# Winter Outlook



## alacweather (Sep 30, 2014)

Hi everyone, here are our winter outlooks for the season. Any questions, feel free to comment!

*Wisconsin/Minnesota/Iowa/N. Illinois: *http://wxc.alacweather.com/consulting/outlooks/Winter2014-15_WisconsinMinnesotaIowa.pdf

*Missouri/Southern Illinois: *http://wxc.alacweather.com/consulting/outlooks/Winter2014-15_MissouriIllinois.pdf

*Ohio/Indiana:*
http://wxc.alacweather.com/consulting/outlooks/Winter2014-15_OhioIndiana.pdf

If there's a region we didn't cover and you have a question, feel free to post it too . Get ready for a cold one!


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## Mark Oomkes (Dec 10, 2000)

Michigan???


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## LapeerLandscape (Dec 29, 2012)

They cant predict the weather for Michigan.


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## peteo1 (Jul 4, 2011)

Pennsylvania?


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## alacweather (Sep 30, 2014)

Mark Oomkes;1868630 said:


> Michigan???


Southern Michigan would follow the trends of Ohio/Indiana outlook, with somewhat below normal temperatures and precipitation. However, areas that experience lake effect snow (especially the UP) should see above normal snowfall.


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## alacweather (Sep 30, 2014)

peteo1;1868727 said:


> Pennsylvania?


Pennsylvania (especially western and central sections) will likely see above normal snowfall.


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## Mark Oomkes (Dec 10, 2000)

alacweather;1868737 said:


> Southern Michigan would follow the trends of Ohio/Indiana outlook, with somewhat below normal temperatures and precipitation. However, areas that experience lake effect snow (especially the UP) should see above normal snowfall.


Ok, but you do understand that the western third or so of the lower peninsula is subject to lake effect as well, right?


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## TMLGC (Sep 22, 2013)

Southern Maine please??


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## alacweather (Sep 30, 2014)

Mark Oomkes;1868766 said:


> Ok, but you do understand that the western third or so of the lower peninsula is subject to lake effect as well, right?


Yes, though not as significant as the UP. We have many clients in southeast WI which sees lake effect similar to the lower western MI (other side of the lake). Despite that lake effect potential, would still expect below normal snowfall in lower western MI.

Speaking of lake effect, it is very difficult to account for lake effect snow in these type of outlooks as it is a different type of forecasting than a cyclonic storm system. Long term models cannot grasp lake effect events, as these are often only visible a few days in advance.

Hopefully that helps.


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## alacweather (Sep 30, 2014)

TMLGC;1868770 said:


> Southern Maine please??


Potential for significantly above normal snowfall this winter in Maine.


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## Mark Oomkes (Dec 10, 2000)

alacweather;1868863 said:


> Yes, though not as significant as the UP. We have many clients in southeast WI which sees lake effect similar to the lower western MI (other side of the lake). Despite that lake effect potential, would still expect below normal snowfall in lower western MI.
> 
> Speaking of lake effect, it is very difficult to account for lake effect snow in these type of outlooks as it is a different type of forecasting than a cyclonic storm system. Long term models cannot grasp lake effect events, as these are often only visible a few days in advance.
> 
> Hopefully that helps.


Southeast Wisconsin really receives as much lake effect as Western Michigan?

Care to back that statement up?

Strange that most are saying as cold if not colder than last year, as well as above average snowfall but not as much as last year.


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## alacweather (Sep 30, 2014)

SE WI does not receive as much lake effect as western lower MI being on the west side of the lake (systems move west to east). Sorry if that was confusing in the last post. 

The point was the events are very similar in nature between SE WI and WRN MI when they occur. Lake effect occurs more frequently in WRN MI than SE WI spots. ~120 inches reported last season in some spots in W MI with ~80 inches in SE WI lake effect spots. What is interesting is when you go not too far from the lake and suddenly you can see totals drop significantly. In Milwaukee county last year one location had a total of 80, while another spot a little further inland had only 40 inches. 

Yes, we are predicting temperatures country wide well below normal. Generally if you look at all the outlooks we posted and piece them together there is a swath of normal to above normal snowfall in a few spots from Missouri to southern Ohio to Maine. The rest of the US will see rather below normal totals, especially the upper Midwest. We'll try to put together a graphical map next week.

-MSS


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## allseasons87 (Nov 29, 2011)

Mark Oomkes;1868893 said:


> Southeast Wisconsin really receives as much lake effect as Western Michigan?
> 
> Care to back that statement up?
> 
> Strange that most are saying as cold if not colder than last year, as well as above average snowfall but not as much as last year.


That's what I've been reading


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## TheXpress2002 (Oct 9, 2007)

Seems to be following exactly what NOAA posted with their outlook...

Yes it may be a weak El Nino but there are many other factors besides basing a forecast on just this alone. We have not broken the active pattern with below average temps all year, the likely hood of just flipping the switch and shutting off the precip is unlikely.


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## Citytow (Sep 21, 2014)

what other career besides a meteorologist can you be so wrong , fail and still continue to get a paycheck and keep your job ?


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## BUFF (Dec 24, 2009)

Front Range in Northern Colorado? Thumbs Up


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## TMLGC (Sep 22, 2013)

alacweather;1868866 said:


> Potential for significantly above normal snowfall this winter in Maine.


Thanks and I hope your correct! Almost all models are saying above average precip, yet some are saying it will be rain not snow.


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## Mark Oomkes (Dec 10, 2000)

BUFF;1868945 said:


> Front Range in Northern Colorado? Thumbs Up


Go hit an elk.


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## hellion (Aug 8, 2011)

Citytow;1868934 said:


> what other career besides a meteorologist can you be so wrong , fail and still continue to get a paycheck and keep your job ?


Politician


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## BUFF (Dec 24, 2009)

Mark Oomkes;1868962 said:


> Go hit an elk.


It's bound to happen....... Then it's going to the freezer.


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## Mr.Markus (Jan 7, 2010)

hellion;1868967 said:


> Politician


PS troll...


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## info4tim (Oct 27, 2013)

alacweather;1868586 said:


> Hi everyone, here are our winter outlooks for the season. Any questions, feel free to comment!
> 
> *Wisconsin/Minnesota/Iowa/N. Illinois: *http://wxc.alacweather.com/consulting/outlooks/Winter2014-15_WisconsinMinnesotaIowa.pdf
> 
> ...


Central NJ pls!?


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## Mark Oomkes (Dec 10, 2000)

So, any update on the guess for West Michigan's winter outlook?

20-30 degrees below normal. 

We're way over 20" which is FAR above normal. 

I know, it's early. But we're somewhere around 6-7 pushes already with another tonight.


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## Mark Oomkes (Dec 10, 2000)

http://woodtv.com/2014/11/20/4th-snowiest-nov-in-grand-rapids-so-far/

Hmmmm

The 100 year average is aboot 75". 10 year average is aboot 85". So that puts us at 36 and 31% of average, respectively.

And winter is a month off.

The lowest amount on record is 36".

Anybody care to wager that we're going to be below normal?


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## BUFF (Dec 24, 2009)

Mark Oomkes;1876017 said:


> http://woodtv.com/2014/11/20/4th-snowiest-nov-in-grand-rapids-so-far/
> 
> Hmmmm
> 
> ...


Oh quit being a panty waist, I talked to my buddy up by Greenville and he says it's just normal Michigan weather.....


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## Mark Oomkes (Dec 10, 2000)

BUFF;1876149 said:


> Oh quit being a panty waist, I talked to my buddy up by Greenville and he says it's just normal Michigan weather.....


Your buddy knows not what he speaks of:

http://woodtv.com/2014/11/20/4th-snowiest-nov-in-grand-rapids-so-far/

If this was December\January\February, sure, I can understand.

But it isn't even Thanksgiving yet.


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## BUFF (Dec 24, 2009)

Mark Oomkes;1876541 said:


> Your buddy knows not what he speaks of:
> 
> http://woodtv.com/2014/11/20/4th-snowiest-nov-in-grand-rapids-so-far/
> 
> ...


He did say GR did have more....


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## Mark Oomkes (Dec 10, 2000)

BUFF;1876594 said:


> He did say GR did have more....


Lol........


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## Mark Oomkes (Dec 10, 2000)

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/536961801096007681


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## BUFF (Dec 24, 2009)

Mark Oomkes;1881884 said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/536961801096007681


It's all lies and fables.
Was suppose to get 3" last night, not even close........................


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## Mark Oomkes (Dec 10, 2000)

You may want to give Extenze a try.


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## BUFF (Dec 24, 2009)

Mark Oomkes;1882092 said:


> You may want to give Extenze a try.


Thanks for the "heads up".......


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## Mark Oomkes (Dec 10, 2000)

BUFF;1882128 said:


> Thanks for the "heads up".......


:laughing::laughing::laughing:


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## hellion (Aug 8, 2011)

Mark Oomkes;1876017 said:


> http://woodtv.com/2014/11/20/4th-snowiest-nov-in-grand-rapids-so-far/
> 
> Hmmmm
> 
> ...


Keep quiet! ! Your blowing up the global warming truthers


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