# EARLY IDEAS ABOUT WINTER 2021-22 IN THE EASTERN US



## wxdavid (Dec 22, 2015)

*and yes it looks VERY different from the last 3 winters...*

https://medium.com/-/f496494501f6


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## BossPlow2010 (Sep 29, 2010)

Can you post the cliff notes version?


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## Mike_PS (Feb 28, 2005)

let's try to stick to the discussion, please


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## Kevin_NJ (Jul 24, 2003)

Sorry MJD, BP asked for the cliff notes version, I replied what little I got out of his clickbait post.


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## Hydromaster (Jun 11, 2018)

From his link
“Making predictions about the winter in mid September is arguably the stupidest thing that anybody could ever do in the field of meteorology and seasonal forecasting.”

I agree.

Ps 
But don’t let my observation deter you. 
stick around I like a good weather guesser.


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## wxdavid (Dec 22, 2015)

Hydromaster said:


> From his link
> "Making predictions about the winter in mid September is arguably the stupidest thing that anybody could ever do in the field of meteorology and seasonal forecasting."
> 
> I agree.
> ...


i NEVER GUESS...

if I dont know I say I don't know


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## Hydromaster (Jun 11, 2018)

I thought you made predictions?


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## BossPlow2010 (Sep 29, 2010)

wxdavid said:


> i NEVER GUESS...
> 
> if I dont know I say I don't know


You seem agitated? Is something bothering you?


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## BossPlow2010 (Sep 29, 2010)

Hey someone hihacked your page and guessed for you…


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## wxdavid (Dec 22, 2015)

BossPlow2010 said:


> You seem agitated? Is something bothering you?


 No.... I dont guess


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## wxdavid (Dec 22, 2015)

BossPlow2010 said:


> Hey someone hihacked your page and guessed for you…
> View attachment 220967


 that clever... but its not the same thing genius


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## wxdavid (Dec 22, 2015)

* 1ST TRUE BLAST OF CHILLY AIR OF THE SEASON MIN TEMPS 
SEPT 23 *which will move into the East coast SEPT 24-26

2nd image is * MIN TEMPS FOR SEPT 29*


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## Mark Oomkes (Dec 10, 2000)

wxdavid said:


> that clever... but its not the same thing genius


Sew mulch anger...


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## Hydromaster (Jun 11, 2018)

This week across North America the predicted pattern is ridging/positive geopotential height anomalies coupled with normal to above normal temperatures across western North America and Eastern Canada with troughing/negative geopotential height anomalies coupled with normal to below temperatures across the Eastern United States (US). However, for the following week geopotential heights are predicted to rise in the Gulf of Alaska forcing troughing/negative geopotential height anomalies coupled with normal to below temperatures first in Western Canada and then in the Central US while ridging/positive geopotential height anomalies coupled with normal to above normal temperatures overspread the west and east coasts of North America.

You mean, a return to avg temps.


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## jonniesmooth (Dec 5, 2008)

BossPlow2010 said:


> Hey someone hihacked your page and guessed for you…
> View attachment 220967


They aren't going to have snow till February?


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## jonniesmooth (Dec 5, 2008)

Hydromaster said:


> This week across North America the predicted pattern is ridging/positive geopotential height anomalies coupled with normal to above normal temperatures across western North America and Eastern Canada with troughing/negative geopotential height anomalies coupled with normal to below temperatures across the Eastern United States (US). However, for the following week geopotential heights are predicted to rise in the Gulf of Alaska forcing troughing/negative geopotential height anomalies coupled with normal to below temperatures first in Western Canada and then in the Central US while ridging/positive geopotential height anomalies coupled with normal to above normal temperatures overspread the west and east coasts of North America.
> 
> You mean, a return to avg temps.


I won't even pretend to understand what you said here. But I know the forecast for today, when I went to bed at 9 last night was for a possibility of freezing rain this afternoon.
It's almost 2pm as I type this. It's rained pretty good most of the day, but no freezing precipitation.


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## BUFF (Dec 24, 2009)

A little white stuff last night


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## LapeerLandscape (Dec 29, 2012)

Hydromaster said:


> This week across North America the predicted pattern is ridging/positive geopotential height anomalies coupled with normal to above normal temperatures across western North America and Eastern Canada with troughing/negative geopotential height anomalies coupled with normal to below temperatures across the Eastern United States (US). However, for the following week geopotential heights are predicted to rise in the Gulf of Alaska forcing troughing/negative geopotential height anomalies coupled with normal to below temperatures first in Western Canada and then in the Central US while ridging/positive geopotential height anomalies coupled with normal to above normal temperatures overspread the west and east coasts of North America.
> 
> You mean, a return to avg temps.


Are those the cliff notes


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## BossPlow2010 (Sep 29, 2010)

LapeerLandscape said:


> Are those the cliff notes


*Guess *so…


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## Hydromaster (Jun 11, 2018)

From the op's link


*WHY don't I care? Because as a person of science I am under no obligation to listen to Stupid people.*
But also…. their opinions have no education and no intelligence behind them. And here is the punch line boys and girls.

Your opinion - which of course you are entitled to - - also carries the same weight as the Hollywood star or the football player or the rapper or the NBA star."

WoW.

"Again without getting too technical,"
Gee, why dumb it down now?


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## stainlessman (Nov 1, 2011)

It was snowing on Mt Washington the other day and acorn that have dropped are ankle deep both signs of a hard cold winter. 
Or just read the scientific journal 'Old Farmers Almanac'....


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## Mark Oomkes (Dec 10, 2000)

What aboot the wooly bear caterpillars?


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## stainlessman (Nov 1, 2011)

Oh Crap I forgot about that. 
Yes definitely the Wooly Bugger. I actually saw one the other day. I think it was more black in the center then brown ends. Again a very very scientific measure of winter. 
I dated a lady from the mountians of NC for a while. Her family formula was count the number of foggy mornings in October. That was the number of snowstorms the mountains of North Carolina would get.


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## Hydromaster (Jun 11, 2018)

What are your views on climate change?


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## Mark Oomkes (Dec 10, 2000)

Hydromaster said:


> What are your views on climate change?


Dinosaurs say it doesn't happen.

And those glaciers that covered most of North America also disagree.


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## leolkfrm (Mar 11, 2010)

ground is pretty saturated, first cold snap will result in black ice, get your salters ready!


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## cwren2472 (Aug 15, 2014)

Mark Oomkes said:


> Dinosaurs say it doesn't happen.












*This poster has not actually spoken to any Dinosaurs*


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## Hydromaster (Jun 11, 2018)

cwren2472 said:


> *This poster has not actually spoken to any Dinosaurs*


I can get you Randel's number if you need it

I was asking about hurricanes because there's a lot of science that seems to be saying different things about the intensity and how often they occur


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## wxdavid (Dec 22, 2015)

Hydromaster said:


> What are your views on climate change?


The typical ignorant non science argument against global warming and climate change usually involves either Al Gore who of course is not a scientist…. or a reference to the fact that the earth and its past has been much warmer in much colder than it is now.

Both of those arguments are well non sequiturs and have nothing to do with the actual issue at hand.

One of the arguments being made about global warming is that it's become political. Yet the people making that argument always seem to cite Al Gore who is not a scientist. This makes no sense. If one s arguing that there should be more focus -- and I agree --then why do some talk about Al Gore?

Second…. It is a indisputable fact that the Earth has been substantially warmer and colder in its past. And that has nothing to do with what is going on now.

Let's use a basic high school analogy

A between 1939 and 1945 the years of World War II about 100 million people were killed total around the world.

B In the years from say 2004 to 2010 Millions of people are also suffering dying and being crippled in war.

C That does not mean World War II is still going on.

Likewise it is ridiculous to make the argument that because the Earth has been warmer in the past or colder in the past that it means the current change in the climate is all natural variability.


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## jonniesmooth (Dec 5, 2008)

Noted


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## Mark Oomkes (Dec 10, 2000)

In general or just AGW?


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## Hydromaster (Jun 11, 2018)

k

What are the Scientific causes of climate change?


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## jonniesmooth (Dec 5, 2008)

Hydromaster said:


> k
> 
> What are the Scientific causes of it?


George Saros and the CIA. And occasionally Bill Gates,when they need an IT guy


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## Hydromaster (Jun 11, 2018)

wxdavid said:


> The typical ignorant non science argument against global warming and climate change usually involves either Al Gore who of course is not a scientist…. or a reference to the fact that the earth and its past has been much warmer in much colder than it is now.
> 
> Both of those arguments are well non sequiturs and have nothing to do with the actual issue at hand.
> 
> ...


Your analogy is dramatically flawed.
It does nothing but attack the person asking the question and it does little to nothing to answer the question.

So I'll move on assuming you do not know.

Thank you

Ps 
nice edit, but a little too slow.


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## BUFF (Dec 24, 2009)

Hydromaster said:


> Your analogy is dramatically flawed.
> It does nothing but attack the person asking the question and it does little to nothing to answer the question.
> 
> So I'll move on assuming you do not know.
> ...


What aboot "D"


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## wxdavid (Dec 22, 2015)

Hydromaster said:


> Your analogy is dramatically flawed.
> It does nothing but attack the person asking the question and it does little to nothing to answer the question.
> 
> So I'll move on assuming you do not know.
> ...


 you claiming that my analogy is flawwd does PROVE that it iS flawed

its just you saying it is.

this may come as a shock but you saying XYZ is true does NOT make XYZ true.


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## Randall Ave (Oct 29, 2014)

Hydromaster said:


> I can get you Randel's number if you need it
> 
> I was asking about hurricanes because there's a lot of science that seems to be saying different things about the intensity and how often they occur


Hey now, don't get me involved in this. The Earth's been warming up for years so that must be why my beer ain't cold.


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## Hydromaster (Jun 11, 2018)

wxdavid said:


> you claiming that my analogy is flawwd does  PROVE that it iS flawed
> 
> its just you saying it is.
> 
> this may come as a shock but you saying XYZ is true does NOT make XYZ true.


I get it, it's like calling people morons, it doesn't really make it true.

Again, I guess,,,lol,,, you cannot answer any of my questions, so thank you for your time.


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## jomama45 (Dec 25, 2008)

wxdavid said:


> you claiming that my analogy is flawwd does PROVE that it iS flawed
> 
> its just you saying it is.
> 
> this may come as a shock but you saying XYZ is true does NOT make XYZ true.


I have no dog in this fight, but have you ever considered proof-reading your posts before submitting them? It would probably be a huge help if you want to be considered "the smartest person in the room ".......


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## BossPlow2010 (Sep 29, 2010)

wxdavid said:


> you claiming that my analogy is flawwd does PROVE that it iS flawed
> 
> its just you saying it is.
> 
> this may come as a shock but you saying XYZ is true does NOT make XYZ true.


Thank you, for the condescending lesson on deductive vs inductive reasoning.


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## Mark Oomkes (Dec 10, 2000)

wxdavid said:


> you claiming that my analogy is flawwd does PROVE that it iS flawed





jomama45 said:


> I have no dog in this fight, but have you ever considered proof-reading your posts before submitting them? It would probably be a huge help if you want to be considered "the smartest person in the room ".......


You mean because by missing one word, he totally blew the point he was trying to make?


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