AccuWeather so far. We shall see. Hopefully it stays


Rollercoaster back and forth back and forth


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## TMLGC

Weatherunderground shows very promising. 4-6"

Accuweather not so much 1-2"

Local weather guy said he is leaning to it being a minor event given what he called the zonal flow and lack of a trough. Said it currently favored it to be a quick hitter with little energy by the time it gets east. Also said the cold high over the weekend could block it all together, but some models still show decent snow so that he has little confidence in advertising anything at this time. Once it gets to the west coast we should know what will happen.


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## AccuCon

Looking at the model runs it looks like more of a Monday event...It seems to be dependent on how far south the low comes on wether southern New England gets more snow...









(Download full size here)

Its still a couple days away...One thing is for sure its going to be COLD...










I'll post more at lunch


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## Broncslefty7

i think we will be late sunday night. we are going to pre treat everything tomorrow. if temps drop on monday we could have a good storm. if they stay up we are going to get mostly rain.


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## AccuCon




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## AlliedMike

locals in ct are saying a colder shot and more snow than rain


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## AccuCon

I can confidently say we will be busy on Monday...How busy is the question...


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## AlliedMike

I believe everyone will be out on this one statewide


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## AccuCon

Finally going to actually drop the plow instead of just driving it around while salting...


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## AccuCon

Couple different model runs and then look at the MeteoGrams...Next week is going to turn COLD...

GFS 6 hour









ECMWF 6 Hour










24 Hour Accumulated 









Bradley









Oxford


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## Broncslefty7

i think so as well. its gone up and down since yesterday, accuweather was 4-8 this morning now they are 2- with some rain on monday. i think monday is going to be warm but late sunday night and early monday morning we will be busy.


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## AccuCon

I was looking at a GFS probability map and the entire state is at 90% of 1" for Monday....so there we have a starting point...lol

Sorry with the exception of the south east corner they are sitting at a 30%


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## Broncslefty7

yup.


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## AccuCon

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weath...losures-in-northeastern-us-by-monday/70000234


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## AccuCon

The Rayno's take

http://www.accuweather.com/en/videos/accuweather-experts/widespread-snow-this-weekend/2430839568001


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## Evil Diesel

Has anyone heard of another possibility on Wednesday ? You know if Monday doesn't end up being anything!


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## Avalanche 2500

Evil Diesel said:


> Has anyone heard of another possibility on Wednesday ? You know if Monday doesn't end up being anything!


Monday, could maybe 4" here I'm in NA. They will know more Sun. More Snow on the way! GOOD LUCK


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## Evil Diesel

Avalanche 2500 said:


> Monday, could maybe 4" here I'm in NA. They will know more Sun. More Snow on the way! GOOD LUCK


I'm ready for what ever falls!


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## AccuCon

Yes the bigger threat seems to be later in the week...

Most of interior southern new England could get a decent amount Sunday/Monday with a ice topper... tomorrows model runs should help pinpoint numbers...

Shoreline looks coating to 1"


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## Broncslefty7

its still flip flopping this morning.

Accuweather 3-6
Weather.com 0-1
Noaa 2-4


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## Maleko

To be safe
Figure any where from 1-6"
Chance of snow, sleet, rain, slush
Possible clouds , maybe sun

That's the local weather by me.


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## ScubaSteve728

https://www.facebook.com/Northeast-Weather-Alert-164482587095720/?hc_ref=PAGES_TIMELINE&fref=nf
Storm forecast totals seem to be rising around North east CT and Northern RI, trending more south with rain coming in tomorrow morning on the coast and eastern mass.


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## AccuCon

Well that was fun....Turned into slushfest 2016 at the end....Hit all accounts though, elevation plaid a part...but it all turned to rain pretty quick...

Seems like something maybe Saturday...but Sunday looks like a wash...Still way to early

Though The Berkshires may see something Tuesday night...for the most part CT/RI seem clear...









And the NAM Highres 4km


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## AccuCon

Here is the snow totals...I tend to PDF them since they update rather quickly, due to reporting of more then just snow...wind, rain, etc.


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## AlliedMike

Looking like something in the works for Fri into sat


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## AccuCon

Yes sir, there is something in the works...Lets have a quick coffee session and look at some maps, graphs, and charts oh my...

First lets take a look at tonight's possibility...

Here is the NAM 4km High Res








GFS 








Euro









So we aren't looking at much here...Possible salt runs, not sure depends on how much melt and evaporation happens today I suppose...

Now take a look at this 10 day 2m temp out look








It's pretty much the same all over Southern New England (I checked)....Note Sunday's high

Now lets take a look at some model runs for Fri-Sunday for percip and temp.

ECMWF 24Hr Accumulated









GFS 6-Hourly Note the freeze line...









And here is snaps of the system moving through, again note the freeze lines. These are 6-hourly from Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning.


































Now check out the temp anomaly on Friday and then 48hrs later...
















Talk about crazy....

And check this 2 meter temp snapshot for Friday









It's going to be interesting next few days for sure...Now I've seen some long range stuff and while December looks like it might go out with a bang we might fizzle come January on...But really anything that far out is pure speculation borderline wizardry.

If anyone would like any MeteoGrams for a specific area (typically airports) let me know and I will try and post it.


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## AccuCon

Figured I put the 16 day 2m Temp Anomaly up...Look at that blob of cold...And then not so much...


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## AccuCon

I'm seeing a real mess coming this weekend...Like snow, sleet, ice, rain, ice, snow...

This weekend could get very interesting...Inland may have a hard time getting to the forecasted highs if the snow gets laid down first, with that being the case folks inland will be seeing a mess of winter crap after a good 2-4" of snow...You know a nice icing on top...Will need to keep a close eye on this one...The Euro

















GFS








GFS MSLP
Snow








Starts changing








Insert rain here and finish with








Just what I want to deal with this weekend....$$$ Aside storms like this are no fun


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## Broncslefty7

too much guess work. i think it will be the exact same as the other day. slow snow followed by heavy rain.


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## AccuCon

It's going to be nothing like the last one... Snow rain/snow rain rain/snow and it will do this from Saturday until Sunday night and then freeze up...

I'm not seeing inland reaching into the upper 40s...but it's still days out

Shoreline yeah lots of rain....north of 84 not so much and north/west of 84/91 even less...

Taking out all guess work...it's going to be a mess...Probably get a few salt runs in with maybe a push to start the festivities...I would not be surprised if come Monday it's a skating rink...

I'm going to hold off on any model updates until tomorrow unless I see something real interesting...though I kinda like getting my money's worth so I might post something...lol


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## Broncslefty7

lol it's always entertaining. I think if we do not pre salt we could get a push in the Hartford area. Salt Saturday evening and hen Monday before commute. Sunday looks warm hopefully it doesn't all dry up by Sunday night.


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## AccuCon

Sunday is going to be a battle between the cold and warm... shoreline is boned though probably all rain... especially the south east corner of CT/RI/MA

I'm still betting the forecast highs for Sunday are gonna be a miss...it's too much of a jump with snow coming first...the models aren't seeing that because the snow isn't there yet...

Side note the amount of data that these models take in is astronomical... somewhere I have the info and I'll share it...it's that impressive...think satellites, balloons, planes, ships, weather stations, etc.


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## aclawn

Well pretty snowy morning in most areas Saturday anyways. Should be going nicely when most get up.


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## leigh

I'm on the coast and I'll be plowing starting at 5 am sat am.Going to run 5 trucks and a full sidewalk crew.Thats my plan and I'm sticking to it!


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## chevyhauler

AccuCon said:


> Shoreline yeah lots of rain....north of 84 not so much and north/west of 84/91 even less...


All of my accounts are within 6 miles south of 84 and just a few miles west of 91. Right in the middle of the "who the F knows" line. LOL
Lets just say that I am keeping my weekend open.
What I hate is the ice on snow potential. With that much snow...u gotta push it. Before u r done pushing, other accounts are already getting iced. 
Thank u again for the amazing write up AccuCon!!


----------



## Nwct

The Who the f knows line..
that's hilarious ...

The snow and ice management
aspect of our jobs _at times _would make a lot of people's head explode myself included ..at times it certainly gives a headache!

Positive note ..most will be working though not ideal, gotta take the 
good 
X" of powder ending at midnight on a Saturday 
with the bad 
Snow rain ice on a Monday am commute or even worse Thursday Friday afternoon


----------



## AccuCon

Still looking the similar...Snow to snow/rain to rain to rain/ice....Its gonna be a fun weekend...

Now for some pretty pictures

Euro - New England








Zooming in









Remember this is all prior to the change over Sat/Sun...

GFS









Since we are starting to get closer, can start using the mesoscale high res models.

NAM-4kM









Heaviest yet...
Now lots look at some PTYP with MSLP

Saturday (48hr)








Saturday (54hr) -The change-








And it rains right on through heavy later on...
60Hr








72hr








Now this is where you start to see the cold coming back in...
78hr








And then slippity doo da day come monday
84hr









But if that NAM holds true.....oh man we all will get a good push in and a bunch of salting this weekend

Now looking forward we have a warm up coming like end of month...And I'm not liking that...


----------



## AccuCon

As promised the nerdy model information...



> *Average data per day for December 2012(more or less it's about the same generally):*
> *►From satellites:*
> •Data per day that are being given to GFS's team to work with(emc):
> 
> 00z: 706 390 048 (around 706 millions of data in each run of 00z!!)
> 06z: 680 890 319 (around 681 millions of data in each run of 06z!!)
> 12z: 690 560 584 (around 691 millions of data in each run of 12z!!)
> 18z: 698 481 105 (around 698 millions of data in each run of 18z!!)
> 
> •Data per day that are being accepted by GFS's team(emc):
> 
> 00z: 16 860 685
> 06z: 16 294 747
> 12z: 16 592 945
> 18z: 16 690 927
> 
> •Data per day *that are eventually being fed into GFS model to analyze:*
> 
> 00z: 3 179 834 (3.18 millions of data in each run of 00z!!)
> 06z: 3 169 267 (3.17 millions of data in each run of 06z!!)
> 12z: 3 209 578 (3.21 millions of data in each run of 12z!!)
> 18z: 3 225 766 (3.23 millions of data in each run of 18z!!)
> 
> *►Non-satellite data per day that are being accepted from GFS's team AND eventually are being fed into GFS model to analyze:*
> 00z: 188397 (in each run of 00z)
> 06z: 146122 (in each run of 06z)
> 12z: 146347 (in each run of 12z)
> 18z: 190016 (in each run of 18z)
> 
> From the above:
> 
> •Metars and Synops data per day:
> 00z: 61898 (in each run of 00z)
> 06z: 64007 (in each run of 06z)
> 12z: 65780 (in each run of 12z)
> 18z: 63844 (in each run of 18z)
> 
> •Ships data per day:
> 00z: 18541 (in each run of 00z)
> 06z: 18662 (in each run of 06z)
> 12z: 18926 (in each run of 12z)
> 18z: 18902 (in each run of 18z)
> 
> •Radiosondes data per day:
> 00z: 2333 (in each run of 00z)
> 06z: 1758 (in each run of 06z)
> 12z: 2274 (in each run of 12z)
> 18z: 1700 (in each run of 18z)
> 
> •Airplanes/Aircrafts data per day:
> 00z: 105625 (in each run of 00z)
> 06z: 61695 (in each run of 06z)
> 12z: 59367 (in each run of 12z)
> 18z: 105600 (in each run of 18z)


Not sure how accurate that is anymore (probably increased) but here is where I saw it:
https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/43144-why-do-people-dismiss-6z-and-18z-model-runs/


----------



## AccuCon

NWS Boston is picking it up as 4-6"









Albany is a little more conservative









New York seems to be in agreement with the Boston Office


----------



## AccuCon

The NAM is going up....Gonna have to get this off the lots before rain comes...


----------



## AC2717

anyone else see this one going back and forth on amounts? temps going to rise fast enough for the snow to come?


----------



## AccuCon

Ive seen nothing but increases across all models...From ECMWF, GFS, NAM, Canadian...including the NWS/NOAA offices...It's not going to warm up until later in the day...This is prior to that

GFS








Canadian...HAHAHA we can toss this one out...








Not as hi res Canadian, all seem in agreement








Temps wont get above freezing until much later in the day...


----------



## AccuCon

Im not seeing above freezing temps until 36hrs out










And the 850mb just hits above freezing around the 36hr aswell


----------



## aclawn

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/WXTYPE/loop25ne.html


----------



## AccuCon

I animated the GFS 6-Hr Precip QPF and Type with MSLP Starting Saturday Morning thru Monday Morning


----------



## AccuCon

Bernie Rayno's take

http://www.accuweather.com/en/video...turday-including-nyc-and-philly/2430839568001


----------



## FordFisherman

Push it before it melts boys!


----------



## chevyhauler

interesting how the GFS was the only one to show lower amounts (first 3" then up to 4") up the CT river valley. Other models (euro & nam) showed a south west to north east line dividing amounts.


----------



## NEhomer

Pushed an even 6 inches just outside of Great Barrington, MA.


----------



## leigh

NEhomer said:


> Pushed an even 6 inches just outside of Great Barrington, MA.


 To bad its raining today,was thinking of dusting off board for a warmup at butternut!


----------



## NEhomer

Pretty soon I hope!

At the top of the hill past Butternut, take a right and I'm 3 miles down the road.


----------



## leigh

NEhomer said:


> Pretty soon I hope!
> 
> At the top of the hill past Butternut, take a right and I'm 3 miles down the road.


I'd have a seasons pass if I was close, can't beat 25$ midweek,fun little hill.always have a good time.1 1/2 hour drive for me.


----------



## AccuCon

Butternut is one heck of a value...Good times...Its a bummer they aren't set up for night skiing/boarding.

That storm Saturday was a nice one, came quick. Would have been a heck of a lot easier if everyone wasn't out shopping...Ridiculous was getting delayed from traffic not road conditions (which weren't great either)

Weather wise....Doesn't look like much coming...Maybe a little something on Thursday but probably nothing of significance.

Temps look to be getting up to average and then above average the Day after Christmas before dropping back down below average...

Some pretty pictures of temps and temp anomalies










Christmas Eve









Scorcher day after, good for testing out that new swimsuit 








Temp Snap









Then its back to winter








10 Day temp snap









Thursdays event looking to be more of a Northern one...With the Berkshires getting a little









The Euro (ECMWF) agrees with the GFS for the most part...Tuesday after Christmas above avg








10 day snow depth


----------



## AccuCon

And just for fun some long range climate snow forecast action...

These are 5 day accumulated snowfall
10 Day









15 Day









30 Day









45 Day









And here we have a 45 day total accumulated snowfall









That last bottom corner...would probably mean an Ice Age...lol


----------



## AccuCon

chevyhauler said:


> interesting how the GFS was the only one to show lower amounts (first 3" then up to 4") up the CT river valley. Other models (euro & nam) showed a south west to north east line dividing amounts.


The NAM on the morning of the storm was pretty much dead on it only adjusted slightly from the previous run I posted here.


----------



## AccuCon

I put the Storm Totals for much of Southern New England in a google doc that you can view here:

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1kezNgAYZBE2W8s8V1BTCnJ4YVC-e9wVCGyob3ZAE9hk/edit?usp=sharing

Was taken from the NWS Pages (which get lost over time)


----------



## leigh

AccuCon said:


> I put the Storm Totals for much of Southern New England in a google doc that you can view here:
> 
> https://docs.google.com/document/d/1kezNgAYZBE2W8s8V1BTCnJ4YVC-e9wVCGyob3ZAE9hk/edit?usp=sharing
> 
> Was taken from the NWS Pages (which get lost over time)


Which office would include New Haven and Faifield county? We seem to be like the unwanted child in many reports!


----------



## AccuCon

The New York office
http://forecast.weather.gov/product...KX&product=PNS&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0

I added the totals to the end of the document
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1kezNgAYZBE2W8s8V1BTCnJ4YVC-e9wVCGyob3ZAE9hk/edit?usp=sharing


----------



## AccuCon

We have a little Jaw coming...However this doesn't mean no snow. As you can see its only really above average for the first two weeks of the new year then its pretty much around average...Then come February we are all gonna be COLD!










CFS Temp Anomaly 5 Day chunks CLICK HERE
(figured posting animations back to back may cause dizziness)

15 Day snow pattern as the Jaw comes to an end and temps go back to avg. 









45 Day we are all rich in February payup (or our ass grew into the seat of the truck) as temps dive back down below avg. 








lowblue:

Next Couple weeks though not so much


----------



## chevyhauler

somehow I get the feeling that u r trying to tell us to enjoy the holidays.....and rest up!


----------



## AccuCon

Well I'm seeing hints to some annoyance on Christmas eve/day as well Thursday...

The new model runs have changed a bit on the further out and the Cold is battling...The 6-10 still looks very much the same as we will be in a slight warm up...its the 10day past that is changing so maybe not as long as a warm up...Also they are looking cold, like 13/14 and 14/15 years...I'll post some updates shortly


----------



## AccuCon

Ok first lets take a look at the precipitation coming in the next few days, I have not seen anything on the NAM and the GFS is looking weak. However, the GEM and the ECMWF have nuisance amounts showing for both Thursday and this Weekend.

ECMWF Thursday

















Canadian RGEM








With this we can see the Snow/Rain ice lines, again the Canadian









I haven't seen anything pop up on the NAM though. Currently the NAM looks like the top left corner of the last model shot.

Now moving along to this weekend, the GFS is starting to pick up something.

GFS









The ECMWF is making me think I will be out salting at some point









And the Canadian has got me dreaming of a white Christmas across the North!









Stay tuned for further updates on the Jaw and possible snow coming to a driveway parking lot near you. Now for a word from our sponsors....

Hmm cant tell if too much coffee or not enough


----------



## chevyhauler

weather.com and weatherundergound show nothing for tomorrow
accuweather and noaa show a chance of snow showers
may be a sand/salt run
may be rain
may be 80 and sunny (ok...maybe not in the north east...but somewhere!)


----------



## AccuCon

Yeah with the NAM not showing anything nor the GFS, figured it was a safe bet it was a non-event.
..


----------



## AccuCon

Looks like rain this weekend and early next week. However the potential for icing is there. I animated some model shots

GFS 6hr Ptype-QPF and MSLP 30hr-138hr









GFS 2 meter temp (T2M) 6-114hr









And here is Bradly's MeteoGram








And what is this I spy come second week of January?????


----------



## AccuCon

Oops sorry meant to post the 5 day Accumulated not the previous image which is Accumulated snowfall


----------



## snopushin ford

Hey guys, thank you for all the weather updates that you do! Merry Christmas!


----------



## Maleko

Holy flash freeze Batman. 
Just got in form xmas eve salt run
All lots were a sheet of ice. 

Off to bed then back up to check them all again before Santa arrives. 

Merry Christmas all......


----------



## AccuCon

First Nor'Easter of the season is coming in....Still a few days out but we may be in for some decent snow...

Here we go...Couple different possibilities and the White Mountains, my gosh 35"...Better get a case of everything at the liquor store...Now if this thing decides to track 50 miles east, we are all in for a whopper (not likely)...However this may be a recurring pattern we will see in the weeks ahead and perhaps if the arctic air returns in the later half of Jan we could get a boomer...

Start off with the NAM, notice the coast is getting some love...The ECMWF has less love for the coast...The GFS is being wonky so I will not post it...

The NAM









ECMWF









The Ensemble mean









The Canadian does not agree, this should change









Bradley MeteoGram








Oxford









Oddly the Otis and Boston MeteoGrams show nothing for snow...However Westfield pegs out









As does Pittsfield









Will be keeping an eye on this one, better Idea tomorrow...This seems to be a Thursday afternoon into Friday event...


----------



## AccuCon

Oh and this was the 35" for the White Mountains


----------



## AC2717

hope this moves a little east that's for sure!


----------



## trickynicky17

Hope it moves a little more south for us in sw Connecticut


----------



## AccuCon

Latest ECMWF still pretty much the same...









Look at that Bombogenesis


----------



## PLOWMAN45

watching topic from norwalk ct


----------



## chevyhauler

ok...I had to look up Bombogenesis to see what it was.
learn something every day
Thank u again Accu


----------



## AccuCon

Bombogenesis is just fun to say....HA

The ECMWF has pulled back for CT however the NAM seems to be showing a similar outcome for Thursday/Friday event...The White Mountains are, still, getting absolutely hammered...

ECMWF








NAM









Zooming out just look at the White Mountains...Gun Stock is going to be blanketed in fresh powder









The GFS is showing very little and has been the whole time. When we get closer to the event the NAM 4km comes into play and from what I have noticed seems to be on the money more often then not. Im curious as to why the GFS is showing very little on this one, it certainly doesn't make any sense.

I mean some of the snaps are incomplete is in the heavy stuff just goes to nothing....But here it is I would say this is the least likely scenario









And just for giggles one of the HRDPS snaps just buries us all...Total fluke because the before and after hrs looks more like the rest of the models


----------



## AC2717

I'm hoping for the HRDPS


----------



## leigh

43 deg for me at coast,I'll take a wild guess that the 1/2" of precip will be in the form of liquid,commonly called rain down here.bombarainogenesis


----------



## NEhomer

Just up over the border here in SW MA, we're looking at 3-5 right now.


----------



## AccuCon

The 12Z is out...

Very impressive storm for the White Mountains...You can see where Lake winnipesaukee is...










Boston Metro









Accumulated Precip









And here is a 24hr Simulated radar starting at the beginning of the storm or approx 24hrs from now


----------



## AC2717

any shifting east?
when is the next round of info out?


----------



## AccuCon

Next round should be shortly...Looks like north of 84 west of 91 best chance for 2-4" overnight Thursday everywhere else could be a mix of winter crap with just plain cold rain along the shore...Going to be a sharp cutoff looking like south of Hartford nothing but rain...

Winter Weather Advisory is in effect from 9AM Thursday to Noon Thursday for Northwestern CT


----------



## AC2717

for MA then looking like west of Worcester and everything east of Worcester is just being toyed with


----------



## AccuCon

Here is the latest NAM (Next run 8:35pm)









ECMWF (Next Run 1:30AM)








GFS will be running next at 4:30pm

I'd say this is a pretty good Map from AccuWeather.com









The real questionable area is going to be Hartford...

Bernie's take https://t.co/2qcyDyuERd


----------



## aclawn

__ https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=1362226027150659


----------



## AccuCon

aclawn said:


> __ https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=1362226027150659


LOL

KALY









KBOX








KOKX


----------



## aclawn

Pattern change around the second week of the new year. "plinko time" after that.


----------



## AccuCon

Looking forward real quick...

Around the 8th









Around the 11th


----------



## AC2717

me-sa said its missing my area, hopefully the 11th


----------



## AccuCon

This is a pile of crap...Some lots had almost an 1" before rain...Scrape salt...Then others had ice forming (freezing rain) and as you scrape the semi-liquid crap off the walk it ices behind you...lot of salting...and then with the temp drop tonight...more salting...Gonna be some very tender parking lots...HA


----------



## allagashpm

AccuCon said:


> This is a pile of crap...Some lots had almost an 1" before rain...Scrape salt...Then others had ice forming (freezing rain) and as you scrape the semi-liquid crap off the walk it ices behind you...lot of salting...and then with the temp drop tonight...more salting...Gonna be some very tender parking lots...HA


Hey just wanted to thank you for taking the time to post up everything you do.
It is incredibly helpful for me here in Maine, with so much uncertainty in the forecasts, I always check for your posts with my regular weather websites. 
I know you're busy but it really is helpful, so thanks, and good luck tonight!


----------



## NEhomer

Ditto on the thanks AccuCon.

We got about 3 very wet inches here near Great Barrington, MA.


----------



## AccuCon

No problem guys...I'm happy to share the info I get...

Yeah in a 13 mile distance went form 2" of heavy wet crap to wet freezing rain turning to slush on the pavement from vehicular travel...LOTS OF SALT...And this morning, man talk about a glazing...

Moving forward...this keeps getting more interesting around the 9th here is a snap










Because why not...Here is a 72hr animated








Come on snow!


----------



## AccuCon

Just a few things to show where that is coming from....

Here is the 5k feet (that 850 millibar snow making workshop) at the same time as the previous snowfall snapshot









And the 500mb we have more cold...so the snow can travel from the factory to your doorstep without melting








The Setup









Tick tick









BOMBOGENESIS








2m Anomaly








As you can see COLD...But what about that warmth coming days prior you ask...Well it looks like it wont be around for as long as one thinks as the models have adjusted as the oscillations battle etc. etc.

Keep in mind this is out there a ways...but still something to watch and hope for...lol


----------



## AccuCon

And it slipped to the south of us...the Ocean will see a whole bunch of snow...lol










However there is some interesting stuff going on right now...Update shortly...

Hope all had a good new year


----------



## AccuCon

Check out this 5 day Temp Anomaly...Come Thursday everything will freeze right up again.










And here is that storm just slipping below to the south and OTS...However its still a ways out and it can still shift, really depends on the trough and where it ends up...


----------



## AccuCon

This not being able to edit 20mins after is a bunch of BS...

Anyways...moving along

The Storm on the 12th seems to be going to the North of Southern New England, perhaps our Northern friends will see something..










In the mean time enjoy the rain 

The HRRR 3-Km total precip out 14 hours


----------



## AccuCon

Looks like some of our Northern friends are getting some heavy snow with this rain, can anyone verify if they happen to stumble upon this. I'm thinking with the temps where they are this stuff might be cement like...

24hr Accumulated ECMWF








Accumulated








GFS 6 Hourly with MSLP









NAM HiRes









48hr Animated Ptype MSLP








That makes me think a good old pile of New England winter precip


----------



## AccuCon

Bernie's take

http://www.accuweather.com/en/videos/accuweather-experts/late-week-snowstorm/2430839568001

Maybe some salting on Friday AM...perhaps a small push....


----------



## PLOWMAN45

i could use a costal storm but i take 3 inches


----------



## aclawn

Dam to bad the cold air is not in.it would be 2013 repeat!
Some nice precip around the 11,15,and 17th.
i hope the euro whip GFS a** this weekend could get a push on the coast I-95


----------



## aclawn

:angryaying for the drought we're having ,at the wrong time of the year!


----------



## aclawn

Will be interesting weekend to see if euro model holds.


----------



## AccuCon

We have the cold air injection that is coming in on Thursday by Sunday you are looking at temps in the teens and lows possible in the single digits for much of the region. Though this will be followed by a slight warm up (how warm and duration is up for debate).

Warm (relative term) pattern snows are not uncommon we have had some back in 2013 (February and presidents day)

The trough is in place, the steering low is in place, it's all going to come down to timing. A piece of energy coming in to the north west currently, how fast it gets out ahead of the upper low, as well as if it weakens or not. However most of the snow no matter what is going to stay out of interior New York and New England.

One thing that is looking up for us is that we are into a La Nada period which could bring us some $now!

Lets start off with some 2m Temp Anomaly

Wednesday night Thursday Morning you see the warm leaving








Friday we are getting colder








By Sunday we are even colder (thanks to that injection of arctic air)








Come Monday, battery powered thermal underwear








Now for the storm come Sunday...See that nice circle out on the North West currently, that's our storm.








Here it is come Friday notice its moved down to the south. Now look up above the North East that is the incoming cold air injection and then further west and north that is the steering component, also the component that is going to keep the snow from to far interior in the North East








Now that upper system just isnt getting a negative tilt soon enough for it to bring it in
















But man the cape is getting it...








Snowfall maps









GFS New England









Finish up with a few MeteoGrams
























The Vineyard is just getting hammered








Enjoy!


----------



## AccuCon

NAM 4km Snaps


















Perhaps a salt Run between Friday morning


----------



## AccuCon

Bernie Rayno is the man...hahaha

http://www.accuweather.com/en/video...e-week-snowstorm-morning-update/2430839568001

Personally I'm more focused on the temps...Might see some salt runs on Friday and Sunday but as for the plow hook up I'll wait until the night before (usually)

The Southeast portion of the state though this could be something for you since you usually get nada and this is for both events...The threat at the cape though man...where do you guys put it...


----------



## AccuCon

So North Carolina is going to be closed (possibly Virginia too)....Do they have a plowsite weather thread???? Ha










Bernie Update...Newer one soon
http://www.accuweather.com/en/video...rolina-snowstorm-morning-update/2430839568001


----------



## AlliedMike

looks like the storm is backing west and this could be a intresteing event


----------



## AccuCon

It will not be a big storm for us...The steering component has to much of a positive tilt, which means a lot of westerly winds coming. What you are seeing on the models is that it starts going neutral and then negative but by that time the storm has already passed us.

The tricky thing is what to expect in the morning, we could end up with more than what we think...It's a sneaky one! Since there is a little piece that's hitting the Atlantic and can toss some moisture into the system coming over us...

I'm Probably going to hook up the plow tonight....









Couple model shots for the Friday AM event

























The HRRR (updates hourly)


----------



## Evil Diesel

Wouldn't it be nice if the latest 4k NAM were correct


----------



## AC2717

when's the next update for Saturday noon through midnight?


----------



## AccuCon

It's always fun when it comes down hard right in the middle of the commute...Did a couple laps this morning...Back in the office starting to look over weather updates, blogs, models etc....Interesting tidbit weatherbell generates an astonishing 10 million map products a day...yeah wow...

Here is Bernies AM update, he has another coming early PM...Coastal Maine seems to be coming on scene...
http://www.accuweather.com/en/video...arolinas-to-eastern-new-england/2430839568001

Im thinking leaving the plow on...

Looking further ahead seeing something on the horizon possible around the 15th...When I get settled and some time I'll post some updates and thoughts...

A few Model Runs
































Do with what you wish


----------



## allagashpm

I love that he calls out the other meteorologists. That's my biggest gripe all the news does is tell you what the models say. They don't try to interpret it or say anything different.


----------



## AccuCon

I second that...

Why I like Bernie Rayno, Joe Bastardi, Joe D'Aleo...They explain what is going on...Though locally here in CT we have Ryan Hanrahan on NBC and he also explains well (more on the side not as much live on Air)...

The absolute worst weather reports are on the radio, they should just stop...hours late, repeats, DJs that have been sitting in a booth the whole event...its almost comical, yet also dangerous

----Edit
Here is Ryan's blog on NBC he had his own but neither seem much updated...Probably too busy making the big bucks on Air 

http://www.nbcconnecticut.com/weath...-Thunder-Tornado-Rain-Forecast-401554336.html

He does cover New England in the blogs but focusing on CT


----------



## AccuCon

And she pulls west yet again...Joe Bastardi is saying to watch Cape Hatteras and see if winds change direction, the storm stalls, or if it passes over it. this may indicate the numbers to go up substantially as the storm is not pulled away but allowed to travel up the coast and track more west

We are talking about the center of the storm only shifting 50 miles and the models have been having it do this on I believe the past 4 runs, continually shifting west

A change in the center of the storm by 50 miles can make a HUGE difference in snowfall amounts...

Also keep in mind this is going to be a very cold storm so the ratio is going to be high

Latest NAM hot off the press


----------



## AccuCon

And the final Bernie take
http://www.accuweather.com/en/video...wstorm-to-move-toward-northeast/2430839568001


----------



## AccuCon

This is the HRRR very short range model that updates hourly, only goes out 18hrs. Comparing with the NAM both 4k and 12k as well the ECMWF (more than just QPF) I'd say this looks good.










Seems all in agreement
Euro








Cnadian








North American









The lone wolf


----------



## AccuCon

NWS makes me like the HRRR even more


----------



## AccuCon

I would say the HRRR preformed pretty good this last storm.

And the amount of people out driving in it, just got to love Saturday snowstorms (cough cough).

Anyways looks like something around the 15th is still on the table, seems we might get active again later in the month.

Talk about Ping pong (2m Temp Anomaly) 
















And 60 hours later (around the threat for a storm)








Then








However it is showing cold in Feb.








Threat on the 15th (be nice if it shifts more east)








Some MeteoGrams


----------



## AccuCon

The confusion I'm having is tomorrow and tomorrow night... Possible 1" then rain then 40 by 4am...

Not sure what to plan for...The change over my require salt if businesses are still open...


----------



## AccuCon

Looks like warmth for the rest of January, however February is looking like it could be a heck of a month and the models have the cold going well out...

I mean when you see something like this on the 21st of Jan. your hopes of a $nowy paradise come crashing down.








However...Check out these 850mb for February

























We have had other winters were the second half of January warmed up only for old man winter to come back with vengeance , So winter is far from over and the models are seeing a snowy return...

















And here is some 10 day MeteoGrams
































Here is a Animated 46 Day 850mb (hPa) Temp Anomaly looking good for the second half of winter


----------



## AccuCon

This is further reinforced by a Positive PNA (Pacific/North American teleconnection pattern) this this brings warmth to the west and cold to the east setting up a ridge in the west and a trough in the east










And a negative NAO which allows cold outbreaks and arctic air to plunge into the eastern portion of North America









That's making February look very good...

And to further help explain what the hell I am talking about here is some info graphics I found on the net


----------



## trickynicky17

AccuCon said:


> This is further reinforced by a Positive PNA (Pacific/North American teleconnection pattern) this this brings warmth to the west and cold to the east setting up a ridge in the west and a trough in the east
> Awesome stuff thanks for explaining it for people like me who have no idea
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> And a negative NAO which allows cold outbreaks and arctic air to plunge into the eastern portion of North America
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> That's making February look very good...
> 
> And to further help explain what the hell I am talking about here is some info graphics I found on the net


----------



## AccuCon

Figured I would toss in the EPO...









As you can see it is going negative and I bet you can guess what type of pattern that gives us...









As opposed to the Positive we are in now which produces this type of pattern (and what we are currently experiencing)










And here is the Arctic Oscillation (AO)








The difference between a - and +









So if you put it all together it adds up to a vary favorable second half of winter...


----------



## AccuCon

Looks like a salt run coming up Tuesday/Wednesday...And a general mess

GFS QPF PType MSLP Animated 36hours 








Freezing Rain Accumulation








Boston Metro








Getting the whole mixed bag of winter fun precip








Wed. Morning Snap








Looking like a mess


----------



## AccuCon

This event might might be a little more than just a salt run for some of us...Picking up actual snowfall now...


























Looks like the northern part of CT and Western Mass

















This looks like a lot of fun









Also seeing something perhaps around the end of the month....


----------



## NAHA

So when is all gonna come into place iam getting bored


----------



## leigh

NAHA said:


> So when is all gonna come into place iam getting bored


Looks to be warm for next 10 days or so. I'm not bored,I'm depressed ! Keep thinking "What if all this rain was snow".Oh well


----------



## AccuCon

Tell me about it, this "ice" event was a "non" event...Still got up at 2:30AM looked at weather, radar, temps, scratched the head....Called a client (dunkin) nope no ice sir...went back to bed didnt make any $alt money 

But it looks like thing will get better just not this week...lol...I really haven't scoured over all the data but here are some CFSv2 10, 15, 20, and 30 day out runs.










Still looking slim by day 15, but better...








However the tides they are turning









And if this is any indication of what February could be...gonna need a bigger plow


----------



## AccuCon

Notice the aforementioned CFSv2 maps and what the temp anomaly is showing towards the end of the month...


















Going to get chilly

















If this all pans out with the precip...










January may end up being warmer then March....Ha


----------



## AccuCon

Holy smokes I guess this is -AO








Pretty wicked -NAO not as wicked as the -AO









CFSv2 Showing -AO








Somewhat Neutral PNA though slightly more +


----------



## dlcs

Hey thanks for posting these maps. Getting depressed here in the midwest too, looks like there may be light at the end of the tunnel.


----------



## AccuCon

dlcs said:


> Hey thanks for posting these maps. Getting depressed here in the midwest too, looks like there may be light at the end of the tunnel.


No problem...I'm thinking we may be in for a February to remember and it might get really really cold...Winter may linger into March longer then we are used to...

Now this is still a ways out so things can change but as it is now it looks like there could be a significant icing event around the 25th...I know QPF this early but hey it blends in all the temp, ptyp, etc, just to get an idea of what could...

Now the temps if they drop we are looking more at snow if they raise more at rain...Needless to say I thought the size of the accumulated Ice are merited a post


----------



## AccuCon

This has some potential towards the end of the month...








This is an image you may recognize (we have seen this many a time this season already)


----------



## leigh

Going to be hard to beat feb 2015,coldest month ever in ct,lots of snow.I guess coming in 2nd wouldn't be too shabby!


----------



## lawn king

Im surprised at how little snow we have received! Last winter was very quiet, and our summer was hot and dry! This senerio, from my observations in 22 years of this awful business we call snowplowing, is very unusual? This should have been a busy winter for us?


----------



## AccuCon

lawn king said:


> Im surprised at how little snow we have received! Last winter was very quiet, and our summer was hot and dry! This senerio, from my observations in 22 years of this awful business we call snowplowing, is very unusual? This should have been a busy winter for us?


Well it has and hasn't been a busy year. Bradly Airport is at 1" over average right now. It has been a very strange winter in that the temps have been ping ponging back and forth. Plus very drastic cut offs in the snow. I don't know about you but I'm looking like right on track for an average season and after last season that's a huge gain, ha.

However, we are about to embark on the second half of winter and I really think things are going to be completely different and in fact spring may be late this year.

Next week is looking very active as we are going to be transitioning back into cold. The storm approaching for early in the week has a lot of possibilities with it. For instance if we get a conveyor going all that rain turns to white gold and lots of it.

What we know for sure is its a powerful system heading our way followed by another later in the week.

Take a look at these Wind Gusts for the first storm, powerful indeed.
















Notice the cooling in the 850mb








And look at these precipitation amounts








This thing is just dumping a lot of precip








Now this is defiantly a very powerful storm coming, high winds, high waves, lots of liquid. But how much snow? Well that is the true question and there is a lot variables. There will def. be some inland snow with this how much is up for discussion. However, if the high comes down a little more and starts feeding into the low coming up the coast and sets up the conveyor of cold, watch out this thing could get big.

And here is illustrating the high and the low all you will need is some of that high to just come down a little bit more on the back end.









Definitely a storm to be watching it will have a big impact on the coast regardless of Ptype.

Now looking ahead look at this 500mb and recall the oscillation talks prior..
















And look at this one (just wow)








And here is the 850mb









So recap. Powerful storm with much uncertainty to Ptype coming early next week, a second storm following towards the end of the week, and a return to winter with some bone chilling cold moving in.

I have a feeling it's about to get active again...


----------



## Masssnowfighter

It seems like the forecasted temps for mon/tues keep dropping


----------



## AccuCon

Masssnowfighter said:


> It seems like the forecasted temps for mon/tues keep dropping


I have a feeling we are going to continue to see this. Also this storm could end up generating its own cold air.

The only real certainty with this storm so far is it's going to be windy!

It's not out of the realm of possibility that the snow line comes further south...


----------



## mjlawncare

It's unreal how nice it is today i dont see much happening for another 10-14days global warming at its finest


----------



## AccuCon

This upcoming storm is going to be very interesting. So we are going to have a mix of things going on with this including warm air advection and the conveyor belt from the high currently to the north. (lots of upward motion)

Here you can see that high starting to dump in cold air as the low (storm) approaches. (Remember 850mb is the snow making factory)









And its cold at the 500









Still some very powerful winds with this one.
NAM 3km Sustained








Gusts









A lot of liquid with this storm









Here is the NAM 4km Snowfall








NAM 3km (think somewhere between the previous and this)








Look at where the snow is and where it's cold at the 850mb









We are going to see some mixing, some heavy wet stuff, some rain, and some ice. (Pretty much all of New England)









I would not be surprised if we start seeing a trend more towards what the NAM 4km has showing albiet a bit bullish (not happening). The ECMWF has a similar look for the Northwest corner. I think the hills could get some out of this one and again that sweet spot north of 84 and west of 91.

Very complex storm though and let's not forget it is after all January.

Here is the GFS Snowfall








Canadian








Euro









Will be keeping an eye on this one...


----------



## AccuCon

Looking ahead check this animated 5 day Avg 500mb (Note where the infamous 540 line is) puts us in a good zone just need some precip.








Feb. is looking cold


----------



## AccuCon

Have a look at the 850 in this 24hr animated loop









GFS 850mb (6hr)








24hr








GFS 500mb is cold









Making a mess








Note the ice and snow where the 850 is cold
















And snowfall maps again it corresponds with the 850hpa (mb) temp
















Canadian








Euro








NCEP NDFD








Looking at something possible around the 1st...We should be transitioning back to cold around then as well...


----------



## Broncslefty7

the next week or so looks pretty dry. i hopefully the cold temperatures in February doesn't block moisture from coming up. we have had quite a bit of moisture so far this year its just a little too warm.


----------



## mjlawncare

Been sleeting here for about an hour now roads and lots getting covered in sleet


----------



## AccuCon

Ha


----------



## aclawn

Close to the coast! but not enough.


----------



## mjlawncare

1.5 inchs of sleet here and still sleeting hard wondering if it will changeover


----------



## AccuCon

I dont see it changing over for the NW corner...Im heading out now to go deal with the fun...


----------



## ScubaSteve728

The Pattern Change is happening! Just need some moisture. 
https://weather.com/news/weather/video/winter-is-coming-back-to-the-states?cm_ven=FB_WX_EC_12717_1


----------



## snopushin ford

any thoughts on tuesday/wednesday? I hope February treats us well!!


----------



## aclawn

wed, A possible broom or blower event if the radiant off asphalt doesn't take care it first!


----------



## leigh

aclawn said:


> wed, A possible broom or blower event if the radiant off asphalt doesn't take care it first!


They seem to be going back and forth every model run.Now a tues pm deal.I'd be happy with at least a pre-salting.The key is to pre-treat,that way you can claim it was the salt that kept it from sticking.Thumbs Up Typical moisture starved clipper.


----------



## AccuCon

Been busy past couple few days...Had a mechanical failure after the last storm that ate up most of last week...

Any ways as far as the Tues into Wed here are some model runs

GFS








NAM








Canadian









10 day MeteoGrams
BDL








Oxford








Really just started looking at this one though it has been on my radar since last week. It's not going to be a big one...I'm thinking between the GFS and NAM. Looking like another potential around the 8th. Will post more information after lunch (most likely).


----------



## AccuCon

Keep an eye on around the 8th...First 15 days of Feb. are looking cold...let's see if it sticks...

2m Anomaly 5 days out








2m Anomaly 10 days out









There might be one or two days (really hours) in between when it warms up but over all...Cold...The 850 is also cold


----------



## AccuCon




----------



## AccuCon

Looking ahead...

Not seeing anything of any significance over the next few days. Maybe a minor dusting in western and northwestern portions of CT and MASS Monday morning.









The energy just isn't there








Sunday is looking rather mild although probably be in the lower 30s to upper 20s all weekend the exception being Sunday afternoon









However moving along towards the middle of the week we have what I think may turn into a real mess.

Here we see the energy








Midday wed.








Thurs. morning








Now why I see a potential for a mess is this appears to be bringing in some warm air from the south with it and leaving with cold air behind it. The GFS 850 hpa really illustrates this.

Tuesday (note the 850 is below 0)









Wed. night you can see it pulling the cold air around








Thurs night








Now looking at the 2m temp snaps here we have Tuesday midday








Wed. evening (notice back at the 850 same hr the warm air in front)








Thurs morning








It's worth watching








Still looking like a cold first half of February for the Northeast








Most of February really








And that groundhog was right, check out the guidance for March


----------



## AccuCon

Because why not...Here is a futurcast of what may happen








Joy....Shoreline may get a salt run after the storm when the temps drop back down below freezing...


----------



## PLOWMAN45

this winter has sucked so far unless its gonna get snowier through feb and march


----------



## shawslawncare

From about the 12th of Feb, it's going to be mild....no snow :-(....time to start spring clean ups!!


----------



## AccuCon

Making a blanket statement such as that with zero backing gives lots of doubt.

Since I have yet to see any evidence this is true. My guess is you saw a CFVS2 run and that's what your are basing this on.


----------



## Evil Diesel

AccuCon said:


> Making a blanket statement such as that with zero backing gives lots of doubt.
> 
> Since I have yet to see any evidence this is true. My guess is you saw a CFVS2 run and that's what your are basing this on.


Hey have you seen the GFS for Thursday


----------



## AccuCon

It still looks very similar to what I previously posted...Perhaps more rain for the shore and eastern portions of the state..Still see snow, and mixing, freezing then rain in the corner..And temp drop after...

Just looked at February 12th too on like all models, still cold....We will see a lot of ping pong with temps, it's called a La Nina....however it still looks cold right into March.

I would not base my energy futures, firewood, or salt supply on its going to be over on the 12th...lol


----------



## shawslawncare

We'll see what transpires!


----------



## PLOWMAN45

My weathermen says wed-night into thursday


----------



## Evil Diesel

PLOWMAN45 said:


> My weathermen says wed-night into thursday


Ur weather man says what! R u so ****** u can't read a map


----------



## fishinRI13

That just showed up overnight. Big coastal storm Wednesday night thru Thursday? That's what I've read this morning


----------



## PLOWMAN45

Evil Diesel said:


> Ur weather man says what! R u so ****** u can't read a map


 i can read just fine newbie


----------



## Evil Diesel

PLOWMAN45 said:


> i can read just fine newbie


I thought it was funny that you have a weather man. Haha. Is he on your payroll


----------



## PLOWMAN45

nope good friend right in ct


----------



## AccuCon

Yes they are talking about this...








Looks good...I'll post more shortly on Tuesdays (more for Northwest CT and Western Mass etc. Advisory starts at 4am currently) and on this later week threat...


----------



## AccuCon

Might have a salt run for a lot of us tomorrow AM. Not seeing any significant snow for Southern New England, however western mass may get a little something...

Looking at the 850 you see its really a bust for snow, here is the NAM








GFS








That is just not good for snow making in CT. RI, parts of Mass. But the 850 Warms up in front of this storm all the way up the coast. So everyone will probably see transitions...

The 500 is still rather cold
















The Canadian shows a good amount of freezing precip and ice New England wide








GFS Snow (keep in mind all of New England will see a mix at some point it seems)








The 850 warms up New England Wide, however as this storm moves out the temps drop behind..

















So be prepared for a freezing mess, I know Winter Weather Advisories have been issued For Northern CT and Western Mass, As well Northern RI.

You can find the Advisory or Hazardous Weather outlook here:
http://www.weather.gov/box/

(though I'm guessing most of you already got it this morning on your smart phone)










**************************************************************************************

Looking forward to later in the week

Euro








GFS








The 850 temp is a go for snow the entire event








Temps are a go for some wicked snow all through the troposphere
850








500








2m Anomaly








Some 2m snaps
























I wouldn't be surprised if this turns into 6"+ storm for a lot of Southern New England...Boston-Htfd-NYC (I know NYC not New England, just drawing a line)...


----------



## AccuCon

Some Meteograms
































Latest NAM


----------



## shawslawncare

....can only be optimitic


----------



## AccuCon

Yeah just to be clear the latest NAM is for tomorrows annoyance...

I think confidence will increase on Thursdays event...


----------



## shawslawncare

Thumbs UpHOPE!!!....otherwise kids will be starving! LOL


----------



## PLOWMAN45

all the nyc stations and noaa are picking up a major snowstorm for wed night into thursday


----------



## AccuCon

Yes, confidence is increasing. I'm out salting right now for the incoming ice threat. Seeing a lot of guys out, states rolling out, and seems like towns up here treated last night. Plus local schools are closed/delayed.

This storm is setting us up for wed/Thursday with the ridge, why it's going to be warm tomorrow. When I get back to a computer I'll do my recon and update with pretty pictures and fancy weather terms...ha


----------



## AccuCon

Quite the ice event in the northwest....

Moving along to Wed-PM to Fri-AM

Lets start with Storm track follow the Low

GFS Thursday 1AM








Thursday 7AM








Thursday 1PM








Friday 1AM









Now looking at the 500mb Vorticity...Note the trof tilted negative and the amount of moisture it is going to be throwing back, you can see how close the wind lines are and the direction.
















It's a little hard to see the wind stream lines since they are the lighter gray and they are so close together (a lot of wind)

850mb temp is cold








Cold right on through the 500mb








Now on the back end of this storm we are going to be looking at some decent winds, drifting may occur (location dependent).

Here we are seeing 35mph to 40mph gusts








Sustained winds









And check this temp snap out...Burrrrrr









It seems like we are a lock for a decent storm, all the models are lining up with the track, the temps are def. there, and the only difference is the energy amounts between the model runs.

So lets through up some accumulation maps. Since it's almost close enough to start doing that...

NAM








Euro








GFS








I feel the Euro is a little bearish and the NAM and GFS may have the idea. In the past storms as we have gotten closer to start time the NAM has seemed to zone right in. So perhaps tomorrow mid day will be a better time to check.

Looking past this we also have a chance for more snow over the weekend (maybe a couple inches) and then something else may be in the works for next week. Seems like its going to be very active the next 10 days...


----------



## trickynicky17

Finally a decent storm can't wait tolowred:


----------



## AccuCon

Here is some more 2m snap of the temps

Wednesday at 10PM








Thursday 1am








I really don't know why people get all hung up on the temp at 6.5 feet. (most the weather making factors are much higher in the air)

Regardless if you look at the storm track from previous at 1AM Thursday the storm is just approaching and just started in SW CT...But its plenty cold state wide...Plus once the snow starts laying down those typically will drop...


----------



## AC2717

What time frame are we looking on Thursday maybe 2am start till when?? Boston area
Thank you


----------



## AccuCon

3am plus/minus until between say 11pm Thursday to 1am Friday Boston area last flake...Times right now are kind of a guess...

I believe winter storm watch is on for 10pm Wednesday until 2am Friday...

Be able to better estimate tomorrow


----------



## PLOWMAN45

i heard maybe up to 18 inches for the coast


----------



## AccuCon

Probably have a better idea on numbers tomorrow...

I'm noticing more and more confidence in the higher amounts though...But regardless I'm preparing to plow and to plow for awhile...No matter how we look at it we all will be Plowing in a good portion of New England, probably all of New England...Though some in Vermont may be like wtf where's my snow...ha


----------



## aclawn

AC2717 said:


> What time frame are we looking on Thursday maybe 2am start till when?? Boston area
> Thank you


----------



## AccuCon

*Watches, Warnings or Advisories for Connecticut*
https://alerts.weather.gov/cap/ct.php?x=1

*Watches, Warnings or Advisories for Massachusetts*
https://alerts.weather.gov/cap/ma.php?x=1

*Watches, Warnings or Advisories for Rhode Island*
https://alerts.weather.gov/cap/ri.php?x=1


----------



## AC2717

bring it :clapping:lowblue::clapping:


----------



## AccuCon

The Evan Kuchera method snow map.

This map does not just use the typical model output conversion of 10:1 when the model data sees snow and the output converts the liquid accordingly. This a rather flawed method in reality since the ratio will fluctuate from storm to storm. It will also change depending on location, both aloft and surface temps, winds, upward motion, and so on. This map applies those factors.










The way this thing is shaping up, and all the chatter I am seeing, it looks like there is a possibility the forecasts are underdone. There is also a possibility that someone in New England could break into the 2' realm (isolated) during this event.

Finally a real New England snow storm!!! its only been like what 2 years..


----------



## allagashpm

AccuCon said:


> The Evan Kuchera method snow map.
> 
> This map does not just use the typical model output conversion of 10:1 when the model data sees snow and the output converts the liquid accordingly. This a rather flawed method in reality since the ratio will fluctuate from storm to storm. It will also change depending on location, both aloft and surface temps, winds, upward motion, and so on. This map applies those factors.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The way this thing is shaping up, and all the chatter I am seeing, it looks like there is a possibility the forecasts are underdone. There is also a possibility that someone in New England could break into the 2' realm (isolated) during this event.
> 
> Finally a real New England snow storm!!! its only been like what 2 years..


I agree I think they're scared to tell people. I'm looking at these models and seeing way higher numbers. I'm on the immediate coast of Maine and they are saying 6-10 or 5-8. 
They will just wait until Thursday afternoon, change their snowfall map, then say they were pretty close with totals Friday morning. Will be interesting to see how this one pans out.


----------



## AccuCon

*Bombogenesis!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!*










I just love that word...and this is an impressive one...Scroll back and look at the others this season...


----------



## leigh

Nice day today, hard to believe it will snow, it's 62 deg and ground Temps 73 lol,l. with my heavy pretreatment and warm temp at outset I'm going for my world record burn off! Berne mentioned that some will lose some acculumation, I'm aiming for 4 inches of lost snow,we'll see what happens


----------



## PLOWMAN45

my weather guy says the totals are going up from 14


----------



## AC2717

What say you AccuCon


----------



## Nwct

Best ...to all :bluebounce::redbounce:
see everyone on the other side ..


----------



## PLOWMAN45

i cant even sleep its 4:00am


----------



## PLOWMAN45

Well its snowing in southwestern ct now my tv station is saying 14-18 maybe 20 inches in some spots


----------



## AC2717

I know we are getting 1-3 tonight but I hear something better in the works for Sunday into Monday


----------



## ScubaSteve728

That storm sucked, wayy too much snow way too fast and it was during the day with sleet before and warm ground temps prior made ice underneath the snow slick as snot and cars packed down the snow, the wind driven snow and drifts sucked as well. Not sure why the governor didn't call a travel ban would have made things much easier.
Now something tonight and maybe sunday into monday. 
2-5 inch storms are way better than that


----------



## PLOWMAN45

My weatherman say he watching 3 storms this week


----------



## AccuCon

Too much snow!!!!! Lol

I'll post some updates this evening once I get back from smacking banks back, joy...

Solid 18" up base of Northwest

In the meantime, listen to Bernie

http://www.accuweather.com/en/video...torms-across-the-east-next-week/2430839568001


----------



## PLOWMAN45

im in sw ct sun/monday there saying hardley anything


----------



## aclawn




----------



## Evil Diesel

Looks interesting Sunday night into Monday


----------



## PLOWMAN45

they said something about thursday again


----------



## fishinRI13

This storm is going to be hit or miss it looks like. Bernie is saying Wednesday night into Thursday, the euro model shows that this can be a replica storm to tomorrow , just forming lower on the coast, giving everyone high snow totals from Virginia on north


----------



## AccuCon

This one should be interesting lots of factors...I havent really had time to look at it all region wide...

Southeastern CT might be all rain...Winter Storm Warnings are in effect for a large portion of New England...Maine is going to get hammered, especially coastal...Boston could get interesting...

Been a busy last few days, scratch that week....Here is some maps...Start time figure earliest onset 7am...

NAM








Canadian (this may be the winner for snowfall)








Kuchera ratio's

GFS (has been acting odd today, figured would add it just because)








ECMWF








Wind Gusts Monday









Animation, GFS...Seems practical, though if the cold sticks not so much, also might get dry cold air mixing in which will lower snowfall accumulation...I checked 850mb and 500mb temps they dont show warming to above snow production and delivery, which confuses.. Didn't really have much time to look this over just threw this all together.










Will be tracking another threat midweek though confidence seems low at this point. Still a ways out though...

Good luck, stay safe, and try to enjoy the best you can. Might have time in the AM to update...

Final Edit:
Just checked 2 meter temps and I think that's where the issue may be much of southern new england hovering around freezing, again this may not happen and the cold may stick...To me means elevation dependent, but like said earlier lots of factors here..its been a long past few days, so I could be off in my thinking....


----------



## Evil Diesel




----------



## AccuCon

Quick update...

GFS 10:1








GFS Kuchera








ECMWF 10:1








ECMWF Kuchera









Canadian









Ptype 48hr Animation









The 850 slightly rises above freezing for a very short time (this is a variable that could change accumulation depending on if it doesnt happen then more snow less mix)









HRRR Rapid refresh 15hrs out









Wind gusts on Monday









Should start rolling in any moment...


----------



## PLOWMAN45

noaa is saying it will sunny,who knows


----------



## AC2717

that was a good pushing one, lots of repairs needed, lots of hoses on the fleet for the town, more than likely due to heavy wet stuff
what is on tap for Wednesday into Thursday? so far just seeing rain


----------



## AccuCon

That was a freaking marathon...I only had a few hiccups and broke one shovel...I know some guys that broke a lot, one of my buddies lost a truck...Too much at once man...too much...Was out for days...

This disturbance coming looks just like that...maybe a salt run (which I'm practically out of)...

Here is some maps...The latest GFS is still processing, I'll try and post it later...I have done zero recon on this storm so it is what it is, sorry.


















Kuchera ratio (I'll discuss this in a later post)


----------



## AccuCon

Unless the trof digs we can, most of us, continue relaxing...NAM is still processing

















Apparently got an issue with my server provider, sorry for the small images...

--EDIT--

Rapid refresh 18hr


----------



## PLOWMAN45

i heard maybe next week the pattern might change again


----------



## AccuCon

The MJO is looking to be heading into a phase 1 or 2 possibly even a phase 3. If the latter is the case it is going to be a very cold march. If it gets into phase 2 we are looking at still a cold march and perhaps winter goes out with a bang.

Looking out over the next ten days doesn't seem like we have much in store for southern New England. Might see a little something later next week. To far out right now to tell.

I'll post some updates around lunch.

That being said, got called out for a salt run at a lot this morning, got hit by a small snow squall...Nothing for 4 miles away in any direction...So wasn't like it was my fault...ha


----------



## AccuCon

Winter may leave us with a bang...The ping pong temps will continue however getting warm next week then back to the cold following...

850 Temps








Then back to cold








Yikes
















Warms up








Back to cold
















So more of the same we have been experiencing right on thru to the end...

But with those cold 850 temps and what looks like it may be far above normal precip.









And looking like a possibility of decent precip right into April









This is a nice set up








The models are seeing us go out with a bang...

46 day ECMWF total snow








The 10 day is looking a little light for Southern New England...again chance of something out on day 10..








15 day though looking more promising








20 day indicating winter isn't over yet








30 day again points to winter leaving with a bang








45 day coincides with the ECMWF









The makings for a late spring in deed.


----------



## PLOWMAN45

cool


----------



## AccuCon

I felt this should be shared, the west coast is about to be hammered. This will put Oroville to the test, my thoughts are with them.










SoCal








NorCal








l








Snow









Look at that thing


----------



## PLOWMAN45

nothing to do this week except get my truck serviced


----------



## snopushin ford

wow does it feel like winter is over! 55 degrees today and tons of melting. I hope march has some snow for us.


----------



## AccuCon

It's not over yet. Every year it ends around March 20th...


----------



## NAHA

More snow more snow. I want a garage


----------



## PLOWMAN45

just paid 300.00 to check brakes and flush transfer case


----------



## AccuCon

Little weather update...Sadly no snow, its just to darn warm...While this storm coming at us form the Midwest will usher in some cold behind it for a day or so its bringing up a ton of warm moisture from the gulf...We may see rain on Saturday...

Here is a 7 day 6hr snap animation of Precip type and SLP (only looped once)








Did I mention its going to be warm first...2 meter temp anomaly








There is cold, but it's a ways out...








Some nice 850 snow making temps








All around cold beginning of March








Here is a couple snaps of the incoming storm system








Vermont get the boats ready...
















I mean you got rain, snow sleet, whole lot of New England blah for the northern states








Really not much snow though, it's the back end bringing in the cold...

















Moving ahead in the search for the next snow...couple impressive looking systems...we shall see how they develop look at this bad boy it comes out the gulf skirts across Florida and then up the Atlantic....Obviously track is TBD, but it still a big boy...


----------



## PLOWMAN45

its over


----------



## jmac5058

Thats all there is to say


----------



## PLOWMAN45

now my weather guy says there lots of winter coming


----------



## AccuCon

It's never over until around March 20th and even then sometimes it lingers on into May...

We have a very active 10 day that could cause a heck of a ruckus...Starting on Friday


----------



## ScubaSteve728

WOW WOW WOW 
big storm next tues into wed????? up to two feet of snow in some spots
https://www.facebook.com/1644825870...4482587095720/607719386105369/?type=3&theater


----------



## PLOWMAN45

yeah now noaa is saying 4-6 for friday


----------



## Nwct

Anybody have a problem with bernie link ? Not working for me .
Trying to get latest on timing /location /amounts 
all 4 locals had something different among them .(not new but usually a little consensus) whatever it'll be day and then it'll be night


----------



## Nwct

*newcanadaflag*


----------



## mjlawncare

Nwct said:


> Anybody have a problem with bernie link ? Not working for me .
> Trying to get latest on timing /location /amounts
> all 4 locals had something different among them .(not new but usually a little consensus) whatever it'll be day and then it'll be night


Idk where in nw ct you are but torrington looks about 3inchs a little less north of there and possibly 4-5inchs for southern litchfield county according to noaa starting 1-2am idk if that helps you


----------



## Nwct

Thx Mj,


----------



## leigh

Nwct said:


> Anybody have a problem with bernie link ? Not working for me .
> Trying to get latest on timing /location /amounts
> all 4 locals had something different among them .(not new but usually a little consensus) whatever it'll be day and then it'll be night


 Same here.I ended up googling Bernie rayno and getting his video by going on his twitter page. https://twitter.com/AccuRayno


----------



## Nwct

I've searched his twitter thanks Leigh
Still NG when I try 
And Aclawn posted link at ct weather
Appears link is broken https://t.co/xBelbU0vbm
Oh well, Hope it's fixed prior to next weeks possibility .. 
Go easy boys . Short of being on a Friday am, this storm looks to be a fine one. Plus a march event.


----------



## aclawn

http://www.accuweather.com/en/video...hilly-to-nyc/hlcgy4yte6pd0nst8xte6qhtbmy4cyov


----------



## leigh

Its a no go here on the coast,not sticking to roads,2 inches on grass.Temps were to slow to drop and now the sun angle is the same as late sept. Remember to put your sunscreen on.!


----------



## aclawn

yup not sticky to roads, 1 salt run and maybe one tomorrow morning and temps yesterday didn't help 61f


----------



## AccuCon

Yeah I'm just running salt the plow is just jewelry at this point....Though some resi's may need to be hit, location dependent for all though...

But lets take a look at what might be coming next week, because oh boy this one is impressive right now...On to the pretty pictures and comments...

Lets check track, here is the GFS (Going to jump ahead and start with Tuesday)









Oh boy









Just ridding right on up north,








Look at that low
















Now lets check the 500 vort

Trof is dug and neg, so its gonna whip








Just look at that thing
























Lets check some troposphere temps, first the 850 (snow making zone)








WHAT!!!!!

Now lets check the 500








Random 6-hr precip, 850 temps and MSLP, just because my gosh is it impressive








And the winds in front, sustained first








Gusts, my my








2 meter temps on Wednesday








Now here's the thing this sucker could pull enough warm air off the Atlantic to throw a little rain in the mix (Long Island coastal Southern New England) before finishing up as snow...

This thing has the potential to drop a foot of snow across a very large area of the North East, definitely want to be keeping an eye on it.

I kind of want to post the QPF Snow Accumulation maps, just because they are so impressive for this time of year. However, it's really way to early for that...Aw heck why not, just take it with a grain of salt, its only a possibility (Really shouldn't pay any mind to this right now though) I chose Thursday to incorporate all of New England.









Also that's the 10:1 ratio which this may not be, it could be 12:1, 15:1, 20:1, Kuchera, etc. There is sooooooo many factors that determine the ratio and thus what makes it very hard for forecasters (I am not one).

I believe this is called the March Lion....Ending with a bang! However this may repeat again in early April, I know crazy right????

Though man talk about a perfect way to end a Southern New England snow plow season, by hitting the slopes in T-shirts in Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maine...


----------



## PLOWMAN45

all the local stations are talking about this already


----------



## AccuCon

PLOWMAN45 said:


> all the local stations are talking about this already


As they should if this comes true at this time of year people could be really caught off guard...

I cant believe the confidence NWS has in a snow event this early, it's really not like them this early...


----------



## Masssnowfighter

My local tv weatherman went as far saying that it is going to be a "historical storm". Usually when they say that we get half the amount they forecasted


----------



## AccuCon

Masssnowfighter said:


> My local tv weatherman went as far saying that it is going to be a "historical storm". Usually when they say that we get half the amount they forecasted


Ok, that's a little over the top...It's not gonna be that crazy, would have to beat the NESIS category 3 storm of 93 first...

Check these out (the 93 I speak of is in there)
http://www.weather.gov/aly/MajorWinterStorms

However it's still looking impressive


----------



## AccuCon

Bernie Rayno's video on the next one (it's 6hrs old you might have seen it, he posted it at 3PM EST)

http://www.accuweather.com/en/video...he-northeast/f4bzi5yte6o0cnlleinxd2ssq527igk4

It's kinda funny, it all has to do with the Banana...Makes me think of Eddie Murphy in Beverly Hills Cop...Look Man!

Edit: Bernie is excited so I mean....actually every Met is but I've never seen Bernie this excited!

All I know is they are going to be selling a lot of milk and bread come Sunday, HA


----------



## AccuCon




----------



## Randall Ave

He has a Periscope video up now. He is funny.


----------



## AccuCon

Wait until we start talking about next weekend.....


And yes Bernie is funny


----------



## AccuCon

Some Meteograms








































































And the WINNER








Here is a link to 19 covering all of New England
http://accuconstruct.com/images/weather/2017-0311/meteogram/


----------



## AccuCon

Beat the rush, go today and get your milk and bread!


----------



## AccuCon

Wow the 18z GFS









Just look at it peg the charts, this is one powerful system








Just wow


----------



## AccuCon

NWS Maps


----------



## AccuCon

Woke up checked some models and well...

Lets take a look at some wind gusts








Remember this is gusts and the map is in knots








You boaters are going oh my gosh did I see that right is that 58mph gusts. Yes and all the way up the New England coast








And sustained








I think you get the picture









Ok, so if this comes true....Well....we're gonna need a bigger plow









At this point been watching the track, the 500mb vort, the you name it and its been pretty consistent overall for days now. Is that run and Kuchera ratio overdone....I'm starting to think we will see more of the above projected amounts in the coming 24-36hrs. This will not be going out to sea. This will be a significant snow storm. I almost hope it's not as bad as that...However we should probably all prepare for that, because when you are prepared there is no emergency.


----------



## rjfetz1

....and bigger snow blowers


----------



## mjlawncare

It looks like they dropped the temperatures a good 5degrees back into the mid 20s for Tuesday from yesterday which would also make the snow ratios a little higher I would think


----------



## AccuCon

Just the fact that that exists from computer model data output...is...well...holy ****


----------



## Avalanche 2500

Bristol County looking @ 18"+ ?? Be Safe guys.


----------



## AccuCon

Second run still got it here is three ratios...

10:1








15:1








Kuchera


----------



## AccuCon

get them chainsaws ready we got a snurricane coming


----------



## Randall Ave

This storm is going to be impressive. Per the maps, all's I can say is God Dam


----------



## PLOWMAN45

i saw that 24 plus for south western CT


----------



## 1olddogtwo

In case someone missed it.....lol


----------



## AccuCon

I made this earlier...Shows the three players on the field ready for the hail marry on the north east...The players are the system coming from the plains, the system from the gulf, and the disturbance off the southeast coast...they all come together and just explode...










Might post another update tomorrow between getting squared away. If not though, be safe all and good luck!

And to laugh



__ https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=1437085232998071


----------



## AC2717

AccuCon
what are you thinking for Time Frame and heavy at what times? (Boston Area)
thank you


----------



## AccuCon

Putting something together right now, while drinking coffee and doing laundry...Gotta have all the snow gear clean and ready...HA


----------



## AccuCon

Good morning all we got a good one coming, pretty exciting for snow/storm lovers! (But not gonna lie it's gonna suck)

First lets cover warnings check your area for the latest:
http://www.weather.gov/ as you can see it's a lot of warnings









Now lets go to start times:
NYC: 2AM
Hartford: 5AM
Providence: 6AM-7AM
Boston: 7AM
Concord: 9AM
Augusta: 12 noon
(click on the capital city for the NWS plotter as of 9:30AM) I would like to state that these are estimates, timing is one of the hardest things to nail down since well the storm really travels at what speeds it wants, one can only guess off of all the data given.

Now lets move on to track. The storm seems to be hugging the coast nicely and both the GFS and ECMWF seem to have shifted it back west, this MAY produce some mixing along the coastal areas and shift the higher accumulations west.

Follow the LOW
GFS








ECMWF








From everything I have heard/seen I dont believe the track will shift much more west. Still a possibility, really will not know until the storms have formed and are off Cape Hatteras.

Now lets look at winds:

Starting with gusts because man are they high, this is going to be a very windy storm and they are going to linger. Seeing gusts of up to 30mph all the way out until Friday for majority of New England.

Tuesday this is when the winds really start to pick up








I mean look at this, just crazy.
















By wed they start to settle down a little








But still hanging around by Friday morning








Sustained Tuesday on the East coast, look at the size of this bad boy









Next let's look at any possible mixing here is the GFS precipitation type
































Looks like coastal CT and RI are spared but might get a little. However coastal Mass up to around Boston it's gonna be interesting. Again this is going to depend on the track. If you look at that east coast wind map you can see how this system is just sucking up the warm moist air off the Atlantic coast and tossing it in, that is what's causing the mix. So if the storm tracks a little more east its all snow for everyone.

Here is a four panel snap showing accumulated Ice, Freezing Rain, Rain, and Snow









Now the amount of liquid that is coming in with this is impressive
























Just wow!

Finally the total snow accumulation

GFS 10:1








GFS Kuchera








The NAM is on the lower side of the GFS and the Euro is a little higher than the GFS. I feel a blend between the 10:1 and the Kuchera is a safe call.

Boy that was a lot of info. Hope this helps everyone, writing these up really helps me understand the weather thus why I do it. The benefit is that I can share it with everyone else.

In conclusion, get prepared, be ready for some long hours, stay safe, and have a BLAST!


----------



## AC2717

thank you very much for the info AccuCon, really appreciate it


----------



## AccuCon

You are welcome.

Forgot to mention.....Keeping an eye on this one, with it's current projected track might be a annoyance for Southern New England








However if it shifts west...HAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHA


----------



## Masssnowfighter

two thumbs up for the info accucon


----------



## Nwct

Thank you !


----------



## allagashpm

Huge help and really appreciated. Thank you as always and be safe everyone


----------



## cpmi

Thanks for all the info. Be safe all


----------



## jrs.landscaping

Always sneak on here for a look at your predictions, thanks for all the in depth info and explanations


----------



## AccuCon

woke up did some checking....Tracked more west, more mixing on the coastal areas.

HRRR-Rapid refresh 18hrs hourly








Accumulation at the 18hr mark








GFS 6hrly out 84hrs








GFS Storm total accumulation 10:1








GFS Storm total accumulation Kuchera









NAM 4km
















Euro has it tracking more easterly, less mixing but still some and slightly higher total accumulations...

I haven't checked observations yet

I still like my start times (not flurry start time)


----------



## Randall Ave

Snowing here now.


----------



## AccuCon

This is where we have the issues at the 850T and how close this thing is riding the coast just pulling in the warm air off the atlantic


----------



## Randall Ave

Is it snowing up your way yet?


----------



## AccuCon

No, just an occasional flake. Got time to take a shower, last one for who knows....


----------



## PLOWMAN45

snowing In Norwalk


----------



## quigleysiding

Snowing pretty good here was suppose to come in at 5 am. Boss called at three and had us come in early


----------



## AccuCon

Snowing good can't wait for the sun. Side note the Dunkin in a plaza I handle is open.... SCORE!!!!


----------



## quigleysiding

lowred:Little squall came threw at 4 nothing since


----------



## AccuCon

Getting hammered here. Up near Torrington CT.

Sun would be nice make it a little easier to see though I must say these Truck-Lite LEDs are amazing. I'll post a pic

Earlier heading in


----------



## AccuCon

Holy crap is it coming down


----------



## PLOWMAN45

it was a mess with the sleet and rain down here


----------



## AccuCon

I'm still opening up stuff...Drifts killed us.


----------



## AC2717

up in in MA north of the Masspike we were hit with last minute rain and sleet, and it put a huge freeze on everything. Big mess that only salt and the sun can cure, and I am not so sure the salt will help it along as fast as it normally does.


----------



## PLOWMAN45

i heard friday night and saturday


----------



## AccuCon

Looks like a miss on the next storm. Maybe salt on commercial.

What a storm that was though...insane....One lot got 19.5" and that's where my problems began...lol


----------



## NAHA

Is this it or do we have anotherchance before its all over


----------



## AC2717

what am I seeing about this Friday the 31st into April fool's day?


----------



## AccuCon

Yeah it keeps increasing...Saw a silly GFS run...

I'll be checking it out later


----------



## PLOWMAN45

i heard rain


----------



## AC2717

Hoping it rains, I'm kinda done, if its only gonna be a few inches, do rain, otherwise hammer us!


----------



## mjlawncare

Weather channel calling for 3-5inchs for my town Friday night be interesting to see what happens


----------



## PLOWMAN45

well the coast prob wont get anything


----------



## AccuCon

Heading out the door, I will be on the road this AM so maybe I can get some more time in but here is some real quick stuff.


----------



## AccuCon

Kuchera ratio GFS









I'm still iffy on this but the 850 temps seem to agree, lot of mixing though.

GFS hasn't really changed much the Euro has it more north...

NWS for the northwest has 2-4 right now...


----------



## PLOWMAN45

nothing in my area


----------



## AccuCon

I'm thinking this is a zero for CT, RI...Maybe a salt run... Sidewalk, if even...

Western mass, Taconics, Berkshires maybe something. Northern ski areas perhaps a boost in spring skiing extension....

I'm almost thinking the euro is too bullish...

Decent season overall....Time to bring on spring!

4k nam still meh on accumulation








Euro
























Northern New England snow perhaps
850T








Going to be tough on pavement with the snow more during the daylight hours...Let's roll the dice on that


----------



## AccuCon

This is a weak system by winter standards. Look how far the iso bars are spaced


















Happy spring, T-shirt skiing, mud season all


----------



## pldann86




----------



## AccuCon

Bullchit is what this is!


----------



## aclawn




----------



## AccuCon

Yeah I ended up with some pushes, partial pushes, and salting....Really could have thought of better things to be doing at 3:30AM on a Saturday.....Like sleeping!


----------



## Randall Ave

You guys just keep it all up there till next season.


----------



## aclawn

Nice spring skiing up north!


----------



## Randall Ave

Was it snow, or slop?


----------



## allagashpm

Randall Ave said:


> Was it snow, or slop?


Mashed potatoes that needed just a little bit more milk added, and slightly less cheese.


----------



## PLOWMAN45

i think you close out for this year


----------



## Randall Ave

I followed you guys through the season for weather information. Just saying thanks.


----------



## AccuCon

Figured this was interesting...The storm that is approaching now...It should get interesting in the next 6-12 hours...


























And up in the Northern parts of New England in the mountains








I know right....Might even see flakes as far south as western mass

By the way this storm is stalling out and is going to sit up there for awhile...Still hanging around come Monday









Now the temps get crazy this coming week....Seriously

Sunday morning








Monday morning








Tuesday morning








Wednesday morning








Thursday morning








So.....this is just silly


----------



## Randall Ave

Hey, it's almost summer. Raining here. Pretty good to


----------



## AccuCon

Summer wont be here this month

































June we might see normal warmth...


----------



## Randall Ave

My pools staying covered


----------



## MSsnowplowing

I had a great season, hope you all did to.
Just glad it didn't snow in April cause I picked up some nasty virus that put me in the hosp. for 3 days and then sick for the entire month of April.
See you all next season.


----------



## AccuCon

From June 12th the last 7,3,1 and 6 hourly runs of the CFSV2 for winter!





































mail out the warnings


----------



## Broncslefty7

!!!! Cant wait for snow. its way too hot out.


----------



## PLOWMAN45

yeah i hear that


----------



## NAHA

Time to bring this thred back to life?


----------



## Broncslefty7

Yes please where’s the snow


----------



## Avalanche 2500

Broncslefty7 said:


> Yes please where's the snow


Although, I did see some ice .... but of course that was on my Frosted  !!


----------



## Broncslefty7

I think we are going to be waiting until at least January


----------



## fireside

Yup I don't see any December snow for us this year. Historically we see our best snow 2nd week of January Thur feb 20 than itsvery hit or miss.


----------



## Avalanche 2500

Say what!! S. Flurries Fri.pm maybe in the 20's ?


----------



## Broncslefty7

Not in ct


----------



## fireside

Mention of a little mix this week. No big deal but it will help the late as always people. Still waiting on two contracts as normal. I got the verbal same as the last 20 years


----------



## Broncslefty7

Any welders or fabricators around? I need a crate/box built for our new truck.


----------



## mjlawncare

Rain changing to snow here at about 1000ft above sea level


----------



## fireside

Snowing pretty good here! Siding on the house is all ice.


----------



## fireside

Broncslefty7 said:


> Any welders or fabricators around? I need a crate/box built for our new truck.


Let me know. I have been known to do a little welding


----------



## Broncslefty7

Healthy rain snow mix in Newington. Temps hovering at 37.


----------



## mjlawncare

Flakes were flying here for a few hours this morning


----------



## Broncslefty7

sloppy mix in newington


----------



## PLOWMAN45

i heard something maybe for the week of thanksgiving


----------



## Broncslefty7

im almost ready. just waiting on a conveyor chain for one of my spreaders. all truck should be back from repairs at the shop by friday


----------



## AlliedMike

as of right now we are looking at a cold shot next week looks like there is a possibility of a storm thanksgiving day into Thursday


----------



## AccuCon

I am not ready for winter yet!

Hope everyone had a good spring/summer/fall...

Weatherbell just updated there winter forecast yesterday linked here:
https://www.weatherbell.com/winter-2017-18-early-november-outlook

I've been watching models and I dunno might be something around the end of the month but its still to far out, have a feeling this is going to be a difficult year to gauge storms...There will be a lot of fighting going on with the cold and warm air, which does produce precip, but how that precip falls is the key....

Anyways firing up the old weather machine here we have a look at some 2m temp anomalies, see we have a warm shot followed by another cold shot.








That gives us a bust out the shorts day


















You see this fight (again these are 2m temps)

















Now these are just really funny pictures, but here is 10 day and 16 day snow totals
















I think towards the end of this month the North East ski country will sees some snow, the rest of us not sure...

Now when you look at what the models are seeing for the 7, 10, and 16 day precipitation anomaly its not looking so hot
























The Euro with Kuchera ratio even less 10 day outlook








That's to be expected. I recently changed some commercial properties over to seasonal in doing so I looked over 4 seasons worth of records and wouldn't you know it's always snowy in February! :laugh:

Keep your stick on the ice....


----------



## PLOWMAN45

so nothing as of right now


----------



## AccuCon

Figured I'd add some MeteoGrams and an Accuweather snap

Bradley








Oxford/Waterbury








Barnes AF Westfield








Pittsfield Muni








AccuWeather somewhere in CT


----------



## AccuCon

Well we have this coming this weekend








However our temps at 850








And 2m








Give us a whole bunch of cold water








By the time the 850 temps are in the snow zone on the back end








And the precip has moved along








Might get some slop in ski country


----------



## NAHA

I have to frame 2 houses after thanksgiving so it will snow


----------



## AccuCon

Well it's looking very much like all rain for this weekend with the exception of maybe the wicked north of NE. Here we take a look at the incoming storm...


















But the 850 temps a no go









And look at these soil top temps..No go on the ice, at least for southern New England








Lots of rain, but a little mess going on up by Canuckistain








But these 2m temps on sunday....Scorcher









So that's this weekend...Now lets shift gear into a more long term look and check some temps and what not.

Remember these are difference from mean so, a 0 (white) around december is good indication temps are prime for snow.

Day 0-5 








5-10, this puts us into Turkey Day...Might be slightly normal than usual but pretty close for us in SNE.








Day 10-15








Days 15-20 better








shooting out to day 30-35 Could this hold, may we get a white Christmas?????








The euro control group thinks so








Ok enough of that sill picture dreams of a white Christmas stuff...back to reality!

We are not seeing much around Thanksgiving, but that is a week out...And there is this system coming our way it's currently forming down in the Caribbean










But the 10 day accumulated snow in the models is not picking it up
















And the current model possible temps are on the warm side for anything substantial









So lets see some more long term outlooks checking the euro ensemble means.

Day 0-5








5-10








20-25








And finally here we have the saddest of all the 0-32 day precip anomaly









So in summary: This weekend cold water shower, something to watch for post turkey day, and lets keep that eye on a white Christmas. In reality I'm not seeing anything of great excitement ahead.


----------



## Evil Diesel

Maybe something to watch next weekend


----------



## ScubaSteve728

pattern change coming 
https://www.facebook.com/Northeast-...jcwZ728cqkaUN_wpTWV9Sh44D4tYZBURspjR4&fref=nf


----------



## Broncslefty7

I’m excited to see these posts again. It means snow is at most a month out!


----------



## AccuCon

So in 2014 Bradley broke a record on Nov 26th with 4.6" of snow recorded.








This year not so much, but it's coming so let's just get this out of the way










Still seeing a possible white Christmas for many but that is still a ways out looking more short range there really isn't much. A little something around 144hrs and 8 days out.

Lets have a look at some temps.

The next 5 days stay warmer than avg and then by the 5-10 they are still a tad warmer than average.








However come 10-15 it's a different story








Models think it will hold too. Here we have days 40-45 (then scroll back up and check out the projected snow)









Not really seeing any big threats in the near future (0-5 day) as the temps just wont be there. Actually it looks like we will have a very nice stretch of weather for the next week or so.

But keeping an eye on upcoming systems we have to take note of this out around the 5th-7th december. Mind you this is a week out we are talking about so anything can change.

Note the upper Low placement








This does set up for








But the temps just wont be there not in the 850 or the 2m lets look at the 850 for the east coast around that time frame.

















And these 2m temps definitely do not support anything of the wintry type








Which gives us a mix way up north and a whole lot of cold water down in the southern part of New England.

With this temp anomaly, I mean








However on the back side you can see it brings the cold with it









But it's not looking like much more than rain
















More silly pictures

















However lets look out 16 days
Soil temps








2m Anomaly








2m snap








Accumulated snow projection








And remember the long range at the beginning....

In summary next 7 days doesn't look like much of anything but above avg temps. There is something to watch around middle of next week mostly for the northern parts of NE, and then keeping an eye out on the second half of December as temps fall.


----------



## FordFisherman

Keep an eye on Dec 9...


----------



## Broncslefty7

Deal lol


----------



## PLOWMAN45

thats cool


----------



## PLOWMAN45

gill Simmons was talking about a coastal storm and a pattern change


----------



## AccuCon

Will it snow? Will it snow in Mexico, Texas, New Orleans???? Possibly....

The GFS thinks so








This is rare but this does happen and in some places in Mexico it happens more often then you would think, they also have mountains 

Enough about that lets check out the set up and what we are looking at.

The 500mb or the mid level of the troposphere, aprox. 18,000 feet, and what is called the steering currents. (Jet stream is up at the the top of the troposphere at the 300mb level or roughly 30,000 feet)









Notice the positive tilt of the trough (the area over the great lakes) for a good snow storm in New England you want this tilted negative which brings the energy (coming in from the south, see the shortwave) back inward instead of pushing it out to sea.








Here we have a more neutral tilt to the trough but it never goes negative. while the ocean waters off the coast are still warm this will help push the system back west and thus we get this tricky prediction and perhaps a glancing blow or a complete miss.

Now lets look at the surface maps








See how close it comes








But also notice how stretched out it is, and that you can see back on the 500 vorticity map, again not a prime ingredient for anything spectacular.

The Euro has it a bit more to the east (last night it was the opposite between the models)








GFS at 06Z sunday








There's that shape....anyways moving along

Temps in the 850mb (where the magic happens) aprox 5000 feet are prime for snow making and look to stay that way for awhile, seems like winter is here.








Temps all the way down to the ground look good to go here is some 2m and soil temp snaps

















So that will give us precip types as such









However the models are going back and forth as they usually do but lets take a look at the pretty pictures

10:1








Kuchera ratio









ECMWF








Kuchera








And zooming in even further









I have a feeling the last is most accurate, again going back to the 500mb and the set up we have. However this still could be nothing more than clouds and a flurry or two.

The set up has been consistent over the past few days just shifting back and forth between east and west. I'm really seeing just a glancing blow on this storm.

The follow up threat on Tuesday may be of more significance and is something else to continue to watch. Remember second half of December was the ticket and possibly a white Christmas.


----------



## PLOWMAN45

so is it bust or not


----------



## AccuCon

I have a feeling for most resi guys yes, bust. For commercial guys, meh 50/50 location dependent.

I do not believe it will be anything significant other then the first storm or close call of the season...It's a tricky one for sure and will be keeping an eye on it.

NWS seems to concur


























And I think whoever writes the hazardous weather outlooks nailed it.

Accumulating snow is possible across eastern Massachusetts and Rhode
Island Saturday and Saturday night, but impacts further back across the
interior can not be ruled out if the storm ends up tracking further
west. While a further west track would increase the accumulating snow
threat across parts of the interior MA and CT, it would bring warmer
air off the ocean and may allow for more rain to mix in across the
coastal plain. Finally, it is also possible that the system passes
too far east of the region to bring any precipitation much further
northwest of the Cape Cod Canal.


----------



## mjlawncare

Dot have been out spraying the highways with pre treatment today if that means anything


----------



## Broncslefty7

yes! give me an excuse to go spray lol.


----------



## Broncslefty7

bernie says could be 3-6 back to hartford....

https://www.accuweather.com/en/vide...eat increasing for mid-Atlantic and northeast


----------



## AccuCon

I'm going to hold off on any call until tomorrow afternoon...I have a feeling everyone is getting really excited.


----------



## MSsnowplowing

Weather channel 3-5 during the day, 1 inch at night
Accu weather 1-3 for the day
Channel 3, 3-6 across most of the state
Channel 8, just says light snow
channel 30 flurries.

take your pick.

I'm going to wait and watch and if we hit the 2 inch mark, then I will call my guys and out we go.

Which is pretty much almost every single storm we get all season long


----------



## Avalanche 2500

3-6" poss. ? Don't forget to p/u BEER!! then milk, bread  lowblue:


----------



## MSsnowplowing

LOL, almost forgot, I have to share this one, nothing like snow coming in 2 days to really spur people on, just signed 2 more contracts.
Next year, I am putting a time limit on mine, I'm giving them 30 days and if they get back to me like this, I'm adding 10 percent to the price for the last minute headaches


----------



## AccuCon

My brother just sent me video of his backyard... it's snowing....in Houston Texas!


----------



## PLOWMAN45

now there saying 3-6 inches plow is on


----------



## Broncslefty7

Brine sprayer is full, we are spraying tomorrow afternoon.


----------



## fireside

Oil leak fixed


----------



## Broncslefty7

Nope. 1 drop per 30 seconds. Have two gallons in the cab. The DT466 E will just shut off if it gets low on oil so I do not need To worry about blowing the thing up.

My international guy is coming on Sunday to fix it. I have 2 gallons of rotella T on the passenger seat. I just need to set up an Iv lol. 

Even if I just run it for an hour or two, I need to spray and plow for a little, I’ve never owned a truck this big or a V plow. So I am AMPED.


----------



## leigh

Broncslefty7 said:


> Nope. 1 drop per 30 seconds. Have two gallons in the cab. The DT466 E will just shut off if it gets low on oil so I do not need To worry about blowing the thing up.
> 
> My international guy is coming on Sunday to fix it. I have 2 gallons of rotella T on the passenger seat. I just need to set up an Iv lol.
> 
> Even if I just run it for an hour or two, I need to spray and plow for a little, I've never owned a truck this big or a V plow. So I am AMPED.


Make sure you have a tow strap with you, or like when I had my international I left it hooked up to the rear permanently lol. That thing will plow like a beast, the weak point is backing out of piles after a push! I found ways to plow in circles so I didn't have to keep shifting ! Buy some tire chains to have on hand just in case. Sitting up high and looking down is a treat.Have fun.Oh and keep a short shovel handy so you can throw some salt under rear wheels when/if you get stuck. Hope that doesn't sound negative lol, just reminiscing .


----------



## Broncslefty7

Thanks leigh. its automatic so that wont be too bad, i havnt bought tire chains yet but it will be working the same block of properties with my caterpillar. which is about .02 miles away from the garage/tow shop that we use for our mechanical work. it came with some really nice meaty tires on it so we shall see!


----------



## Randall Ave

Broncslefty7 said:


> Nope. 1 drop per 30 seconds. Have two gallons in the cab. The DT466 E will just shut off if it gets low on oil so I do not need To worry about blowing the thing up.
> 
> My international guy is coming on Sunday to fix it. I have 2 gallons of rotella T on the passenger seat. I just need to set up an Iv lol.
> 
> Even if I just run it for an hour or two, I need to spray and plow for a little, I've never owned a truck this big or a V plow. So I am AMPED.


What's leaking on it?


----------



## leigh

Broncslefty7 said:


> Thanks leigh. its automatic so that wont be too bad, i havnt bought tire chains yet but it will be working the same block of properties with my caterpillar. which is about .02 miles away from the garage/tow shop that we use for our mechanical work. it came with some really nice meaty tires on it so we shall see!


Youll be fine.Not sure if your salting with it? You'll be laughing as you slowly empty salter.The truck will slowly loose its "beast mode" Sort of like the hulk going back to being Bruce Banner lol Have fun sat.


----------



## Broncslefty7

I have a 750 gallon 3 lane sprayer on it.


The high pressure pump is leaking


----------



## Broncslefty7

She came out pretty decent actually.


----------



## AC2717

AccuCon you are going to make us wait until this afternoon, suspense is killing me


----------



## AccuCon

Plow on!


----------



## leigh

I'm not going to say a word! Except, here we go again lol


----------



## vortec7622

I'm at work in Spencer, MA currently and its snowing steadily. Paved surfaces are wet but everything else is already turning white. Getting excited now.


----------



## AccuCon

Plowed/salted first lot of the season!


----------



## NEhomer

Broncslefty7 said:


> She came out pretty decent actually.
> 
> View attachment 175316


Nice rig, congrats. I bought a Boss V last year and it's tops.

I'm in Western, MA and we're looking at 4 inches or so so the plow's mounted and ready.


----------



## NAHA

I wanna go push snow. State ist calling the little guys yet


----------



## Broncslefty7

Pushed 2" in Hartford so far, maybe maybe another inch in the last two hours.


----------



## AccuCon

5" so far base of Litchfield hills about an hour ago


----------



## mjlawncare

We ended up getting 6inchs it was a good storm to start the season


----------



## Broncslefty7

Yeah good break in storm. A little slow for my liking though.


----------



## mjlawncare

Whats monday night tuesday looking like im seeing 2-4 for my area monday night Tuesday morning


----------



## Broncslefty7

Hartford looks like an inch Monday night, then rain all day Tuesday.


----------



## AccuCon

PDF Prints of the NWS Stations for SNE snow totals:

KBOX KALY KOKX

Im looking over weather data now on the upcoming event and will probably make a post before I head off to NAPA


----------



## fireside

Please post soon. I need to decide on vacation night by 3pm


----------



## AccuCon

So it's going to winter precipitate and it wont be pretty.

















So looking through the column we find the trouble maker 925 temps








The temps at 850 are good to go with the exception of here








The snaps 6hrs before and 6hrs post are in the snow zone and as you can see this is close or at freezing.

Problem is its pulling a bunch of warm moisture off the Atlantic note the direction.








Checking the 2m temp snaps








Well that's warm








and back to cold








Lets play watch the clipper and follow the Low
























Yet we zoom in and 








For snow maps we have this
















A NWS Plotter in HTFD County









Looking forward nothing much on the coming weekend, yet, but still watching. The temps are going to be cold for awhile as seen here.
























I'll leave off today with a Meteogram of Bradley


----------



## AC2717

Got Skunked in Watertown MA, town burned it due to the stall out, and we didn't get the call, trained a rookie though so all was not lost, Watertown ended up with maybe 4 inches tops, but just a few miles west was up around 7


----------



## Broncslefty7

what are we thinking a sloppy mix for tonight? everything turns to rain by 10:00 tomorrow? maybe get a salt run in for those who show up to work early.


----------



## fireside

Looking more like rain, timing is everything this time


----------



## MSsnowplowing

12-9 not to bad, wish it hadn't mixed with rain, we only about 2.5 inches because of that but got our feet wet.

In bed sleeping waiting till the storm ended at midnight.
Get a call from one of my hotels around 830pm, "it's bad out here, our customers are having a hard time, we need a plow truck"
first thought is "Oh frack, I messed up and it came down harder than I thought"
Get one of my guys who lives within 3 minutes of the place to go there while I get ready.
He calls as I'm pulling out.

There is only about 1.5 inches on the ground maybe a little less and it's soupy.

So I get there and start touching up the roads I notice most of the cars have out of state plates for places that don't get hardly any snow and all I could think was go home and don't come back if you can't handle less than 2 inches of snow.


----------



## AccuCon

I'm not taking the plow off but I also don't think it will be needed...Think the yellow box in the back is going to be more on call for tomorrow...Then again maybe not...the temps are just not cooperating and these are the most annoying storms, no idea what you're going to get.


----------



## Broncslefty7

yeah it looks like a lot of sloppy rain by the end of the week.


----------



## AccuCon




----------



## Broncslefty7

yeah looks like CT is out of it tonight.


----------



## AccuCon

Possibly morning salt run winter weather advisory.


----------



## Broncslefty7

coast line could see an inch tonight


----------



## NAHA

Ian ready for a decent storm.


----------



## AccuCon

Thinking salt run...be up early


----------



## mjlawncare

We got a 1.5inch close to 2 in spots


----------



## AccuCon




----------



## ScubaSteve728

maybe a salt run christmas eve/day? http://www.northeastweatheralert.com/christmas-outlook


----------



## AC2717

anything to speak of Friday the 22nd or Xmas eve/xmas for the 128 belt of MA?


----------



## NAHA

I feel like they don' wanna say anything and butcher the foreast. Xmas day looks like something but wtf I know lol


----------



## AccuCon

Working on a weekend update...Lots going on, thinking for MA and CT this afternoon, probably a whole lot of nothing...But as the weekend progresses...


----------



## AccuCon

Where to start, it's going to weather out for a bit. Really think all the ice worry for today was mostly overblown. However later this evening and Saturday morning may be slick.

The culprit we see is at the 850mb and the temps








That is just no good for the white stuff, however it does move out come sunday








Now looking at two meter snaps this evening








Saturday 








You can see how the potential for freezing stuff is there with temps hovering around the 32 mark.

So we get this on the freezing rain next 12hr








By Sunday morning everyone gets a nice crusty layer...yikes








So for our brothers and sisters up north, you get the whole mess








Now before I put up a 96hr animation lets take a look at the energy coming after this first system that is currently putting down snow in up-state NY, VT, NH, and Maine.

Now follow the max (that bright red colored area) and think of it as a snow gun about to toss it down on us in NE








Trough is negatively titled, 850 temps are good, 2m temps are good, and that's a nice blast of energy that's going to hit the eastern seaboard and be pushed right up north by that frontal boundary you see set up off the coast currently (its the blueish band below our snow gun).









Looking more and more like a white Christmas, as in that day! 
Look at that track, that's a what we want, eh!









Alright so here is the next 96hrs in 6hr increments animated ptype (that ice though!)









So lets take a look a the silly pictures....
































And the Canadian isn't all wacky for once...









And for a recap









Oh and we got something to watch for next weekend as well the temps are going to get chilly up in here for the new year. So more to follow, until then keep your stick on the ice and Plow on!


----------



## MSsnowplowing

What's Christmas day looking like?
I'm hearing a coating up to 3 inches.


----------



## AccuCon

Christmas day was the snowfall maps from earlier runs today... I'll try and update as we get closer... looking plowable


----------



## AccuCon

What an ICEhole...1/2" of ice accretion good lordy









Scoping the futurcast now...Seeing some interesting stuff!


----------



## AccuCon

So that was a pain in the butt. I really really dislike ice storms. Personally I'd love it if got cold, stayed cold, and just snowed. So looking ahead it seems we have a very active and cold next 30 days ahead of us and this may be a long post, in fact, it might be two.

Quick synopsis, it's going to winter out, it's going to get cold, definitely a threat for next weekend, and a partridge in a pear tree.

Before we go any further I'd just like to share these projected wind chills come Thursday










OK lets get started with tonight thru Christmas day. There is def. some worry of mixing especially for coastal areas Along CT, most of RI, and much of MA. North Western CT, Western MA, VT, NH, ME all looking like snow, maybe extra heavy snow in along a the mixing line, that line will become clear.

So let's dig in and away we go!

Let's start with the mixing line this area troubles me








Now why? let's check the 850 temps








Ah HA that explains the rain! but lets go further down the column and check the 925mb








So the snow that formed at the 850 begins to melt as it falls!

But temps will be around freezing at the 2m








So that makes for a mess along the coastal areas and a bit inland as previously discussed.

Illustrated here, really shows the line








Now the 850mb prior to that we see its only warm along the coast








And after it's darn cold everywhere








So this means start snow, mix, end snow.

As seen here:








Ok so let's get to looking at what the models are thinking for totals.

Canadian GEM








Canadian RGM








ECMWF








NAM








GFS









They all kind of seem to agree for the most part, we shall see.

Moving right along it's going to get cold at least for the next 10-15 if not 20+ days. You saw the projected wind chills earlier but lets look at the overall temp anomaly

Days 0-5








days 5-10








32 day avg









Possible snow next 25 days in 5 day chunks








So that's looking way long range, but what is this I spy for next weekend.

500mb








Energy, neg tilt, all sorts of goodness for a heck of a new year.









Just bombing away...Still very early but this is one to keep an eye on especially with how the set up is looking. Remember though lot's of pieces need to come together to produce a big ole fashion snowpocolypse!

So in summary white Christmas for the majority of NE, it's going to be a mess but hey it's Christmas! I plan on plowing stress free Monday! After this storm comes some serious cold and it looks to linger along with a possibility of a snowy next couple weeks and finally a sizable threat to watch for around the new years.

I'll try to post any updates if anything changes and as we get even closer may post some update snowfall maps. Also if I find anything else worthy, I'll try to share! Until then keep your stick on the ice and plow on Wayne!

lowblue:


----------



## AccuCon

Timing lets say 8PM-2PM Monday mixing occurring in the middle 4am-5am +/- hr (NWish CT)


----------



## AccuCon




----------



## AccuCon

Should be starting soon until then here is some updated models

















Think this GFS is underdone








Still underdone but better








The NAM








Canadian









The trouble I see and why the models may be showing what they are (GFS)








But focusing closer on the hours and using the NAM high res 3km


















Now it's only a brief time the 850 temps get this way, and notice they are still close to freezing so, it makes me think the euro and Canadian even the NAM to an extant are more on target. We shall see though...

And this 925, again these temps are not the entire storm only during the mixing. So it's really how much it mixes that will determine the final outcome









Still thinking most of the coast will not see much on this one.

The HRRR rapid refresh is coming in however its only processed up to 8hrs...stay tuned, I'll post when it gets a better picture of the whole strom.


----------



## AccuCon

Got bored so I decided to animate this GFS 6hr Ptype 6-30hr, note the ice showing up in RI








The latest HRRR out to 18hr








And for the heck of it here is an animaton of the HRRR picking up the storm (hrly from 4hr to 18hr)


----------



## AccuCon

Thumping good here base of the Litchfield hills / Farmington river valley (Hartford/Litchfield county line)...

Give it couple more hours last flake like 4hrs...Looks like one more heavy band before it tappers off...From what I could see on MRMS NEXRAD


----------



## quigleysiding

Snowing here on the coast . Was all rain this am . Mostly just a dusting so far . Dropped a quick 1/2 inch


----------



## camaro 77

Snowing hard in the franklin ma area


----------



## NAHA

Whiteout conditions in the Malden Melrose sagas area


----------



## quigleysiding

All done suns out . That was great for all the white christmas people .


----------



## FordFisherman

Picked up 2" with that last burst. Real fluffy-started to melt quickly.


----------



## mikelawtown

Went out once for like 5 inches and sun came out which made it a perfect day


----------



## AccuCon

It was a very nice storm to plow, no one was around. The sun came out and never have I had a storm where I took a break to go have a prime rib super, lol...However this AM went out to salt, def. needed especially the spots that didnt get much sun.

Saw a bunch of lots guys waited until late night or early this AM (some still untouched early AM) and man they are up the creek. It froze hard, spots I left some trails froze up rock solid barely even scrape them off with the plow.

Do any of you guys use gravel/soil/etc yards for salt? I drove by one my buddy who does resi uses and they where not open. That be a bummer if your lot was froze up and thats what you depend on. I suppose it would work for resi guys but commercial think you really need your own bin and loader, thoughts?

Also weather update later


----------



## AccuCon

Looks like the Atlantic ocean is going to be getting a whole lot of snow next few days, us on land...Not so much.

The clipper coming through today just fell apart and well it's dumping on the Atlantic.

Storm around the 4th looks like another dumping on the Atlantic.

Saw something 10 days out, but mostly looks like it will be cold and flurries for now.

Today at the 500mb








This thing just came out way to fast as you can see lot's of energy but it zooms right past us.

Gives the Atlantic








Later in the week something that was looking good turned to this, the negative tilt is not there for one.








Giving the Atlantic even more








And I dont see that changing as of now. However the GFS thinks we can get a little something out of it, bet it changes.









But this cold
















Just doesnt stop








Even out day 15








In fact the whole next month looks to be on the cold side









Come the 1st








And the wind chills 








Slight warm up next week








Right before....








And the GFS is sniffing out some snow too, we shall see...









Which is ok with me already have a heck of December on the books!


----------



## leigh

Steady lite snow here in milford at 9:40 .Been snowing for 2 hrs and the ground is barely covered.Thinking that the sun angle may cut into the 1" expected. Very warm today compared to the past week.


----------



## AccuCon

Sun angle has nothing to do with it.

Even if sublimation was occurring that's not something that happens quickly, that and the fact its rather cloudy out. I find it humorous how people get all caught up on sun angle...Makes me chuckle.


----------



## AccuCon

You think it's cold now....next weekend snaps


----------



## AccuCon

So we got a nail biter here. Will the system coming up the coast hit us or go OTS. It's close very close, once things for sure it's going to be cold for awhile.

I am also seeing some impressive numbers on 2 meter and wind chill temps looking forward after this system brings a little 20 degree heat wave, behind is some brutally looking temps.

So what we got is a deep dug trough that's at a neutral tilt, the GFS has it going negative a little later than the Euro.















It's very subtle but you can see the ECMWF has gone to a negative tilt while the GFS is still neutral on the trough axis. Remember this is up at the 500mb where the steering currents are and a negative tilt here will pull the energy in closer along the coast line. Timing is everything.

You will also notice the GFS has a more formed system well the euro does not.

Checking track
















I mean holy kung pao chicken. Maine is gonna just get unloaded on either way it seems here.

And for southern NE you can see it doesnt need to shift much, just look how close that L is passing on the GFS









This really shows you the trough this is 500mb wind speeds








See how you want that to be a more negative tilt to pull the system closer to shore and then its snow for everybody, with these temps.

Speaking of temps looking at the 850mb you can see the system bringing some warm air with it, why we might even see 20's on Wednesday and Thursday








But after she moves out, boy oh boy.








Bet you just said some choice words, now take a deep breath and remember we are looking at the 850mb. Funny thing though the wind chill maps aren't much different, ha, get to those in a moment.

It appears on the tail end of this system there will be some gusty winds associated with it.








And with temps on the back end like this








Bobs your uncle








And just to really put that shiver down your spine








Holy cheeseless god, that's ri-dam-diculous!

The cold seems to be here for awhile at least next 10 days if not longer. However this system coming is something to keep an eye on, its going to be cold, its could be snowy, it could be windy, heck we could be in New England. Positive side dont think we will have to worry about any mixing.

Ok so what you have all been waiting for the funny pictures, you can see the disparity between the GFS and the Euro and even the Candian gets in on it with the Euro's idea.

15:1








Kuchera








This has been going up and down with totals over the days, one run I saw 14 in place of the 7's, just keep that in mind.

10:1 (can toss this out its far to cold)








GFS just not feeling it.
10:1








Kuchera








But the Canadian is down like a clown with four flat tires.








Be watching this one very closely.

Will 2018 be this? Every day I'm shoveling....









Stay warm and Happy New Year!


----------



## AC2717

great review on Sunday AccuCon
any update today? hopefully its moving closer in for us!

got to GET ME SOME OF THAT!!


----------



## AC2717

Channel 7 in Boston is saying 8-12 inside 495 beltway


----------



## AccuCon

Tracking close. I'll try and do an update tonight or tomorrow morning.


----------



## AccuCon

Real quick update. I will try and do a more comprehensive review tomorrow.









See that little jog in the track, that right there is the difference between getting a foot or 2 feet along the coast and 3-6 inland or a foot.

Has to do with the trof and being mostly neutral then slightly negative, if it tilts back sooner then its game on as you can see thats some serious energy









The NAM has it more tucked in to the coast and that could mean bigger snow for most all of us in New Engalnd








Thought I'd toss up the jet real quick

















So Im still with the 3-6 inland and the 1' along the coast but I'd plan for 1' inland and 2' along the coast just to be safe. We have a serious amount of arctic air in place and this is a very powerful storm system coming at us.

Some funny pictures

















Think the Euro is underdone in places. The latest GFS wasnt ready at this time but it has been in my opinion way underdone this entire time the track it has is so off then the rest.









I do not believe that to be the case.

Just look at this thing, look at that low, impressive








Let's also keep in mind there will be winds associated with this especially on the back side and it seems it will stay windy for a bit







.


----------



## leigh

AccuCon said:


> Sun angle has nothing to do with it.
> 
> Even if sublimation was occurring that's not something that happens quickly, that and the fact its rather cloudy out. I find it humorous how people get all caught up on sun angle...Makes me chuckle.


 Just caught this! It was a joke lol Colder than a witches &%$


----------



## AccuCon

The tale of two Jets








As you can see one jet departing to the north and another incoming to the south this is what causes our system to "BOMB" (bombogenesis) and why Blizzard conditions may be possible in parts of New England.

So let's check some tracking. The NAM has this really tucked in to the coast and is showing much higher snowfalls inland with more mixing along the coastal areas. The euro has shifted west and in fact some members are close to the NAM. The GFS while has shifted west still has it a bit out.










Looking at the euro spaghetti you can see some members have that track very close much like the NAM










And here you can see that 40N70W benchmark and the system bombing out








But the trough just doesn't move much passed neutral which doesn't pull the system in closer but it also doesn't kick it out.









It does tilt negative, which draws systems in closer, but barely








And just look how close the ECMWF control has it to the 40N70W








Now the temps in the 850 are def. good to go however I see potential mixing along the immediate coastal areas and the cape.









Giving us
















The GFS has even more mixing out on the cape.

Now a couple things we have a good injection of arctic air and man is it going to get cold on the backside of this sucker. Also their will be high winds associated with this system and it seems it will stay windy for a bit after the system passes.

Thursday morning just as the snow really starts in Southern New England. These are sustained not gusts.








Thursday evening, this is showing 20-25mph sustained winds for much of New England.









Temps dropping here we have a snap of Saturday








Projected minimums come Sunday









So we got a wicked system coming our way with snow, wind, and arctic temps. Or as we all like to call it January in New England! All kidding aside this one has lots of potential danger to it and should be treated as such. Some place are going to see blizzard like conditions if not a full on blizzard.

So lets look at some funny pictures with commentary.

The NAM, while at this time in proximity to a storm the NAM becomes more accurate I feel it has the system too pulled in to the coast and these numbers are overdone for inland (however not out of the realm of possibility just very unlikely).









Now we have the GFS this one actually doesn't seem that terrible, perhaps underdone in some areas.









The ECMWF this is really hammering down from the tip of long island right on up into Maine, I really think the 7" line pulls more inland then it is showing.








The Canadian, it actually may be on to something here...








Either way Thursday is going to be Snowy, Windy, and Cold!

Looking forward we have something to watch around next Tuesday but it may coincide with a possible warm up (that could change depending on how much snow gets laid down on this storm) which could pose some issues with ptype.

However after that possible warm up (I'm not really buying it) it gets cold again and we might see a return to more normal temps towards the end of the month.

But in the mean time let's get through Blizzicane 2018 first!


----------



## AccuCon

ECMWF has it hitting benchmark 40N70W.










This is just silly chance of hitting hurricane force winds pretty high








This wind map really gives an idea the magnitude of the sucker








This is in MPH and is showing max wind








Temps at 7AM when she should be snowing for much of CT








Around noon








As you can see even at 4PM it's has not warmed up at all








And then 7AM Friday morning









Couple new snow runs
































Pretty much all in agreement I'd say much of Southern NE is going to get at least 6-8" then up west to east. Would not be crazy if parts of western CT and MA saw a foot.

Now couple in these significant winds and very cold temps you have a seriously dangerous storm. Be safe out there gentlemen!


----------



## Evil Diesel

Here's the plan. It going to snow. A LOT! Be prepared and be safe. Amen!


----------



## AccuCon

This can be found under your local offices winter page and under the "Other Snow/Ice Information" tab

NWS Winter Information - New England Offices
Albany: http://www.weather.gov/aly/winter Covers NW CT and W MA
Boston: http://www.weather.gov/box/winter North/NE CT, RI, Eastern Mass
NYNY: http://www.weather.gov/okx/winter Southern CT
Vermont: http://www.weather.gov/btv/winter
New Hampshire and Southern Maine: http://www.weather.gov/gyx/winter
Northern Maine: http://www.weather.gov/car/winter


----------



## AccuCon

Passing right along the benchmark.

GFS
















ECMWF

















HRRR Rapid Refresh









NWS Winter Information - New England Offices
Albany (NW CT and W MA): http://www.weather.gov/aly/winter 
Boston (North/NE CT, RI, Eastern Mass): http://www.weather.gov/box/winter 
NYNY (Southern CT): http://www.weather.gov/okx/winter 
Vermont: http://www.weather.gov/btv/winter
New Hampshire and Southern Maine: http://www.weather.gov/gyx/winter
Northern Maine: http://www.weather.gov/car/winter


----------



## NAHA

Too soon to ask when's the next 1


----------



## AC2717

got about 15" in town of Watertown MA
Got 18 hours in with the town, went right to work, and then going back for removal tonight 10pm-6am


----------



## AccuCon

Got 15" here as well. Well range 12-15 and ridiculous drifts. That wind!

She's a real beaut Clark!


----------



## AccuCon

Pro tip: Lost the red key to your power clear? Use a spork!









Looking over weather, possible update soon...

In the meantime here's a 32day snow outlook


----------



## AccuCon

I was going to do a reanalysis of this past storm however, don't currently have the time. Perhaps later.

So looking forward, Monday seems to be a meh, pffft, duster... However looking forward towards the end of the week we must keep an eye on. I think the models are overdoing the warmth and this is due to once arctic air gets in place it is very difficult for it to be pushed out. Now you couple this with the very low temps we have had the past few weeks and the near shore ocean temps are dipping close to freezing, thus making it even harder for that warm air to come in. However if it does warm it is not the thaw but a transient preceding the thaw projected at the end of the month, don't be fooled.

Let's take a look.









Here we see the cold projected to pull back








And then before then the thaw








But fear not the return (and this has much to do with oscillations, the jet set up coming, etc. I will try to expand on this in a later update).








Now lets look at the past








And the SST









So you see cold has been entrenched for awhile. The model is not seeing a warm up in near shore temps either








Now taking a look at the current 850mb temps








YIKES....But the models see that pushing back and here becomes the problem.









Now I have been watching the GFS back off the warmth for the end of the week and the PTYPE keeps creeping south with the freezing wintry bull shnizzle.








That's not looking fun at all....








May I suggest buying stock in salt mining operations???!!!???!!!









So we will be watching that. As for Monday-Tuesday not even the NAM has it as much of anything...I like how AccuWeather has it 0-.2" LOL

NAM








GFS








ECMWF








As you can see why









Looking even further down the road we may be in for a very interesting and wild February thru March, oh boy.

Here is a link to some snow totals in PDF format from NWS coverage areas of Southern New England.

Past Snow Totals

Pretty picture of the Global SST








Jet Stream Snapshot








Keep it frosty gents!


----------



## SDsnow

Long range from what I'm hearing is pretty much close to what you're thinking AccuCon. Glad I upgraded my plow!

Short term, coastal forecast is holding up, We'll see 50's on the water. Easy.


----------



## NAHA

So wild as snow?


----------



## AccuCon

So we have a tiny warm up coming. Dont be fooled though this isnt the thaw, yet.The thaw still looks to be around the end of the month, 22nd-ish, into the first half of February. Don't fret though snow is still in the forecast and it's looking like winter is far from over.

So we got this wonderful rain to freezing rain to sleet to snow to aaaaaaaaaaah event coming Friday thru Saturday into early Sunday morning. Looks like a little wind on Friday and a whole bunch of precipitation. This will be a large impact storm to the eastern portion of the USA.










Now we also have some snow projected for mid week. Let's start with this first event and looking at the 850 temps.









That's a no snow zone and why the region will start off with rain. However there is frozen stuff (snow) on the ground so the ground is rather cold, drum roll....Freezing rain...

Here you see come Saturday the temps start receding into the snow zone








By Sunday all of New England is in the ice box again and it looks to stay this way thru the week.








Let's check out the 2 meter temps Saturday








Oh my does it drop right off into Sunday








Stays pretty chilly all week here we have a snap for thursday








Lets take a look at the 6hrly precipitation type animated








Thats going to make for some slippery conditions. But what is it going to do to the snow pack....Funny you ask I have an idea...

The freezing rain projections look like it's going to suck









Current Snow Depth








Bye bye by Saturday. While some may stick around, definitely in shaded areas and what not. Feel band for the guys that didn't push banks back far enough, they will now have tank traps and still be out of room....Tsk Tsk








Because what is this we see by mid week...A little replenishment perhaps








The cold air will support it








The problem I'm seeing is that trof is just not at all what you want








Tilted entirely the wrong way...It does start coming back though








But it seems the storm doesn't really get nicely formed until its up by Maine...So we shall see...

Looking at the long range we see a little thaw followed by a return of cold and the snow outlook is looking good.

32day accumulated projection








The 46day control just has us getting slammed








Here we see the thaw starting around the 22nd








But into the second week in Feb it looks to be back to normal-ish temps








And then winter chooches on


----------



## PLOWMAN45

did any of your weathermen say there watching a large storm offshore for thursday


----------



## Rustyk

Where's AccuCon been? I'm missing all the details!


----------



## AccuCon

Sorry guys, fell off the radar....Anyways I wasn't really concerned since nothing really changed since I last talked about tomorrows storm. A quick update and what concerns me is mixing along the 84 corridor.

The mixing









Here we have a animated 6hrly showing that mixing








here is 10:1








here is kuchera








Now the 2 meter temps are looking cold for the rest of the week here is some snaps

Thursday morning








Friday morning








I thought there was a thaw coming???








There is more on that later though...Look at that last one more seasonable by the 22nd....hmmm that date sounds familiar


----------



## PLOWMAN45

What does all of this man in short i hear its a bust for sw ct tom


----------



## AccuCon

Wouldnt say its a complete bust...Going to be dealing with some slop and some snow, just lower amounts.

I'm heading out now, looks like this thing should be over by noon for most CT.

Latest runs at this time

















































I think the GFS Kuchera ratio little under done, GFS or ECMWF 10:1 doesnt really make sense (both seeing mixing). A blend between the NAM and ECMWF Kuchera Ratio probably best.


----------



## AccuCon

Rizzo pools I'm coming for some juice!


----------



## FordFisherman

Funny **** right there!
Looks like winters taking a 2 week break in Southern New England...


----------



## PLOWMAN45

i looked 8 days out like nothing unless a cold front comes in


----------



## AccuCon

Well well it looks like the break will be coming to an end! As the thaw moves out it's going to get interesting, think cold, think ice, think snow, think February! More on that latter, first lets take a look at Monday night into Tuesday....









Now looking at the 850T
















It's good for snow, question is more on the track but before we get to that check the cold shot 10 days out, next Saturday








YIKES

Now the pattern we are getting into isn't favorable for big bombs however it is favorable for cold, snow, ice, and tricky forecasting.

I digress, so before we take a look at the 500 let's check out the track on the GFS. I have animated the 6hrly snaps so you can get a good idea of the track for Monday/Tuesday








Now lets have a look at the 500 vorticity 








That's just a whole lot of not what we want, it's shallow, it's positively tilted, and just boo!

GFS simialr








Although we do have the jet in our favor and the frontal boundary being very close to shore.

Here is the jet









The euro has the system more strung out then the GFS as you can see here








So we shall see, it's still a ways out. Definitely be keeping an eye out.
Models are seeing snow next 5-10 days









Now looking forward we should be keeping an eye out for next weekend. Models are sniffing out the snow already and look at that projected jet








Look at that cold coming









Temps are falling off on the 10-15








And the 32 day total snowfall is impressive








Not as impressive as the 42 though








So in recap will be keeping an eye on Monday/Tuesday, currently doesn't look like anything huge, but....

Possibility around next weekend (Just realized that's when the Pats win) let's hope I'm wrong....

Temps will be falling (looking below avg for February into March), looks like winter will be back, looks like a bunch of snow, maybe some ice (hope not), and some tricky forecasting lies ahead.


----------



## NAHA

Didt we get a good sized storm after the pats won last year?


----------



## PLOWMAN45

i heard something for Tuesday but i know its early


----------



## quigleysiding

Looking good so far got like 3-4 inches here on the coast


----------



## PLOWMAN45

i hope some nore is coming this weekend


----------



## NAHA

Iam pretty bored iam ready for seat time


----------



## PLOWMAN45

anyone here about saturday night/sunday ?


----------



## aclawn

View attachment 177325

View attachment 177324


----------



## aclawn

View attachment 177326


----------



## PLOWMAN45

all of your links are errors


----------



## aclawn

Move to conn


----------



## PLOWMAN45

im in CT the links are dead


----------



## AccuCon

Get ready to use a lot of salt, looking like a heck of a 7 day stretch. I just started digging into the models will post in a couple hours.

Been out plowing once and salting twice already this week....However I'm on the liquid wagon now. Instant convert, second I put that stuff down and watched the snow melt...yeah 

Oh and remember the QPF/Surface maps are the least accurate map of any model, hence funny pictures.


----------



## Broncslefty7

or get ready to spray some liquid.....

made 2600 gallons so far today.


----------



## Broncslefty7

Acucon did you see a cost savings over how you used to do it?


----------



## PLOWMAN45

my weather man says nothing for sunday


----------



## Evil Diesel

Sunday looks like a big ol' rain event:hammerhead:


----------



## Broncslefty7

Tonight, Sunday, and Tuesday look like rain events...


----------



## PLOWMAN45

that what i heard


----------



## abbe

All rain. What a bummer


----------



## Broncslefty7

Would have been a monster snow storm, looks like all rain for the rest of this week also


----------



## sectlandscaping

Broke damn conveyor chain last storm. Hoping to get it this week. Figures there will be a **** ton of ice.


----------



## AccuCon

So getting all set up with the liquids has eaten up all my free time thus I haven't really been looking at the weather other than on my phone. This liquid stuff is addicting and boy is there lots to learn! Started off with 40 gallons, blew through most of that go to get 55 gallons, and end up with a 275 gallon tote...HAHAHA

Anyways this storm is going to be tricky because of the timing of the change over. With snow rates of 1-2" per hour if it doesn't change over for an hour or two later it will increase snow totals. This being a thermal storm there will be lots of upward motion and could keep some of that change over from occurring.

Looking at the 850 temps









You see the cold air in place and the warm air coming with this storm that's traveling across the plains those colliding are whats going to cause the thump.









This is where the trouble is and it depends on how far that warm air can push in will determine how much and where the mixing occurs.









Cold comes right back in as the system goes out to see and it comes back quickly which also makes one wonder how much of the cold will this warm air system erode.

Now let's look at an animation of accumulated precipitation type, keep in mind this is not radar, at 6 hr snaps.








That looks like a whole lot of NOT fun.

The GFS has the freezing rain to the north.








While the euro has it more south








You can see the differences between the models here is the Euro animation of the p-type









Giving us (this does not include rain)








Typical New England wet, heavy, and icy storm.

GFS









Now it's only going to be above freezing for Southern New England briefly and it's going to get cold on after the storm passes so figure on a rapid freeze up.

























So let's take a look at the funny pictures and keep in mind this all depends on where and when that mix line occurs, it may occur further south thus giving more snow before sleet/frz rain.

ECMWF has the least appealing (other than the NAM) for snow in Southern New England








GFS








Canadian (is inline with the GFS)









So in summary we have a thermal system in play that will cause heavy snow at onset followed by mixing. The mixing timing is what will determine how much snow gets laid down, now if the cold holds and pushes the mixing line down I feel the GFS and Canadian are more on target. As the system exits it will change back to snow and a rapid freeze up is possible. Temps do not look all that warm until the weekend.


----------



## Rustyk

Thanks for the report,armed with this and a spork i'll be ready:gunsfiring:


----------



## Grantski

Holy crap that's alot of thought going into snow / ice removal. If you can predict anything : it's that Northeast weather is unpredictable.


----------



## aclawn

looks like a late start.I hope something comes down to be fair on the pretreat.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/WXTYPE/loop25ne.html


----------



## PLOWMAN45

just hope there is something to look fwd to this month


----------



## ScubaSteve728

https://www.facebook.com/1644825870...4482587095720/776635685880404/?type=3&theater
maybe something saturday into sunday


----------



## PLOWMAN45

yeah i heard about this


----------



## AccuCon

It looks like a quick thump of snow this weekend from Saturday night into Sunday morning. Then it warms up a bit, if you recall back in January this current pattern we are in was going to be a tricky one. The MJO has stayed in phase 7 longer than anticipated which has kept the warmth for us in the Northeast. The Midwest however has been relatively cold with Chicago just tying a 9 day snow record with 2009 and 1902. As the title says only takes a few days to stack up the snow.









Currently most of us in New England are sitting around average to date for snowfall









Enough about that let's get into this weekends shenanigans.

Temps in the 850 look good for the snow making








Thru the entire event









Now this system may have a tendency to shift/correct north which would increase the snow fall amounts for the interior of Southern New England (SNE).

Looking at the 500 you can see it's lining up nicely aimed right at SNE








The 2 meter temps are looking to be hovering at or below freezing, here we have midnight Saturday or Sunday morning








Still hovering around freezing midday








Keep in mind the previous images are snaps and not highs or lows.

The GFS has almost no mixing but overall less snow fall you can see the lack of mixing up until the very end as shown in this animation of 6hrly snaps.









This is most likely going to be heavy snow as the the air column will not be well below freezing from the 850 all the way to the ground. The ECMWF paints a slightly worse picture of potential mixing.









That looks like a sloppy finish!

However the possibility for a decent amount of snow to be laid down looks good. I like the looks of the ECMWF Kuchera ratio best of all the model runs for this particular event (that is not always the case). I know it is early and these are pretty much funny pictures but if I was to draw a snow map (takes way to much time and looks like crap) I would draw something like this.








Perhaps shifting the heavy band of snow north a tad. Again the system is a ways out and things can change but for now I feel that is something to prepare for (always better to be over prepared).

Now by Sunday evening temps will have climbed up into the 40s








And look at this by Tuesday evening, bust out the shorts and the floaties its a beach day!








Next week looks to be rather warm, however the looks like it will be coming to an end and March might just go out with a bang. The MJO is heading into phase 8 and the AO and NAO are tanking. What the hell does that mean you ask well lets take a look

Here is the MJO showing just about every computer guidance model out there going to phase 8








Pulling up the correct reference chart you see that puts us into a cold pattern








You can see how Phase 7 had us in a warm phase.

Now let's take a look at the AO and NAO and what happens to weather patterns when they go negative

















Both are tanking negative and the blocking is going in place so that is setting us up nicely for a big finish to winter.
















And the models are seeing that starting beginning of March








And the Euro control has us just getting hammered with the white stuff








In recap look for a quick thump of snow coming this weekend with a possible sloppy finish and then beach weather next week followed by a pattern shift and cold weather making a come back for March.

Keeping an eye on this coming weekend if anything changes I will try and post and update. Until then keep your stick on the ice (if you can find any, might have to go indoors).

Some links of reference for the MJO
https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/what-mjo-and-why-do-we-care

And Georgia WX has all the up to date runs of the MJO in a easy to read format
http://www.daculaweather.com/4_mjo_phase_forecast.php

The National Weather Service (NOAA) MJO Climate Composites
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/Composites/Temperature/

And for more fun reading  here is some good information on the Upper Air Charts
http://www.meteor.wisc.edu/~hopkins/aos100/upairmap.htm


----------



## AccuCon

Lets have a look at model predicted teleconnections and temp composite analogs from 1950-2011. The composite analogs are for March and past years associated with the similar oscillation condition.

Negative AO








Years with March and a negative AO










Negative NAO

















Negative EPO

















Negative PNA
















Negative WPO

















Sure looks like its going to be a cold March for much of New England


----------



## PLOWMAN45

i heard 8 inches maybe


----------



## PLOWMAN45

my area just got the winter storm watch posted


----------



## aclawn

PLOWMAN45 said:


> i heard 8 inches maybe


It's more like 1-3", not that cold for the high ratio, 6/1 for us. The sweet spot is Hartford to Boston with it being a little cloder. 8+
and then we torch until morch.


----------



## Broncslefty7

ill take 8 inches in hartford all day..... all my stuff is closed sunday.


----------



## AccuCon

Little update on Saturday night / Sunday morning

still like a good 6" for most of SNE temps all look good and the dew point is low enough to support a decent snowfall.

850T stays below freezing entire event it seems








Moving down the 925T is good to go for snow as well








However it gets close along the coast








Dewpoint is definitely prime for snow








Even more so leading up to the event








The 2 meter (which really doesn't play much in whether it snows or not) is hovering around freezing








Cold dry air injection, look how dry it is right before the event

[email protected]








[email protected]








The energy is just aimed right at SNE and here you see it blasting through








The 540 line is right where it should be








The mixing is tough looks like Long Island maybe the shore of CT up through the Cape.
It might all finish with a little mist everywhere. 6" for the majority of SNE with some possible higher amounts localized. The GFS is having some feedback issues and the NAM is overdoing the precip, per usual. The NAM is really best 24hrs out or less. I'm still liking the Euro with the Kuchera ratio


----------



## PLOWMAN45

they been upping the totals


----------



## NewEnglandSteelersFan

Not from your area, but watching this closely. Upper Valley NH here, but if this thing shifts North, some money to be made!


----------



## aclawn

I think with the SFC temps being on the high side are we going to have some melting at first.IMO,i think their over amp on totals.


----------



## Broncslefty7

im still thinking 1-3 for hartford.


----------



## aclawn

There will be a brief period of rapid intensification that will occur with pressures dropping rapidly for about six hours between 7pm & 1am. During this time frame, some heavy precipitation will develop and it simply becomes a matter of when it does and where that precipitation lines up.That will make the difference on totals, for some of us.


----------



## aclawn




----------



## PLOWMAN45

getting colder already


----------



## aclawn




----------



## jmac5058

La La La La La La La La La La La
Mi Mi Mi Mi Mi Mi Mi Mi Mi Mi Mi
F Lady


----------



## AC2717

What's tomorrow (3/2/18) looking like, no one has given any straight answers


----------



## NewEnglandSteelersFan

Still wondering that as well, up here in NH. Many conflicting reports and weather people just staring at each other waiting for each other to speak up.


----------



## PLOWMAN45

i just saw 4-8 inches for sourthern ct


----------



## AccuCon

Well why that last one was a bust for some, others not so much, many saw high winds, and lots of rain. That is only just a little kick off it seems to what lies ahead this March. We have a couple systems that stand out. Looking at mid week, early next week, and then another week after (16ish days out).

However this season was not a total bust for all most hit averages for snowfall and temps (I know I'll be checking the craigslists in the areas that are way below avg, hehehe)


















Before we getting into the March Snowmadness would like to point out a potential for overnight some snow to pop up here is a quick look at the funny picture.









The euro has a bit more spread out but lower accumulations. Just be on the look out in the AM.

So the setup for Wed/Thur is looking real good let's take a look at the temps starting at the 850mb. As it looks like there will be some mixing mostly along the shore and especially out on the cape









Now I would like to point out the warmth with the low is offshore and this is really as close as the warmth comes at the 850 level, however moving down the air column to the 925mb we see the concern for mixing increase.









As it stands right now I'd put a potential mix line south of 84 and east of 91. However for much this may only be a very brief mix. Looking at the dew point temps you see they hover right around freezing, so it favors snow all the way.









And the 2m temps support snow hanging around when it lands









Before we take a look at the 500mb vorticity map lets have a look at the Low location and the Precipitable Water (PWAT). Not the location for when we take a look at the 500 Vort.








Now looking at the 500 we can see the negative tilt, the deepening, and it pretty much lined right up for New England.








You can see the energy just swinging right through








And boy is it projected close to the 40N/70W Benchmark 








However to far east and you are going to get a lot of mixing. You can see here the GFS group has it pretty close to the mark as well though favoring east








So that's mid week, lets take a quick look at the one a bit further out and late next weekend








Yikes that's a lot of energy....








Holy moley...to put that in perspective this is the first one wed/thur








Something to note on system for next Monday is the jet stream map, note the funneling of cold air from the north right on the North East as that system is ripping up the coast









So while that is a ways out and we have first to get through this mid week event keep that in the back of your mind and also log yet another about 16 days out...Very active march indeed. So to have a few laughs before we move on lets see the funny pictures on that one for next Monday. Little 48Hr snowfall total








HAHAHAHAHA so looking at a one week projected total of (a lot)








And finally here is a silly picture for just Wed/Thur, take all of these with a grain of salt. At least for now...









Keep an eye out next few days, I will try and update as things change. But it is looking like winter might just go out with a BANG!

And for a throw back to last year on March 16 Intersection of 44/202 and 167


----------



## NewEnglandSteelersFan

Yep, very similiar setup as last year in March. Here in Upper Valley NH, March 10 we had 8”, March 14 (Stella Storm) we had 16”, March 23 we had 5”, and April 1 we had 10”. 
Never count March out!!


----------



## AccuCon

Also that photo was March 14th 2017....

Oooops put in the wrong 48hr map on the last post








Here is some meteograms

CT
























MA






















RI









VT








NH








ME


----------



## PLOWMAN45

good i hope its alot


----------



## NewEnglandSteelersFan

Nah, I’m ready for the white stuff to go, and the green stuff to grow!


----------



## quigleysiding

NewEnglandSteelersFan said:


> Nah, I'm ready for the white stuff to go, and the green stuff to grow!


Yup me too Come on spring


----------



## AccuCon

Fully into March Madness now as the snow just keeps coming...

Wed/Thursday I like a good 8-10 of the heavy stuff for much of Southern New England with the exception of the coastal areas of MA/RI where heavy mixing with rain is going to cut down your totals significantly.

The mixing is really what is of most concern so let's have a look at some temps.

The 850mb








You can see the GFS has the 850 temps out on the cape a no go for the snow, however this is the warmest the 850 gets the entire event, thus far. The Euro has the center of the low a little bit further away so the 850mb temps are showing all snow for everyone at this point.

Looking down the column at the 925mb








Now we really start getting concerned about mixing working its way back towards central CT/MA. Again the Euro has the system a little further out thus pulling these temps easterly as well.

Let's check the 2m Dewpoint first with the GFS








And now the ECMWF








These are both the highest values during the event, thus far. You can see the Euro keeps more in the snow temp range but has the precip out as well, will show that later.

Before we dive into any animations or ptypes let's take a look at the 500mb and the energy associated with this system.

Here is the GFS and you can see it has everything we want. Deep Negative Axis and a lot of energy.








The ECMWF just has it looking perfect








And as it swings through you can see both have it formed nicely
















Now the question is where does it fall on the benchmark of 40 North 70 West, this will really decide how much of a snow impact we will see.

GFS Ensembles








Euro Ensemble Mean








You can see both very close!

So lets see what the GFS has for Ptype animated 6hrly








You can see it brings the mixing right inland towards central CT/MA. Now taking a look at winds with the MSLP you can see where that low is and it's relation to the 40/70








If the low tracks just a bit more east, it's snow for all.

Now let's look at the Euro Ptype 6hrly








And again lets look at winds and MSLP 








Will the track bring it across the 40/70 is the real question.

Looking out at the whole surface map we have this for the GFS








And this for the ECMWF








So keeping a close eye on the track to really nail down that mixing line.

Let's take a look at some funny pictures and the funniest of the all the NAM, mind you the NAM is always over done this early and is really most accurate within 24hrs.








Next let's look at the GFS








And then the ECMWF








Stay tuned and don't forget we have another one on the table after this....

Oh and it looks like spring is going to be late this year.


----------



## AC2717

wish it would make up its mind, but if is wants to come, bring it, we can handle it, and pay for our summer toys as well!! hehehehe


----------



## PLOWMAN45

i heard 8-12


----------



## AccuCon

And here we go. Looking like the track is pretty much right on the benchmark, however the GFS does not agree. Thinking the GFS has it way to far west and, has the storm going over land, I do not believe that to be the case. None the less it should be noted, so consider this noted!

Looking to shift start times a little later in the morning on Wed. 11am kick off time for Southern New England (SNE). While this storm is no super storm or even a blizzard it is going to produce significant snow fall and gusty winds in the 40mph range higher for some.

Let's check the 500mb here is tomorrow afternoon just before the intensification








Here you see that intensification Wednesday evening








Note the center location, looking to track right over 40 North 70 west








Here we can see the ECMWF tracking the storm right over the 40/70 mark









And as you can see the GFS has this tracked extremely west, which honestly seems a little out there. I understand the seas surface temps offshore are a bit warmer and have an effect but this just seems too far west.

Here is the GFS Ensembles








Even with that track western CT/MA and up New England would still be getting significant snowfall. The coastal areas of South East CT/RI/MA would lose out. Still do not think this track is valid, but with a storm this significant it is worth noting.

Looking at dewpoint just before the storm in the 20s New England wide








Taking a look at the winds we can see they will be blowing and it looks like the gusts will be with through out the storm once it gets really going, from the late afternoon through the night Wednesday into Thursday.









Before I toss up the funny pictures and some NWS stuff let's do a recap.

Significant Nor'easter is upon us, looking like a good 12+" for north of I84 extending through Mass. I see the 6" line coming down to I95 and I see south of that mixing, basically a couple inches of slush and a whole lot of high tide. Winds will blow, ocean will rise, and snow might come down upside down!

Now for the funnies

NAM just has much of SNE especially western CT/MA just getting blasted with snow









Thought the ECMWF is not much different








Even the Canadian is onboard








Canadian Hi-res even more blasting of SNE (most unlikely)








And the GFS even with it's far west track still has a decent snowfall, however this would involve much more mixing and really knock down the coastal numbers to nothing but rain, I do not believe this to be the case.









Some NWS infographics

























Should be sporting out there tomorrow!


----------



## unhcp

looking good! Bring it on!


----------



## Randall Ave

I think Bernie has a new periscope up.


----------



## PLOWMAN45

everyone thinking 8-12 for southern ct ?


----------



## aclawn




----------



## ScubaSteve728

seems like now it is trending colder and more east


----------



## aclawn

yup moving east


----------



## PLOWMAN45

what did you hear about Monday And Tuseday ?


----------



## aclawn




----------



## PLOWMAN45

they said the next would be bigger


----------



## aclawn

Next one could be OTS.There only one model on it right the GFS. you have to wait for the others to come into range. EURO had IT OTS.


----------



## PLOWMAN45

yeah i just heard keeping fingers crossed it comes here


----------



## AccuCon

Ok so we have a 3rd Nor'easter coming at us and this will be a quick overview of what to expect. If this storm shifts west the numbers go up everywhere as it is very close to the 40N/70W benchmark. A lot of this snow will fall overnight so the sun wont knock it down much at all. The early morning hours could see 2"/hr snowfall rates so that will just over power any sun.

Also looking like a possible ice storm next week and I will touch on that.

Temps look good for everything, here's the 850mb








Moving down to the 925mb








And then checking the dewpoint








They all stay below freezing throughout the event. Also the temps don't really climb that much after so this snow will stick around as we still have snow pack from the last Nor'easter.

Let's just see how close to the 40N/70W benchmark we are

The ECMWF








The GFS








Now if that pulls in more all the accumulation totals shift west.

You can really see how the increased effect would be if this track shifts west just a bit.








Here we have a 6hrly snap animation out 102hrs









Looking at the setup you can see the two pieces on the table








And of course this will have some gusty winds with it as well








Now let's look at some funny pictures

NAM








ECMWF








NWS Onset times and accumulation map

















Looking forward it looks like spring will be late indeed this year (might even have a white Easter).

CFS V2 out days 20-25








Euro out 32 days








Euro out 46 days








What snow out the end of the month? 5 day snow totals 








And we will end looking at next weeks possible ice storm








Will try and update later today if possible. But it doesn't seem like winter is letting up just yet even though we are in the homestretch.

Keep your stick on the ice!


----------



## AC2717

Thanks AccuCon!!!
Loving the Hockey reference


----------



## AccuCon

Add some quick ensemble items, some have us all getting blasted

First 25








Second 25








And looking at the low locations...You can see how close it is to the benchmark, if it waivers just a bit west, big snow everywhere
















You see a couple of the ensembles do see that possibility


----------



## quigleysiding

Ha ha have fun boys I knew we were going to get blasted as I am at bike week in fla 

Be safe guys


----------



## PLOWMAN45

so did the storm move cause i heard the totals got bumped for southern ct


----------



## AccuCon

Let's start with a quick update on the current event, then we will shift ahead to the threat next week, and the ridiculous cold projected for the beginning of spring.

The rapid refresh HRRR is pulling back on totals (most frequently updated model), however all other models still have similar snow totals.








For the other model runs look here: 
http://accuconstruct.com/images/weather/2018-0313/qpf/

However a snow band has set up over western CT & MA and might stick around for most of the day, you can see the banding and the lower accumulations will be between them.









Current GFS 6hr Low location









Moving ahead to next weeks threat, possibly yet another Nor'easter just in time to kick off spring!

Im going to show the 500mb Vorticity map and the equivalent track map to try and illustrate the system better

































Yikes! so we see the energy and we see the track but what about the temps throughout the air column, well be prepared to be wowed for peter rabbits about to freeze his balls off.

2m Lows on the 20th








Yes you saw that correct and yes that is in Fahrenheit!!!!

So moving up the air column 
925mb








850mb








You can see the system in those previous snaps. So cold air will be in place for this system if it in fact tracks up the coast.

Have a look where the control puts the Low, that's heading right within the benchmark.








And if it hits well here is an idea on the 24hr snow accumulation (just an idea)








Now this storm being a week plus out their is obviously some uncertainty on track.

The GFS has it Out To Sea (OTS)








The Canadian is inline with the euro control








But even the euro members are not in agreement yet, but looking at the mean there is general idea where it is headed








Looking at the jet you can see its prime pattern for another Nor'easter








Will be keeping an eye on this as time progresses.

Looking at more long range temps and it seems that much of April is going to be below normal and spring is going to have a delayed start this year.

We finish off March colder than usual








Mid April its looking to come around to near normal temps








Before the temps drop off yet again









I would say winter has made a comeback and plans to go out with a bang as it lingers along into spring.

I will leave you with the 32 day snow outlook








Maine this year has just gotten blasted with the snow cannon!

Stay classy New England


----------



## aclawn

A repeat of the last storm lowred:lowred:
http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/WXTYPE/loop25ne.html


----------



## PLOWMAN45

nothing stuck here in Norwalk


----------



## AC2717

Well that was fun, 22 inches in Watertown MA
back out tonight for removal
I guess bring on next week


----------



## AccuCon

So that was fun.

Recent storm totals









7 day total









Possible accumulation next 15 hrs as the current system still churns about









On to the next one, look out next week. just a quick overview what to expect.

Cold ahead








The cold will be in place leading up have a look at the projected 2m lows









The GFS has the Low all over like a shotgun 









The control has it a bit north and over land.









Euro members are more in agreement (note the 40N/70W benchmark and the cluster)









and the control has it right at the benchmark









Dew point looks good









the warmth though in the 850 troubles








The 925mb is below freezing however.

The ECMWF idea









The GFS idea









The way the pattern is set up I do not see this going out to sea, however there is still some time before the track gets nailed down which would provide the best idea on snow, rain, and amounts.

Looking at the 500mb The trough off the East coast should come around to matching that of the West, expect to see the models deepening this over the next few days. Now mind you this storm is going to come and go on the models but stay the course and follow the pattern.

















Finally have a look at the Euro control 32 day projected snow accumulation...HA








Good news is looks to finally warm up around the end of April








Whatcha gonna do when MARCH-mania runs wild on YOU?

Shovel on!


----------



## aclawn




----------



## AccuCon

And as promised here we go again!

So here it comes another Nor'easter, and would you call me crazy if I said there is possibilities of a 5th....Maybe even more..... We are in a very active pattern at the end of this winter so it's going to be an interesting ride until we get past Easter and into the first week of April, albeit still cold. The 36 and 42 day snowfall outlooks are pretty impressive considering it's the latter half of March.









The Euro ensembles mean is even more impressive.

And with much of the region sitting above normal snowfall (some places close to record setting) this could be one heck of a end to winter 2017/18.


















Just look at the temp departures the next 5 days








That is impressive!

More on that latter, let's have a look at incoming threat number 4. This one has a lot of moving pieces with it, like multiple lows.

Here you can see that illustrated as they are ejecting off the coast in the ensemble mean.








And here with the euro control we see it crossing right near that benchmark we always talk about 40N/70W








Models have been trending the track shifting north which would put more of SNE in the snow game. But it's looking pretty good so far. Make no mistake the Mid Atlantic is going to get hammered with this one and NJ is pretty much....well good luck.

Now you may be wondering, but it's so late in the year will it stick? Well, that is when you check the dew point temps and that is just what we shall do.








Holy ice balls batman! I'd say it surely will stick! The 2 meter dew point temp stays well below freeing thru out the entire event, so anything that does fall will stick and begin to accumulate.

Now let's take a look at the 500mb Vorticity, yup coming right for us.








Checking storm structure








Doesn't that look awfully familiar?.....

Since we are pretty used to these by now, this being the 4th one this month, I am going to skip a bunch of the other stuff we typically look at. I am doing this because I would like to get to some more long range items on the table and I kind of feel like I am beating a dead horse here repeating this stuff for the 4th time this month, ha!

Jumping right to the silly pictures let have a look at what the Euro and the NAM have to say.

ECMWF Operational with dynamic ratio








ECMWF Ensemble Control








NAM








And looking at the NCEP models probability of accumulation equal to or greater than 6" much of the SNE is above a 50% chance








I would not be surprised if we see a shift northward and thus a bit more of SNE in on the snow fun.

So let's look forward and see just what this pattern we are in still has for us possibly on the table.

So let's look at the temp departures even farther out than 5 days








That is some serious could and have a look at the EPS 46 day outlook








And with 15 day snow outlooks like this








You just have to be impressed, I mean it's the 19th of March!

So what's exactly on the table well let's see what the models are sniffing out.

Here we can see another system coming at us early next week








Could it be Nor'Easter number 5?








Then looking out around just before Easter weekend which in itself looks to be cold and stormy.

Is that a possible 6th!








The pattern seems to be well in place, now only if this happened last month!
And seeing those possibilities you can see how the 15 day and 46 day snow outlooks don't look all that crazy. Obviously we are looking at stuff 1 and 2 weeks out. But we saw this 4th incoming Nor'easter last Wednesday, and with the current pattern we are in its not all that nutty.

The ECMWF Ensembles certainly see it with the projected 46 day snow totals








Now looking this far out you cant really be certain of anything more than it's something to keep and eye out for, just like the last one. And on a more positive note it does look to warm up towards the end of April. So spring like weather will eventually get here!

I will try and post an update on the incoming Nor'easter when I get a chance or if anything significantly changes. As of now it seems to be on it's way for Southern New England, yet again!

Why am I still keeping my stick on the ice after St Pattys day?????


----------



## rjfetz1

Hey AccuCon - thanks for keeping us up to speed this winter......appreciate it.*newusflag*:gunsfiring::blob2::terribletowel::redbounce:


----------



## PLOWMAN45

13-14 inches hope it sticks


----------



## AccuCon

If everyone is wondering what all the excitement is building from if you take a look at the 500mb Vort on the euro you will see an absolute monster of a storm coming. This thing is wound tight and tucked. I was waiting for the 00z run on the ECMWF but probably going to crash and check it in the AM.

This thing is impressive have a look









































Now couple that with this Jet and my gosh....










Mother Nature is like oh first day of spring, hold my beer and watch this!


----------



## AccuCon

Ok I know some of the overnight runs may have you all a little worried because they wobbled, funny the GFS is now at where the others where yesterday. HAHAHA

There is still a way to go on this people, everyone wants to know instantly three months in advance how much snow, when, and where. That is just not possible! Weather is an extremely dynamic thing and forecasting snowfall is extremely complicated. It is not like rain when all everyone cares about is when is it going to start and when is it going to stop. So many factors play in to how much white stuff shows up and you can not just look at one piece. Looking at temperatures through out the troposphere, how much is going to fall as liquid, snow, sleet, and how much overall precipitation is going to occur.

That being said no one needs to know 5 days in advance there is going to be a foot of snow tomorrow, it makes no difference you should always be planning for the worse case anyways.

Now on to the weather!

I am going to start off with the MSLP snap that shows the 3 lows and the arctic high above.








Now you see that High is going to allow downward flowing cold air as our storm system (the lows) begin to spin off shore. These systems suck air in from all over and right above this one is a nice big chunk of cold dry air ripe for the picking. This is going to drop dew points way down, in fact lets take a look.

Here is 2 meter dew points Wednesday morning








That is ripe for accumulating snow!

Now let us take a look at the 500mb because, even though this model run wobbled a bit (noise) it is still very impressive.








Now you see that streak coming across just above our bowling ball, that is an area where a heavy band of snow may set up. But also just look at the power on this sucker, that is a very tightly wound cyclonic system. And it appears to have what is called a sting jet.

Now let's take a look at the jet accompanying this system








That jet is going to keep our little vort ball tucked in nicely to the coast spinning and deepening.

Now let's take a look at some sounding areas and some cross sections to just see how this snow will have no problem accumulating and just what type of snow it will be.

This is an older sound area but it checks out 








That dashed purple line is your snowflakes path to the ground. This is showing great dendritic growth. WTF is that you say, well that's big juicy snowflakes! here have a look:









Now looking back at that sounding you will notice how close the dew point and actual temps are throughout the column that means the are is super saturated.

Ok now let's look at a cross section thru CT








You can barely see the freezing line because it's down at the shore. So this is all indicating the snow will pile up quickly once it get's going.

If you watch the models they will waiver back and forth, however this is when interpolation comes in and being able to know what to toss out and ignore.

Have a look at the NCEP 








And here is the SREF showing much of SNE has a 50% or higher chance of getting 6" or more of snow








See even the GFS now things big snow








Notice that is a dynamic ration and not a 10:1, I know a lot of you get very hung up on these things!

I truly think the models are under doing the precipitation on these just by looking at the 500mb vort you can see this thing is a beast and that back edge man! I would say we are going to have one heck of a storm coming our way.

I was going to talk about teleconnections and take a look into the glass ball for what the future may bring. However this is enough for one morning post. I'll give you a hint though looks cold through most of April.


----------



## sectlandscaping

NWS switched from mix to heavy snow for me. Has it starting when the doors open. That sucks.


----------



## PLOWMAN45

noaa has me 11-15 did that change


----------



## AC2717

Boston area still only calling for around 8 maybe, why is this?


----------



## leigh

spring storms,gotta love them! no predictions from me!


----------



## PLOWMAN45

they say were gonna get heavier snow tonight who knows


----------



## NAHA

Anyone out there? I expected some chatter


----------



## NewEnglandSteelersFan

Here, sort of. A little ways away from you, Upper Valley NH. I check in on this thread and the Maine one. Had 2” of very wet snow on Monday, all froze up. Expecting 4-8” tonight and tomorrow. I am thinking we are getting 6”. My crystal ball tells me so....


----------



## Broncslefty7

orange CT has an inch.


----------



## cwren2472

NewEnglandSteelersFan said:


> . I am thinking we are getting 6". My crystal ball tells me so....


If you shake it and see snow falling inside, it is _not a _crystal ball


----------



## NEhomer

We got about 5 inches here in SW MA. Very heavy.


----------



## NewEnglandSteelersFan

Done. A quick 4 1/2” here in Upper Valley NH.
Thursday night - 3”
Friday morning - 1 1/2”


----------



## MSsnowplowing

11-15-18, Really that Sucked 

Long story short, instead of 5 trucks and sidewalk crew, just me after a few hours. 
22 fracking hours of plowing and shoveling 
Never in 12 years of plowing has anything like that happened

And I do believe that had to be a record, looking back since 2007 only a 3 inch storm on october 30th -(all gone the next day) and 3 storms only totaling a half a inch or less in november.


----------



## pkenn

Sorry for posting this in the weather section, i didnt see another regional area to post in.
If anyone has seen this truck please pm me.
Stolen fisher spreader in franklin ma.


----------



## AccuCon

I posted in the Connecticut weather thread, but really this thread makes more sense just because of how maps work in weather, you can only zoom in so much.

I'll be back again for another season of fun shortly...Perhaps if I have some time this weekend I'll do a long range outlook!

And yes this early stormed sucked we got little over 9" of straight up cement...Was silly...

In the meantime if anyone is looking for a tailgate spreader, this is a great one

https://hartford.craigslist.org/for/d/snowex-1075-pivot-pro-1200/6732915505.html


----------



## Broncslefty7

We have been using liquids heavily for about two years now, with great results. If anyone is interested in trying liquid de icer, or would like some more info on it, feel free to shoot me a message or give me a call at 860-666-1531.

Thank you

http://www.rizzosnow.com/maxmelt/

Photo Credit to Fireside and Accucon


----------



## NAHA

I got a new used plow and washed my trucks that should help with the snow right?


----------



## Randall Ave

NAHA said:


> I got a new used plow and washed my trucks that should help with the snow right?


We have been doing the same things here in Jersey.


----------



## cwren2472

60 degrees today in MA and I see pics of Tuscon, AZ blanketed in white


----------



## Masssnowfighter

NAHA said:


> I got a new used plow and washed my trucks that should help with the snow right?


Should of washed your truck and sold your plow if you are trying to get it to snow


----------



## NAHA

I do have an extra plow I could sell


----------



## BUFF

Randall Ave said:


> We have been doing the same things here in Jersey.


Any luck....


----------



## Randall Ave

BUFF said:


> Any luck....


Nope, didn't get any, outside, or inside the house.


----------



## Masssnowfighter

NAHA said:


> I do have an extra plow I could sell


If you have a snowmobile to sell, that will work as well and will pretty much guarantee a record breaking winter


----------



## NAHA

I wanna buy a snowmobile but that seems like a great way to get zero snow


----------



## Broncslefty7

This weather sucks............

We hit 100” of rain for 2018.....


----------



## TJS

Now New Mexico got 10" plus. This is nuts.


----------



## mjlawncare

Maybe a salt run tonight then maybe something next week this winter is off to a very slow start


----------



## Broncslefty7

im loaded with salt and liquid ready for tonight, ill probably go treat around 11:00


----------



## AC2717




----------



## Cosmic Charlie

Last slow start of snow was 2015 and later we got 11' in eastern Mass


----------



## Broncslefty7

I’d take 11 feet
This winter......


----------



## NAHA

Was just on 495 93 area 30 and rain


----------



## AC2717

hearing rumors about this weekend?????????


----------



## NewEnglandSteelersFan

Yep, hearing rumors as well. One report is 1-3 Sat night, 5-8 Sunday, and leftovers 1-3 Sun night.


----------



## AccuCon

Ok quick preliminary for the up coming event this weekend....It's still way off, but yes something will happen...As it stands now its a northern New England event...A lot of time for that to change, so lets take a look...

Lets check out this monster (it's far to west right now for a New England smasher)








Now over the years you know what the hammer looks like, this isn't it...yet....

And where is that negative tilt on the upper trough?????








Definitely a lot of energy coming in...But note the lower piece coming in hooking up off the gulf is not in alignment....Again this system isn't even on the shores of California yet, so...(things will change)

The 850 temps though are in place, until she arrives, as seen here








However








Yikes that's no beuno for snow

Again this is way way way out....So if everything tracks and stays as it lets see what Ptype looks like

















Blasphemy!!!









Oh she's gonna be fun...get the salt ready....Southern New England going to be pushing concrete at this point....Grrrrrrr

And the bakers powder finish









Again this is way out there...Temps in the troposphere are looking rough, which is going to mess with us! This is all up for change but it looks like it's bringing the warmth from the south on up with it, causing a mess-a-palooza

Don't forget about the incoming threat on Thursday....here comes winter in the south boys and girls...Then after this ***** leaves Sunday evening, brace for the cold injection...










So lets Tuesday quarterback this...

Something is going to happen this weekend, it's going to be a mess...I suggest getting the salt ready if you live south of the mass pike....The ground is froze up good though, the precip is coming, its going to be a mess...the north is lined up to get hammered! this is a big system no doubt, it's on everyone's radar and everything is going to freeze right up post storm, solid....better get the calcium chloride out!

Here comes winter in the south, of New England, *****achos!

Funny picture








That's going to change.

Remember some fun comes Thursday night into Friday morning first!!! Stay tuned


----------



## AC2717

Thank you AccuCon, keep us posted!!! Looks like a mess event with drawn out salting and frozen equipment, no tune up storm this year for us i guess


----------



## abbe

Looking for a contractor in Mansfield Ma capable of taking on a full service 1 acre commercial account. If anyone is interested and capable please shoot me a PM.


----------



## Pa Plowman

Hi Guys

Looking for some info regarding where to purchase some 50lb Bags of Halite after I drop off a Load of my Product in the Danvers, Ma area.....seeing that I won't be far from @AC2717

Only looking for the Salt to keep the F-250 on the Road on the way back to Pa, hopefully the Salt gets used yet this Season


----------



## NAHA

I know we still have some winter left but not looking so good


----------



## leigh

NAHA said:


> I know we still have some winter left but not looking so good


 Come on down to sw ct,then you'll see some real crying!


----------



## Broncslefty7

yeah this years weather pattern sucks for snow.

theres always next year.....


----------



## leigh

Broncslefty7 said:


> yeah this years weather pattern sucks for snow.
> 
> theres always next year.....


 I don't have many left ! I'm waiting for a stellar year,then I bail out of the snow game in april. Looks like the master plan is on hold. All you north of 84 guys have fun tonight!


----------



## Broncslefty7

3.5" in Hartford, then two dusting from these squalls, they weren't kidding when they said white out conditions.....

And we dive back down to 0 again after snow, salt is useless, but max melt liquid is working well.


----------



## Broncslefty7

We got some interesting squalls last night, each one dropped about a half inch


----------



## fireside

Broncslefty7 said:


> We got some interesting squalls last night, each one dropped about a half inch
> 
> View attachment 189572


Again you suck!!!


----------



## Broncslefty7

fireside said:


> Again you suck!!!


i requested snow monsters. no one showed.

i think i am going to webb tonight to move piles....


----------



## fireside

Can’t let them to close to a brand new machine. They may get visions of greater things


----------



## Broncslefty7

i should pick up the 70's 950 and bring it there.... bring them to come try out my "new to me loader" LOL.


----------



## fireside

See now your talking. I bet the batteries are still good


----------



## Broncslefty7

I’m just waiting to hear back from the property owner, but it sounds like a go.


----------



## fireside

You need to follow ct state law. You just can’t take it. It falls under dmv. I almost had a chipper but at last minute owner came to claim it.


----------



## Broncslefty7

This falls under eviction laws, eviction was 6
Months ago, and I’m pretty sure with eviction abandonement, it’s also 6 months


----------



## fireside

nope 45 days with letter but you need to file paperwork with DMV


----------



## Broncslefty7

Property owner is looking into it. It’s a government funded property so, I think it may be a little different. Most of the tenants have something to do with the Hartford school system


----------



## Masssnowfighter

Broncslefty7 said:


> i should pick up the 70's 950 and bring it there.... bring them to come try out my "new to me loader" LOL.


Where is this abandoned Cat 950? IMO that is the best loader model ever made. They are so simple to work on and you can keep them running with bubble gum and duct tape. If you can get it for free or even a few thousand that would be a homerun for you. I have a 72 950 and a 77 966c and they are the workhorses of my fleet. New machines aren't built anywhere near as tuff those old girls. I bet 40 years from now that Cat 950 will still be running and your new Case will already have been melted down for scrap


----------



## Broncslefty7

Masssnowfighter said:


> Where is this abandoned Cat 950? IMO that is the best loader model ever made. They are so simple to work on and you can keep them running with bubble gum and duct tape. If you can get it for free or even a few thousand that would be a homerun for you. I have a 72 950 and a 77 966c and they are the workhorses of my fleet. New machines aren't built anywhere near as tuff those old girls. I bet 40 years from now that Cat 950 will still be running and your new Case will already have been melted down for scrap


Case is rented. It's in Hartford, I'm in conversation with the property owner. We'll see it needs some work but I have no clue how much yet.


----------



## fireside

Hey that’s my new to me loader!!
Don’t get any ideas it will make a nice snow monster mschiney


----------



## Masssnowfighter

You sure that’s a cat? Looks like a Trojan 1900


----------



## Broncslefty7

There’s no labels on it, but it matches CAT pictures pretty damn close


----------



## Broncslefty7

Trojan corner windows are straight, CATs where
More triangular.


----------



## Masssnowfighter

Broncslefty7 said:


> Trojan corner windows are straight, CATs where
> More triangular.


I'm guessing Trojan or a Yale. Cat doors don't go all the way to the floor. Take a pic of the inside of the cab, that will be the dead giveaway there. There will be a Cat logo in the middle of steering will if it is.


----------



## Masssnowfighter




----------



## Masssnowfighter

73 Trojan 2000 looks like a dead match to yours


----------



## Evil Diesel

Masssnowfighter said:


> 73 Trojan 2000 looks like a dead match to yours
> View attachment 189669


I agree!


----------



## fireside

Yup you guys are correct looking closer it says 2000 on the very rear panel.


----------



## Broncslefty7

Hmmm I think your right. Still a decent grab?


----------



## leigh

I have a lowboy, key ring filled with equipment keys , a jump box, hot start additive. Just need gps coordinates. I'm not tired,ready for 2 am road trip.


----------



## Masssnowfighter

Broncslefty7 said:


> Hmmm I think your right. Still a decent grab?


Not sure never ran a Trojan. If it's free it's a good grab. Getting parts will be problematic. I think most of them have Detroit's so the thing would be a screaming demon


----------



## Broncslefty7

Masssnowfighter said:


> Not sure never ran a Trojan. If it's free it's a good grab. Getting parts will be problematic. I think most of them have Detroit's so the thing would be a screaming demon


Sounds like fun....


----------



## fireside

leigh said:


> I have a lowboy, key ring filled with equipment keys , a jump box, hot start additive. Just need gps coordinates. I'm not tired,ready for 2 am road trip.


You have a lowboy?!? Hmmmmm


----------



## leigh

fireside said:


> You have a lowboy?!? Hmmmmm


 Fibbed a little for the great loader heist daydream! How about I have "access to a lowboy" lol Not sure how far I'd get with that loader on my 15k kaufman !


----------



## Broncslefty7

its not a heist if you get the green light..... i could probably drive it to my shop if it was snowing, the cops in hartford dont say a word as long as you have a snow plow and flashing lights on.


----------



## leigh

Broncslefty7 said:


> its not a heist if you get the green light..... i could probably drive it to my shop if it was snowing, the cops in hartford dont say a word as long as you have a snow plow and flashing lights on.


 And if it makes it the whole way you know you've got a keeper!


----------



## Broncslefty7

HA!, if it doesnt, its not like anyone is going to be able to "heist it", in that neighborhood they heist honda civics and mazdas....


----------



## fireside

Give credit batteries are worth tons in scrap along with the fuel. I hope you put fuel in it I would hate to run out on a hill.


----------



## AC2717

what are people seeing for Tuesday through Wednesday?


----------



## AC2717

Pa Plowman said:


> Hi Guys
> 
> Looking for some info regarding where to purchase some 50lb Bags of Halite after I drop off a Load of my Product in the Danvers, Ma area.....seeing that I won't be far from @AC2717
> 
> Only looking for the Salt to keep the F-250 on the Road on the way back to Pa, hopefully the Salt gets used yet this Season


Sorry I just saw this now, you all set?


----------



## Pa Plowman

AC2717 said:


> Sorry I just saw this now, you all set?


I delivered up there early on the 6th, since I couldn't make any connections I went to the Home Depot there off of Endicott St and checked out the Bagged Halite.....Came back empty at that price lol

Be safe in the Storm Wednesday/ Thursday and thanx for getting back to me


----------



## AccuCon

Hey better late then never right....So here we go with a quick update...

Late Saturday night through Tuesday morning watch out New England, while this is not a large storm it will provide a mix of precipitation types through out and with that comes ice.








Here we have the ptype accumulation snaps








And as you can see from the probability snow map its not a big storm by even Maine standards. However it will bring mixed precip types New England wide and will linger around from late Saturday night through Tuesday depending on your location (remember for all of New England)








Looking forward to march the MJO is heading into phase 2/3 by the looks of it and that should bring a cold March nationwide...








And a look at the corresponding template








Thus having a look at the weeklies and the outlook for the next 32days this seems to jive

Temp Anomaly outlook








Snow possibility outlook









Some light reading on the MJO and it's importance to the weather in North America: https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/what-mjo-and-why-do-we-care


----------



## PLOWMAN45

day 32 for some snow would be march 2 ?


----------



## AccuCon

No that was a weekly run, it started on the 21st....March has a interesting beginning, I will try to post an update soon. Been busy rebuilding a plow....fun times

We have a couple shots over next couple weeks with the biggest possibility over a week out...

Maine, New Hampshire, and Vermont this season have been getting hammered though...


----------



## AC2717

whats the good word on this one?


----------



## PLOWMAN45

i don't see it snowing


----------



## AC2717

anyone, anyone, Bueller?? Bueller?


----------



## unhcp

AC2717 said:


> anyone, anyone, Bueller?? Bueller?


snow saturday

snow/mix monday


----------



## PLOWMAN45

i just saw 6-12 for Sunday into Monday


----------



## AccuCon

March is roaring.... With the first storm behind us and the next one upon us lets take a look at the imminent threat and the ones that loom after.

But first lets take a look and see how we are doing for winter snowfall to date.









As you see many areas such as inland CT are right at average snowfall, while some areas like Caribou Maine are at almost record levels, and areas along the shore are all below normal. Overall looks like it's been an average winter, finally. Keep in mind the past few winters for many in New England have been well above average. I know it's tough to comprehend this, because we are all so busy and have so much on our minds we forget the milk at the grocery store while standing in the dairy aisle. So how could we honestly remember the weather last month or last season. Luckily we keep notes!

I digress moving along lets see what is in store for tonight into Monday. it looks like upon onset there might be some rain possible, however the dew points are all below freezing the duration of this event.








As you can see in this "SimDar" we are looking at hour or so of mixing upon onset.

The 2 meter dew points are all below freezing through out the event








The 850mb temps are also below freezing throughout the event, however they are not super cold so this will not be fluffy snow and some mixing of sleet is defiantly possible. You will be seeing some mixing along the South East tip of Southern New England








Now following this storm we have some very cold temps coming in and we will zoom out and talk about these later but for now look at this snap on Tuesday








I mean the temp anomaly through Thursday are well below average








Going to be a very cold week.

So before we get to the funny pictures for the snowfall coming lets take a look at the upcoming weeks and month ahead for both next storms, temps, and snowfall outlook for March.

First we have another storm to keep and eye out for next weekend there may be a little something around mid week as well, but here is whats on the radar for next weekend








Not the nicest set up but definitely will need to keep an eye out.

March is looking to shape up just as predicted by the MJO as a cold month, here is the 32 day temp anomaly outlook








Even right into April








As usual the ground hog is not a trust worthy weather prediction tool and we should stick to using science.

The 32 day snow outlook








March kicking ass! Much like it did last year.

Now for what everyone wants to see the funny pictures for tonight's event......drum roll please (fast tempo)

The GFS (just posting it for posterity, its pretty garbage)








The Canadian HRDPS








The Canadian RGEM








The NAM








The Euro









Most models sans the GFS seem to be in agreement.

Stay frosty out there it's going to be a wild ride this March.

*Edit: Onset of storm looks between 6-9PM Sunday starting Southwest CT heading Northeast


----------



## PLOWMAN45

about time we make for lost time here


----------



## AC2717

I think we are done unfortunately for the season


----------



## PLOWMAN45

i need one more good one


----------



## AC2717

wow all quiet on this storm here?


----------



## PLOWMAN45

starting to stick on the grass


----------



## Broncslefty7

Been plowing all night and doing emergency calls for properties where no one showed up.


----------



## MSsnowplowing

Broncslefty7 said:


> Been plowing all night and doing emergency calls for properties where no one showed up.


Did you do the target store?


----------



## quigleysiding

Nothing all night now just dropped a quick inch here on the coast big flakes adding up quick


----------



## Broncslefty7

MSsnowplowing said:


> Did you do the target store?


No, KBS wanted to pay 1200 for the service net 45, and they want to pay 20k for the season.....

how can they pay without my COI and W9?


----------



## fireside

Broncslefty7 said:


> No, KBS wanted to pay 1200 for the service net 45, and they want to pay 20k for the season.....
> 
> how can they pay without my COI and W9?


Who said anything about paying you!


----------



## Embalmer

Had an easy 16+ inches in methuen thus far. Really need to stop dragging feet and find a deal for a Fisher plow for my new 19 f250....


----------



## MSsnowplowing

Broncslefty7 said:


> No, KBS wanted to pay 1200 for the service net 45, and they want to pay 20k for the season.....
> 
> how can they pay without my COI and W9?


LOL, I got the same quote from another national for target and lowes. 
I sent a counter offer of $6,500 for emergency plowing and $60,000 for the season. Never heard back.


----------



## AC2717

is there something brewing for next tuesday/wednesday???


----------



## leigh

AC2717 said:


> is there something brewing for next tuesday/wednesday???


 Yes,rain snow 40 deg for my area,less than an inch.


----------



## AC2717

I was talking about next Tuesday Wednesday
The 17th-18th


----------



## leigh

AC2717 said:


> I was talking about next Tuesday Wednesday
> The 17th-18th


 So was I sadly ! 
*Tuesday 17*
A 50 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 42.


----------



## AccuCon

Merry Christmas all!

It's been a very busy kick off to winter and hopefully I can make these updates more regular. So lets take a look at an upcoming event you may have noticed this morning on your weather apps (been tracking it since Monday myself).

Please bare with on the images I am currently having an issue with my server and am hosting these on a free site so, they may go away without notice.

Lets just dive right in with an overview of the system in question and the first animation. This is Saturday thru Sunday:








Now lets look at the piece heading our way on Monday








So that being Monday midnight Sunday you see the low has broken off and is around the western great lake regions however the moisture is heading our way.

And by mid day Monday we are just all in the precipitation:









But that's all great you say, what about the temps man? Well that is where the problems come in to play. Lets first look at the 850mb (Recall this is where the weather is made, at approximately 5,000 feet) and a comparison on previous model runs showing a trend towards colder air staying more south:









Now these temps do not support freezing precip in the troposphere, however what about the 2m surface temps you ask?....well lets have a look:








They hover right around freezing for the most part thus giving us a high likely hood of freezing rain!

Looking at another model run comparison (freezing rain totals) you see this trend is not in a nice way:









But looking at the 850mb temps more we see that it does in fact get into the freezing range and thus some precip may fall in the form of sleet and snow.








This being Monday morning around 10AM now the temps rise briefly before dropping back down into the snow zone by 7PM on Monday and continue to drop thru Tuesday occasionally ping ponging above and below freezing.

So lets take a look at the MSLP 6hr QPF w/ P-Type animated and zoomed in on New England:








What a mess!

Now for the funny picture and lets do a comparison so we can further reinforce the trend towards colder and more snow/ice








*note the newest model run is always on the left*

So there we have it an incoming ice storm from Monday into Tuesday morning as we exit 2019 and begin a new year! What a December for the books it has been. Most areas are running at 15-20" of snowfall total above average and temps have been below average for the past 2.5 months or so. I know you wont here that in the mainstream, all you will hear is the last 5 days of warmth and how your farts are causing the issue!

Here is the total snowfall of the season








So before we wrap this up lets take a look at the long term temp outlook (again take this with a grain of salt)

30 Day CFSv2 2mAnom








46 Day ECMWF 









Stay tuned folks!


----------



## fireside

Ok can we have a lonely costal forecast LOL


----------



## PLOWMAN45

So is the coast gonna start getting snow ?


----------



## Broncslefty7

No just Hartford and north. Sean send all your stuff to my lots.


----------



## PLOWMAN45

I follow eweather on Facebook it look like things might turn around for us


----------



## AccuCon

Some quick model run trend comparisons

Frz Rain









Sleet









Snow









Quick Zoom out for the region 
























Finally a run to run temp change









The GEM is also seeing the freezing rain


----------



## AC2717

would love a biggin before end of year!


----------



## AC2717

looks like maybe something for this Saturday the 18th???


----------



## fireside

Nope going to be another teaser snow than rain.


----------



## PLOWMAN45

Its way to early 5 days


----------



## FordFisherman

Can't get an all snow event this year...ugh..


----------



## Broncslefty7

Or the past two years....


----------



## PLOWMAN45

i guess its 1-3 unless it changes


----------



## Broncslefty7

All rain, ask Accucon all rain.


----------



## AC2717

All this technology, just leading to less knowledgeable weather people


----------



## PLOWMAN45

they just said 3-6


----------



## fireside

Embalmer said:


> Had an easy 16+ inches in methuen thus far. Really need to stop dragging feet and find a deal for a Fisher plow for my new 19 f250....


----------



## AccuCon

Get some things started off with, what I feel are, some handy links.

*Winter outlook 2020*
https://www.weatherbell.com/winter-2020-update
*Free GFS with sounding capability*
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/
*NWS Eastern Region Twitter feed*
https://twitter.com/NWSEastern
*NWS Eastern Region Facebook*
https://www.facebook.com/NWSEastern
*NWS Boston Office Facebook*
https://www.facebook.com/NWSBoston
*NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center*
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/


----------



## aclawn




----------



## AC2717

What's on the horizon for mid week??


----------



## Avalanche 2500

AC2717 said:


> What's on the horizon for mid week??


Snow......Wed.5-8" ???


----------



## fireside

Stop weather guessing so EARLY! Let’s see what happens over next few days. Boy I got excited looking last night


----------



## PLOWMAN45

you should follow eweather on twitter


----------



## quigleysiding

Avalanche 2500 said:


> Snow......Wed.5-8" ???


Really ?


----------



## fireside

quigleysiding said:


> Really ?


----------



## fireside

Yup, It could be way over that magical number too


----------



## PLOWMAN45

saw some good model numbers for I-95


----------



## AccuCon

We got two threats one Monday afternoon into evening and then another Wednesday.

I'm currently having technical difficulties so here is a shot of the GFS for Monday and then again Wed/Thur


----------



## PLOWMAN45

23 inches is good


----------



## quigleysiding

PLOWMAN45 said:


> 23 inches is good


No its not


----------



## fireside

If you read the top that’s 10-1 ratio so it will be wetter so 23” is not good at all. I love the 3.4” storms nice quick and easy. Anything over 7” starts to be work.


----------



## PLOWMAN45

Ok i havent seen good snow in while i will take it


----------



## fireside

Well looking at models still now holding firm with a really big event. Based on last years models handling of events it will be coastal insider so rain or lots of mixing.

Moving the skidsteer out this morning my son want to get out the skidsteer snowblower because he says we will need it


----------



## aclawn

Blizzard!!


----------



## cwren2472

WPRI news are a bunch of wusses who still won't commit to any snowfall totals 2 days before the storm.


----------



## Randall Ave

cwren2472 said:


> WPRI news are a bunch of wusses who still won't commit to any snowfall totals 2 days before the storm.


----------



## PLOWMAN45

aclawn said:


> Blizzard!!


For the I-95 you think ? Whats the start time


----------



## AccuCon

Here we go real quick (still got some technical diff going on)

ECMWF









Animated P-Type form 1PM Wed to 7 PM Thursday









Stay frosty bichachos

*********EDIT*******

Let's really get the buzz going here is the ECMWF set to the Kuchera Ratio for out put which take into account temperatures through out the air column....










and here is a temp snap shot for Thursday morning at 2meter


----------



## PLOWMAN45

is that gonna be heavy wet stuff


----------



## fireside

I’m thinking first few inches well be but after that dry


----------



## sectlandscaping

thats not good either but better then cement.


----------



## quigleysiding

nooo .I want easy 4 inch storms .lowred::gunsfiring:


----------



## fireside

Yea nice 3.3” storm for a shake down event. But nope rumors of 20” or so


----------



## PLOWMAN45

well how many time did you plow last year


----------



## quigleysiding

Still have roofs and siding jobs to do .Way to early to get them buried. But whatever .


----------



## AC2717

thank you for the update, look forward to today's and tomorrow's


----------



## logdon17

GFS is getting more agressive:










The latest Euro model for comparison:










Good news at this point is most of us are going to see plowable snow, and nothing less than 6 to 8 inches. Granted these model runs are changing day over day so who know what tomorrow brings...


----------



## sectlandscaping

who killed the weather guy


----------



## PLOWMAN45

sectlandscaping said:


> who killed the weather guy


is it not snowing there ?


----------



## sectlandscaping

Yeah but they flip flopped more then a politician


----------



## AC2717

Thank god it was fluff in my area


----------



## aclawn




----------



## AccuCon

So the first major storm of the 2020-2021 season is behind us! Let's start with a recap since we set some records on that one!



And the overall snow totals for the eastern region



Here is the snowfall totals to date for the season (as of December 19th)



So what do we have going forward, quite a lot actually with the most current threat being over the Christmas holiday this week. While it will be a primarily rain event we can not rule out any wet heavy snow on the back and. This is due to the possibility of the Anafront conditions as the frontal system moves in and the air rises on the cold side.

Here is a info-graphic on the difference between an Anafront and a Katafront



Ok so what does that all mean well lets start diving into the model and take a look at the system.

Here we have the 500mb Vorticity map on the GFS at 7PM Thursday



It is definitly a large system but with out the blocking to hold the cold air in place she is going to bring up the warm air along the front and thustly we are going to see a primarily rain event. And a lot of it.

Here we have total possible precipitation on the ECMWF



Now the tricky part is the backside of this front and it might just be a wet snowy finish, lets look at the 850mb temp as the frontal system passes thru Southern New England



That is the numbers you want to see for snow, also look how defined that frontal boundry is, but will there be any precip left?????

The GFS is a little more bullish on it then the ECMWF as seen here in a MSLP P-Type snap

GFS


ECMWF


Overall its not looking good other than temps drop as the front moves by and any remaining precip falling or on the ground is going to freeze.

2m Temp snap at 7PM Friday



Overall I don't believe this will be a plowing event however it might require salting on the back-end for the Friday evening and Saturday morning. we are looking at almost 1.5" of rain New England wide with higher amounts in certain areas with an already existing snow-pack drainage should be a concern and again the post freeze up.

Lets look a little farther forward though and see what is to come for we might be getting set up for a decent run in the weeks ahead. I am going to be rather brief on this for I have run out of time, dealing with a bunch of technical difficulties this morning that are in the process of being worked out. So lets check storm possibilities and an overall out look for projected snow and temps.

Here is are next incoming low for next Monday night/Tuesday (December 28/29) this one looks interesting the models have it hanging around a bit like its drunk and cant find the door



And here we have some snow outlooks next 30ish days

GFS


ECMWF


And a temp anomaly from the CFSv2


So snow and cold ahead it looks. I will try and get some time to go into more detail on the longer range ideas with a look at oscillations and what not seeing how the global setup looks and if it is favorable for wintry shenanigans!

Until then stay frosty my friends and Merry Christmas, Happy Hanukkah, Kwanzaa and whatever holiday you may celebrate this time of year!


----------



## AccuCon

Keep that eye out for Christmas storm updates the models are going back and fourth on the back-end snow/ice. Again because of the Anafront!


----------



## fireside

No way snow on Xmas weather apps says rsin. That just the word on the playground I don’t have any apps let alone weather ones


----------



## AccuCon

Ya didn't read did ya....talked about icing


----------



## fireside

Just learning how to read distance learn is tough


----------



## AccuCon

Sunday Monday Winter Fun Day!

Before we get into the threat for this coming Sunday night into Monday morning let's take a look at 2020s precipitation totals and a bit of history in weather on this day.

Lets take a quick look at how dry it was for 2020 for the Northeast, as if the year couldn't have been any worse.

As seen the departure from avg was quite a bit. Hopefully we can make up for some of that this winter with a good snow pack...we shall see!


















Now a step into Mister Peabody's Wayback Machine and we have a look at Janurary 2, 1987....









Ok lets move into the good stuff the impending storm coming Sunday overnight into Monday mid morning lets first take a look at the track










Now lets take a look at the temps in the 850mb during as the system comes thru








As you can see the temps are in the snow zone (well the shore is barely) throughout the time frame.

And by 10AM monday the system has moved along








However there will be some wind gusts on the backside of this Monday afternoon.








And the 2m temp snap at 10AM monday post the precipitation is just getting above freezing.









So what does this all mean. It means some snow overnight Sunday into Monday that will effect the Monday morning commute. Let's take a look at some funny pictures

ECMWF








NAM








Canadian








And the GFS








I don't believe the GFS at all....

NWS Boston office








So keep be prepared we got a bit of winter coming back in. Now lets take a quick look at what to expect going forward this season and what the Euro weeklies, GFS extended and the CFSv2 have in mind.

Start with the 32 day projected snowfall

GFS Continental US









ECMWF









CFSv2 temp anomaly Feb









March








Yikes that's looking cold and the trend continues out into spring so far...

Stay Frosty and Happy New Year!


----------



## FordFisherman

Nice write up- Thanks and Happy New Year


----------



## AccuCon

Polar vortex.......

Yup some things are going on up at the north pole and a sudden stratospheric warming event is occurring. Which could lead to the polar vortex splitting apart and causing all sorts of fun in the weeks+ ahead.

But before we get into that lets just recap real quick on last storm, Some of the higher elevations in the north western portion of CT did in fact get 3.5" of fresh snow so I am pretty happy with my last overview. If it didn't fit your dreams I just don't know what to say, ha.

Now keep in mind I'm really looking at pinpoint weather for my plowing area and as a bonus I'm sharing with you all, so It may waiver from time to time on your exact location but you will hopefully get a general idea of what to expect.

Moving along lets take a look at the coming week and month. First off as of now there is really nothing on the radar for Southern New England in regards to precip for the remainder of this week. However, it will feel more like winter especially towards the end of the week, albeit some highs might reach 40 this week.

Lets take a look at 2m snaps over the next few days and as you see come end of the week cold is setting in.










And here we have the GFS Extended 7 day snowfall projections:









Now with the possible splitting of the polar vortex and its impact on our weather we may see some slower moving systems in the weeks ahead which if things pan out could lead to larger snowfalls.

Taking a look at the 500mb height anomaly map you can see how the cold and stormy conditions are looking ripe










And the jet stream is starting to get set up for a direct hit around mid month








You can really see the cold coming by the end of the month according to the CFSv2








Now there are three systems coming our way over the first half of this month as of now. The first two look to track south and Out To Sea (OTS) however the second with the idea of the jet stream shaping up could be a direct hit.

The GFS Ensemble certainly sees some snow the next 30days:









Here we have the first system tracking south on the 9th:









And here we have the second system tracking south again on the 12th









And then third times the charm a direct hit around the 15th









Certainly a lot going on the next few weeks however for the most part the next 7 days look clear yet chilly.

Stay frosty friends!


----------



## PLOWMAN45

I just saw Bernie Rayno say the sane thing


----------



## AccuCon

Features so many features.....10 days ahead should be interesting and chilly, but first lets talk about where we are at and whats coming Tuesday.

Believe it or not we are actually running about average for total snowfall to date in many areas here is the latest tallies:










Now as we are moving out of January it is about to get much colder and looking like a little winter mischievous for us.

So lets look at the incoming system for Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

Here you see the Low taking shape out in the Atlantic around 7PM Tuesday (it will have already started before then) 









Lets take a look at temps here we have the 2 meter surface temps at 4pm tues. at the onset of precip:








And it only trends colder until about 10AM wed.

Now lets look at the 850mb temps (approx 4800' in elevation where the weather happens) I will animate this one during the course of the event for your viewing pleasure:









That's in the snow making zone for the duration with the exception of the far southwest portion of CT.

So we may have a touch of mixing down near the Danbury municipal airport. Speaking of airports lets take a quick look at some meteograms

Bradley:








Brainard:








Danbury:








Now in a side bar conversation some keep talking about rain, freezing rain, and mixed precip. I dont really see much widespread mixing going on for most however there seems to be a chance for a bit along the immediate shoreline and, again, the far southwest corner of CT. I did look far and wide on all models to try and find some and low and behold I did on the NAM 3km (high res):








Sleet








Now to see why that is showing up lets look at the NAM 3km 850mb temps:








And there you have it the reason behind the pretty picture the temps in the 850mb on the NAM 3km (the only one by the way) dip above freezing for a moment.

Also surface temps in the southwest corner of CT will be ponging around freezing at onset of the event.

So I am still convinced we will not be seeing much mixing through out the event or Southern New England.

Start time looks to be around 4/5pm with a finish around day break Wednesday. now keep in mind that's a first to last flake time frame I'm talking about. So lets segue right into the pretty pictures.

ECMWF:









Now lets do a quick model run comparison from current (on left) to one prior (on the right):









The trend for SNE is on the uptick for snow totals it seems.

Now lets take a look at some other models and see how they are treating the incoming system for totals.

GFS:









Canadian:









NAM 3km (its still a bit early to start really using this model)









And we can look at a worse case with the Kuchera ratio on the ECMWF:









So before we move along to the coming temp drops and more winter fun lets do a quick recap on the incoming system.

Start time say between 4/5pm +/- hr and going to day break, with much of SNE seeing 2-3" and little to no mixing with the exception of the immediate shoreline and possibly southwest corner of CT. Wind does not seem to be a factor in this system as seen here in 10m gusts:


----------



## AccuCon

So now we have that covered lets take a look at what the magic ball has in store for us coming next. First lets check out the temps anomaly coming this weekend.









Yikes! lets look at a 2m snap on Friday morning around 7AM:









Should be quite refreshing!

We have another system on the radar for later in the week but it's nothing of major concern. However looking a little further ahead we see the chance for something bigger around the 2nd of February.










The euro is certainly sniffing, now keep in mind this is way out








Definitely need to keep an eye on that!

Looking at the longer range stuff we see the CFSv2 has us cold for the first start of Feb









And it keeps it around through the month:









Projected 32 day snowfall








The control group really hits it hard








The GFS is seeing it too








After last season looks like we might actually have something to talk about this February, how exciting!

And for a final recap for Tuesdays storm I'll leave you with the NWS Boston office accumulation range and onset times:
















Boy that was a lot of information, maybe. I don't know...Sometimes a guy gets carried away with the weather, well hopefully not then a guy would be in a tornado.....HA

Stay frosty friends!

***Oh and I'm trying something new and set up a SNEwX page on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/SNEXY

It will not be as detailed as this or the email letter but I'll drop stuff a little more frequently.***


----------



## fireside

Wow very nice update. I’m still thinking mixing and freezing rain. For us low landers


----------



## AccuCon

Oh boy, it's getting exciting. Winter is coming around for us it seems. But before we get into next week's shenanigans let's first take a look at storm totals, this weekend's temps, and a broken record!

RI set a new daily snowfall record with the most recent event:









The storm totals where pretty much in line with the previous forecast:








Now lets look at the big chill coming this weekend lets start off with a 7AM 2m temp shot:








Saturday at 7AM:








Sunday at 7AM:








Monday 7AM:








So it's going to be chilly for the next few days, keep in mind wind chills are going to make these temps downright brutal!

So let's move along to the next event and the one after that will be on the radar over the next couple days.

Here you have the low as it is coming up the coast and make note of the location in Canada of the upper high. That is what will be funneling down the cold air ahead of the system.









Now it is really far too early to nail anything down but lets just do a what if and say it's going to stick with current model trends (better than not chance). What concerns me with this one is the back-end will probably transition to rain before finishing and then plunge back and freeze with a possibility of any lingering furies leaving that nice powdered doughnut look on the ice!

So let's have a look at the 850mb temps as the system tracks across SNE









And that's where you see the mixing just on the tail end of the system. Now looking at some of the projected wind gusts next week is also going to be windy including this system here we have a snap of the 10m gusts during the event:









So we add high winds to the mix and we are going to have one heck of an event on our hands come Monday night through Tuesday.

So quick recap Monday night through Tuesday looking at a possible high impact winter storm with heavy snowfall, mixing, high winds, and dropping temps post storm.

The low should form off the coast in the Carolina area sometime Sunday and then we will be in better position to really nail down the extent of what is to come.

This system also has the possibility of hanging around for a bit and could be a prolonged event. Which segues right into the next event later in the week from Friday/Saturday as seen here:









So we have a one two punch heading our way for next week and it seems as if this might just be the pattern for the month of February.

Ok now for a little fun and keep in mind this is just pure entertainment at this point but lets see what we can find for a complete hysterical QPF output. I give you the Canadian with the Kuchera ratio applied!










And finally I will leave you with the CFSv2 2m temp anomaly for the month of Feb and the GFES Extended 35 day Snowfall total:

















Keep your stick on the ice!


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## AccuCon

Snow, Wind, Mixing?

Well as most of you see it's already snowing in SNE. I have some quick updates from the NAM 3km and Rapid refresh to look at just to see when and where that mixing may occur. Keep in mind this is going to be a very long duration storm. It looks like even on the backend come wed. we might still see some lingering flurries. Also keep in mind that another system is coming right behind that along with a third (possibly even bigger next week).

P-Type 3hr animated









You see the mixing lets check the 850mb temps









This will give you a better idea where the most mixing will occur along the shore line.

Let's take a look at winds here we have sustained winds through out the event









With peak wind gusts occurring around 7-8pm tonight









And here we have what the NAM thinks for snow totals









The NWS lowest amounts









And for fun here is the Canadian









So recap we will see about 12-18" of snow with highest amounts in the NW sections of CT. The shore line will see some mixing and some mixing will come inland but it should be limited. The winds will be high especially Monday evening and continuing through out.

Remember we have two more systems on our way post this system

Friday









Next Monday









Stay Frosty


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## PLOWMAN45

other systems in play still


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## AC2717

how did everyone make out??


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## chrisf250

AC2717 said:


> how did everyone make out??


Need more shovelers. One of my accounts just changed their walkways to pavers and now forbid us from using snow blowers. 118 town homes with 40 foot of walkways per is killing my guys


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## AC2717

chrisf250 said:


> Need more shovelers. One of my accounts just changed their walkways to pavers and now forbid us from using snow blowers. 118 town homes with 40 foot of walkways per is killing my guys


time to up the price and also run brushes if you can, but will have to be out there every few inches with them


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## AccuCon

Well I was going to make an update but I got side tracked....

I fared well, nothing broke, was actually ahead of the game for once....Then the drifting happened....Was right back to the beginning....Still finished in time to go help another contractor.... Oh and the SMS Assist app is ridiculous!

I will do a weather update for Friday and the next possible bigger storm, tomorrow!










ECMWF Weeklies 46 day snow outlook..........


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## PLOWMAN45

Bigger storm for ?


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## AccuCon

So we have a bunch going on and as I was trying to put this together the GFS output went down on my service. So we will skip that, I am seeing a few things coming and to watch for lets take a look.

First lets start with tomorrows nuisance its looking like mostly rain maybe a dusting to a couple inches in the Northwest corner.

Here is the ECMWF animated for the time frame it is seeing the system pass thru (around 8AM-1PMish)









The temps at the 850mb are in the zone as seen here, but...








Now the but.....2m temps at Noon









This does not support much in the way of snow.....So perhaps maybe a slight chance of some deicing applications in the AM north of 84 and west of 91, but it wont stick around long.

And the funny pictures








The NAM by Sunday paints a different picture









Im sticking with it being a non issue and a dusting to a couple inches in the highest elevations but to be washed away or melted off pavement from the higher 2m temps by noon.

Now before we talk about the next possible event earlhy next week and then a following one later next week lets take a look at some 2m morning temps for the week ahead.

Sunday morning around 8AM








Monday 7AM








Tuesday 7AM








Wed 7AM








Thurs 7AM








Saturday 7AM








Sunday the 14th









So it's looking cold with a significant cold air mass in place. This is a prime ingredient for any winter mischief!

Now here we have a shot of the next system coming through Sunday into Monday









What the ECMWF is projecting as of now









Here is the NAM 12km on track for Sunday to monday








Everything seems to be ping ponging around currently so we must keep an eye out on these. It also looks like something possible Tuesday.

And then another possible bigger event towards next weekend. The GEFS (Ensemble) is seeing significant snow over the next 10 days with the majority of this being from the event possible next weekend. Here we have the snowfall outlook to the 15th









So in recap we have a mostly non event event (HA) tomorrow, possibly pick up a couple inches Sunday into Monday. Perhaps a ice event Tuesday and maybe another biggun come next weekend with cold mornings for the majority of the next 10 days.

10 day CFSv2 2m temp anomaly








GEFS Month out projected snow








ECMWF Month out projected snow









Keep your plow on the lot!

Check out the Facebook page for random updates (never as detailed as here)
https://www.facebook.com/SNEXY


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## PLOWMAN45

I'm not taking it off


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## quigleysiding

Thanks for the update .


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## AccuCon

So it's going to be a regular grand slam of storm after storm for the next 10+ days. February is ripping this year boys and girls!!!!

Interesting tid bit but NWS regional offices have different criteria for issuing warnings and advisories:









Moving right along and into Super Sunday Storm Shenanigans! Wind should not be a factor in this one as the highest winds appear pre storm today and Sunday morning seen here:








Here we can see the track and if it shifts north we will see a significant increase in snowfall amounts. This is a fast mover as it comes offshore tonight around midnight and is on SNE's doorstep by 8AM Sunday!









Here we have the P-type from 7AM sunday to 7PM sunday









Sunday morning 2m temps








Monday 7AM 2m temps








NAM 3km High res snowfall projected for Sunday's event








NWS Projected output








Onset times








End times








Lets look at just some of the next storms coming our way

Tomorrows








Tuesday/Wed








Friday








Next Wed








ECMWF Projected snowfall loop next 10 days









Think the groundhog was right this year!

Plow on Wayne!!!!!


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## aclawn

Nice update!


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## PLOWMAN45

I think I had 8 inches here in Norwalk .They are talking Tuesday what do you see ?


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## AccuCon

Well it's snowing again......

We still have a very active pattern on our hands with multiple threats incoming. It's looking like the Thurs/Fri system will be sliding to our south and not impacting SNE. However their is opportunity still for the V-Day storm and another one mid week next week.

The current on going event I still like the 4-6" North of I84.

Quick recap of last storm with snowfall totals:









See the NAM had a slight hiccup this morning:









But it is right back in the game as seen in the left image (note the left image is always going to be the most recent run).

The snow should be wrapping up early this evening:








Moving along....

Looking to be a cold and snowy next few weeks. Here we have the CFSv2 2m Temp anomaly:










And going way out next 30 days









And to reinforce what that climate model sees, here we have a 2m snap for next Tuesday just before another possible major system impact.









So lets check some tracks real quick of the next systems

Thurs/Friday sliding south









Sunday impact









Tues/Weds possible hammer








7 day snow outlook









Possible snowfall Tues/Weds








32 Day outlook









Comparing weeklies 32 day projected snowfall. Model seems to keep it's thoughts...









GFS seems to agree









Comparing next 7 day projected snowfall outputs run to run








OOOOOooooh Boy we have an uptick!

Stay tuned we got more to come here at Snowapalooza Two Thousand and Twenty ONE!


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## PLOWMAN45

So Sunday ?


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## AC2717

Sunday and Tuesday Getting stronger?


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## AccuCon

Most recent event totals









CFSv2 2m Temp anomaly next 30









So we have a lot still going on, the parade of systems keeps coming and I spy another one as far out as the 19th. Starting Friday we will have three pieces of energy on CONUS and models are going to have a difficult time with accuracy here.

As it stands it appears Thursdays event will be sliding south of us and missing SNE. However Saturday night thru Sunday expect to pick up another possible 3-6" and then we have a real mess coming Tues/Wed of snow, sleet, freezing rain, rain, failing temps, dogs sleeping with cats, COMPLETE PANDEMONIUM!!! And then another possibility later that week.

Here we see the next one sliding to our south:









Saturday thru Sunday









Funny picture








GFS (this is just for posterity, it's useless)








Canadian









Now the more interesting one starting on Tuesday








Oh man would you look at that....

Temps in the 850mb support that









2m Temps Tuesday moring








And here we get a little warm wed








And then right back down wed night









Some output ideas

Frz Rain









Sleet








Snow









Keeping an eye on the new one









Snow outlook









Stay tuned as the fun continues!


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## PLOWMAN45

I need freezing rain like i need a hole in my head


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## AccuCon

And the fun continues..... Lots to talk about here with the next storm approaching tomorrow and the following system Monday! As temps will continue to be below avg and the possibilities of events just keep coming all the way out to March 5th. Winter keeps on and then gets ugly possibly.

Currently many places in SNE are above avg for seasonal snowfall as seen here as of Feb 12th









So lets take a look at what is coming tomorrow. All conditions are right for snow and it appears this one might linger around for a bit. Lets check surface temps first starting with Thursday 8am








With the warmest being Thursday at 3PM








Friday morning at 8am (keep in mind the system will still be ongoing) temps








With the high of the day Friday afternoon at 2PM








Jumping to Sunday morning at 7AM








And Monday morning at 4AM








So we have old in place through out the next 2 events.

Lets hop up to the 850mb or roughly 5,000 feet and check that temp for the duration of the next storm








As you see we stay in the snow zone through the entire duration. Spekaing of duration lets take a look at track and how long this thing might stick around for.









So thats the GFS from 7AM Thursday to 7AM Sunday as you can see this lingers a bit right through Saturday. This only gives us a brief break Sunday before the next system on Monday, more on that later.

So lets take a look at some projected totals and model run comparisons. I will give you a lot here and we will discuss.

NAM 12km Kuchera (this is the output I like the best, thus far)









GFS 10:1








GFS Kuchera








Canadian 10:1








Now I am saving the ECMWF for last because it seems to be the most outlying model on this so far

10:1








Kuchera








We shall see what the 06z and 12z have to offer coming up.... I will probably post that over on the Facebook page.

Lets look at some model run comparisons.

ECMWF








GFS








NAM 12km









Newest run is always on the left so you can see some trend shifting however the GFS seems to like what it sees consistently.

Lets see what the NWS Boston office has in mind








And their on set times


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## AccuCon

And finally we have the lowest amount possibly projected at








So with all those funny pictures out of the way I feel the 8-12 is a good call for the majority of SNE with locally higher areas. Does not appear to be any mixing and winds dont seem to come into play until Saturday as the system is fizzling out.

Here we have gusts on Friday afternoon








And significant gusting on Saturday afternoon








With it really kicking up later Saturday afternoon 








Ok so lets recap this event before moving on to Mondays and longer term outlooks.

It's going to be cold, it's going to snow, it's going to linger around for awhile, it's not going to be windy until the end and as the system moves out. We are looking at a general 8-12" as of now and a start time of around 7AM Thursday with the main event coming in later in the day and going into Friday then sticking around being annoying until late Saturday.

So lets now take a quick look at Mondays shenanigans








Oh boy I am not liking that change over at the end! We will have to keep a close eye on this one while watching the next 24-48hrs worth of winter fun.

Then we have a little clipper coming thru around Wed. the 24th









What is this icyness on Sat the 27th









Wait more around the 3rd









But wait even more around the 5th








So we have all of that........

Quick look at the projected 32 day snowfalls

ECMWF








GEFS








And the big finale.....I give you the CFSv2 2m temp anomaly 5day from Feb 23 to April 5th animated for your viewing pleasure









Holy smokes that was a lot to cover as you can see weather wise we have a lot going on the next few weeks. Looking more and more like that ground hog was right. However the systems way out into march will need to be watched as they may be more of an icing event for SNE then snow. With snow being more of a northern thing.

I hope I didn't forget anything I think we got it covered, I feel exhausted after this post! No rest for the wicked off to fix snow equipment!

Stay frosty!

Oh and changing a few things up with a new email address on the weather letter (shifting everything around in line with the facebook page) Im not really sure where any of this is going but its a thing and the changes are more to keep it separated.....and expand!


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## PLOWMAN45

whats the start time on this storm


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## AccuCon

HRRR - 15min Composite Reflectivity Type - Animated 18hrs


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## chrisf250

AccuCon said:


> HRRR - 15min Composite Reflectivity Type - Animated 18hrs


I plow in north eastern MA am I looking at this right? Dosnt look like I'll have anything until tomorrow?!?


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## AccuCon

That was only up until 6AM Friday. from Noon Thursday to 6AM Friday


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## AccuCon

NAM 3km run comparison latest to previous









GFS









Euro


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## PLOWMAN45

Ok is there more snow tomorrow or is that it for the weekend >?


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## AccuCon

Newest Simdar


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## PLOWMAN45

I know March we have had some good snowstorms


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## NAHA

Not looking so hot for any more snow. This is new england so expect something


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## PLOWMAN45

Plow is on still


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## Avalanche 2500

PLOWMAN45 said:


> I know March we have had some good snowstorms


Ya never Know 
1997 April Fool's Day blizzard - Wikipedia


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## PLOWMAN45

Yep I was contacting and plowing roads


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## AccuCon

Looks like we might have another go at it Thursday overnight into Friday morning! Let's take a quick look.

Here we have the system on Thursday (03/18/2021) at 11AM









She's formidable but will the temps and conditions pre ripe for winter shenanigans'???

Especially here Friday morning around 5AM when it appears to be the strongest of SNE









Lets check 2m temps. It appears that around 4am the 2m temps will be below freezing and with the time change aspect that means we still have a time before the sun comes up (6:55AM for Hartford on the 19th).

Here is the 2m at 5AM









And it doesnt appear to break out above freezing until afternoon.

Here is the 2m projected at 1PM









So we know the surface temps will get down to freezing during this event and actually will be coldest at the peak and should last until after the system has passed.

So lets move up the air column and take a look at the 850mb temps. Here we see the 850mb becomes prime for snow around 2AM Friday morning









And remains that way through out the remainder of the event and post

Here is 5AM









And here at 5PM Friday evening









As you can see the cold air is still funneling in behind the system and we can see that with the 7AM Saturday projected 2m Temps









So here we have the animated ECMWF 6hr P-type QPF w/ MSLP starting Thursday at 11AM thru Friday afternoon









And the GFS









The NAM 12km has mixing a little later in the morning as seen here at 5AM









Versus the ECMWF at the same time









So let's take a look at some funny pictures....

ECMWF









GFS









Take a look at some meteograms

Bradley








Brainard








Tweed









This could be the last hurrah so to speak albeit the long range temps look to be slightly below or seasonable for the next 30 days or so.

Stay frosty friends!


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## PLOWMAN45

My plow is still on . I wonder if sw ct will get anything


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## AccuCon

Well looks like we end on a bust......

Been a heck of a season, see y'all next year....maybe, lol.

Looking like warmer than usual summer ahead...










__
Sensitive content, not recommended for those under 18
Show Content









Peace out winter!


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## Western1

Is there a double like button?


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## PLOWMAN45

plow is off truck bed cleaned out


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## AccuCon

Watch out Northern New England over the next 48hrs

For more weather info check out, follow, and like:
https://www.facebook.com/SNEXY


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## Embalmer

Money on winter being a bust in MA this year? (Thread been incredibly quiet)


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## Avalanche 2500

Embalmer said:


> Money on winter being a bust in MA this year? (Thread been incredibly quiet)


How can it snow when it was 60 this past wed,/thurs ?


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## 1olddogtwo

Avalanche 2500 said:


> How can it snow when it was 60 this past wed,/thurs ?


I was in Boston all last week, a perfect week for working outside in Dec. I thought Friday was the better with the sun out, even tho it might have been warmer Thursday.

Last weekend, drove through Buffalo and all the way across, I was very much surprised not to see any snow. Hit snow showers while I was driving back to Buffalo yesterday, rain in Erie.


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## NEhomer

Came home Friday evening and they were predicting at least some wet snow from 9oclock to 3 so I mounted the plow. Woke up Saturday with the call now for all rain....went out and removed the plow.
Cripes.


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## Fourteen Contracting Inc.

NEhomer said:


> Came home Friday evening and they were predicting at least some wet snow from 9oclock to 3 so I mounted the plow. Woke up Saturday with the call now for all rain....went out and removed the plow.
> Cripes.


It's appropriate because of the name of the magazine


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## Embalmer

Weather. Com is showing potential 5-6 inches up on methuen area Thursday/ Friday.


----------



## vmj

Does Bernie Rayno still put out a forecast? And where. I think he stopped doing his Facebook one.


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## Embalmer

Up to 8, possibly more inches on Friday now.


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## AC2717

What is This Friday Shaping up to look like for MA


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## scaypa

I’m seeing 1-3 or 3-5 or 3-6


----------



## NAHA

Pretty much how I look at it


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## Randall Ave

vmj said:


> Does Bernie Rayno still put out a forecast? And where. I think he stopped doing his Facebook one.


He has one on twitter.


----------



## eagle-eyes

Here is a weather site everyone might like North East Weather Alert he pretty good with his forecasting , He's on multiple social media platforms.


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## Embalmer

Figure as this here as if congress to fruition, we get slammed (just not as bad)


----------



## scaypa

Are we getting anything Sunday into Monday?


----------



## PLOWMAN45

Embalmer said:


> Figure as this here as if congress to fruition, we get slammed (just not as bad)
> View attachment 230043


I know we aren't getting that much


----------



## Embalmer

Typical meteorologist "fluffing". Gets all hard for snow for a week, then last minute flakes to rain ect day of or before. 


scaypa said:


> Are we getting anything Sunday into Monday?


----------



## Western1

AccuCon said:


> Well looks like we end on a bust......
> 
> Been a heck of a season, see y'all next year....maybe, lol.
> 
> Looking like warmer than usual summer ahead...
> View attachment 215393
> 
> 
> View attachment 215394
> 
> Peace out winter!


Is it that time already?


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## Embalmer

Western1 said:


> Is it that time already?


Way it looks with all the forecasts, snowy winter isn't showing up this year. Just cold air, and dick kicking cold rain up here in NE MA.... even for what I see weeks out is as mundane as a old lady Bridge game


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## Embalmer

Definite potential to be a big one


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## PLOWMAN45

I already heard the term Bomb Cyclone used


----------



## AC2717

I know it has been asked before, but I cannot find it, where can I get snow totals by month. Need to see November 2021 to date
Thank you


----------



## Blizzard1974

I had put this in a Mass thread but thought you would enjoy the read here too.

I can't believe what has happened to this state sometimes.

https://www.bostonherald.com/2022/01/28/howie-carr-woke-snowplowing-bostons-new-hire-swears-by-it/

"equity snow plowing"


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## Randall Ave

Blizzard1974 said:


> I had put this in a Mass thread but thought you would enjoy the read here too.
> 
> I can't believe what has happened to this state sometimes.
> 
> https://www.bostonherald.com/2022/01/28/howie-carr-woke-snowplowing-bostons-new-hire-swears-by-it/
> 
> "equity snow plowing"


Don't have many words for that cept she's a DA.


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