# Winter 2013-14



## FISHERBOY (Aug 13, 2007)

Well its that time of year again when we all start to think about winter. I'm not here to say its going to be a block buster winter. What I can share with all of you is current observations 
1.First lets start with the sun recently our sun has flipped poles, its normal, but one thing that has solar physicist very concerned is how sun spot activity has died off. There is direct correlation between low sun spots cold and snowy winters. Low solar activity allows the earth to build of O-3 or ozone in our ionosphere and stratosphere, and promotes high latitude blocking, and stratosphere warming events in the northern latitudes, when the stratosphere warms it expands pressing down on the troposphere which is where we live, so when the troposphere contracts you have cooling.
2 El nino/la nina, mostly likely were going to see a weak el nino
3.The PDO has popped warm which help promote a trough around Aleutian islands, a ridge on the west coast, and a trough on the east coast 
4.Snow growth in the arctic and siberia is above normal already
5. Covection around the date line , without it forget about any winters storms, everyone should read Northeast Snowstorms. 
6.Now this is very important anyone who puts out a winter forecast now is feeding you a line of B.S, wave lengths with our jet stream are so different in August than in the winter, I urge caution as we head into winter, it all depends on where the height anomalies set up , do they set up over north American,? europe? asia,? we just don't know yet.?????


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## grandview (Oct 9, 2005)

Everyone knows,just to look at a squirrels tail.if its' bushy its going to be a cold winter,or check your wife out.


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## peteo1 (Jul 4, 2011)

Caterpillars are a giveaway as well. More black = a tougher winter.


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## Plow horse (Oct 18, 2009)

*Bees nest*

I have been told that if big paper balls hornet nest are up high in a tree lots of SNOW, down low no snow. I have seen just one this year which is very odd, BUT it was up REAL High. Lets hope for snow.


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## SnowClear (Feb 24, 2012)

FISHERBOY;1642950 said:


> 1.First lets start with the sun recently our sun has flipped poles, its normal, but one thing that has solar physicist very concerned is how sun spot activity has died off. There is direct correlation between low sun spots cold and snowy winters. Low solar activity allows the earth to build of O-3 or ozone in our ionosphere and stratosphere, and promotes high latitude blocking, and stratosphere warming events in the northern latitudes, when the stratosphere warms it expands pressing down on the troposphere which is where we live, so when the troposphere contracts you have cooling.


Sounds like we're on the verge of another "Little Ice Age?"

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Little_Ice_Age


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## Young Pup (Aug 13, 2004)

check this out. Scroll up to the top.

http://kyweathercenter.com/?p=7431#comments


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## Dogplow Dodge (Jan 23, 2012)

You're all nuts...

Oak tree nuts... (aka acorns)..

I have a line of Eastern White Oak trees behind my home that are in the 70-80 year old range. Usually..... but not always.... when we get a MAJOR NUT FALL where the backyard gets covered in these acorns, the winter is usually a very productive one.... snow wise. It also means my dogs cannot go outside by themselves, as they try to gorge themselves on the acorns. One doctor visit and a pumping of a dog's stomach was enough for me...


So far this year, no nuts are a falling, so that means we're getting another mild winter.....

or I guess that jock strap I put on the tree is really working..


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## NickT (Feb 1, 2011)

Squirrels and nuts ..... Is this plowsite????? Lol


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## basher (Nov 13, 2004)

SnowClear;1644272 said:


> Sounds like we're on the verge of another "Little Ice Age?"
> 
> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Little_Ice_Age


The Maunder Minimum was a LONG period of flat sunspot activity, this period has really only started in the last 18 months. But the patterns are remarkably similar.

The earth has changed a little in the last 300 years, particularly the last 100 with the industrial and nuclear age.

One occurrence does not a pattern make.

It does however coincide with the screams of global warming which like all government programs means the opposite as global warming should lead to the next ice age:laughing:.


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## grandview (Oct 9, 2005)

basher;1644457 said:


> The Maunder Minimum was a LONG period of flat sunspot activity, this period has really only started in the last 18 months. But the patterns are remarkably similar.
> 
> The earth has changed a little in the last 300 years, particularly the last 100 with the industrial and nuclear age.
> 
> ...


you heard that on Modern Marvels,or the Day After Tomorrow movie!


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## basher (Nov 13, 2004)

grandview;1644493 said:


> you heard that on Modern Marvels,or the Day After Tomorrow movie!


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## grandview (Oct 9, 2005)

basher;1644494 said:


>


Don't forget the Spörer Minimum too. But with global warming cause the ice pack to melt will in the future cause the next ice age. And with colder temps and more snow, species will start to die off starting with Dodges with Curtis plows.:laughing:


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## basher (Nov 13, 2004)

grandview;1644503 said:


> Don't forget the Spörer Minimum too. But with global warming cause the ice pack to melt will in the future cause the next ice age. And with colder temps and more snow, species will start to die off starting with Dodges with Curtis plows.:laughing:


HELLO BEN:laughing::laughing:

But really the Spörer Minimum doesn't support a pattern. There was what, 100/150 years between them? What do they really know?

Much of that data is speculation based on computers model. The US is working with at most 120 years of National (and less global, though some areas have mulch more) data complied by the National Weather Service, not the most the most accurate of sources. There are monks in F(*&ing Cuba that have 500 years or better of hurricane studies they won't even consider> The Monks warned of the Galveston Hurricane (1901) but the NWS ignored it and 1000s died.

But I digress; my point being that IMO there is not enough actual data on the Sun, Earth and it's climatic changes to believe these signs ARE ushering in the next ice age, but just like God, alien life forms and the perfect woman I realize I'm to stupid to say for sure they don't exist.


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## grandview (Oct 9, 2005)

There could be a problem of not looking out far enough. Earth being in the Orion–Cygnus Arm has moved to different part so gravity will be pulling it from a different direction,so weather patterns will charge as it moves.


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## NickT (Feb 1, 2011)

I hope you guys have boots on because there is some world class, presidential, BS being slung around in this thread..... Yet I find myself completely entertained!!!!


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## basher (Nov 13, 2004)

grandview;1644546 said:


> There could be a problem of not looking out far enough. Earth being in the Orion-Cygnus Arm has moved to different part so gravity will be pulling it from a different direction,so weather patterns will charge as it moves.


Interesting, IMO if you try to extend Newtonian gravity to the whole universe, it doesn't work, because the sum of the potential due to every galaxy in the universe is of order 1 and the Newtonian approximation is not valid. However Mach's principle suggests that the larger the mass the greater the gravitational pull though the effects of motion are diminished (why we are not aware of the speed we are traveling as the earth spins.) However few believe Mach's principle was developed into a quantitative physical theory that would explain how the stars (of which our sun is one) can have such an effect.

It's an interesting time weather wise, the Sun has changed polarity, and we are leaving one of the closest rotations of the sun for generations (part of your shift in the local bubble.) Wonder what Mother nature has in store for us next?


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## SnowClear (Feb 24, 2012)

basher;1644535 said:


> HELLO BEN:laughing::laughing:
> 
> But really the Spörer Minimum doesn't support a pattern. There was what, 100/150 years between them? What do they really know?
> 
> ...


Well, there is the fact that sun spot data has been compiled by astronomers since the 1600's... I made my comment about a "Little Ice Age" out of coincidence of circumstances. You're right that this might be happenstance and not indicative or a long-term pattern. Regarding your statement of facts and data though. I've read several of the many research papers that purport climate change is occurring and the findings have significance (statistical significance).

Did you hear that the Farmer's Almanac is calling for a bitterly cold winter! Weather prediction based upon sun spot activity at its finest.


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## basher (Nov 13, 2004)

SnowClear;1644609 said:


> Well, there is the fact that sun spot data has been compiled by astronomers since the 1600's...
> 
> 100 or so years after the Sporer minimum.
> 
> ...


Yes I did and they are probably right in there as far as long term predictions goes, they are about 80% accurate over their history with IMO coincides with me, the TV weather and outperforms the NWS. I can show you winters where you would think they controlled the weather (mid Atlantic 94/95) they were so accurate and others where not so mulch.


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## SnowClear (Feb 24, 2012)

basher;1644617 said:


> Yes I did and they are probably right in there as far as long term predictions goes, they are about 80% accurate over their history with IMO coincides with me, the TV weather and outperforms the NWS. I can show you winters where you would think they controlled the weather (mid Atlantic 94/95) they were so accurate and others where not so mulch.


Here's what I've gathered from our discourse. You're a snow professional, an astronomer, a meteorologist, a farmer's almanac subscriber, and a historian. Nice combination.

P.s., Even though the academic community places next to no value on their predictions or claims of weather predicting precision, I rather enjoy reading the farmer's almanac.


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## basher (Nov 13, 2004)

SnowClear;1644634 said:


> Here's what I've gathered from our discourse. You're a snow professional, an astronomer, a meteorologist, a farmer's almanac subscriber, and a historian. Nice combination.
> 
> P.s., Even though the academic community places next to no value on their predictions or claims of weather predicting precision, I rather enjoy reading the farmer's almanac.


I like the Alminacs and surely don't dismiss them. That's as foolish as some of Kepler's concepts about the sun.


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## grandview (Oct 9, 2005)

After I compile all the know weather facts and shift through it. I've come to the conclusion I'm going to set my alarm for 1am from Nov1st to Apr 30th.


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## 1olddogtwo (Aug 6, 2007)

grandview;1644647 said:


> After I compile all the know weather facts and shift through it. I've come to the conclusion I'm going to set my alarm for 1am from Nov1st to Apr 30th.


Any idea on Miami, less,more,avg?


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## grandview (Oct 9, 2005)

1olddogtwo;1644653 said:


> Any idea on Miami, less,more,avg?


Bikinis will be less in the South beach area in the winter and turn to more coverage in the winter closer to the northern boarder of Florida.


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## BC Handyman (Dec 15, 2010)

grandview;1644647 said:


> After I compile all the know weather facts and shift through it. I've come to the conclusion I'm going to set my alarm for 1am from Nov1st to Apr 30th.


What a coincidence, I bet that is your seasonal contract dates


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## Plow horse (Oct 18, 2009)

*To funny*

You all are to FUNNY! BUT as a woman Mother nature is FICKLE. " notice how good I am being"? SO we can only GUESS at what the future brings and hope for the best, Now Duck!
We have been having these rain storms that are dropping 3" - 5" - 8" sometimes in 3 to 4 hrs, "talk about a WHITE out"! if it were snow.
Anybody ever see 3' to 5' of snow come down in 4 hrs??? Not " inches but' feet.:laughing:


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## grandview (Oct 9, 2005)

Plow horse;1645675 said:


> You all are to FUNNY! BUT as a woman Mother nature is FICKLE. " notice how good I am being"? SO we can only GUESS at what the future brings and hope for the best, Now Duck!
> We have been having these rain storms that are dropping 3" - 5" - 8" sometimes in 3 to 4 hrs, "talk about a WHITE out"! if it were snow.
> Anybody ever see 3' to 5' of snow come down in 4 hrs??? Not " inches but' feet.:laughing:


Hopefully she's won't be on the tag this winter. Yes I've seen snows like that


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## rjigto4oje (Oct 27, 2010)

SnowClear;1644609 said:


> Well, there is the fact that sun spot data has been compiled by astronomers since the 1600's... I made my comment about a "Little Ice Age" out of coincidence of circumstances. You're right that this might be happenstance and not indicative or a long-term pattern. Regarding your statement of facts and data though. I've read several of the many research papers that purport climate change is occurring and the findings have significance (statistical significance).
> 
> Did you hear that the Farmer's Almanac is calling for a bitterly cold winter! Weather prediction based upon sun spot activity at its finest.


I hope its colder than sh*T and a$$hole deep in snow it will keep the rifraf inside and well all be in the green


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## FISHERBOY (Aug 13, 2007)

quick update on things, snow growth has gone above normal in northern hemisphere, that's a good sign. Well this very interesting observation, the coldest of air is setting up over Asia, and so far not over north America, if these anomalies don't SET UP NORTH AMERICA OVER THE 4-6 WEEKS THEN ALL OF THOSE PEOPLE WHO PRDEICTED A COLD & SNOWY ARE GONNA BUST BADLY.


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## IDOCTORTREES (Dec 27, 2006)

We will be plowing Wednesday ... 6 to 12 here ! Check it out zip code 59718


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## Longae29 (Feb 15, 2008)

Had a nightmare last night, 1/2" fell...
all the salters aren't on yet, contracts aren't all signed (lot of verbals) people aren't shown new jobs it was bad. Just glad a guy from plowsite in Ohio let me know it was snowing there.....


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## Plow horse (Oct 18, 2009)

*Riff faff*

I can only imagine we are again in for a screwy season again, BUT I do like to here all the different ways to predict snowy winters.
The only thing with ass deep in snow is I see more riff raff out, especially 2 wd cars, like the old boat cady and lincs, Why they decide to venture out is almost as big a mystery as forecasting the weather. LET IT SNOW!ussmileyflag


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## rjigto4oje (Oct 27, 2010)

Plow horse;1648513 said:


> I can only imagine we are again in for a screwy season again, BUT I do like to here all the different ways to predict snowy winters.
> The only thing with ass deep in snow is I see more riff raff out, especially 2 wd cars, like the old boat cady and lincs, Why they decide to venture out is almost as big a mystery as forecasting the weather. LET IT SNOW!ussmileyflag


during a blizzard a few years back we didn't have one single shooting in Chicago the next day shooting over a snow blowerI'm predicting another Blizzard this year


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## KartAnimal29 (Nov 29, 2006)

grandview;1644647 said:


> After I compile all the know weather facts and shift through it. I've come to the conclusion I'm going to set my alarm for 1am from Nov1st to Apr 30th.


Don't go looking for any snow in the NE for Dec. , it's going to be warm


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## woodsman (Nov 18, 2008)

The elk herd in PA are as dark as ever stand b y for a beating.


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## CSLC (Jan 16, 2008)

So whats the new verdict for snow this year now that everyone has their predictions out?


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## FISHERBOY (Aug 13, 2007)

stilll to early to say right now


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## FISHERBOY (Aug 13, 2007)

Just a quick little update, the shift of the polar vortex is slowly shifting back toward north America, what we'll start to see is a broad trough starting to develop across the lower 48, later this month and into November.


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## KartAnimal29 (Nov 29, 2006)

I seen the other day the CFSV2 is now showing Cold for Dec now


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## jimmyzlc (Feb 13, 2008)

Check this out.

http://westernusawx.info/forums/uploads/monthly_09_2013/post-2499-0-98778800-1379386807_thumb.png


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## KartAnimal29 (Nov 29, 2006)

CPC for October http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/ustmp2m_Seas2.html


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## FISHERBOY (Aug 13, 2007)

WINTER FORECAST FROM www.nynjpaweather.com , prepare for a lot of reading


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## FISHERBOY (Aug 13, 2007)

Just a quick update, mostly for guys who plow on the east coast, currently the AO & NAO are strongly positive, and it looks to remain that way through November 15, and could even be longer, so mild conditions will persist here on the east coast.


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