# NOV 30 to DEC 16 the overall PATTERN does NOT look good for cold/ snow in eastern Conus; here is why.



## wxdavid (Dec 22, 2015)

The news is not very good with respect to the weather pattern the first 15 days of December east of the Mississippi River (and for that matter probably east of the Rockies). This may come as a bit of a surprise to some because one of my better-known competitors (Joe Bustardi) last week was mentioning in his various videos... blogs…. and tweets that December 2021 was shaping up to look just like December 1995. For those of you that don't recall December 1995 was a fairly active early start to the winter for the eastern half of the CONUS. (\the entire winter of 1995-96) had several historic eastern US snowstorms.

Unfortunately that sort of mindless hype and Hysteria doesn't really do people who are serious about snow any good. To be sure... forecasting early severe Winters (which is what Bustardi does almost every winter) generates lots of snow weenies and weather nuts interest clicks and sales. But the downside to that sort of thing is that it increases public skepticism with regard to forecasts beyond the next few days.

keep in mind that when I am talking about the next 14-18 days I am NOT predicting the actual path of a particular LOW Pressure area or where the heaviest snow is going to fall 5 days or 7 days from now . Instead what I am talking about is the general overall trend.

Snowstorms and Ice storms and winter cold do not appear suddenly in one area for no reason. The large-scale patterns in North America and western hemisphere have to be situated the right way.

Sometimes the overall pattern will favor areas such as the West Coast... the Pacific Northwest…. the northern Rockies … and southwest Canada with cold and snow.

Sometimes the large-scale patterns across North America will favor the upper Plains and the Upper Midwest and perhaps the Great Lakes.

And sometimes the overall large-scale weather patterns will favor the Northeast US or perhaps Tennessee Valley and SE states.

*There are 11 types of jet stream pattern/ configurations that meteorologists look at in trying to figure out when the overall pattern is going to become favorable or unfavorable for certain portions of the country. These particular jet stream pattern configurations are referred to as teleconnections.*

In North America, there are f FOUR of them that we focus on. 
Some of them you may have heard of before. they are
The AO / Arctic oscillation/ The Polar Vortex

* The NAO*/ North American oscillation/ The Greenland Block

*The EPO/ * the Eastern Pacific Oscillation / Alaska- Siberia

*The PNA /* Pacific North America pattern / West Coast Ridge

In the eastern third of the country the ideal teleconnection pattern that you want for a big or even moderate snowstorm is this: - AO /- NAO/ -EPO/ +PNA

For the Plains and Midwest the ideal teleconnection pattern that you want for a big or even moderate snowstorm is this: - AO /+ NAO/ -EPO/ +PNA

For the West Coast and the Rockies the ideal teleconnection pattern that you want for a big or even moderate snowstorm is this: - AO /+ NAO/ -EPO/ -PNA

This first image shows the trend from the various weather models for the next 2 weeks out to the middle of December for the AO and NAO. As the chart shows you can see that both of these features are strongly POSITIVE for the next two weeks. This is the exact opposite of what you want to see in forecasting cold and snow for the eastern half of the CONUS









Image #2 shows the trend from the various weather models for the next 2 weeks out to the middle of December for the EPO and PNA. As the chart shows you can see that both of these features are moderate to strongly POSITIVE for the next two weeks. This is the exact opposite of what you want to see in forecasting cold and snow for the eastern half of the CONUS .


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## wxdavid (Dec 22, 2015)

Two last points and then the science lecture is over. 

First of course it is possible between now and the middle of December a surprise event COULD develop which might impact the Great Lakes… Northern New England or perhaps the Dakotas. But with respect to the overall trend and the idea of something significant or major occurring…. that seems very unlikely given the current data.

During the next several days we are going to have to watch these different teleconnections and see if they change. It is possible they could during the next two weeks. Indeed there is some indication that the pattern may change in a big way after say December 18th or 20th but that's very tentative right now


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## Mark Oomkes (Dec 10, 2000)

Weird...we've plowed twice and salted 3 times since Saturday.

https://www.mlive.com/weather/2021/...r7iim4GalfEIqzimhcq7xioEVqMrVhBuN5iHNJeuIOSGw


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## Mountain Bob (Nov 12, 2017)

You get pretty far "in depth", more so than usually holds my attention, but seem to be on the mark. We usually get snow first week of speed goat hunting season,we did, 30". As we almost always get 4-12" first week of June. Right now,all is melted, in the 50's, yet we should have 12-15" permanet,for the winter,at this elevation. Slow winter start,4th or 5th year in a row. What we have seen here is winter shifting, later start yet more snow in april and may. Tilt of the earth and solar,I would suspect.


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## Philbilly2 (Aug 25, 2007)

Question... 

will there be enough snow in northern Wisconsin after Christmas for snowmobiling?


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## cwren2472 (Aug 15, 2014)

Philbilly2 said:


> Question...
> 
> will there be enough snow in northern Wisconsin after Christmas for snowmobiling?


He is ONLY predicting for the NEXT 14-16 days. After CHRISTMAS is more THAN 25 days AWAY so we do NOT know THAT yet.

Best not make TRAVEL plans JUST YET.


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## Philbilly2 (Aug 25, 2007)

cwren2472 said:


> Best not make TRAVEL plans JUST YET.


TO late... TRAVEL plans ARE already SET


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## cwren2472 (Aug 15, 2014)

Philbilly2 said:


> TO late... TRAVEL plans ARE already SET


oh DAMN.


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## Western1 (Dec 4, 2008)

Philbilly2 said:


> Question...
> 
> will there be enough snow in northern Wisconsin after Christmas for snowmobiling?


Yes


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## Philbilly2 (Aug 25, 2007)

Western1 said:


> Yes


Deer season closed and they started rolling Monday night...


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## m_ice (Aug 12, 2012)

Philbilly2 said:


> Question...
> 
> will there be enough snow in northern Wisconsin after Christmas for snowmobiling?


Question...

Will there be snow in Central Illernoiz Dec. 27,28,29? My kid has football camp out of state and I'd like to not be a dead beat dad and be there.


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## Mark Oomkes (Dec 10, 2000)

More snow showers (for now) this weekend.


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## Mark Oomkes (Dec 10, 2000)

Ho lookie there...it's snowing again.


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## cwren2472 (Aug 15, 2014)

Mark Oomkes said:


> Ho lookie there...it's snowing again.


Is not. I just looked outside.


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## Mark Oomkes (Dec 10, 2000)

cwren2472 said:


> Is not. I just looked outside.


Wow...guess I was told.


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## wxdavid (Dec 22, 2015)

MARK

it is NOT that you were told. Or lying. Or maybe you did see snow showers.

The point is what I actually which I see you ignored. I mean you seem to have made it your job to harass attack smear the science and/or any post I might make.

what I said was

_...." of course it is possible between now and the middle of December a surprise event COULD develop which might impact the Great Lakes… Northern New England or perhaps the Dakotas. But with respect to the overall trend and the idea of something significant or major occurring…. that seems very unlikely given the current data..."_

snow showers are not significant or major.


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## wxdavid (Dec 22, 2015)

TEMP ANOMALIES DEC 1-7 FOR CONUS


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## Mark Oomkes (Dec 10, 2000)

Brrrr

So warm we can't finish fall cleanups because it keeps snowing.


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## wxdavid (Dec 22, 2015)

yeah sure it is.


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## Mountain Bob (Nov 12, 2017)

Still cold here.


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## Hydromaster (Jun 11, 2018)

https://www.plowsite.com/threads/non-se-michigan-weather-thread.161771/page-1126#post-2551793


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## wxdavid (Dec 22, 2015)

verified for eastern CONUS


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