# january Part 1



## FISHERBOY (Aug 13, 2007)

Well in case some you haven't noticed a lot of winter forecasts have busted badly. The cause has been a strong negative QBO. 
The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is a quasiperiodic oscillation of the equatorial zonal wind between easterlies and westerlies in the tropical stratosphere with a mean period of 28 to 29 months. The alternating wind regimes develop at the top of the lower stratosphere and propagate downwards at about 1 km (0.6 mi) per month until they are dissipated at the tropical tropopause. Downward motion of the easterlies is usually more irregular than that of the westerlies. The amplitude of the easterly phase is about twice as strong as that of the westerly phase. At the top of the vertical QBO domain, easterlies dominate, while at the bottom, westerlies are more likely to be found.
What a lot of private forecasters were predicting was the QBO would fall in November, and December, and it hasn't. There all scratching their heads, its gone against over 70 year of data: Above average Siberian snowfall in October, would suggest a -AO(Polar Vortex being displaced) --NAO, (50/50 low) both are key to getting large east coast snowstorms


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