# Mid-West Winter Predictions?



## mullis56 (Jul 12, 2005)

Anyone heard any yet?


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## albhb3 (Dec 18, 2007)

Heck Im as good as a weather man/woman. I can be full of **** so here it goes... I say that the twin cities metro will come in at around 48in.


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## Mick (May 19, 2001)

mullis56;784775 said:


> Anyone heard any yet?


Temps will be colder or warmer than average. There may or may not be snow which may be more or less than average.

$55,000 salary, please.


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## Luther (Oct 31, 2007)

Mick;784872 said:


> Temps will be colder or warmer than average. There may or may not be snow which may be more or less than average.
> 
> $55,000 salary, please.


This is an extremely accurate prediction........my money's on this one.  

Worth every penny!


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## redman6565 (Jul 14, 2008)

check back in january, 2010 and i'll let you know


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## redman6565 (Jul 14, 2008)

besides, i wouldn;t put much behind any weather predictions outside of a day or two.


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## mullis56 (Jul 12, 2005)

Farmer's Alamanc has been better and nearly head on last 3-4 years for us! Mick - your check went out today, will come from DM, Inc., so be on the lookout for it! $55K is cheap for the forecasters here, might use you again! LOL!!! That is about what they are like here too! They are guessers here and always guess wrong.


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## redman6565 (Jul 14, 2008)

don't you wish you could be paid to be wrong all the time too? forget to salt a parking lot or just tell your customer you thought it was going to be sunny and 35 so it didn't need to be plowed, then turn in a bill lol


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## albhb3 (Dec 18, 2007)

try 6 figs


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## Snow Day (Aug 23, 2008)

Looking like an El Nino at this point!


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## Bporter (Aug 29, 2007)

EL Nino is that alot of snow or a little


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## Snow Day (Aug 23, 2008)

With this past weather patterns we have been having this summer, i wouldnt doubt another crazy winter again. I cant say for sure, but the Eastern United States could see more snow then last winter


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## 2COR517 (Oct 23, 2008)

redman6565;784932 said:


> check back in january, 2010 and i'll let you know


I'll wait till March 31, 2010


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## T-MAN (Jan 9, 2001)

Snow Day;786028 said:


> With this past weather patterns we have been having this summer, i wouldnt doubt another crazy winter again. I cant say for sure, but the Eastern United States could see more snow then last winter


Do you think they could see less ?


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## smoore45 (Oct 27, 2007)

I think this will be anyones best guess:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/produc...ason/13_seasonal_outlooks/color/churchill.php


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## tls22 (Sep 30, 2007)

I hate to say it but if the strong el-nino and east base develops every1 east of the Mississippi is going to be in trouble......we want a weak-mod el-nino west based to set-up. Right now its warming at a alarming rate......we just need to watch it......i hope this does not screw us


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## mullis56 (Jul 12, 2005)

I hope it is a good one! Time will tell....2007/2008 was a crazy sleet/ice year for us and it was El Nino right?


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## Snow Day (Aug 23, 2008)

Actually it was very weak La Nina and more so Neautral winter


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## tls22 (Sep 30, 2007)

mullis56;786180 said:


> I hope it is a good one! Time will tell....2007/2008 was a crazy sleet/ice year for us and it was El Nino right?


Snowday is right is was a la nina/netural....last el nino was in 2006-2007.....that winter sucks for every1 until febuary when we got some good snow. 2002-2003 was a weak el nino. My area got rock with close to 70 inches that year. Its just a wait and see........they should kno more by the end of august. No matter what type of el-nino develops look out denver....then are going to get a bunch of snow this winter


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## cretebaby (Aug 23, 2008)

tls22;786291 said:


> Snowday is right is was a la nina/netural....last el nino was in 2006-2007.....that winter sucks for every1 until febuary when we got some good snow. 2002-2003 was a weak el nino. My area got rock with close to 70 inches that year. Its just a wait and see........they should kno more by the end of august. No matter what type of el-nino develops look out denver....then are going to get a bunch of snow this winter


If we get another winter like '06-'07 I am quitting now. :realmad:


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## CountryChevy15 (Jul 4, 2009)

anyone have any guesses for this winter?


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## scottL (Dec 7, 2002)

El Nino, la Nada. It's a red hearing or better said El Nino is a reaction to sun spots.


Slightly earlier winter, colder and if the water vapor has the lift much more snow.


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## CountryChevy15 (Jul 4, 2009)

scottL;787236 said:


> El Nino, la Nada. It's a red hearing or better said El Nino is a reaction to sun spots.
> 
> Slightly earlier winter, colder and if the water vapor has the lift much more snow.


sounds like a good season to start plowing for my self instead of someone else


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## scottL (Dec 7, 2002)

CountryChevy15;787242 said:


> sounds like a good season to start plowing for my self instead of someone else


I should have referenced my comments from another post I made...... This is the time when folks will crawl out from under a rock to low ball and bid on stuff they have no ability to deliver on thus also driving down the wages further. On the flip you'll see many companies and cities not paying up. Ultimately I think a lot of folks who believe they will hit pay dirt will end up holding the debt and no reward.


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## CountryChevy15 (Jul 4, 2009)

scottL;787255 said:


> I should have referenced my comments from another post I made...... This is the time when folks will crawl out from under a rock to low ball and bid on stuff they have no ability to deliver on thus also driving down the wages further. On the flip you'll see many companies and cities not paying up. Ultimately I think a lot of folks who believe they will hit pay dirt will end up holding the debt and no reward.


the lowballing problems is why im getting business lined up early


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## awl1973 (Jul 13, 2009)

What was the total amout of times you all had to go out last year if you had to ball park it? Trying to find out how many times i schould figure on going out this year to get a bid together. Is this oct-feb or nov-march. Plan on Renting/leasing skid steer and purchasing one or two trucks depending on how many contracts I get. I am going to think positive and figure it will be close to or more that last year in Chicagoland for this year.


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## scottL (Dec 7, 2002)

it's winter. as much as we plan and use history to predict the future there are no guarantees. depending upon the type of service a client wants/needs your trips out could vary drastically. figure on 60" of snow maybe 30'ish - 40'ish trips out. depends upon what you call a trip out as well.


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## affekonig (Aug 5, 2008)

No, Scott, tell me exactly how many times I'm going to be plowing this year. I need to budget myself now and it depends on you telling my future.


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## scottL (Dec 7, 2002)

affekonig;787713 said:


> No, Scott, tell me exactly how many times I'm going to be plowing this year. I need to budget myself now and it depends on you telling my future.


 Ya got me.


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## jeremey (Jul 16, 2009)

TLS22, what makes you think Denver is going to get nailed? I can only hope you're right - our winter's have been SOOO dry recently :crying:


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## Mark13 (Dec 3, 2006)

CountryChevy15;786413 said:


> anyone have any guesses for this winter?


My guess is that we have light, followed by darkness approximately every 24hrs and it gets cold and we get some snow also. That's my prediction for the winter.


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## awl1973 (Jul 13, 2009)

I wasn't asking for a prediction on the upcoming year. IF you read my question it was asking for what happened last year for my area. I realize each year is different and if someone like the weatherman cant get the weather right for the week, well noone can predict the whole winter. Just getting into the snow biz I like the idea of seasonal bids so I know that my overhead and expenses are covered. So if I have to work my ass off for the money I'm looking at making it is going to be the best profit margin I ever had. Thanks Scott for at least an Idea of what to expect it was helpfull.


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## T-MAN (Jan 9, 2001)

awl1973;790003 said:


> I wasn't asking for a prediction on the upcoming year. IF you read my question it was asking for what happened last year for my area. I realize each year is different and if someone like the weatherman cant get the weather right for the week, well noone can predict the whole winter. Just getting into the snow biz I like the idea of seasonal bids so I know that my overhead and expenses are covered. So if I have to work my ass off for the money I'm looking at making it is going to be the best profit margin I ever had. Thanks Scott for at least an Idea of what to expect it was helpfull.


Its a real tuff market in this area. Seasonals can sink a company in one season too. Dont put all your eggs in one basket.


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## scottL (Dec 7, 2002)

Interesting topic. How does one balance risk to reward when crafting bids..... As a whole I believe most folks look at snow plowers as a lower species. But, if they stopped and thought about how much goes into the concept of 'pushing snow' it's really amazing.

You've got the business side; taxes, marketing, paper work, etc. Then administration; scheduling, filings, communications, billings, etc. Then logistics; equipment, efficiency approaches, materials and supply, etc. People skills, manager, bidding, budgeting, weatherman, risk analysis, etc. etc etc

Yeah ... I suppose it's really just pushing snow - how hard could it be?  I put a small business owner with 3-4 years of experience up against any ivy league political lap dog in Washington any day of the week and we would would do a better job.


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## tls22 (Sep 30, 2007)

jeremey;789763 said:


> TLS22, what makes you think Denver is going to get nailed? I can only hope you're right - our winter's have been SOOO dry recently :crying:


storm track favors u. It has a active southern branch, and with ur elevation its not that hard to get snow. Look for it to come early and often


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## tls22 (Sep 30, 2007)

T-MAN;790045 said:


> Its a real tuff market in this area. Seasonals can sink a company in one season too. Dont put all your eggs in one basket.


If i was a owner of a plowing company in ur area t-man i would go half seasonals and the other half per push...this way ur covered in a non-snowy year and makin money if you have a block buster year.(2007-2008)


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## xtreem3d (Nov 26, 2005)

in st. louis .this has been our 3rd coolest july on record..i recently heard the same for some in the east..that being said a couple of our weathermen are saying that the most recent "cool" spell in july was 1976 and they are relating our coming winter ( not sure they're reasoning yet) to the winter of 1976. i googled our weather history and it was about the fourth snowiest winter on record...guess we'll see


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## 2COR517 (Oct 23, 2008)

T-MAN;790045 said:


> Its a real tuff market in this area. Seasonals can sink a company in one season too. Dont put all your eggs in one basket.


Good advice. I've got a mix. 20 storms and I pull as much revenue from my per push as my seasonals. Even so, I wouldn't mind 25-30 storms.


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## 2COR517 (Oct 23, 2008)

scottL;790055 said:


> : I put a small business owner with 3-4 years of experience up against any ivy league political lap dog in Washington any day of the week and we would would do a better job.


I couldn't agree more. And now we have a president with no actual job experience on his resume. Think he even knows how to check the oil in his car?


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## scottL (Dec 7, 2002)

2COR517;790525 said:


> I couldn't agree more. And now we have a president with no actual job experience on his resume. Think he even knows how to check the oil in his car?


Nope. in his world it's not a car it's an executive limousine including the silver spoon he was born with.


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## awl1973 (Jul 13, 2009)

I hear you T-Man, but the numbers don't lie and have tripple checked them. The only overhead I have for labor is the Guys I hire from Labor Network for shoveling. Even If I have to use or purchase double the salt I still come out way ahead. The other company we are taking over for charged 190,000 to plow and salt one parking lot for a Jewel and two out buildings for the poperty owners. To me that is a hell of a lot of money, I can pay off all my equipment in one season and overhead and still make more than working for anyone else at $15-20 an hr all year long. Our equipment is also being used in the off season for the property maintenance co. I don't know if I'm trying to convince myself, but this site has opened my eyes to a hell of a lot of info. and helping me to make sure that i don't screw up to bad. Most of the guys and gals on this site have proved to be helpfull and educational. I also have a for sure contract for 18 properties but not sure if I want to bite off to much the first year. I know if anyone out there that want's to work with me and get the bid I'm all ears. IF I had the eqipment I would do it all myself but cant afford to add that much all at once, baby steps that is.


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## scottL (Dec 7, 2002)

awl1973;790569 said:


> I hear you T-Man, but the numbers don't lie and have tripple checked them. The only overhead I have for labor is the Guys I hire from Labor Network for shoveling. Even If I have to use or purchase double the salt I still come out way ahead. The other company we are taking over for charged 190,000 to plow and salt one parking lot for a Jewel and two out buildings for the poperty owners. To me that is a hell of a lot of money, I can pay off all my equipment in one season and overhead and still make more than working for anyone else at $15-20 an hr all year long. Our equipment is also being used in the off season for the property maintenance co. I don't know if I'm trying to convince myself, but this site has opened my eyes to a hell of a lot of info. and helping me to make sure that i don't screw up to bad. Most of the guys and gals on this site have proved to be helpfull and educational. I also have a for sure contract for 18 properties but not sure if I want to bite off to much the first year. I know if anyone out there that want's to work with me and get the bid I'm all ears. IF I had the eqipment I would do it all myself but cant afford to add that much all at once, baby steps that is.


Sure .... What is your contact info? I'll entertain a cross bid.


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## Wayne Volz (Mar 1, 2002)

*Who knows?*

I guess will have all figured it out. I have also decided that i am going to use my college degree when I retire from this business and be a weatherman.

I honestly believe that most of these forecasters get a commission from the grocery stores.


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## sumner_services (Aug 1, 2009)

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2009/20090709_elnino.html

check it out


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## scottL (Dec 7, 2002)

What a great NOAA story. I particularly like the part about how they are helping emergency managers and protecting life and liberty with their early warning dart of accuracy in claiming an el nino. Sure there has been a trace of this natural occurrence, much like last year. Let's all get down in the cellar. 

El Nino is a jet stream shape shifter when strong enough. It can cause bubbles in a natural flow. They have been trying to predict the next big El Flopo for a few years now. Been wrong soo often, about as often as the hurricane prediction center has been for years now. Hmmmmm, if they correlate the sunspots they may get some accuracy. On the side note we are at an all time recorded solar minimal, ever.


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## mullis56 (Jul 12, 2005)

So is it a STRONG EL NINO? Moderate or weak?


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## scottL (Dec 7, 2002)

mullis56;791939 said:


> So is it a STRONG EL NINO? Moderate or weak?


It's basically an underwater reading the navy took of a whale taking a wee-wee


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## mullis56 (Jul 12, 2005)

Seriously what is it shaping up to be currently? Strong, moderate or weak?


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## Young Pup (Aug 13, 2004)

mullis56;792030 said:


> Seriously what is it shaping up to be currently? Strong, moderate or weak?


Check out this thread on a weather forum that is pretty accurate.

http://skyeyeweather.com/Weather_Forum/index.php?showtopic=3568

JP


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## Mid-Ohio Scaper (Aug 17, 2008)

From what they're saying in that forum, it looks to be a classic 70's winter.


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## mullis56 (Jul 12, 2005)

Young Pup - thanks for posting!


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## 3311 (Oct 10, 2007)

Mid-Ohio Scaper;792160 said:


> From what they're saying in that forum, it looks to be a classic 70's winter.


That would be greatly appreciated


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## Mid-Ohio Scaper (Aug 17, 2008)

3311;792260 said:


> That would be greatly appreciated


I couldn't agree more!!!!!


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## Young Pup (Aug 13, 2004)

mullis56;792162 said:


> Young Pup - thanks for posting!


Your Welcome.


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## mullis56 (Jul 12, 2005)

Are those guys reliable or are they a bunch of snow lovers like us?


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## Young Pup (Aug 13, 2004)

The owner of the website is wxluvr, Chief Meteorologist Rich Apuzzo. Also the forum has other certified meterologists as well that frequent. But the site also has some very knowledgeable folks that really know their stuff as well but are not certified. A couple right off is Tron777, PhrOz3n,Severe. Many more there as well, frequent it more and you will soon see that this group of weather lovers know their stuff. When a storm is coming my way, I am over there on a daily basis getting the latest and looking at maps and models as well. Join in over there and see for yourself what a great group guys/gals that is there.


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## T-MAN (Jan 9, 2001)

awl1973;790569 said:


> I hear you T-Man, but the numbers don't lie and have tripple checked them. The only overhead I have for labor is the Guys I hire from Labor Network for shoveling. Even If I have to use or purchase double the salt I still come out way ahead. The other company we are taking over for charged 190,000 to plow and salt one parking lot for a Jewel and two out buildings for the poperty owners. To me that is a hell of a lot of money, I can pay off all my equipment in one season and overhead and still make more than working for anyone else at $15-20 an hr all year long. Our equipment is also being used in the off season for the property maintenance co. I don't know if I'm trying to convince myself, but this site has opened my eyes to a hell of a lot of info. and helping me to make sure that i don't screw up to bad. Most of the guys and gals on this site have proved to be helpfull and educational. I also have a for sure contract for 18 properties but not sure if I want to bite off to much the first year. I know if anyone out there that want's to work with me and get the bid I'm all ears. IF I had the eqipment I would do it all myself but cant afford to add that much all at once, baby steps that is.


Only thing I am saying is cya with some per push. Enough so you dont work for free if we get hammered. If you can, keep the salt out of seasonal price too. Per application at least will cover expenses if we have another year like 07-08. Contracts were for 45", we got 90".
I took a good beating that year, stacked heavy with seasonal work, zero tolerance, salt included. We were out seemed like every day, with day time storms the norm. Many would go all day, so you pushed/salted 3 times and still had to go back and plow and salt again that night. The labor and fuel bills added up quick. Then the salt piles ran dry, and I had to truck salt in from Ohio, so my salt prices tripled too. 
I dont think I ever worked so hard, for so little in my life. I had the same attitude that season as you, how can I lose 
Now its 50/50 (or enough seasonal to cover expenses), last year was great


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## hydro_37 (Sep 10, 2006)

Heard today the upper Iowa is in for a long very nice fall.
Had crap for a summer so a nice fall is fine with me.


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## cretebaby (Aug 23, 2008)

hydro_37;795094 said:


> Heard today the upper Iowa is in for a long very nice fall.
> .


We are going to need a long dry fall with this late, wet corn crop we got right now.

I predict a wet fall with a early winter with a snowy late November and early December.


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## Longae29 (Feb 15, 2008)

I was "up north" last weekend by my relatives that are farmers, we were shucking corn to freeze, and I heard something said about the amount of silk on the corn means a cold winter. I didnt really pay that much attention because theres something every year that tells them its going to be cold or snowy winter.


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## Mid-Ohio Scaper (Aug 17, 2008)

Longae29;795102 said:


> I was "up north" last weekend by my relatives that are farmers, we were shucking corn to freeze, and I heard something said about the amount of silk on the corn means a cold winter. I didnt really pay that much attention because theres something every year that tells them its going to be cold or snowy winter.


Probably because it's Minnesota. They always have a cold winter.


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## Peterbilt (Apr 28, 2007)

I think its going to be a lack luster year. I am hoping for 12 to 15 total plowable events. Hopefully a good late november shot to start the season out. (We are due for one) and hopefully get a couple real early march dumpers as well.


But over all, no where near what we have had the last 2 seasons, but more than the 2 seasons before that.

J.


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