# snow day



## 3311 (Oct 10, 2007)

Snow-Day.org Articles
Written by Craig McPeck


Exclusive articles and research written by Craig McPeck will be stored inside here.

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Re Curving Hurricanes Away from the US Coastlines and what it means for winter

By Craig McPeck



The 2009 Hurricane Season, is too be remembered a very quiet season which had very few powerful hurricanes. However, the current season is not over, it is easy to assume that with the amount of shear and jet stream tracks, that the current Hurricane season will not progress to be as strong as forecasted as past years.



All seven of the named Tropical Cyclones; Danny, Claudette, Tropical Depression One, Erika, Bill , Ana, with the exception of the current active tropical cyclone, Fred; have nearly curved away from any of the United States coastlines out to sea. At least 6 out of the 7 named tropical cyclones for the 2009 Hurricane Season.







Now you are probably wondering, whats the big deal about this, its great that they are missing the United States, and yes it is great. Recurving Tropical Cyclones have a significant importance on the winter in the United States. It has been known, to past occurences of 12 or more re curving Tropical Cyclones that wetter then normal conditions were present across portions of the Northeastern, Ohio Valley and portions of the Midwestern United States during the winter months. With the Southeast and Southwestern United States staying pretty dry. With five or less re curving tropical cyclones, the above is usually the opposite. Take a look at the chart below regarding the above subject;


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## JohnnyRoyale (Jun 18, 2006)

Dont see a chart.


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## trycyber (Sep 13, 2006)

Well Thats depressing.


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## swtiih (Nov 30, 2008)

If you go to http://snowday.community.officelive.com/default.aspx you can see the entire article

Snow-Day.org


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## 2COR517 (Oct 23, 2008)

Wetter than normal across the Northeast sounds good to me.


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## Mark Oomkes (Dec 10, 2000)

This is just BS, overall, the last 2 years have been pretty quiet and we've been hammered with snow the last 2 seasons.


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## 2COR517 (Oct 23, 2008)

Mark Oomkes;806810 said:


> This is just BS, overall, the last 2 years have been pretty quiet and we've been hammered with snow the last 2 seasons.


Why do you have to rub it in how *mulch *snow you had last year?


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## Mark Oomkes (Dec 10, 2000)

2COR517;806834 said:


> Why do you have to rub it in how *mulch *snow you had last year?


Because it's sooooooooo *mulch* fun!!!!!


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## cretebaby (Aug 23, 2008)

Mark Oomkes;806835 said:


> Because it's sooooooooo *mulch* fun!!!!!


I think there is a pretty good chance that MarkO is just as *mulch* of a tard as the rest of us. xysport


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## tls22 (Sep 30, 2007)

Oh boy!:bluebounc I live in the northeast, i better get a bigger truck.


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## hydro_37 (Sep 10, 2006)

I am still waiting for Timmy to give us his prediction....especially for here.


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## Clapper&Company (Jan 4, 2005)

I better buy another S-10 if im plowing both walmarts this year then


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## tls22 (Sep 30, 2007)

hydro_37;807593 said:


> I am still waiting for Timmy to give us his prediction....especially for here.


Prob by mid-late october Tim....i want to see what this el-nino does first


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## hydro_37 (Sep 10, 2006)

tls22;808386 said:


> Prob by mid-late october Tim....i want to see what this el-nino does first


Crap...I sure as hell hope not that soon,
We will still be taking boat docks out of the Lake.
2nd week of Nov and I would be happy.:redbounce


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## Mark Oomkes (Dec 10, 2000)

tls22;808386 said:


> Prob by mid-late october Tim....i want to see what this el-nino does first


You mean the el Nino that is a whopping 1/10 of a degree higher than normal?


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## tls22 (Sep 30, 2007)

hydro_37;808461 said:


> Crap...I sure as hell hope not that soon,
> We will still be taking boat docks out of the Lake.
> 2nd week of Nov and I would be happy.:redbounce


LOL...no i ment my forcast for winter...not ur first snow....I think you have a good shot at a late november storm this winter...we shall see what happens.



Mark Oomkes;808573 said:


> You mean the el Nino that is a whopping 1/10 of a degree higher than normal?


I really dont know where you get ur information from...since when do they rate El nino's off normal bases? They are classified as weak,moderate, and strong. You sound like a person that does not really buy into a nino effecting the pattern that much,i could see why you feel that way. You live next to a big body of water that is prob going to give you more then half your seasonal snowfall every winter. 97-98 that el nino was so strong pretty much everyone torch all winter long.......it effected the pattern down stream so much, it f'ed us all. Our last el nino...which was moderate was in 2006-2007....a very back loaded winter. After a early season snowstorm in the mid west......December was crap......after the turn of the year things started to pick up. As of right now you can see the upper midwest has been warmer then avg for the last few weeks....i believe Duluth is plus 8 for the month...and the cold departures are down south where then been getting all the rain with the cut-off low. If this was January the pattern would suck for cold/snow...we all would be torching. I think the nino will peak weak +0.9 to +1.0 ONI .....sometime in djf.......and if we get the plus PDO its going to be a great winter. I rather get this crappy pattern and warmer then avg weather out of the way now.

We got into this discussion last winter........im pretty sure everyone had a pretty good winter. Although it did end abruptly for you guys in the midwest, after a banner december and january. Oh and btw that guy from CT that was posting off the wall things, pretty much busted on everything he said last year.


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## tls22 (Sep 30, 2007)

As we enter early October......you can see what reliable long term modeling is suggesting here..This is a classic weak El Nino signature and should be prevalent (if we're lucky) throughout this winter......... +PNA PAC driven pattern with troughing over the Eastern US. You also can note that warmer animolies in the upper mid-west.


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## tls22 (Sep 30, 2007)

Much of the mid-west has been above normal this month...look at MINN 8-10 above normal

pretty dry also. This is a typical weak El Nino signature. If everything goes according to plan you'll see those anomalies start to shift even further to the west and northwest


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## hydro_37 (Sep 10, 2006)

Our summer was very wet and cold. Now we are getting warm weather but no rain.
Perfect fall weather....actually it has been more like summer weather the last 3 weeks.


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## 2COR517 (Oct 23, 2008)

hydro_37;808940 said:


> Our summer was very wet and cold. Now we are getting warm weather but no rain.
> Perfect fall weather....actually it has been more like summer weather the last 3 weeks.


Exact same here


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## broncscott (Dec 9, 2007)

Her in Cincinnati Snow Day predicted the few snows we had a week in advance and even when National weather called for clear skys. Thanks Craig.


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## gkm (Nov 6, 2004)

tls22;808897 said:


> Much of the mid-west has been above normal this month...look at MINN 8-10 above normal
> 
> pretty dry also. This is a typical weak El Nino signature. If everything goes according to plan you'll see those anomalies start to shift even further to the west and northwest


hey tim, always amazed with your level of weather info.........


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## tls22 (Sep 30, 2007)

gkm;809321 said:


> hey tim, always amazed with your level of weather info.........


Thankyou...thats very kind of you. If anyone needs cheap software i think there is a thread about it on this board


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## Mark Oomkes (Dec 10, 2000)

tls22;808863 said:


> I really dont know where you get ur information from...since when do they rate El nino's off normal bases? They are classified as weak,moderate, and strong. You sound like a person that does not really buy into a nino effecting the pattern that much,i could see why you feel that way. You live next to a big body of water that is prob going to give you more then half your seasonal snowfall every winter. 97-98 that el nino was so strong pretty much everyone torch all winter long.......it effected the pattern down stream so much, it f'ed us all. Our last el nino...which was moderate was in 2006-2007....a very back loaded winter. After a early season snowstorm in the mid west......December was crap......after the turn of the year things started to pick up. As of right now you can see the upper midwest has been warmer then avg for the last few weeks....i believe Duluth is plus 8 for the month...and the cold departures are down south where then been getting all the rain with the cut-off low. If this was January the pattern would suck for cold/snow...we all would be torching. I think the nino will peak weak +0.9 to +1.0 ONI .....sometime in djf.......and if we get the plus PDO its going to be a great winter. I rather get this crappy pattern and warmer then avg weather out of the way now.
> 
> We got into this discussion last winter........im pretty sure everyone had a pretty good winter. Although it did end abruptly for you guys in the midwest, after a banner december and january. Oh and btw that guy from CT that was posting off the wall things, pretty much busted on everything he said last year.


What I meant is that the El Nino is 1/10 of a degree above average, making it a very, very, very weak El Nino, if even that.

Allegedly we had an El Nino last year as well, and we got pounded.

Allegedly El Nino gives us warmer, drier winters. We've had 3 or 4 above average winters in a row. 1 out of the last 6 has been below average.

Never said or implied that I don't buy into it, just that the weather 'gurus' blow it so far out of proportion and don't really tell the entire story--that is that the El Nino is so very weak this year that it's really insignificant.


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## tls22 (Sep 30, 2007)

Mark Oomkes;809390 said:


> What I meant is that the El Nino is 1/10 of a degree above average, making it a very, very, very weak El Nino, if even that.
> 
> Allegedly we had an El Nino last year as well, and we got pounded.
> 
> ...


Oh im sorry mark......i read your post wrong....... You are correct about the nino being very weak....its pretty much nothing...last year was a la nina....yet your area is on a very good streak.....2 banner winters in a row. Hope you get another good year. Long-range forecasting is like flipping a coin, sometimes it seems like tomorrows forecast is like flipping a coin. Sorry about the miss-read


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## Mark Oomkes (Dec 10, 2000)

tls22;809392 said:


> Oh im sorry mark......i read your post wrong....... You are correct about the nino being very weak....its pretty much nothing...last year was a la nina....yet your area is on a very good streak.....2 banner winters in a row. Hope you get another good year. Long-range forecasting is like flipping a coin, sometimes it seems like tomorrows forecast is like flipping a coin. Sorry about the miss-read


No problem, it's all good.

Here's something else to think about:

http://www.cjonline.com/news/local/2009-09-20/earth_approaching_sunspot_records


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## Snow Day (Aug 23, 2008)

Hi guys, im glad you like the research I did. It is only one minor thing going into this winter. Other bigger issues are the lack of sun sots.


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