# Next up - major snwostorm threat for east coast jan 10-11



## wxdavid (Dec 22, 2015)

** ALERT ** SNOWSTORM THREAT FOR EAST COAST -- from western NC into all of VA WVA MD DEL central/ eastern PA central eastern NY all of NJ CT into all of New England

I have been talking about this THREAT here and over on the website ...since December 28 and the model data this morning is quite strong that the first significant East Coast winter storm is going to develop January 11-12. We can say this with some confidence because the overall strong signals been given off by the atmospheric patterns on the weather models JAN 2 to JAN 15.

When all the four important atmospheric pattern indices or what we call 
Teleonnections are this strong ...it becomes easier to forecast significant winter storms and the weather models do a better job of detecting them especially beyond five are six days.

Keep in mind and not forecasting a specific temperature for specific location 6 days some now or 10 days some now. That sort of specific temperature forecasting is really not possible with any sort a reliability even though it's very popular to see the such temperatures on your smart phone weather Apps or on the various websites.

















All that being said let's be clear. * We are NOT yet forecasting East Coast winter storm for January 11 - 12. What we are saying is that the potential is very high because the atmospheric patterns / teleconnections are very strong and closely match the atmospheric of patterns that existed when we had other major East Coast winter storms.*

Of course it is reasonable to be somewhat skeptical as this is still 10 days away, But there are meteorologists that do study these patterns and do research on them ( I am one of them). Over the past 20 years in fact there been several important books and research papers and monographs on significant East Coast winter storms.

I know this kind of forecast is not going to show up on those silly weather smart phones Apps . And I know similar forecasts are not going to show up on TWC or Accuweather or some other website that you might go to. What we are talking here is cutting edge meteorology - it is what I do.

There are still of course a number of different possibilities here. This could be a snow to rain event on the coast and more snow inland and over the mountains ...OR this could be a mostly coastal event with the heaviest precipitation on the coastal areas. It is also possible that the main event might slide off the coast ...although I doubt that based on that I am seeing right now

Behind this Low is major league arctic outbreak


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## Randall Ave (Oct 29, 2014)

OK i'm hooked!


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## iceyman (Mar 1, 2007)

You certainly know how to get this board going


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## MajorDave (Feb 4, 2011)

Like bringing booze to an AA Meeting!!!


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## Randall Ave (Oct 29, 2014)

Heeey, I'll take another. Drink, and storm.


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## iceyman (Mar 1, 2007)

Rumor has it your calling for a Benchmark storm eh


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## MajorDave (Feb 4, 2011)

As long as it pounds NYC - I'll drink to that!


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## LwnmwrMan22 (Jan 20, 2005)

Are these the same forecast models that you came into the Minnesota weather thread with, ***BREAKING BREAKING LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOWING 18+" about 12 hours (not days) before the snow was supposed to hit?

The storm where the majority of my service area ended up with less than an inch? Where I had one other driver beside myself out of 7 working?


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## FordFisherman (Dec 5, 2007)

Hows that Rihanna song go? Under my umbrella ella ella hey hey...


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## pldann86 (Nov 13, 2008)

wxdavid;2085511 said:


> ** ALERT ** SNOWSTORM THREAT FOR EAST COAST -- from western NC into all of VA WVA MD DEL central/ eastern PA central eastern NY all of NJ CT into all of New England
> 
> I have been talking about this THREAT here and over on the website ...since December 28 and the model data this morning is quite strong that the first significant East Coast winter storm is going to develop January 11-12. We can say this with some confidence because the overall strong signals been given off by the atmospheric patterns on the weather models JAN 2 to JAN 15.
> 
> ...


DT is that you? https://www.facebook.com/WxRisk


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## JMHConstruction (Aug 22, 2011)

I think your models are a little on the extreme side. We did get a storm after your last weather thread, but not even close to what you indicated.


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## 1olddogtwo (Aug 6, 2007)

Their has been more then a few of these guys over the years here on PS.

I don't give much hope nor pay to much attention to them. It's all about the hype and ego-stoking for the most part.

I'll give him the benefit of being a stand up guy, or try anyways.


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## basher (Nov 13, 2004)

iceyman;2086400 said:


> Rumor has it your calling for a Benchmark storm eh


I think the kicker is right here.

_ We are NOT yet forecasting East Coast winter storm for January 11 - 12. What we are saying is that the potential is very high because the atmospheric patterns / teleconnections are very strong and closely match the atmospheric of patterns that existed when we had other major East Coast winter storms.
_


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## BUFF (Dec 24, 2009)

I use a weather rock, it's never wrong......


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## TheXpress2002 (Oct 9, 2007)

It will be an app runner.


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## AccuCon (Jan 31, 2013)

No there is definitely something coming...It really depends on the temps what that something is...I was checking the 18zGFS and the precipitation will def. be over the North East...Whether it falls as snow, rain, sleet, or a mix is going to depend on the temperatures...


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## 1olddogtwo (Aug 6, 2007)

AccuCon;2088151 said:


> No there is definitely something coming...It really depends on the temps what that something is...I was checking the 18zGFS and the precipitation will def. be over the North East...Whether it falls as snow, rain, sleet, or a mix is going to depend on the temperatures...


Really....temps you say, interesting.


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## AccuCon (Jan 31, 2013)

1olddogtwo;2088388 said:


> Really....temps you say, interesting.


I know....But more in how the cold settles in and the NAO going negative...Plus with the increased snow pack in Canada we may see the cold air stay and in that case we could be in for something...

It looks like the coming weekend and next week will be a very active one in regards to the weather...


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## Snow Commandor (Jan 30, 2011)

Weird wild stuff, I did not know what!


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## FordFisherman (Dec 5, 2007)

under my um ber ella ella ella hey hey hey 
this sucks


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## mkwl (Jan 21, 2005)

FordFisherman;2088892 said:


> under my um ber ella ella ella hey hey hey
> this sucks


Yes it does…. too cold to be able to do masonry then warm and rains… :crying:


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## Evil Diesel (Nov 9, 2011)

Don't worry. After this rain storm comes the cold and snow!!!!


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## wxdavid (Dec 22, 2015)

*Update on jan 1011- eastern us low*

The next system which poses a significant weather threat for the eastern third of the country is the development of a LOW pressure area over AL as the next strong arctic cold front moves from the Midwest to the East coast January 10. Earlier it was believed that the Arctic cold front would reach the East Coast on January 10 and the LOW pressure area would develop over AL / GA on the 11th. Thus... when the LOW would come up the coast on the morning of the 11th... the temperatures would be cold enough to support snow over I-95 big cities.

However that is not going to be the case. Instead the LOW is going to develop on the 10th **BEFORE ** the Arctic cold front reaches the East Coast. As a result all of the East Coast ... from Boston into all of NC... will see rain from this event. With the Arctic cold front driving from West to East ...temperatures will be cold enough for snow and possibly significant snowfall ...over portions of central TN much of KY eastern half of IND most of OH on Sunday morning January 10. By the evening of the 10th the LOW will be located over Philly and the cold air will be drawn into the system as intensifies. As a result ...the rain COULD change to snow for several hours over the western third of VA ... Wva.. much of central eastern PA much of central and western NY State and northern New England.









By the morning of January 11 the LOW pressure area will be in the Gulf of Maine and the rain will turn to snow even along the coastal areas of New England. Areas in and central and northern New England could see several inches as well as eastern NY State.

Behind this LOW... the Arctic front sweeps an and temperatures collapse. They will likely be colder than the morning Min temperatures we saw today January 5. For example the temperatures are likely to be as low as -15 of -25F over portions of the Dakotas and Minnesota on the morning of January 11 and 12. This cold air will sweep eastward and dominate the weather pattern from January 12-17

In the meantime take a look to what Is going on in California with all this heavy rains and mountain snows. This is the southern portion of the Jetstream which is very powerful or enhanced because of the El Nino. A series of powerful southern systems will be crashing into California over the next week and all weather models show a major piece of energy moving into Texas and the Delta region by January 15 while the Midwest and the East Coast is covered in Arctic air. The potential exists for significant winter storm over the middle Atlantic and New England states during Martin Luther king weekend probably on the 17th and 18th to January.


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## GMCHD plower (Nov 27, 2009)

So will Maine be included in the rain switching to snow? Or will we be more of a mix?


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## LwnmwrMan22 (Jan 20, 2005)

wxdavid;2089044 said:


> The next system which poses a significant weather threat for the eastern third of the country is the development of a LOW pressure area over AL as the next strong arctic cold front moves from the Midwest to the East coast January 10. Earlier it was believed that the Arctic cold front would reach the East Coast on January 10 and the LOW pressure area would develop over AL / GA on the 11th. Thus... when the LOW would come up the coast on the morning of the 11th... the temperatures would be cold enough to support snow over I-95 big cities.
> 
> However that is not going to be the case. Instead the LOW is going to develop on the 10th **BEFORE ** the Arctic cold front reaches the East Coast. As a result all of the East Coast ... from Boston into all of NC... will see rain from this event. With the Arctic cold front driving from West to East ...temperatures will be cold enough for snow and possibly significant snowfall ...over portions of central TN much of KY eastern half of IND most of OH on Sunday morning January 10. By the evening of the 10th the LOW will be located over Philly and the cold air will be drawn into the system as intensifies. As a result ...the rain COULD change to snow for several hours over the western third of VA ... Wva.. much of central eastern PA much of central and western NY State and northern New England.
> 
> ...


Which is the reason to not really pay attention to long range models other than to see if you can skip town for a day. Not two, because if you've been doing this long enough, you know anything more than about 18 hours out, and you can be caught with your pants down.

Or the opposite happens, and like our last storm that had some models showing 6-12" in my area, even the night before, I ended up with 1/2".


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## UniqueTouch (Dec 25, 2013)

yea us in jersey aint getting notta no time soon. el nino or whatever it is called means now artic air coming down from cananda unfortunately gonna be all rain this year and next yall. no expert but im always right on weather


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## LwnmwrMan22 (Jan 20, 2005)

You east coasters done digging out yet??


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## unit28 (Jan 1, 2007)

Probably done with digging lobsters out of the dungies


This thread is useless. .....


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## ljbev (Dec 17, 2001)

*k*

sign me up!!!!!!


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## Evil Diesel (Nov 9, 2011)

unit28;2092660 said:


> Probably done with digging lobsters out of the dungies
> 
> This thread is useless. .....


I totally agree. I wish people wanted us to squeegee water of there driveways!!!!


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## Randall Ave (Oct 29, 2014)

Well its Jan 10, I'm sitting here watching old movies, got the window open. Early spring is my guess.


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## mkwl (Jan 21, 2005)

Randall Ave;2092737 said:


> Well its Jan 10, I'm sitting here watching old movies, got the window open. Early spring is my guess.


Yup- relaly not seeing anything promising in the next 10 days… at this point if it's just going to get cold and be dry then get warm and rain I'd rather it just get warm and bring an early spring.. this weather pattern really $uck$


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## BUFF (Dec 24, 2009)

LwnmwrMan22;2092576 said:


> You east coasters done digging out yet??


If they were they'd be b!tching aboot it:laughing::laughing:


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## Evil Diesel (Nov 9, 2011)

BUFF;2092783 said:


> If they were they'd be b!tching aboot it:laughing::laughing:


Wow buff. Everyone is laughing there ass off. Not really. This thread is being beaten like a dead horse


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## 1olddogtwo (Aug 6, 2007)

Perhaps he got the dates wrong.....

I'm sure the storm will happy at some point.


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## peteo1 (Jul 4, 2011)

Got about 3/4 of an inch. Lake effect warnings and a variety of other warnings too. Pretty much just a bunch of wind here and thats it


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## iceyman (Mar 1, 2007)

Itll come eventually.. Last year didnt really start for us in jerzy til 1/24 then we went nuts


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## Freshwater (Feb 28, 2014)

Anybody need to borrow a shovel?


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## Randall Ave (Oct 29, 2014)

In the near future my prediction is many plows for sale on CraigsList.


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## BUFF (Dec 24, 2009)

Evil Diesel;2092786 said:


> Wow buff. Everyone is laughing there ass off. Not really. This thread is being beaten like a dead horse


Lighten up......... we b!tch aboot no snow or too mulch.


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