# NE Jersey/ SE NY



## JPMAKO (Dec 10, 2003)

Since these are the primary area's that I cover and I am bored as hell with the lack of Snow, I thought I would start posting some predictions for what is left of this winter season!
If you look at the maps below you can distinguish precip intensity by using the color chart on the left hand side. Look for the 0 line which is blue and that will give a pretty good location of the freezing line. If it is below freezing in your area you can take the precip amount and multiply by 10 to get a general frozen precip forecast using 10:1 snow ratios.

For the next storm which is to take place around Friday- Saturday of this week we will see mostly rain/freezing rain but the forecast models are hinting at a secondary low developing which could bring some ice accumulations to the area on the backside of the storm unfortunately it will most likely happen after the bulk of the precip is past us.:crying:

There then will be another one passing by our area around next Tuesday.
as of right now it looks like we will be dealing with the same thing - Rain again possibly some snow mixing in but accumulations will be minimal.

The next shot at Snow looks to be around the 10th of February.
If it all comes together well we could be looking at a major snow event like at least 6-10 inches.

One other thing that we have going for us going into February is that the NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) is going negative.

We should all do the snow dance and hope that something comes of at least one of these storms.

That's it for now I will update periodically and post some snow maps...

Jason


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## tls22 (Sep 30, 2007)

nice weather discussion, i have a site for surface temps if your interested! Yeah the preciep on gfs occurs in 6 hr intervals, so that preciep might have fallen before we got below frz! The week of feb 10th looks like our best shot for snow!


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## linycctitan (Aug 13, 2007)

I hope that you're right about Feb 10th, I guess we'll see if the landscaping plowguy turned weatherman is better than the "pro's"!!lol If you are, you're hired!!!


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## mkwl (Jan 21, 2005)

I hope we really get nailed with that storm on the 10th! I'll take as much snow as we can get between now and the second week in March! After that, it's time for spring cleanups  . Too bad January was a dead month!:realmad::crying:


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## FISHERBOY (Aug 13, 2007)

*We need snow*

First i like to say that was a great post, very informative, but the storm on the 10th has gone from GFS model it backed away from it :crying:. Thats from the mad man post today, but i hope it comes back for all of us. Also i heard on elliot abrams blog that the second half of february could be colder than average, of course it didn't menchion snow, 
I remember from Accu-weather winter outlook saying March was going to be bad for the northeast so will just hav to see. Plenty of winter left.payup

P.S. Why aren't my smiles working on my computer i was wondering if anyone knows


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## tls22 (Sep 30, 2007)

FISHERBOY;502693 said:


> First i like to say that was a great post, very informative, but the storm on the 10th has gone from GFS model it backed away from it :crying:. Thats from the mad man post today, but i hope it comes back for all of us. Also i heard on elliot abrams blog that the second half of february could be colder than average, of course it didn't menchion snow,
> I remember from Accu-weather winter outlook saying March was going to be bad for the northeast so will just hav to see. Plenty of winter left.payup
> 
> P.S. Why aren't my smiles working on my computer i was wondering if anyone knows


Yes i agree with that...the new gfs shows a few colds days at the end of next week! The storm is gone from the maps, and zonal flow seems to take over at months end! I will not give up yet, but if its not going to snow let the warm weather start! I want to get back to cutting and clean-ups


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## JPMAKO (Dec 10, 2003)

The first Storm that I posted about is going to take place Friday - Saturday as of right now one of the forecast models has moved the freezing line about 50 miles south.
I still believe that this will be mostly a rain event with some frozen precip on the back end as cold air will move in at the end. We Might get lucky and have a couple of inches of snow and or sleet with this one on the back end. At the very least some salting

Here is the lastest model run for the NAM the GFS comes out around 11:00 tonight I will make a Snow map tomorrow for this storm


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## FISHERBOY (Aug 13, 2007)

*Storm Is Back For The 10th*

The storm is back on the models for the 10 payup ,i hope it stays on and we get a good snow fall


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## JeepPlow18 (Sep 4, 2006)

Thats the only hope we have in the next week and a half:crying:


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## Quality SR (Oct 25, 2006)

They said on the news today that this was the first snowless January in 75 years. 
Before that there was another one in 1850's. Hopefully these next 2 months are good.


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## JeepPlow18 (Sep 4, 2006)

Yea we can only hope at this point.


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## ManorLandscape8 (Nov 12, 2004)

to me you do just as good as a job as those dirtbag tv weathermen. We got some icing across the river in westchester county.


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## JeepPlow18 (Sep 4, 2006)

Northern Sussex county has as much as an inch of ice all over everything. I got about a quarter of an inch still was hell with winds up to 30 M.P.H. Several trees started to snap luckily it got warmer and started to downpour.


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## mkwl (Jan 21, 2005)

Storm on the 10th is gone- temps are supposed to be in the upper 40's and lower 50's as far as the forecast on accuweather goes- guess I'll start gearing up for spring cleanups.:crying:


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## JeepPlow18 (Sep 4, 2006)

mkwl;506232 said:


> Storm on the 10th is gone- temps are supposed to be in the upper 40's and lower 50's as far as the forecast on accuweather goes- guess I'll start gearing up for spring cleanups.:crying:


Yea I was just looking at that. I cant believe it, warm and rain for the next two weeks:crying: Lets count on the fact that accuweather is always wrong that far in advance, so it could go the other way, who knows we will just have to wait.


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## JPMAKO (Dec 10, 2003)

mkwl;506232 said:


> Storm on the 10th is gone- temps are supposed to be in the upper 40's and lower 50's as far as the forecast on accuweather goes- guess I'll start gearing up for spring cleanups.:crying:


Matt,

I am ready for SCU's although it would be nice to get some snow first.payup, I am going to go out next week and do some of my larger properties in hopes of making the SCU easier. At the very least it will make my guys happy since we have not worked in a while other than splitting firewood. Hopefully if we go blow off whatever has fallen in the last month or so we can then just use the JRCO rakes and vacuum these lawns up in the spring to make things go a little faster. I have some larger installs planned for late spring so it would be nice to finish clean-ups early.

Jason


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## mkwl (Jan 21, 2005)

JPMAKO;506285 said:


> Matt,
> 
> I am ready for SCU's although it would be nice to get some snow first.payup, I am going to go out next week and do some of my larger properties in hopes of making the SCU easier. At the very least it will make my guys happy since we have not worked in a while other than splitting firewood. Hopefully if we go blow off whatever has fallen in the last month or so we can then just use the JRCO rakes and vacuum these lawns up in the spring to make things go a little faster. I have some larger installs planned for late spring so it would be nice to finish clean-ups early.
> 
> Jason


Jason-

Yeah, I'd really like to have at least one big (like 8-14") snowstorm before the season is over- can only hope!

I was out on my lawn today, and some other lawns yesterday giving estimates for cleanups and they were WET! It'll have to REALLY dry out before I'd put any blowers or mowers out on them- supposed to rain for most of this week so I have a feeling it'll be a while until I start with cleanups- probably the first weekend in March if we don't get any more snow- we'll see.

Matt


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## JPMAKO (Dec 10, 2003)

To all of you that have been following this thread I have two words - GEAR UP.
I am going to go out on a limb here and am going to say that we will have at least two yes (2) Plowable events by the 16th of February. At this time it is too early to tell how significant they will be but I say by Friday of this week make sure everything is ready to Rock

If I am wrong I will never post anything about the weather ever again
If I am right I want $50 from everyone reading this.payup

Jason


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## mkwl (Jan 21, 2005)

JPMAKO;507543 said:


> To all of you that have been following this thread I have two words - GEAR UP.
> I am going to go out on a limb here and am going to say that we will have at least two yes (2) Plowable events by the 16th of February. At this time it is too early to tell how significant they will be but I say by Friday of this week make sure everything is ready to Rock
> 
> If I am wrong I will never post anything about the weather ever again
> ...


Jason, I sure hope you're right!  I haven't had the plow on my truck since well before Christmas (except to move it around my driveway- just for fun- reminiscing about the snow lol). I'm sure hoping we get nailed for hte rest of February and the very beginning of March! IDK about the $50 though LOL

Matt

For everyone else- I agree- check over your stuff, make sure you're ready to plow- probability would say that we have a good chance of at least one more major snowfall before the season is over! Keep your fingers crossed!


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## mulcahy mowing (Jan 16, 2006)

Any chance of that getting this far north? se mass here


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## JPMAKO (Dec 10, 2003)

mkwl;507636 said:


> IDK about the $50 though LOL


Man $50 is too much for bringing us a storm? Alright since you live nearby $25 is good



mulcahy mowing;507647 said:


> Any chance of that getting this far north? se mass here


If I say yes do I get my $50? LOL
Actually you guys a little further north have a good chance of significant precip. This particular storm Sat- Sun is going to collide with a low off of the coast and strengthen.
From Mass on up to Maine you guys could see a Significant Storm. These types of storms are called Miller B's 
I have to go get one of the trucks Inspected when I return I will have a Snow Map.

Jason


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## JPMAKO (Dec 10, 2003)

It's looking like I was only 50% correct with my forecasting so I will stay on board and do it again. I am going to say again that Winter is NOT over yet and we are now trending into a colder/ stormier pattern. With the NAO going slightly negative and a couple of things in the works toward the end of next week, I think that Thursday through Monday are going to be very interesting to say the least. payup

Jason


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## LAB INC (Oct 19, 2006)

*The end of the week?*

Hey are you guys talking about the end of this week there is a chance?


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## JPMAKO (Dec 10, 2003)

Yes the end of this week.


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## JPMAKO (Dec 10, 2003)

JPMAKO;519282 said:


> Yes the end of this week.


Things are looking good as of now for this week.
Wednesday we are forecast to have a small clipper system with QPF values of .10 to .20 which could equate to 2-4 inches because of the higher snow ratios involved with polar air.

Friday through Sunday - Big Storm looking good

Here is the forecast from the National Weather Service

Today
Flurries

Hi 42°F Tonight

Flurries

Lo 22°F Wednesday

Chance
Snow
Hi 35°F Wednesday
Night

Slight Chc
Snow
Lo 17°F Thursday

Sunny

Hi 34°F Thursday
Night

Chance
Snow
Lo 19°F Friday

Snow
Likely
Hi 31°F Friday
Night

Snow
Likely
Lo 23°F Saturday

Chance
Rain/Snow
Hi 38°F


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## ManorLandscape8 (Nov 12, 2004)

i think our chances are looking good for friday for a plowable event but i dont know about this clipper


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## mkwl (Jan 21, 2005)

We're looking good so far for plowing on Friday-Friday night- saying 3-6" now- keep your fingers crossed!


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## JPMAKO (Dec 10, 2003)

Here is my preliminary Snow Map
Things may change over the next couple of hours especially for those north and south of my area.


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## JPMAKO (Dec 10, 2003)

*Forecast Discussion*

I am thinking at this point that these are going to be the totals for the following areas
Take into account that this is a very difficult storm to forecast as all of the models are different and this storm is going to be a prolonged event with many waves of precipitation
Some areas south east of I-95 will see some mixing with freezing rain(ZR) for about two hours but from NYC north and west (inland areas) will see predominately snow.

NW Jersey/ PA 7"- 11" Locally Higher amounts possible
NE Jersey Bergen County 7" - 11" Locally higher amounts possible
Central Jersey 3" - 6" Snow to ZR 
SE NY Rockland/ Westchester areas 7" - 11" Locally Higher amounts possible 
NYC/ Long Island 3" - 5" possibly mixing with ZR for a couple of hours then back to snow

Jason


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## ManorLandscape8 (Nov 12, 2004)

i agree for us north of the city. GFS model is showing us at around 12" so i think 6-12 is a good bet north of 287


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## ManorLandscape8 (Nov 12, 2004)

we are under a winter storm warning for 4-8" plus .25" of ice. Good luck tomorrow guys.payup


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## addicted (Dec 13, 2005)

Everyone keep the plows OFF and do the snow dance!!!! Winter might actually be showing up:yow!ayup


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## linycctitan (Aug 13, 2007)

Hope the prep time was worth it this time!!!!


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## JeepPlow18 (Sep 4, 2006)

Hey JPMAKO, I just looked at the forecast for friday-friday night and they are calling for snow with that clipper. Are you going to post totals. I really like your maps. Right now its looking good for north Jersey at least 1-3 inches:bluebouncpayup


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