# Pa Winter Weather Discussion 2012-13



## FISHERBOY (Aug 13, 2007)

Lets hear from all the guys around Pa
Right now there is a el nino slowly coming on, thats only a small part of this winters puzzle, we hav a negative PDO(google that), and warm AMO, with the warm AMO thats why there has been alot lot of ice melting in the arctic. 
What most of your local weather men wouldn't tell you is this, every el nino is different, there are not all blow torch warm 
When the water warms right off of the west coast of south america, thats a bad sign for the winter, 97-98:crying: Currently this el nino looks to be central based, a central based el nino with a negative PDO, and warm AMO, could bring all of us a chance of having a good, to great winter payup.


----------



## grandview (Oct 9, 2005)

How about right now? You getting rain that we'll be getting tomorrow morning?


----------



## FISHERBOY (Aug 13, 2007)

yes about 1-3 inches of rain


----------



## Wilnip (Oct 4, 2011)

It's all a guessing game at this point. 10 day forecasts are never accurate let alone 4 months from now.


----------



## Nutz4Plowing (Apr 24, 2012)

*Have it both ways...*

I have myself set up for 60% seasonal and 40% per push so it almost doesnt really matter I'll be busy counting money or spending it on salt and part/maintenance..
Just want a easy to manage winter, no < 8 inch is good for me.


----------



## FISHERBOY (Aug 13, 2007)

*winter*



Wilnip;1491004 said:


> It's all a guessing game at this point. 10 day forecasts are never accurate let alone 4 months from now.


Long range forecasting is very tough, and certainly not a guess, there are trends in the atomsphere that are a road map in any season.


----------



## Wilnip (Oct 4, 2011)

FISHERBOY;1491013 said:


> Long range forecasting is very tough, and certainly not a guess, there are trends in the atomsphere that are a road map in any season.


I understand that. And i didn't mean it to be sarcastic. Meteorologists have a tough job. I simply meant its a little to far off to get excited. Although I have been getting ready for a few weeks now. Infact I ordered tires for one truck today and the other is getting a spreader installed tomorrow. Tires for it to follow.


----------



## basher (Nov 13, 2004)

You forget about the sunspots.

There is a lack of sunspot activity right now and that leads to cooler temperatures. If you look at the history of sunspots the worst winters are those with relatively little or no sunspot activity. The best example of this is the Maunder Minimum. The period from 1650-1725 (approx.) also known as the little ice age. For a excellent explanation as to the hows and whys of forecasting this particular winter check out Snow-day.org for Craig's first winter prognostication.

http://snowday1.wordpress.com/2012/09/16/winter-forecast-2012-2013/

and yes if the NAO/AO doesn't go negative we could be in for a repeat of last year.

an excerpt from Snowday's winter 12/13 forecast

_One thing I am worried about is if the NAO/AO stay negative through the winter time or if they go back to where they were last winter and the entire winter just changes once again, but I have enough evidence that the current pattern is going to take us into a much more snowier and colder winter for folks_!


----------



## FISHERBOY (Aug 13, 2007)

Yes the sun also plays a big part. Getting bac to the NAO, its was negative just about all summer, but in summer time u get a different signal of course haha. Snowday did put out a good forecast. 
Snow cover in western Canada is also a player in any winter, the more snow in western canada, the stronger the cold air masses will be, currently snow cover is close to normal in that area.


----------



## dunlaps lawncare (Sep 5, 2007)

all a guessing game at this point


----------



## rob guarino (Sep 12, 2012)

:mechanic::salute:Hey All

Check out our blogs, we are weighting the variables for PA this and have won a bunch of awards for our snow accuracy in PA over the years.

www.liveweatherblogs.com

--Meteorologist Rob Guarino


----------



## FISHERBOY (Aug 13, 2007)

*Snow*

There's a chance of snow for parts of western pa by later this weekend or early next week


----------



## Wilnip (Oct 4, 2011)

Looks like my plows and salter will be on this weekend. We may just get a nice little scrimmage. A nice light snow would be nice to get the bugs worked out.


----------



## dunlaps lawncare (Sep 5, 2007)

Wilnip;1504004 said:


> Looks like my plows and salter will be on this weekend. We may just get a nice little scrimmage. A nice light snow would be nice to get the bugs worked out.


trial run every fall would be nice


----------



## Wilnip (Oct 4, 2011)

I heard the rumor from several people today that we could see the mother of all storms Monday. 40 inches. I have not been watching the news or weather reports. Someone fill me in...


----------



## IDOCTORTREES (Dec 27, 2006)

It has been snowing lightly here for 3 days..Sidewalks and deice, No real plowing yet.


----------



## Wilnip (Oct 4, 2011)

Figured its time to wake this thread up. :waving: Looks like we will be getting some snow in the western half of the state. xysport Not sure if it will be plowable, but will probably get some salting in this week. 40mph gusts could make it interesting. Id really like to do a full run to see how my route needs tweaking and how the trucks perform (and the drivers).


----------



## Spool it up (Oct 30, 2012)

dont look too promising here for at least 10 days out . But , one can never tell , especially a meteorologist .


----------



## Wilnip (Oct 4, 2011)

Just saw this graphic on TWC. Maybe we will be scraping.


----------



## peteo1 (Jul 4, 2011)

Wilnip;1541145 said:


> Just saw this graphic on TWC. Maybe we will be scraping.


I saw the same thing. Keeping my fingers crossed but I'm not getting my hopes up. Although I will say this, since I have to go up to Cleveland this weekend it'll probably snow til Sunday. Oh well, at least it would be money in the pocketbook.


----------



## FISHERBOY (Aug 13, 2007)

i saw that also, i think the western part of our state near erie has a reall good chance at lake effect this weekend. For me i've had 2 plowing events that was bac in november, that was the first time since 2007, or 2008 we had events in november. On youtube check nynjpa weather channel, good info there


----------



## mpriester (Oct 2, 2011)

weather underground and kdka have both issued winter weather watch for my area from thursday night to saturday, calling for 6". It would be nice. Keeping my fingers crossed.


----------



## lfaulstick (Sep 7, 2009)

my fingers are crossed as well....we had one event so far that was last part of nov. had 2 trucks out.

i see that no one is committing on any accumulation for our area either just in the 1-3 to 3-6 range


----------



## Wilnip (Oct 4, 2011)

mpriester;1541617 said:


> weather underground and kdka have both issued winter weather watch for my area from thursday night to saturday, calling for 6". It would be nice. Keeping my fingers crossed.


Where are you from?


----------



## FISHERBOY (Aug 13, 2007)

I'M keeping my fingers crossed for myself for friday morning, maybe enough to scrape, or at the very least do alittle ice control.


----------



## peteo1 (Jul 4, 2011)

FISHERBOY;1541318 said:


> i saw that also, i think the western part of our state near erie has a reall good chance at lake effect this weekend. For me i've had 2 plowing events that was bac in november, that was the first time since 2007, or 2008 we had events in november. On youtube check nynjpa weather channel, good info there


I hope you're right. I'm in Erie and hoping to make some money this season. After last seasons bust and the warm temps thus far I'm keeping my fingers crossed but I'm not real optimistic.


----------



## Spool it up (Oct 30, 2012)

time to start plugging in the block heaters , it's starting to look good for the white stuff to lay here also .


----------



## mpriester (Oct 2, 2011)

Wilnip;1541669 said:


> Where are you from?


connellsville.


----------



## mpriester (Oct 2, 2011)

mpriester;1541617 said:


> weather underground and kdka have both issued winter weather watch for my area from thursday night to saturday, calling for 6". It would be nice. Keeping my fingers crossed.


its bouncing around a bit so i guess we will get whatever but atleast its a start.


----------



## Wilnip (Oct 4, 2011)

WJAC has yet to give an accumulation amount. NWS issued a winter weather watch for Somerset County for 8 to 12 inches.


----------



## lfaulstick (Sep 7, 2009)

accuweather is stating 4-8 inches for us and NOAA is stating 2-4 thursday friday but no accumulations just 80-100% chance of snow.

im in potter county almost middle of state at ny border


----------



## Spool it up (Oct 30, 2012)

0-3'' Christmas Eve into Christmas as of now :laughing:


----------



## Spool it up (Oct 30, 2012)

the only tool that will be used this evening is an umbrella


----------



## Wilnip (Oct 4, 2011)

Had about an inch with a little sleet this afternoon. 3 of my fast food restaurants wanted cleaned up and salted. Everything else was closing. I think I was the only one plowing tonight. Didnt see anyone else. No we gotta see what Wednesday brings us.


----------



## Spool it up (Oct 30, 2012)

*2nd time this week we got teased .

Slushy coating to heavy , heavy rain .

LOOK OUT NY ,MASS and the great North east . Massive amounts of moisture headed your way .

if it was below 32* here during the last 3 storms , we'd have over 4.5' on the ground.

9-10 , 10-11 were killer years for business . *


----------



## peteo1 (Jul 4, 2011)

Got about 8"-10" yesterday. We managed to get almost two full runs through the route. A twelve hour stretch for the first plow of the season, not too bad.


----------



## Spool it up (Oct 30, 2012)

local stations are getting ballsy 48 hrs out around S.E.Pa.
one said its going to snow , very "unsure" of himself .
the other claims "bad weather" ahead this week end . 

stay tuned , guessin it needs to be tweeked . wish i could be correct at work 50% of the time and still hold a job .

Im not so sure i understand. think they need me to stay tuned?. talk about beating round the bush .


----------



## J&R Landscaping (Dec 25, 2005)

Chances are looking pretty good for this Saturday!


----------



## Spool it up (Oct 30, 2012)

watched the 430am fox news today , came home for lunch and watched action news , went back to the yard and bout an hour later i get a call about sat .
the potential event came outta no where ,


----------



## wrtenterprises (Mar 10, 2001)

The storm dropped 8" here in Happy Valley on Wednesday, and the State College NWS office just upped their totals for the Saturday storm to 3"-5". We've already been out more times this December, than all last season. (3) full rounds of snow removal and (1) round of salting. Plus, another minor storm is predicted to arrive New Year's Eve. 

White Gold Baby....Just in time to play with my newest toy, Meyer Super V2. Been a Western man for a decade, but a 3 year full warranty, and a 5 year warranty on all structural steel sealed the deal for a change. We shall see if Meyer is back in the game.....


----------



## Spool it up (Oct 30, 2012)

rub it in harder:laughing:

i havent spun a crumb outta the Dogg in a while .


----------



## Spool it up (Oct 30, 2012)

just got the advisory posted here for 0-4 .


----------



## J&R Landscaping (Dec 25, 2005)

Storm was looking better for the I-95 corridor last night. Went down from 3-5 down to either 1-3 or 2-4. Rain and mix line is creeping up north northwest. Fingers crossed that we can get at least one push out tomorrow!


----------



## Spool it up (Oct 30, 2012)

****** event most likely . dont look good .


----------



## Spool it up (Oct 30, 2012)

can always get a few laughs at the snow removal techs applying salt in the rain . I just cant get enough of that . 
Last storm , rain was coming down sideways in sheets and this dude was emtying his spreader on a starbux lot .:laughing:


----------



## jdilliplane1 (Dec 11, 2010)

*weather*

Yea, it looks like salt only event now. Weather people are horrible to say the least!! :realmad:


----------



## wrtenterprises (Mar 10, 2001)

Looks like Central Pa is in the sweet spot for December 2012. Another 4"-5" today, but the conveyor appears to end after this one. The I-95 corridor appears to be dry-slotting for a good portion of this storm. What a difference 24 hrs makes, as many here were only predicting a nuisance event. I'll do my snow dance for all you guys in the Eastern part of the state. It seems to have little effect on the weather pattern, but entertains my neighbors!!!


----------



## peteo1 (Jul 4, 2011)

The weather guessers said 1"-2" today. We ended up with 3"-4" depending on where you were. Would've been great had my 4wd not broken.


----------



## Spool it up (Oct 30, 2012)

nuked 1.5'' today . lotta guys trying to make a mountain out of a molehill .


----------



## GARRETTWOOD (Feb 3, 2005)

Had 2 snow events in northeast this week. 1st 6.5 inches and 2 nd 5 inches. Good week for plowing and salting.


----------



## FISHERBOY (Aug 13, 2007)

After being pretty active the weather looks kinda quiet till about mid january.


----------



## havenlax18 (Dec 16, 2010)

Looks like we might get a few inches.


----------



## wrtenterprises (Mar 10, 2001)

It's going to be a nice easy backpack blower event here @ PSU!!! Even if we get 3", the ratio will be so high due to the extreme cold, the snow will be very fluffy. Huge profit margin on these.....


----------



## Spool it up (Oct 30, 2012)

dittos on the ****** event . :laughing:


----------



## J&R Landscaping (Dec 25, 2005)

Getting the back pack blowers ready in SE PA as well. Coating-2" seems to be the latest call. Dry powder which will be easy to clear..


----------



## lucky921 (Dec 31, 2012)

We are getting nothin again wtf getting ready to right this winter off too


----------



## DodgeBlizzard (Nov 7, 2003)

Had a dusting here early this morning in Lock Haven. Less then 2 inches on it's way tomorrow afternoon into Saturday morning. Bring it on.


----------



## Spool it up (Oct 30, 2012)

0-4 '' coming .. lmbo


----------



## peteo1 (Jul 4, 2011)

Ended up with somewhere around 16-20 inches this week depending on where you are. Hectic event to say the least.


----------



## wrtenterprises (Mar 10, 2001)

Ended up with 2" of fluff here @ PSU. Nice easy one to train a couple of new guys.....


----------



## FISHERBOY (Aug 13, 2007)

I had a nice ice control run this morning, i was just glad everything started on site from sitting out in sub-zero temps


----------



## FISHERBOY (Aug 13, 2007)

looks like the big winners fron this clipper is going to be anyone south of I-80, close to 2 inches


----------



## Spool it up (Oct 30, 2012)

called for 2'' here .......nothing but a flurry . lmbo


----------



## Nutz4Plowing (Apr 24, 2012)

This is annoying, just enough to salt...and get you out of bed. Wouldn't mind a few plow able events to fill my vacation fund with.


----------



## peteo1 (Jul 4, 2011)

Had a nice plowing stretch from sat nite to mon morning. Nice event, nothing over 6" of light fluffy powder.


----------



## news913 (Jan 15, 2011)

About to call it a winter down here outside of Philly, nothing worthwhile down here all winter. I know there's a few weeks left but the snow has been more than scarce this year!


----------



## Nutz4Plowing (Apr 24, 2012)

It's not that the snow isn't out there. It's just not hitting us like it had in past years on average. Buy better spreaders and sell your plows boys (and girls where applicable). Always wanted to say it and actually mean it.


----------



## james.j.smith (Sep 20, 2010)

On travel for work this week and have been hearing mixed reports. Is there a chance that the Philadelphia area is going to get hit with some snow this weekend?


----------



## news913 (Jan 15, 2011)

Looks like were getting some down here in Delco, not to much tho between 2-5 seems like. I'll take anything we can get. Plus amounts like that are easy on the equipment! Hope you didn't sell your plow just yet Nutz lol .


----------



## Nutz4Plowing (Apr 24, 2012)

I didn't sell anything but my soul for being in this business. Just kidding. I find its not the total inches that get you, but the length of time it takes to get here that can make things suck sometimes. That and keeping up with salt in sub 20 degree weather. I'm just glad my fellow snow guys are catching some of that coin falling out of the sky. We are like Mario's from the video game bouncing around to get the coin.


----------



## Spool it up (Oct 30, 2012)

james.j.smith;1588722 said:


> On travel for work this week and have been hearing mixed reports. Is there a chance that the Philadelphia area is going to get hit with some snow this weekend?


which one ? i hear it every monday . :laughing:


----------



## news913 (Jan 15, 2011)

I'd say its all over now. March is basically here and it's raining already. We didn't get much down here in southeast pa. I'd say all around we didn't get more than 4 inches all winter. I got out and did some salting mostly. I wish we could have gotten a few 8 inch storms but I can say I payed for my plow at least this year. Time to mothball the plow and get ready for some spring/ summer time beers!!


----------



## yoced (Feb 7, 2011)

told the boss to put everything away. maybe that way we'll get a march dump


----------



## aclawn (Oct 17, 2009)




----------



## Cutter1 (Jul 28, 2000)

I saw this also. could be big


----------



## aclawn (Oct 17, 2009)

Cutter1;1611618 said:


> I saw this also. could be big


This is what it look like for you 120hrs out pretty interesting.


----------



## BBC co (Nov 29, 2012)




----------



## Spool it up (Oct 30, 2012)

national gaurd rolling 
state of emergency in effect 
milk, egg deficit type of storm


----------



## BBC co (Nov 29, 2012)

Spool it up;1612434 said:


> national gaurd rolling
> state of emergency in effect
> milk, egg deficit type of storm


you forgot the most important Moonshine! :laughing:


----------



## BBC co (Nov 29, 2012)




----------



## kimber750 (Sep 19, 2011)

SHHHHHHHH You will scare the snow away.


----------



## Spool it up (Oct 30, 2012)

this monster is too big to be scared away. snow or rain . keep your fingers crossed we get the cross hairs


----------



## BBC co (Nov 29, 2012)

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-video/mid-atlantic-snowstorm/91358901001


----------



## Spool it up (Oct 30, 2012)

hold on lizabeth , this one should go down in history


----------



## BBC co (Nov 29, 2012)

Potential Snowfall totals for select towns in the Mid-Atlantic based on the latest run of the SREF model:

York, PA: 13" | Philly, PA: 7"
Washington, DC: 10" | Baltimore, MD: 12"
Frederick, MD: 13" | Hagerstown, MD: 13"
Pax River, MD: 4" | Salisbury, MD: 2"
Martinsburg: 13" | Aberdeen, MD: 9"
Quantico, VA: 7" | Dover, DE: 3.5"
Winchester, VA: 13" | Dulles, VA: 11"

This is just what the model shows and not a forecast. Expect to see a forecast map out at some point tonight.

New GFS model run will be in around 11am, followed by the GFS ensembles and then the Euro in the early afternoon


----------



## BBC co (Nov 29, 2012)

‎12z Operational GFS Snowfall Accumulation Map for the midweek storm. Majority of precipitation falls Wednesday 
Next up will be the 12z Euro in the early afternoon


----------



## Spool it up (Oct 30, 2012)

*keep up the good work there skippy. these chains are for 17'' sneakers but we have the technology to fabricate , im busy wrangling chains and welding gramps home made box. popop ready to navigate 4' drifts . heehaw , no sleep till brooklyn *


----------



## Spool it up (Oct 30, 2012)




----------



## BBC co (Nov 29, 2012)

I like the was the cutting edge wraps around the side of the plow u fab that ?


----------



## Spool it up (Oct 30, 2012)

BBC co;1612940 said:


> I like the was the cutting edge wraps around the side of the plow u fab that ?


stock part # BAR18140


----------



## Spool it up (Oct 30, 2012)

*...winter storm watch in effect from 
late wednesday night through thursday evening...

The national weather service in pennsylvania has issued 
a winter storm watch...which is in effect from late wednesday
night through thursday evening.

* timing...light snow is is expected to spread across 
southeast pennsylvania through northwest new jersey
wednesday night and become more intense thursday
morning and afternoon.

* snow accumulation...in excess of 6 inches possible.

* other impacts...snow may fall heavily at times from
wednesday morning through thursday afternoon.
Accumulation rates of 1 to 1.5 inches per hour
are possible at times making snow removal difficult
and travel extremely dangerous.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A winter storm watch means there is a potential
for significant snow...sleet...or ice accumulations
that may impact travel. Continue to monitor the latest forecasts.

&& 
__________________*


----------



## BBC co (Nov 29, 2012)




----------



## Spool it up (Oct 30, 2012)

kid karson and the bbc are working on it hourly . stay tuned


----------



## BBC co (Nov 29, 2012)

Here is the snowfall map from the 18z GFS operational run


----------



## Spool it up (Oct 30, 2012)

wheres the color difference between 6.5 and 18.5 ?  same colors

you need an HD copy / paster.....................lmao


----------



## BBC co (Nov 29, 2012)

it would be easy to see the 18.0 would be inside the red then yellow roflz

Here's a first idea on snowfall accumulations for Wednesday, based on the latest data. The key here is that there is growing confidence that there will be a band of heavy snowfall accumulations +10"...exactly where that will happen and who gets what exactly may vary largely. Please continue to monitor the latest forecast as we approach Wednesday. We are expecting to make changes on this throughout the week.


----------



## BBC co (Nov 29, 2012)

off topic but
NE Emergency News & WX Feed
Pittsburgh, PA ***3rd Alarm*** 2647 Perrysville Ave, Building fire with exposure issues. Listen live.


----------



## Spool it up (Oct 30, 2012)

BBC co;1613238 said:


> off topic but
> NE Emergency News & WX Feed
> Pittsburgh, PA ***3rd Alarm*** 2647 Perrysville Ave, Building fire with exposure issues. Listen live.


oh , a hoser ay ? :laughing:


----------



## BBC co (Nov 29, 2012)




----------



## news913 (Jan 15, 2011)

....And that, as they say, IS THAT! Country music, cold beers and the ******* yacht club are around the corner....GOODBYE to the winter that never was (AGAIN) to Southeast Pa!!!


----------



## havenlax18 (Dec 16, 2010)

news913;1616102 said:


> ....And that, as they say, IS THAT! Country music, cold beers and the ******* yacht club are around the corner....GOODBYE to the winter that never was (AGAIN) to Southeast Pa!!!


Looks like nothing


----------



## jeffslawnservic (Apr 23, 2009)

news913;1616102 said:


> ....And that, as they say, IS THAT! Country music, cold beers and the ******* yacht club are around the corner....GOODBYE to the winter that never was (AGAIN) to Southeast Pa!!!


Look on the bright side it was better than last.


----------



## yoced (Feb 7, 2011)

apologies to all. i chickened out and put the plow on before the storm. i'm sure that had i left it off we may have done better...


----------



## FISHERBOY (Aug 13, 2007)

Just wondering how much snow/ice u got with the last storm, i had 6.5 at one location, and 5.5 at the other site, plus a light coating of ice


----------



## havenlax18 (Dec 16, 2010)

We got nada in Delco and Chester county


----------



## havenlax18 (Dec 16, 2010)

Maybe tonight?????


----------

