# winter outlook 2011-12



## FISHERBOY (Aug 13, 2007)

Winter Forecast Overview:
A Cold and Snowy Season Ahead
November 2011 Forecast
Both December’s temperature and snowfall patterns will likely have a classic
La Niña appearance. The coldest temperature anomalies of November
should shift from the mid-Atlantic and Tennessee Valley northward towards
the Great Lakes and Upper Plains. Regionally, this puts most places
near to slightly below normal for the month.
At this juncture, the overall pattern does not favor major coastal storms in
December. While a surprise cannot be ruled out, the pattern is supportive
of Alberta Clippers and relatively weak inland storms. Despite the lack of
a major storm, it is important to note that December should be a very busy
month with a double-digit number of winter events possible. This should
lead to at least average snowfall for most of New Jersey and coastal New
York, with snowfall rising to well above normal levels further inland into
Pennsylvania, particularly in the higher elevations.
December 2011 Forecast
January probably turns out to the be the coldest month of the season nationally,
with the focus of the cold in the western half of the country. However,
that will be on average. Wild temperature swings are likely during the
month, even well into the upper Plains and northern New England. Early
indications point to a New Years cold outbreak, and one again late in the
month.
The active pattern from December is likely to carry over into much (if not
all) of January. Early on, there is an enhanced risk of mixed precipitation
events. But as the month continues, the storm threat shifts from smaller/
mixed systems to that of a major coastal storm. While odds favor a late
January threat for a significant coastal storm, it would not be surprising if it
held off until early February. If the storm is delayed, the southeastern extent
of the above average snowfall area will need to be shifted northwestward.
January 2012 Forecast
As referenced in the January forecast, there is lingering potential of a major
coastal snow storm in February. The threat should diminish during the
first week to ten days of the month. Thereafter, warmer weather gradually
tries to build in from the south. Meanwhile, the snowy pattern should
slowly ease.
Even though the snowy pattern should relax, snowfall is still poised to
average out above normal for much of northern Pennsylvania eastward
through New York City and Long Island, in part on the strength of the
early month chill. Extreme southern New Jersey and Pennsylvania, however
may struggle to see average snow given their increased exposure to
warm air pushing northward.
February 2012 Forecast
Page 7
WeatherWorks 2011 - 2012 Winter Forecast
Page 8
Overall, the final weeks of winter should feature less snow than normal and
above average temperatures. However, it is important to realize that these
are only six week forecasted averages. It should be noted that many La Niña
seasons feature a few March events, and sometimes even an April surprise.
That could very well be the case in Spring 2012, even though the over arching
pattern might not be the most favorable for a late snowfall.
While the signals are weak at best right now, the most favored time for late
season winter weather appears to be in the middle of March. If this colder
period does in fact come to fruition, it probably would not last for very
long. Furthermore, it would likely necessitate the below average snowfall
areas in the map to the left to be adjusted upward by one, or perhaps even
two categories.
Sounds good to me Thumbs Uppayup


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